MLS Cup Playoffs: First Round Best Matchups

Last Updated on outubro 30, 2026 8:18 pm by Erwin Noguera

Eleven clubs have mathematically secured an MLS playoff place. Six are mathematically out. The other thirteen are still arguing over seven spots, and the seeds decide who plays whom.

Two matchdays remain (this weekend and Decision Day on November 7) with six points available to everybody. Nothing in the bracket is drawn yet. But the format is fixed, and that means the matchups are a function of seeding rather than a draw, so the ties worth circling can already be identified.

On current standings the best first-round tie in the competition is Chicago against Charlotte, two clubs separated by two points with goal differences of plus nine and plus eleven. The most unjust is St. Louis against LAFC, where the sixth seed have a better goal difference than two of the seeds above it and would play two of three matches away from home.

Here is the projected bracket, what is locked, and which of these ties will actually be worth your Saturday.

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Where the Two Conferences Stand

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Six clubs in the East are mathematically through. Five in the West.Three places in each conference are still being fought over, by six clubs in the East and seven in the West.

The Format, Because It Dictates the Matchups

Nine qualify per conference. Seeds 1 to 7 go straight into a Round One best-of-three series. Seeds 8 and 9 meet in a single Wild Card match.

The Wild Card is one game at the eighth seed’s ground, and if it is level after ninety minutes, there is no extra time; it goes straight to penalties.

Na primeira rodada, não é permitido empate. Every match produces a winner, and hosting alternates: Jogo 1 contra o time com a melhor classificação, Jogo 2 contra o time com a pior classificação, Jogo 3 contra o time com a melhor classificação.

The bracket is fixed (1 vs. the Wild Card winner, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5), which is why the seeding fight over the next two weekends is the matchup fight. Conference semifinals and finals are single elimination, and MLS Cup hosting goes to whichever finalist has the better regular-season record.

1. Chicago Fire vs. Charlotte FC — the 4/5 Tie

The best series the format can produce, and both clubs are already qualified.

Chicago is fourth at 52 points with a plus-nine goal difference. Charlotte is fifth on 50 with plus eleven.Two points and two goals of difference separate them, and a best-of-three between sides this close is precisely the fixture the structure was built to create.

Chicago scored 57 and conceded 48. Charlotte scored 59 and conceded 48. There is almost nothing to choose between them on any measure available.

The caveat is that the seeds are not final.Philadelphia is sixth on 47 with the better goal difference of the three at plus twelve, and six points are still available. If Philadelphia overtakes Charlotte, this becomes Chicago against Philadelphia and the 3 vs. 6 tie changes with it. Both participants are locked; the pairing is not.

2. St. Louis CITY vs. LAFC — the Tie the Seeding Gets Wrong

LAFC have a plus-fifteen goal difference. St. Louis have plus eleven. FC Dallas, the second seed, has plus nine.

LAFC would be the away side for two of three matches against a team they are outperforming on margin, and the seed below two clubs are also outperforming.

The reason draws.LAFC have drawn eleven of thirty-two (more than any other club in the Western top six), and eleven draws are four fewer points than five wins and six defeats would have been produced from the same fixtures. Fifty scored and thirty-five conceded is the second-best defensive record in the conference behind Vancouver.

This is the same complaint we raised a week ago, and the standings have not corrected it.LAFC are sixth and are not mathematically safe at all; their 47 points sit exactly level with the tenth-placed Galaxy’s maximum of 47.

3. Inter Miami vs. Philadelphia Union — the 3/6 Tie

The two best attacks in the Eastern Conference, if the seeds hold.

Inter Miami scored 75 goals, the most in Major League Soccer.Philadelphia scored 62 and carry a plus-twelve goal difference, the best of any club outside the East’s top three.

Miami’s problem is the other column: 55 conceded, which is more than every Eastern side above ninth except Orlando and Cincinnati.Eleven draws from thirty-two are where their points went, the same affliction as LAFC, in a conference where it cost them less.

