Last Updated on outubro 14, 2026 9:46 pm by Erwin Noguera
Joaquin Buckley won six straight at welterweight. Then Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady out-wrestled him in consecutive UFC fights.
Mike Malott is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt on a four-fight winning streak, and he is bigger than Buckley.
That is the entire fight. The division found a problem with the No. 10 welterweight, and the UFC has matched him against a man made to exploit it, in front of a Canadian crowd, in the arena where Malott’s current run started two years ago.
Eleven of the thirteen fighters’ home nations on this card read Canada. This is the UFC’s fourth visit to Edmonton and the first since November 2024.
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UFC Fight Night 291 Edmonton: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Joaquin Buckley (#10) (+120) | Mike Malott (#13) (-140) |
| Erin Blanchfield (#4) (-300) | Jasmine Jasudavicius (#6) (+240) |
| Kyle Nelson (+240) | Cristian Perez (-300) |
| Marc-Andre Barriault (+185) | Kyle Daukaus (-225) |
| Louis Jourdain (-205) | Timmy Cuamba (+170) |
| Mandel Nallo (-250) | Nate Landwehr (+205) |
| Tanner Boser TBD | Jhonata Diniz TBD |
| Julien Leblanc TBD | Nick Galanti TBD |
| Javad Mahjoub TBD | Joel Faglier TBD |
| Katlyn Cerminara TBD | Mackenzie Stiller TBD |
| Chad Anheliger TBD | Steven Koslow TBD |
| Melissa Croden (#14) TBD | Chelsea Chandler TBD |
| Cody Chovancek TBD | SuYoung You TBD |
| Quando? | Saturday, October 17 — prelims 5:00 PM ET, main card 8:00 PM ET |
| Onde? | Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ in the United States; Sportsnet and TVA Sports in Canada |
UFC Edmonton: Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
Why Bet on Buckley?
He is one of the hardest punchers at 170 pounds, and the six-fight run that got him here was not soft. Buckley beat Andre Fialho by head kick, Alex Morono, Vicente Luque by TKO, Nursulton Ruziboev, Stephen Thompson by third-round knockout at UFC 307, and Colby Covington by doctor stoppage.
The physical part matters more than it looks. Buckley is listed at 5-foot-8 with a 76-inch reach. Malott is 6-foot-1 with a 73-inch reach. The smaller man has three inches of reach, which means Buckley can punish entries from outside without having to be the one closing distance.
And Malott’s only UFC defeat was a stoppage on the feet: a third-round TKO against Neil Magny at UFC 297. The power is a live threat in all five rounds.
Why Bet on Malott?
Four straight wins, and the most recent one is the credential: a third-round stoppage of Gilbert Burns in April, in his first UFC main event, worth a $100,000 bonus. Before that, he beat Trevin Giles, knocked out Charles Radtke, and outpointed Kevin Holland.
He is a jiu-jitsu black belt who spent years coaching striking at Team Alpha Male. That is an unusual combination (the grappling credential plus a genuine striking background), and it is why he can finish fights both ways.
He is also the bigger man, fighting at home, on his sixth consecutive start on Canadian soil, in the building where this streak began two years ago.
Final Betting Analysis: Buckley vs. Malott
The UFC’s own preview is blunt about the pattern: Buckley was out-wrestled in both of his losses and can be taken down and controlled. Usman did it over five rounds in June 2025; Brady did it over three at UFC 328 in May.
The counter-argument is real and worth stating.Malott is not the wrestler Usman or Brady is. If Buckley stuffs the first few entries, this starts to look like the version of him that won six in a row.
But that is a conditional case, and Malott’s is not. Bigger man, longer streak, more ways to score across 25 minutes, home crowd. Buckley’s path requires his power to land before the grappling does.
At -140, Malott is priced as a modest favourite in a fight where the stylistic advantage is clear. That is not a generous number, but it is the right side.
FREE PICK: Mike Malott by decision.
UFC Edmonton: Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Why Bet on Blanchfield?
One comparison settles most of this fight. Both women have faced Manon Fiorot. Jasudavicius was stopped by Fiorot in the first round. Blanchfield went the full twenty-five minutes with her and lost a decision.
Blanchfield is 14-2, 8-1 in the UFC, a jiu-jitsu black belt with submission wins over Tracy Cortez, Jessica Andrade and Molly McCann. Ela bateu Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision the last time the UFC was in Edmonton, e avenged her disputed loss to Cortez at UFC 322.
