Last Updated on novembro 4, 2026 5:38 pm by Erwin Noguera
The main event you were promised is gone. Sean Brady was forced out with an undisclosed injury; Gabriel Bonfim against Brady is off, and UFC now lists this event as Cortes Acosta vs. Walker.
Two heavyweights stepped in on a week’s notice. Waldo Cortes Acosta opened at -300 and has been bet down to -225. Johnny Walker has gone from +247 to +195; a five-point swing in implied probability toward a man who took the fight on short notice.
And the co-main event is arguably the better fight. Tatiana Suarez, ranked #2, against Virna Jandiroba, ranked #3: two recent title challengers, both grapplers, with the winner next in line at strawweight.
Fourteen fights, a pick on every one of them, and an honest scorecard on the twelve picks we published for last Saturday. We went seven from twelve, and we got the card order wrong.
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UFC Fight Night Las Vegas: Odds e informações do card de lutas
| Waldo Cortes Acosta (-225) | Johnny Walker (+195) |
| Tatiana Suarez (-210) | Virna Jandiroba (+177) |
| Davey Grant (+169) | Elijah Smith (-200) |
| SeokHyeon Ko (-350) | Wellington Turman (+284) |
| Billy Elekana (+189) | Lucas Fernando (-225) |
| Mantas Kondratavičius (-108) | Andre Petroski (-108) |
| Gabriel Lorenco (-230) | Thomas Petersen (+193) |
| Karine Silva (-275) | Gabriella Fernandes (+228) |
| Mitch Raposo (+247) | Marcos Degli (-300) |
| Jose Delano (+157) | Murtazali Magomedov (-185) |
| Keiichiro Nakamura (-325) | Ollie Schmid (+265) |
| Austin Bashi TBD | Lucas Brennan TBD |
| Priscila Cachoeira (+284) | Nina Milošević (-350) |
| Jonny Parsons (+132) | José Souza (-155) |
| Quando? | Saturday, November 7 — Prelims 5:00 PM ET, Main Card 8:00 PM ET |
| Onde? | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ (Estados Unidos) |
UFC Fight Night: Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Johnny Walker
Por que apostar em Waldo Cortes Acosta?
He is the ranked man; he has the better chin, and he is the one with power that travels. Cortes Acosta is #6 in the media rankings and #8 in the Meta rankings, and in January he stopped Derrick Lewis in the second round at UFC 324. MMAOddsBreaker’s reading is that the iron-chinned Dominican has the power to catch Walker on the chin and put his lights out, and that Walker’s durability is the open question in the matchup, which is the reason he opened as a 75% favourite.
Por que apostar em Johnny Walker?
Cortes Acosta has lost his last two fights, both by decision, to Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes, and has slipped out of the top five because of it. Walker arrives on a high: he moved up from light heavyweight at the start of October and knocked out Mick Parkin in his divisional debut at UFC 332, and the UFC’s own preview notes he should have fewer conditioning problems at his new weight.
Final Betting Analysis: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker
The line is the argument. Cortes Acosta opened -300 and is now -225 or -233 depending on the book; Walker has come in from +247 to between +180 and +195. That is roughly five points of implied probability moving toward the man who took the fight on a week’s notice.
We are going to take Walker, and we are going to say plainly why that should make you cautious. Two weeks ago we used exactly this reasoning (the money has moved, take the side it moved to) on Renato Moicano. Moicano was finished in the third round. The heuristic failed, and we are reusing it anyway, because the underlying facts support it independently: a 69% favourite who has lost two straight decisions, against a man coming off a knockout, is a thin price.
FREE PICK: Johnny Walker (+195)
UFC Fight Night: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba
Por que apostar em Tatiana Suarez?
Ranked #2, on a two-fight winning streak, and the better wrestler in a fight between two grapplers. Suarez challenged Zhang Weili for the title at the start of 2025, beat Amanda Lemos last September, and submitted Loopy Godinez in the second round at UFC 327. The UFC’s own assessment is that outside of Zhang, nobody has stifled her grappling well enough to beat her, and her entries and wrestling are described as elite.
Por que apostar em Virna Jandiroba?
Ranked #3 and a title challenger herself, she lost a decision to Mackenzie Dern for the vacant strawweight belt last October in Abu Dhabi before rebounding with a unanimous decision over Tabatha Ricci. At 38, she is the craftier grappler and, per the preview, she can swing a little, which is what keeps a wrestler honest on the entry.
Final Betting Analysis: Suarez vs. Jandiroba
This is the best fight on the card, and the market agrees it is close: -210 against +177, an implied 67.7% to 36.1%.
The usual cliché about grappler-versus-grappler fights is that they turn into bad kickboxing matches. This one will not. Both women are comfortable in the clinch and on the canvas, and the question is whether Jandiroba’s craft off her back neutralises Suarez’s entries for fifteen minutes.
We think it does not, but we think it is closer than 67.7%. Suarez is the pick, and we would not stake it heavily: a fight between the #2 and #3 contenders with championship implications is exactly the profile that goes to a split decision.
FREE PICK: Tatiana Suarez (-210)
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith
Por que apostar em Davey Grant?
Forty years old, seventeenth UFC appearance, three wins in his last four, and a reputation the UFC’s own preview calls a “veteran truth machine.” Grant beat Adrian Luna Martinetti in April and has made a career out of being the fight that tells you whether a prospect is real. He has already beaten one once-beaten Contender Series graduate recently and is being asked to do it again.
Por que apostar em Elijah Smith?
Three straight UFC wins, eight straight overall, and he turned 24 in September. Smith’s run includes a powerbomb finish of Toshiomi Kazama last year, and he is described as a well-rounded ascending talent who has flown under the prospect radar. A win here puts him near the rankings before the year is out.
