Last Updated on agosto 19, 2026 11:27 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC returns to Sacramento for the first time in more than seven years, and it has given the local man the main event.
Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez is a NorCal fighter getting his first UFC home game, and he arrives needing it. An eight-fight win streak (his first loss since May 2020 was still ahead of him) ended in February when Sean Strickland stopped him in a fight that would have delivered a title shot. Across from him is Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues, three straight wins, two of them one-punch knockouts, and the heaviest hands in the division.
Hernandez opened at -147. The market has since pushed him closer to -170. That drift is the fight in a sentence: the bookmakers believe in the volume, and they are still nervous about the power.
Thirteen fights, a co-main between two former middleweights who have both moved up to 205 and both arrive on two-fight skids, and a heavyweight prospect making his debut eleven days after winning his contract.
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UFC Fight Night Sacramento: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Anthony Hernandez -147 | Gregory Rodrigues +120 |
| Vitor Petrino -235 | Serghei Spivac +200 |
| Reinier de Ridder -350 | Roman Dolidze +285 |
| Mason Jones -225 | MarQuel Mederos +190 |
| Carli Judice -400 | Jeisla Chaves +330 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu -130 | Shamil Gaziev +110 |
| Jackson McVey -500 | Wes Schultz +385 |
| Nasrat Haqparast -110 | Chris Padilla -110 |
| Gauge Young -250 | Stan Dorsainvil +207 |
| Lerryan Douglas -225 | Jamall Emmers +190 |
| Shanelle Dyer -500 | Elise Reed +385 |
| Marcio Barbosa -1000 | Ryan Kuse +661 |
| Anthony Wint -1400 | Terrance Chatman +836 |
| Quando? | Saturday, August 22. Prelims at 5:00 pm ET, Main Card at 8:00 pm ET |
| Onde? | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ in the United States, TNT Esportes in the United Kingdom |
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Por que apostar em Anthony Hernandez?
Hernandez won eight in a row before February. That is not a soft streak; it is the reason he was one win from a title shot at 185 pounds, and the reason he has now been booked in three consecutive main events and four of his last five.
The advantage is pace and volume. Hernandez fights at a rate almost nobody at middleweight can sustain, chaining takedown attempts to relentless top pressure and forcing opponents to work in every second of every round. Nine of his professional wins are submissions. He does not need one moment to go his way; he needs the fight to get long.
This is also a five-round fight in his own backyard, in a building that will be loud for him from the walk. Rodrigues has been to the championship rounds once and was stopped in the fourth.
The Strickland loss deserves context rather than dismissal. Hernandez ran into a focused former champion making a statement. It ended a five-year unbeaten run; it did not reveal a structural flaw.
Por que apostar em Gregory Rodrigues?
Rodrigues is one of the strongest men in the weight class and hits harder than anyone Hernandez has faced.
The three-fight streak is built on exactly what beats a pressure fighter: single-shot power. He has one-punch knockouts over Jack Hermansson and Brunno Ferreira on that run. Against a man who comes forward in volume and closes distance to grapple, the openings arrive early and often.
At 34, he is fighting for the biggest win of his career and a place in the thick of the middleweight chase. That is the version of Rodrigues who tends to show up.
At +120, he is close to a pick’em price against a top-15 opponent who was knocked out in his last appearance. The line has moved away from him, which makes the number better than it was.
Final Betting Analysis: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
This is a genuine stylistic clash, and the old rule applies; when it ends tells you how it went.
If Rodrigues wins, it happens inside two rounds. If Hernandez wins, it is because he survived the opening exchanges, got the fight to the mat, and turned it into the kind of grinding five-rounder that has defined his career. There is very little middle ground.
FREE PICK: Hernandez by decision. He has been stopped once already this year, and the man across from him ends fights with one shot, so the straight moneyline is not where the value sits. This fight going past two and a half rounds strongly favours the home fighter.
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Serghei Spivac
Por que apostar em Vitor Petrino?
Petrino is 3-0 since moving up to heavyweight and has looked like a different fighter.
He began his UFC run at light heavyweight, won four straight, then was stopped by Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby; losses that had as much to do with brutal weight cuts as with the opponents. The move up solved that. He added a unanimous decision over Steven Asplund in March to the two finishes he collected last year.
At -235, the market is backing the fresher, healthier fighter against a veteran who has lost more than he has won lately.
Por que apostar em Serghei Spivac?
The “Polar Bear” has been a fixture in the heavyweight rankings for five years and is the most experienced opponent Petrino has met since the move up.
Spivac is 7-4 since the start of 2021 with five of those wins inside the distance, and the formula is consistent: a strong grappler who gets on top and makes opponents carry his weight until they break. He comes in off a decision over Ante Delija that snapped a two-fight skid.