At 27 and ranked fourth, she is the better fighter on every measure except availability.
Why Bet on Jasudavicius?
Blanchfield has not fought since November 2025 and is returning from injury. The co-main is itself a rebooking: this exact matchup was scheduled for UFC 330 in August, and Blanchfield withdrew hurt. Eleven months out is a long time for a grappler.
Jasudavicius has won six of her last seven, including a third-round submission of Ariane da Silva on the previous Edmonton card that won Performance of the Night, and a decision over Karine Silva in April.
And there is genuine bad blood. Jasudavicius handed Fátima Kline (Blanchfield’s main training partner and close friend) her first career loss, and the Niagara Top Team fighter has not been shy about mentioning it.
Final Betting Analysis: Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius
-300 is a big number, and the Fiorot comparison justifies most of it. The two are physically close (Jasudavicius is three inches taller at 5-foot-7 with the same 68-inch reach), so this is about skill rather than frame.
The only real argument against Blanchfield is the layoff, and at 37 Jasudavicius does not have time to wait for a better opportunity. Alexa Grasso is the clubhouse leader for the next title shot, which means the winner here is making a case rather than booking a date.
FREE PICK: Erin Blanchfield by decision. No stake at -300.
UFC Edmonton: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Perez
Why Bet on Nelson?
He is 17-7-1; he has done well in his last two appearances on Canadian soil, and he has won four of six.
The Frevola result was strange and instructive. In Vancouver last October, Nelson appeared to stop Matt Frevola in the opening round; the referee allowed the fight to continue, and Nelson held serve the rest of the way. That is a veteran handling an officiating mistake without unravelling.
He failed against Terrance McKinney in March, but he arrives as the experienced measuring stick in a fight against a man who has never walked to the Octagon.
Por que apostar em Perez?
15-2 with twelve finishes in fifteen wins, split evenly between knockouts and submissions. The 27-year-old trains out of The Goat Shed in Miami and earned his roster place at the second attempt, stopping Logan Paxton in the second round after losing to Manoel Sousa the previous season.
“Puas” had considerable success under the Combate banner, and the market has noticed: he is a -300 favourite making his UFC debut.
Final Betting Analysis: Nelson vs. Perez
-300 on a debutant against a veteran with more than a dozen Octagon appearances, on that veteran’s home continent, is a price built on projection more than evidence.
Perez may well be the better fighter. He has not yet proved it at this level, and the single most common mispricing in MMA betting is a Contender Series graduate against a durable gatekeeper.
Nelson’s floor is high. He has been stopped, but he has also absorbed a lot, kept working, and the venue has suited him.
FREE PICK: Kyle Nelson at +240, the best value on the main card.
UFC Edmonton: Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus
Why Bet on Barriault?
Fight of the Night bonuses in each of his last two outings. The 36-year-old from Gatineau, Quebec, is in his eighth year on the roster and has been one of the division’s most reliably entertaining fighters for all of it.
And the style matchup favours him more than the records do.The thing Daukaus has historically struggled with is exactly what Barriault does best: closing distance quickly and making a fight frenetic.
Why Bet on Daukaus?
He opened his second UFC run with rapid stoppages of Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert. That is two quick finishes against real opposition.
The Nickal loss is the obvious mark against him (a first-round stoppage at UFC Freedom 250), but it came against one of the division’s most highly regarded prospects.
The record argument is decisive.Barriault has one win in his last six outings, and he lost both of those Fight of the Night performances on the scorecards. Entertaining and losing is still losing.
Final Betting Analysis: Barriault vs. Daukaus
-225 is fair rather than generous, and that is the honest verdict. The board has the form right: one win in six against a man with two quick finishes in his last three appearances.
Barriault backers are paying for durability and a home crowd. Both are real. Neither is worth the thirty-two percent the price implies against these recent results.
FREE PICK: Kyle Daukaus by TKO.
UFC Edmonton: Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba
Why Bet on Jourdain?
He arrives on a four-fight winning streak, having claimed his roster spot with a third-round submission over Magno Dias on the Contender Series.
He is also the second Jourdain to reach the UFC (brother Charles is already an active competitor), and the stylistic difference is worth knowing. Louis is more fundamentally focused and direct, whereas Charles is fluid and flashy. For a debut, fundamentals travel better than flash.
Why Bet on Cuamba?
