NFL: Surprise Teams After Two Weeks

Last Updated on setembro 24, 2026 4:56 pm by Erwin Noguera

Seattle are 2-0, and their Super Bowl prize has not moved a single point.

Minnesota are also 2-0, and their prize has moved from +5000 to +3000.

That gap is what a surprise is. Eight teams are unbeaten, and eight are winless, but most of those records are the market being right rather than the market being shocked. The futures board tells you which is which, and it is a better guide than the standings.

Here are the teams that have genuinely changed the picture in two weeks, and the ones whose starts only look dramatic.

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The Market’s Own Surprise List

Super Bowl LXI odds and how far they have moved since Week 1.

The Rams remain the outright favorite at +650, unchanged, and the conference prices have not moved either; the NFC is still favored at -120, the AFC at +100.

The Real Surprise Is Minnesota

2-0, a 100% cover rate, and first in the NFC.

The Vikings went from +5000 to +3000, the sharpest correction on the board among mid-tier teams, and the underlying numbers say the market was slow rather than reactive.

The defense is the story. Minnesota is allowing 12.5 points per game, generating 4.0 sacks per contest, and holding opponents to a 27.3% drive success rate. Their +23-point differential comes from 48 scored and 25 allowed, and both of their wins are division games.

The 9-3 win over Chicago looked like an ugly afternoon. It was a defense suffocating an opponent, and it happened to be the week Caleb Williams went down.

Why this counts as a surprise: nobody had Minnesota as the best team in the NFC after two weeks, and the price is still adjusting toward what the performance says.

San Francisco Have the Best Numbers in Football

+42-point differential, 62 scored, 20 allowed. The largest margin in the league.

The 49ers are 2-0, have covered both, and shortened from +1400 to +1100. They average 31.0 points e 380.5 net yards with an 87.5% red-zone touchdown rate, while conceding 10.0 points and holding opponents to a 22.2% drive success rate.

They beat the Rams and the Dolphins by a combined 44 points, and Brock Purdy completed 20 of 22 passes in the second of those.

Why it is only a partial surprise: San Francisco were always expected to be good. What nobody expected was the most complete two-week stretch in the league, on both sides of the ball, by this margin.

Las Vegas Are 2-0, and Nobody Has Noticed

The quietest unbeaten team in football.

The Raiders shortened from +15000 to +12500, still the 25th-shortest price on board, which tells you how little the market believes it. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns in a 26-14 win at the Chargers, and Las Vegas have now won at SoFi in the same month Arizona did.

This is a genuine surprise, and it is being priced as a fluke. Two wins do not make a contender, and a +12500 prize says the books expect regression. But a 2-0 start in the AFC West, with the Chiefs the only other team above .500 in the division, is worth more than the board suggests.

The Chargers Are the Story of the Season

+2500 to +5000 in seven days. The single biggest collapse in value on the board.

Los Angeles is 0-2 with two home defeats, scoring fourteen points in each. They have a -24-point differential, um 0% cover rate, and an offence averaging 14.0 points em um 17.4% drive success rate com five giveaways.

The cause is the offensive line. It has already surrendered six sacks, and the injury situation across the starting lineup has gone from manageable to severe. Justin Herbert got Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back this season, and the protection has collapsed anyway.

We have to own this one. We picked the Chargers to win the AFC West and placed Kansas City third, outside the playoffs. The Chiefs are 2-0, shortened from +1600 to +1200, and lead the NFL in net yards at 457.5 per game. The Chargers are 0-2, and their price has doubled out. Both halves of that call are now indefensible.

Atlanta Have Scored Sixteen Points

In two games. Combined.

The Falcons are 0-2 with a -38-point differential, the worst in football. They have allowed 54 and scored 16, which is a league-worst 8.0 points per game. They have thrown five interceptions and converted 0.0% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.

Their price drifted from +12500 to +20000, and the description in the market notes is blunt: banged-up personnel on the offensive line and at the skill positions have left the offence unable to sustain drives.

Atlanta opens Week 3 tonight at Lambeau, where Green Bay are 7-point favorites.

Washington and Chicago: Surprises Caused by One Player Each

Washington went from +8000 to +15000 after falling to 0-2 and losing Jayden Daniels to an elbow injury that will sideline him. The supporting numbers are grim on their own (30.5 points and 325 yards allowed per game, a 55.0% opponent drive success rate, and zero takeaways), but the price moved on the quarterback.

Chicago went from +2200 to +4000 despite being 1-1, entirely because Caleb Williams was forced out in Week 2. Their +16-point differential still looks stable, which is exactly why the drift is instructive: the market is not pricing what the Bears have done; it is pricing who will play quarterback next.

Both are real surprises. Neither is really about football.

The Records That Are Not Surprises

This is the part most two-week reviews get wrong.

Miami are 0-2 and their price has not moved at all: still +100000, unchanged. A team with a 3.5-win total and the second-hardest schedule in the league losing its first two games is not new. It is projection work.

Tennessee (+75000) and Arizona (+30000) have also not moved. Arizona beat the Chargers in Week 1 and lost 31-7 in Week 2; the market has decided those cancel out, which matches what we wrote at the time.

Indianapolis is 0-2 and unchanged at +8000. They lost to Baltimore and then took Kansas City to overtime on the road. A winless record that includes a three-point overtime defeat to the AFC’s best team is not a collapse.

Seattle is 2-0 and unchanged at +1100. The defending champions won without their starting quarterback, and the board shrugged. That is the market saying it already knew.

And the Giants are unchanged at +5000 after beating Dallas and then losing 28-6.

Where the Two Weeks Leave Us

The top tier is the Rams, Bills, and Ravens, with five teams at +1500 or shorter. Baltimore is the only one of those three who have lost, hovering from +850 to +1000 after the home defeat to New Orleans.

Buffalo is the interesting price at +750. They average 38.5 points and 427.5 net yards with a 75% red-zone touchdown rate and concede 31.0 points per game. A +15 differential from a team scoring that means the defense is a genuine problem the market is currently ignoring.

Cleveland shortened from +75000 to +50000, which is the least glamorous positive move on the board and the only one belonging to a team we projected at 5-12.

O que assistir

Whether Minnesota’s defense holds. Allowing 12.5 points a game across two division wins is the most impressive two-week stretch by any unit in football. It is also two games.

Whether the Chargers’ line gets healthy. Their season rests on it, and the schedule does not wait.

Whether anyone prices the Raiders properly. 2-0 at +12500 is either the market being sensible or the best long-shot value on board.

And whether Buffalo fixes the defense. Scoring 38.5 a game hides a lot until January, when it stops hiding anything.

Eight teams are unbeaten, and eight are winless. Only about half of those records surprised anyone paying attention in August, and the futures board, not the standings, is where you can tell the difference.