The relevant history is that Petrino has faltered in exactly this spot twice before. Both of his losses came against seasoned veterans brought in to test him.
Final Betting Analysis: Vitor Petrino vs. Serghei Spivac
This is the classic veteran litmus test, and Petrino has failed it twice.
The counter is that both failures came at 205 pounds while he was draining himself to make weight. At heavyweight, he has looked physically fine and has yet to be troubled.
FREE PICK: Spivac at +200. Petrino probably wins, but this is one of the few live dogs on the card. If the fight hits the floor with the Moldovan on top, it does not come back.
UFC Fight Night: Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze
Por que apostar em Reinier de Ridder?
De Ridder is 21-4, a former two-division ONE champion, and 8-1 across his career at light heavyweight. This is a return to the division where he has always been at his best, not an experiment.
His finish rate is 86%. Before the recent slide, he won five straight in the UFC, including a split decision over former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and a first-round submission of Kevin Holland at UFC 311.
The losses are explicable. He tried to squeeze a fifth fight into twelve months and turned in a flat performance against Brendan Allen in Vancouver, then lost to Caio Borralho at UFC 326 before declaring he was finished with middleweight. A full camp at a natural weight is a meaningful change.
Por que apostar em Roman Dolidze?
Dolidze is 15-5 with a 73% finish rate, and he has done this before; his UFC run began with two wins at light heavyweight before a six-year, twelve-fight stint at 185.
The Georgian is genuinely powerful and says he feels considerably stronger back at 205. His most recent light heavyweight appearance was a decision win over perennial contender Anthony Smith at UFC 303.
At +285, he is a large price for a fighter with his experience and power against an opponent who has lost two in a row.
Final Betting Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze
Both men are on two-fight skids, and both have moved up. Only one leaves Sacramento with momentum; the other enters the final stretch of 2026 with his back against the wall.
De Ridder’s grappling is the deciding factor. Dolidze’s route is landing something heavy early, which he is entirely capable of doing, but over three rounds the submission threat is constant and one-directional.
FREE PICK: de Ridder by submission. The -350 is steep for a straight play, but his two most recent losses came at a weight he has now abandoned, and the light heavyweight record speaks for itself.
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos
Por que apostar em Mason Jones?
“The Dragon” has won seven straight dating back to the end of his first UFC stint, including all three fights since returning, with two post-fight bonuses along the way.
He is also effectively the home fighter here; a frequent training visitor at Team Alpha Male and an adopted Sacramento man. His reputation is built on being a hard-nosed battler who drags opponents into knock-down, drag-out fights, which is precisely the sort of night a technical counter-striker does not want.
Por que apostar na MarQuel Mederos?
Mederos is unbeaten in ten straight overall and 3-0-1 in four UFC starts since earning his contract on Season 7 of the Contender Series.
He is the more technical and judicious striker, and his problem has been circumstance rather than performance; bouts spaced far apart and repeated opponent changes have stopped him from building momentum. His last outing was a draw with short-notice replacement Chris Padilla at UFC 327.
Final Betting Analysis: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos
The whole fight is whether Mederos can keep it technical.
Jones wins by making it ugly. Mederos wins by staying disciplined at range and refusing to trade. Given that Jones has spent seven consecutive fights successfully dragging people into his fight, the burden sits with Mederos.
FREE PICK: Jones at -225. The crowd, the streak, and the style all point one way.
UFC Fight Night: Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves
Por que apostar em Carli Judice?
“Crispy” has been the more proven fighter for a while now. She took two wins and two performance bonuses through 2025 and followed it with a unanimous decision over Juliana Miller in February in a hard-fought battle.
The Louisiana native has slick hands and fights forward with high output. Against an opponent who is still developing, sustained pressure and volume are a reliable formula.
Why Bet on Jeisla Chaves?
Chaves is undefeated and has a habit of surviving exactly the kind of close, contested fight this profile suggests. She earned her contract in a debated decision and repeated the trick in her promotional debut in June.
The 29-year-old Brazilian is admittedly still a little green, and she compensates by being entirely willing to stand in the pocket and sling hands.
Final Betting Analysis: Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves
Two promising talents in the deep 125-pound division, and the gap in seasoning is the story.
Chaves has repeatedly proven she can bank rounds in tight fights. She has not yet faced someone with Judice’s output.
FREE PICK: Judice. The -400 is expensive for a fight between two young talents where one has never lost. Chaves at +330 is the sort of price that occasionally pays.
UFC Fight Night: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev
Por que apostar em Kennedy Nzechukwu?
Nzechukwu opened his heavyweight run with two first-round stoppages, dispatching Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski, and the power is not in question.
At 34, he has clear physical tools and has been ranked before. In a division where two decent wins put you back in the top 15, the upside is real.
Por que apostar em Shamil Gaziev?