He has five UFC appearances, and Jourdain has none.
And the record is better than it reads. Cuamba is 2-3 overall but 1-1 since settling at bantamweight; both of his first two defeats came up at lightweight and featherweight, at the wrong weight entirely. He looked crisp beating Chang Ho Lee last November before losing to Benardo Sopaj.
The other factor is rust. Jourdain has been sidelined for just over a year.
Final Betting Analysis: Jourdain vs. Cuamba
This is the right first assignment for Jourdain, and the market has priced it that way at -205. Cuamba is a known quantity who will test a debutant without overwhelming him.
A twelve-month layoff into a UFC debut is the live risk, and Cuamba at +170 is a reasonable price on that specific scenario. But Jourdain is the better prospect and the more complete fighter.
FREE PICK: Louis Jourdain by decision.
UFC Edmonton: Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr
Why Bet on Nallo?
He is 14-4 with one no contest, and he has never once seen the scorecards. In eighteen professional fights, he has been past the first round only five times.
The Tristar Gym product had Jai Herbert on the ropes in his debut and got caught and finished himself, a fight he will want back, and one that showed both the danger and the recklessness.
Against a 38-year-old moving up a weight class after 26 fights at featherweight, that profile is a strong one.
Why Bet on Landwehr?
“The Train” is an all-action veteran and a bonus magnet, and he has stopped more experienced men than Nallo in worse positions.
That is the entire positive case, and it has to be set against this: Landwehr is on a three-fight skid and has been finished in every one of those defeats. He is 38 and moving to lightweight after a long featherweight career.
Final Betting Analysis: Nallo vs. Landwehr
This fight will not need judges and both profiles say so. The UFC’s own preview says it plainly: it will be chaotic, exciting, and probably short.
Landwehr at +205 is not value.A price around thirty-one percent on a fighter coming off three consecutive stoppage losses, moving up in weight at 38, is not low; it is accurate.
FREE PICK: Mandel Nallo by TKO.
UFC Edmonton: Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz
Why Bet on Boser?
He lives about two and a half hours northeast of the arena, in Bonnyville, Alberta. This is his second UFC start on home soil this year and the closest thing to a true hometown fight on the card.
He is rebounding from a loss to Gokhan Saricam in Winnipeg in April, which is recent but is also recent, Boser has been active.
Why Bet on Diniz?
He has the fresher legs by default, having not fought since losing to Mario Pinto last October in Rio de Janeiro.
And he has unfinished business in this building.His scheduled bout with Derrick Lewis on the last Edmonton card was cancelled after both men had already weighed in. A fighter who cut weight and never walked tends to arrive focused the second time.
Final Betting Analysis: Boser vs. Diniz
No line is posted, which on a heavyweight prelim is itself informative; the books are waiting for Friday.
A twelve-month layoff is a genuine disadvantage at heavyweight, where timing and conditioning degrade fastest. Boser has been in the Octagon this year; Diniz has not been in one since last October.
Heavyweight makes any pick fragile: one clean shot settles it regardless of who was better prepared. But the activity gap and the venue both point the same way.
FREE PICK: Tanner Boser by decision.
UFC Edmonton: Julien Leblanc vs. Nick Galanti
Why Bet on Leblanc?
He was a genuine standout on the Canadian regional circuit for years, and this is a second chance at home after a debut that went badly.
That debut is the whole problem.Leblanc was overwhelmed in April in Winnipeg and finished in the first round. The case for him is that regional pedigree plus a home crowd produces a better version than the one that showed up for ninety seconds in Manitoba.
Why Bet on Galanti?
He earned his contract with a 35-second stoppage just over seven weeks ago, pushing his winning streak to six.
He is also the short-notice man here, having tapped in for Gilbert Urbina, and the UFC’s own preview heading still carries Urbina’s name, which tells you how late the change came. Replacement fighters on this card have a way of arriving sharper than the men they replace.
Final Betting Analysis: Leblanc vs. Galanti
One fighter was finished in the first round on debut. The other finished a man in 35 seconds to earn his place. That is not a complete picture of either man, but it is the only UFC-adjacent evidence available.
A debut on seven weeks’ notice is a real concern, and Leblanc’s regional record is better than his one Octagon appearance suggests.
The momentum is entirely on one side, though, and at this level momentum against a man coming off a first-round loss usually holds.
FREE PICK: Nick Galanti by TKO.