A best-of-three between a side that scores 2.3 a game and a side with the division’s seventh-best defense is the most watchable tie in the bracket. It is also the one most likely to be reshuffled, because Philadelphia’s sixth seed is the least secure of the East’s six qualified clubs.

4. Houston Dynamo vs. San Jose — the Contrast

Houston has conceded 39 goals, the fewest in the Western Conference after Vancouver and LAFC. They also scored 42, which is fewer than ten clubs in their own conference.

San Jose have scored 54 and conceded 47.

Fourteen wins, nine draws and nine defeats against thirteen, ten and nine, two points apart, with completely different routes to the same place. Houston is tied with St. Louis on 51 points and separated only on goal difference, so a swing of one result turns this into Houston against LAFC and St. Louis against San Jose.

5. New England vs. Orlando City — the Mismatch

New England is second at 58 points. Orlando is seventh on 43 with a goal difference of minus twelve.

Orlando would be the worst-performing qualifier in the competition on margin and are in the field because they have scored 62 goals while conceding 74.Seventy-four conceded is the worst defensive record in the Eastern Conference. Worse than Montréal’s 66, and Montréal are eliminated with 25 points.

New England’s eighteen wins are the second-highest total in MLS behind Nashville’s twenty-one, and their four draws are the fewest of any Eastern club. They win, or they lose, and they have won far more.

On current numbers, this is the most lopsided tie the bracket would produce. It is also live in both directions: Orlando are not mathematically qualified, and Cincinnati are level with them at 43 points.

The Two Wild Cards Are the Real Coin Flips

One match. No extra time. Penalties if level.

West: 8 Seattle Sounders vs 9 Real Salt Lake, at Seattle.Both clubs have a goal difference of plus one. Seattle are 11-10-11, Real Salt Lake 12-6-14. Salt Lake has more wins and fewer points, which is the clearest case of draws mattering in the entire conference. A single game between two sides with identical margins, decided on penalties if it stays level, is the most volatile fixture in the playoffs.

East: 8 FC Cincinnati vs 9 Columbus Crew, at Cincinnati.Columbus has a plus-three goal difference. Cincinnati has minus seven.The lower seed is the better team on margin and must win on the road to prove it. Cincinnati scored 66 and conceded 73; Columbus scored 52 and conceded 49.

Whichever pair survive, then play Nashville or Vancouver, which is the part the format does not advertise. A Wild Card winner has already played a knockout match before facing the conference’s top seed in a best-of-three.

What Nashville and Vancouver Have Already Banked

Nashville scored 71 points and plus forty-three, thirteen clear of second place, having conceded 23 goals in 32 matches.The next-best defensive record in MLS is Vancouver’s 33, a ten-goal gap, and nobody else in the league is within that range.

Vancouver has 58 points and plus thirty-four, four clear of Dallas.

Both hold the thing that decides December.MLS Cup hosting goes to the finalist with the better regular-season record, and on current standings Nashville would host any final they reach, from either conference.

What neither has bought is a bye.Twelve points of cushion and the best defense in the league still means a best-of-three against a side that has just won a knockout game on the road.

The Honest Caveat

None of these ties exist yet.

Every club has played 32 of 34 matches. This weekend’s round and Decision Day on November 7 will settle seven of the eighteen playoff places and all of the seeding.Six points are available, and the gaps that matter are two, three, and four points wide.

What is already fixed: the eleven qualified clubs, the six eliminated ones, and the bracket structure that turns seeds into fixtures. What is not: which seed each of those eleven ends up holding, and which of the thirteen contested clubs join them.

On the evidence of the last week, the parts most likely to change are the East’s 5/6 line, where Charlotte and Philadelphia are three points apart, and the West’s entire 6-to-9 range, where four clubs sit within five points, and three more can still reach them.

Wild Card matches are on November 18. Round One runs from November 20 to December 2. The conference semifinals are on December 5 and 6, the finals on December 11 and 12, and the MLS Cup is on Friday, December 18.

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