Gaziev announced himself with a stoppage of Martin Buday on debut, which fast-tracked him into a main event in only his second outing.
He has since won two and lost two, and the losses came against more seasoned and dangerous opposition than he had previously faced. That is a fighter who was promoted quickly rather than one who has been exposed.
Final Betting Analysis: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev
Worth flagging: this line has moved further than any other on the card. Nzechukwu opened at -130 and has since drifted, with some books now installing Gaziev as the favourite around -148. That is a full flip.
Both men are trying to arrest a slide. Nzechukwu was heel-hooked by Valter Walker and then fought Marcus Buchecha to a draw in December. Gaziev has dropped two in a row. Neither can afford another.
The recurring criticism of Nzechukwu is that he struggles to stay in the flow of a fight; long stretches pass without him doing much, and at heavyweight that invites disaster. Gaziev’s issue is cardio; he retired on his stool after four rounds in that main event.
FREE PICK: Gaziev. The line has flipped toward him since opening, and in a fight this unpredictable, movement is the most reliable signal available. Stake small or leave it alone entirely.
UFC Fight Night: Jackson McVey vs. Wes Schultz
Por que apostar em Jackson McVey?
McVey has a 100 percent finishing rate, and he preserved it last time out by making relatively quick work of Sedriques Dumas for his first UFC win.
The MMA Lab representative is the more explosive fighter and, at -500, the market regards the gap as substantial.
Why Bet on Wes Schultz?
Schultz is durable and persistent. After losing his debut in February, he chased a submission relentlessly through his next fight and finally clamped on a fight-ending guillotine in the third round to get into the win column.
That is a fighter who does not fold when the first plan fails, and against an opponent whose entire record is finishes, surviving early is the whole game.
Final Betting Analysis: Jackson McVey vs. Wes Schultz
Two American middleweights who both broke through for their first UFC win last time out.
McVey finishes everyone he beats. Schultz proved he can grind through adversity and still find a submission late. The question is simply whether Schultz makes it out of the first ten minutes.
FREE PICK: McVey inside the distance. The -500 moneyline offers nothing. The finish markets are where the price makes sense.
UFC Fight Night: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Chris Padilla
Por que apostar em Nasrat Haqparast?
Haqparast carried a five-fight winning streak into his short-notice meeting with Quillan Salkilld at UFC 321 last October, and had been finished only once in fifteen previous UFC appearances before that night.
He is the more experienced fighter by a distance and returns for the first time this year with a full camp behind him, which is exactly what he did not have in Abu Dhabi.
Por que apostar em Chris Padilla?
Padilla is unbeaten through five UFC starts and is one of the most unheralded fighters in the lightweight division.
His most recent outing was a majority draw with MarQuel Mederos at UFC 327; taken on short notice, against an unbeaten opponent, and he was arguably closer to winning than losing.
Final Betting Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Chris Padilla
A genuine pick’em at -110 apiece, and the market has it right.
The case for Haqparast is class and experience. The case against is that his last appearance ended in a first-round head-kick knockout, and he has not fought since. Ten months out after being stopped is a real variable.
Padilla is unbeaten but has not beaten anyone at Haqparast’s level.
FREE PICK: Padilla at -110. Activity and momentum matter, and Haqparast is returning from both a ten-month layoff and a bad knockout.
UFC Fight Night: Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil
Por que apostar em Gauge Young?
Young knows exactly what his opponent is walking into, because he has been there. He started his own UFC tenure as a late replacement and lost that hustled debut to Evan Elder.
He has responded with consecutive decision wins over Maheshate and Thiago Moises; the second of those a genuinely useful scalp. He is the only man in this fight with UFC experience.
Why Bet on Stan Dorsainvil?
Dorsainvil arrives 5-0 with four finishes, three of them in the opening round. He steps in for the injured Kody Steele.
Short-notice debutants with that kind of finishing rate are dangerous in the first five minutes, before the occasion and the pace catch up with them.
Final Betting Analysis: Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil
The role reversal is the story; the man who debuted on short notice is now the established one.
Young’s two wins have both gone to decision, which suggests he is content to manage a fight rather than force it. That is the right approach against an opponent whose danger is concentrated early.
FREE PICK: Young at -250. Debut nerves, no camp, and an opponent who knows how to make rounds long is a difficult combination.
UFC Fight Night: Lerryan Douglas vs. Jamall Emmers
Why Bet on Lerryan Douglas?
Douglas debuted in March and stopped Julian Erosa in the first round. Erosa is a durable, experienced featherweight, and doing that on debut is a statement.
He is the fresher fighter and is being asked to prove the debut was not a one-off.
Por que apostar em Jamall Emmers?
Emmers is the established gatekeeper of the 145-pound division in the best sense — experienced, dangerous, and a genuinely stiff test for anyone climbing.
That is a role he has held for years, and fighters in it tend to be badly underpriced against prospects with one good performance.