UFC Edmonton: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier
Why Bet on Mahjoub?
An Olympic judoka who competed on the IOC Refugee Olympic Team in 2020, now 5-0 as a professional with four of those wins by first-round stoppage.
He trains at Tristar Gym in Montreal, and the combination of elite-level grappling credentials with a first-round finishing rate is the most interesting profile on the prelims.
Why Bet on Faglier?
He is also unbeaten, at 6-0, and he has one more professional fight than his opponent.
At 25, he is the younger man, and his most recent win came against a UFC veteran; he beat Cody East in February, which is a better-quality scalp than anything on Mahjoub’s record.
He is also the replacement here, stepping in for Louis Sutherland.
Final Betting Analysis: Mahjoub vs. Faglier
Two unbeaten heavyweight newcomers, which makes this the hardest fight on the card to price and the reason no line exists.
The separator is the grappling. Olympic-level judo at heavyweight is a weapon almost nobody at this stage of a career has an answer for, and four first-round finishes from five fights suggests Mahjoub does not need long to apply it.
Faglier’s win over Cody East is the better single result. Mahjoub has the better single skill.
FREE PICK: Javad Mahjoub by submission.
UFC Edmonton: Katlyn Cerminara vs. Mackenzie Stiller
Why Bet on Cerminara?
She is a former title challenger and the only fighter in this bout who has competed at the top of a UFC division.
She has not fought since UFC 299 and is returning from having her first child, a long absence, but one with a clear and non-degenerative reason behind it.
Against a short-notice debutant moving up a weight class, experience is the entire argument, and it is a strong one.
Why Bet on Stiller?
6-1 with five submission finishes, which is a striking ratio.
She is a TUF 34 alum who fought on Team Bisping, e ela replaces the Canadian Jamey-Lyn Horth here, stepping up a division to take a UFC debut on short notice, which takes a particular kind of confidence.
The honest mark against her: she lost in the opening round of the TUF competition to Delphine Benouaich.
Final Betting Analysis: Cerminara vs. Stiller
A returning former title challenger against a short-notice debutant fighting above her natural weight. On paper, this is the most lopsided prelim on the card.
The complication is the layoff and its cause. Returning from childbirth is not the same as returning from injury, and nobody outside the camp knows which version of Cerminara arrives.
Five submissions in six wins means Stiller has a path if the fight hits the mat.But she is giving up size, experience, and preparation time all at once.
FREE PICK: Katlyn Cerminara by decision.
UFC Edmonton: Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow
Why Bet on Anheliger?
He fights out of Calgary, and he was competitive in his last outing, losing a close decision to TUF alum Cody Gibson on the previous Edmonton card.
His layoff is the shorter of the two by a wide margin. Anheliger has been out nearly two years. Koslow has been out since December 2022.
Why Bet on Koslow?
He is coming back from the first loss of his career, a short-notice assignment against Cameron Saaiman at UFC 282, and an undefeated fighter who lost once on short notice is not the same as a fighter who was found out.
Nearly four years away is either a disaster or a reset, and at bantamweight the time off may have cost him less than it would at heavier weights.
Final Betting Analysis: Anheliger vs. Koslow
Both men are returning from extended absences, which makes this the least predictable fight on the card and explains the absence of a line.
Anheliger’s hiatus is roughly two years. Koslow’s is approaching four.That gap is the only hard information available, and it points one way.
Anheliger also has the venue: he lost here last time, which is a reason to want it back rather than a reason to doubt him.
FREE PICK: Chad Anheliger by decision.
UFC Edmonton: Melissa Croden vs. Chelsea Chandler
Why Bet on Croden?
This is her fourth UFC appearance in 364 days and her third on home soil. Nobody else on this card is working at that rate.
And the activity has produced results. She won her debut in Vancouver last October e beat Daria Zhelezniakova in Winnipeg earlier this year: the same Zhelezniakova who was a ranked opponent at the time. Croden is ranked No. 14 and rising.
Why Bet on Chandler?
Her most impressive win came in June: a first-round submission of Priscila Cachoeira.
The framing around her is that she is “healthy and refocused”, which is the language of a fighter whose previous results came with asterisks. If that is accurate, this is a different opponent from the one the record describes.
Final Betting Analysis: Croden vs. Chandler
Four fights in 364 days is the most relevant fact in this bout. Fighters in good rhythm beat fighters returning to it, and Croden has been in it for a year.