Final Betting Analysis: Lerryan Douglas vs. Jamall Emmers
A prospect-versus-veteran fight where the veteran is priced as the underdog on the strength of one debut win.
Douglas has real momentum and finishing ability. Emmers has faced better and has never been easy to remove.
FREE PICK: Emmers at +190. The best value on the card. Douglas may well win, but the price gap does not reflect the experience gap.
UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed
Why Bet on Shanelle Dyer?
Dyer lost a competitive battle to Carol Foro on the Contender Series and earned a contract anyway. She then explained why, knocking out Ravena Oliveira in March in London.
The British prospect is making her second appearance of the year and is clearly on an upward curve.
Por que apostar em Elise Reed?
Reed is a former CFFC champion and has been in the UFC long enough to know what these nights require. She is 4-5 through nine appearances.
The pattern in that record is worth noting; she has alternated results the entire way through. She is coming off a loss, and she has not won since the autumn of 2024.
Final Betting Analysis: Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed
A prospect on the way up against a veteran trying to arrest a slide.
Dyer has power and momentum. Reed has experience and a curious habit of following a loss with a win.
FREE PICK: Dyer. The -500 is unbackable, but she should win. Reed’s alternating pattern is a fun statistic rather than a betting strategy.
UFC Fight Night: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse
Por que apostar em Marcio Barbosa?
Barbosa is on a run of five consecutive first-round finishes, the most recent an 80-second knockout of Dennis Buzukja on his UFC debut in Winnipeg in April.
Five straight fights that have not reached the second round is not a stylistic quirk. It is who he is.
Why Bet on Ryan Kuse?
Kuse is 9-2 and has won each of his last two MMA appearances, with a couple of Karate Combat bouts scattered in between. He fights out of The Goat Shed in Miami.
He is here on short notice, which is the entire reason the price is what it is.
Final Betting Analysis: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse
At -1000, this is the shortest price on the card behind the main-card debutant, and the reasoning is obvious.
Barbosa has not seen a second round in five fights. Kuse took this on short notice against a man whose only mode is early violence.
FREE PICK: Barbosa inside the first round. The moneyline is unplayable. The round-one market is where this fight lives.
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman
Why Bet on Anthony Wint?
Wint bulldozed Matt Adams to close Week 1 of Contender Series Season 10 on August 11, and he is fighting again eleven days later. He is 7-0 with six finishes.
Heavyweight prospects with that kind of raw force get moved quickly for a reason, and at -1400 the promotion and the market clearly expect him to keep rolling.
Why Bet on Terrance Chatman?
Chatman is 5-1 with four stoppage wins and comes in off a first-round finish by leg kicks in July. He trains with the 4oz. Fight Club in Houston.
He is also making his UFC debut, which levels one part of the equation; neither man has fought in the Octagon before.
Final Betting Analysis: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman
Two debutants, and a price that says one of them is a genuine prospect and the other is an opponent.
The variable nobody can price is the turnaround. Wint fought on August 11. Fighting again eleven days later at heavyweight, with the adrenaline of a contract win behind him, is hard to dismiss.
FREE PICK: Wint, but do not bet it. At -1400, there is no value. If you like Chatman’s leg kicks and the short-turnaround angle, +836 is a lottery ticket with an actual argument attached.
Free Picks Summary
Main Card
- Anthony Hernandez (by decision)
- Serghei Spivac +200 — best underdog play
- Reinier de Ridder (by submission)
- Mason Jones
- Carli Judice
- Shamil Gaziev (small stake, or skip it)
Preliminares
- Jackson McVey (inside the distance)
- Chris Padilla
- Medidor Jovem
- Jamall Emmers +190 — best value on the card
- Shanelle Dyer
- Marcio Barbosa (inside round one)
- Anthony Wint (do not bet it)
Final Card Outlook
Thirteen fights, and the card is built on a clear divide: a main event that is genuinely close, and an undercard stacked with heavy favourites.
The best fight: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues. Volume against power, five rounds, a hostile home crowd, and no obvious way for it to be dull.
The best value: Jamall Emmers at +190. A proven featherweight gatekeeper priced as a dog against a fighter with one UFC appearance.
The one to avoid: Nzechukwu vs. Gaziev. The line has flipped since opening, and both men are fighting to stop a slide. That is a coin toss dressed as a fight.
The safest lean: Marcio Barbosa inside the distance. Five straight first-round finishes tell you what to expect.
The card’s real story is Sacramento itself. The UFC has not been here in more than seven years; the main event is a local fighter in his first home game, and the co-main is two former middleweights finding out whether 205 pounds gives them a second act. Golden 1 Center will be loud from the opening prelim.
Prelims start at 5:00 pm ET. The main card follows at 8:00 pm ET on Paramount+.
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