Chandler’s Cachoeira submission is the single best result either woman owns recently. One first-round finish against a long run of accumulating wins is a genuine question, not a formality.
But Croden is ranked, active, and at home for the third time in a year.
FREE PICK: Melissa Croden by decision.
UFC Edmonton: Cody Chovancek vs. SuYoung You
Why Bet on Chovancek?
Unbeaten in nine professional fights, he earned his contract with a third-round knockout on Contender Series Season 9.
The camp detail is the interesting part.He prepared for this alongside Mike Malott and Jasmine Jasudavicius, the two highest-profile Canadians on the card. “The Best Fisherman in MMA” opens the night for the home side with the best training partners in the building.
Why Bet on You?
He won the Road to UFC Season 3 bantamweight tournament and then his first two UFC appearances. That is a fighter who has already proved he can win at this level, which his opponent has not.
He is 16-4 with twenty professional fights against Chovancek’s nine, and the one recent setback is specific: out-grappled and submitted by Elijah Smith earlier this year.
Final Betting Analysis: Chovancek vs. You
An undefeated debutant against a man with three UFC fights and a tournament win. No line is posted, and the pick comes down to which you weigh more heavily: a perfect record against regional opposition, or a mixed record against UFC opposition.
We take the UFC record. Chovancek’s 9-0 is real, and so is his finishing ability, but You has already won two Octagon fights, and his only defeat came against a specific skill (grappling) rather than being overmatched.
The counter is that the Smith loss exposed exactly how to beat him, and a debutant with Malott and Jasudavicius in his corner will have seen the tape.
FREE PICK: SuYoung You by decision, at a reduced stake. This is the closest fight on the card.
Resumo das Escolhas Grátis
| Lutar | Escolha | Jogar? |
|---|---|---|
| Buckley vs. Malott | Malott by decision | Yes, at -140 |
| Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius | Blanchfield by decision | No stake at -300 |
| Nelson vs. Perez | Nelson at +240 | Melhor custo-benefício do cartão |
| Barriault vs. Daukaus | Daukaus by TKO | Sim |
| Jourdain vs. Cuamba | Jourdain by decision | Sim |
| Nallo vs. Landwehr | Nallo by TKO | Sim |
| Boser vs. Diniz | Boser by decision | No line posted |
| Leblanc vs. Galanti | Galanti by TKO | No line posted |
| Mahjoub vs. Faglier | Mahjoub by submission | No line posted |
| Cerminara vs. Stiller | Cerminara by decision | No line posted |
| Anheliger vs. Koslow | Anheliger by decision | No line posted |
| Croden vs. Chandler | Croden by decision | No line posted |
| Chovancek vs. You | You by decision | Participação reduzida |
Our strongest position is Kyle Nelson at +240. A -300 price on a UFC debutant against a seventeen-fight veteran who has performed on Canadian soil is the kind of number that gets corrected after the fight rather than before it.
Our strongest fades are Blanchfield at -300 and Landwehr at +205. One is a correct side at an uninvestable price; the other is an underdog whose price accurately reflects three consecutive stoppage losses.
Visão geral final do cartão
The main event is a genuine top-fifteen fight, and it turns on one question: has Joaquin Buckley fixed the problem the division already found?
Usman and Brady both out-wrestled him in consecutive fights, and Malott is a jiu-jitsu black belt who is bigger than him. The caveat is that Malott is not the wrestler either of those men is, and Buckley carries three inches of reach and genuine one-punch power. It is a real fight with a clear stylistic logic, which is the best kind to watch and a difficult kind to price.
The co-main may be the better fight.Blanchfield and Jasudavicius have the same 68-inch reach, and both have faced Manon Fiorot; one went twenty-five minutes with her, the other lasted a round. Add a training-partner grudge and a title shot in the middle distance, and there is no part of this that is routine.
The prelims have no betting market at all, which is unusual even for a Fight Night, and the reason is on the card itself: two unbeaten heavyweight debutants, two fighters returning from multi-year absences, a former title challenger back from childbirth, and three replacement bouts booked inside the last few weeks. The books are waiting for Friday, and so should anyone betting them.
The fight to set an alarm for is Nallo-Landwehr.Mandel Nallo has never heard a scorecard read in eighteen professional fights. Nate Landwehr has been finished in each of his last three. It opens the main card, and it will not be there long.
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