Final Betting Analysis: Grant vs. Smith
The market has Smith at -200 and Grant at +169, the prospect favoured over the veteran, which is the correct way round for once.
Sixteen years of age difference is the whole fight. Grant is a hard out and a useful measuring stick; he is also 40, in his seventeenth walk to the Octagon, against a 24-year-old on an eight-fight winning streak.
The value case for Grant at +169 is real, and we are passing on it. Three wins in four at that age is admirable, and it is not a trend. Smith, and the under on the distance is the correlated position if you believe the finish comes.
FREE PICK: Elijah Smith (-200)
UFC Fight Night: SeokHyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman
Why Bet on SeokHyeon Ko?
He is the active fighter and the market’s second-biggest favourite at -350. Ko came in with a “Korean Tyson” nickname and a style that turned out to be takedowns and control; he has since changed the nickname to “Technical,” which tells you he knows it. He lost a competitive decision to Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani in July, and Lebosnoyani won last Saturday again, which retrospectively improves that loss.
Por que apostar em Wellington Turman?
He showed real flashes earlier in his career at middleweight, and he is the longer-term professional of the two.
And then the problem. Turman has not fought since December 2023. He was booked to return in Abu Dhabi this summer, and his opponent, Islam Dulatov, was pulled the day before with an illness. That is nearly three years out of competition.
Final Betting Analysis: Ko vs. Turman
-350 is an implied 77.8%, and we think it is roughly right.
Two weeks ago we took Theodor Berggren over Rodrigo Sezinando specifically because Sezinando had been out of action for a year, and we wrote that ring rust is the most reliably underpriced variable in MMA betting. Sezinando won by doctor stoppage in the second round. The heuristic was wrong there, and we are applying it again here, because three years is not one year.
Ko is the pick. The honest caveat is that we are now 0-for-1 this month on inactivity arguments, and this is a bigger version of the same bet.
FREE PICK: SeokHyeon Ko (-350)
UFC Fight Night: Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando
Por que apostar em Billy Elekana?
Three straight wins since a short-notice debut against Bogdan Guskov at UFC 311, most recently submitting Junior Tafa in the second round in February. The 31-year-old is a Las Vegas resident fighting at home, and the UFC describes him as a dark horse in a light heavyweight division that is suddenly deep.
Por que apostar em Lucas Fernando?
He was outstanding on debut. At UFC 330 in August, he battered Rafael Tobias for two rounds and finished him 70 seconds into the third. That extended his winning streak to five with three consecutive stoppages, and he is the market favourite at -225 despite having one UFC fight to Elekana’s four.
Final Betting Analysis: Elekana vs. Fernando
A one-fight UFC veteran favoured at 69.2% over a man on a three-fight Octagon winning streak is the market making a statement about ceilings.
It is usually a statement worth listening to. Fernando’s debut was not a close win against a soft opponent; it was a two-round beating followed by a finish, on the biggest stage available to him. Elekana’s three wins are solid, and none of them looked like that.
We are taking Fernando and flagging the risk honestly:the debut premium cuts both ways, and Elekana has the better sample inside this promotion.
FREE PICK: Lucas Fernando (-225)
UFC Fight Night: Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Andre Petroski
Por que apostar em Mantas Kondratavičius?
9-1 as a professional, with four straight wins, and 27 years old. The Contender Series Class of ’25 graduate came through a grueling debut in March with a unanimous decision over Antonio Trocoli in London.
Por que apostar em Andre Petroski?
He is the tested veteran, and the UFC’s preview makes the case directly:Kondratavičius struggled with his conditioning in that London debut, and Petroski is the kind of fighter who can exploit it if the chance appears. The 35-year-old TUF 29 alum was originally booked against Azamat Bekoev last weekend before the Russian withdrew.
Final Betting Analysis: Kondratavičius vs. Petroski
This is the only true pick’em on the card: both men are -108, both at an implied 51.92%, with a 3.85% hold.
When a market is dead level, the tiebreaker has to be a trend rather than a read. Petroski is on a three-fight losing run. Kondratavičius has won four in a row and is eight years younger.
We take the ascending fighter. The conditioning concern is real, and it is the reason we would not stake this above a half unit: if Petroski drags him into the third round, the fight changes. But a three-fight skid is a more concrete problem than a conditioning question.
FREE PICK: Mantas Kondratavičius (-108)
UFC Fight Night: Gabriel Lorenco vs. Thomas Petersen
Why Bet on Gabriel Lorenco?
Four consecutive first-round finishes and eight straight wins overall. The Brazilian “Black Mamba” won his place on the roster in early September with quick work of Charlie Cleveland on Season 10 of the Contender Series and makes his promotional debut two months later.
Por que apostar em Thomas Petersen?
He has seven UFC appearances to Lorenco’s none, which at heavyweight is worth something. The difficulty is what those seven look like: the UFC’s preview describes him as alternating results the whole way through, and he arrives off a first-round submission loss to Valter Walker in the summer.
Final Betting Analysis: Lorenco vs. Petersen
-230 on a debutant against a seven-fight veteran is a powerful market statement, and the finishing rate explains it.
Four straight first-round finishes is the kind of number that makes books nervous at heavyweight, where one clean shot ends matters. Petersen’s alternating-results pattern means a win last time would have made him dangerous here; instead, he was submitted in the first round.
Lorenco, and expect it early. The caution is the one we wrote on Joe Kropschot’s debut last week and got right: debut premiums at this price are usually about the mechanic, not the name.
FREE PICK: Gabriel Lorenco (-230)
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Por que apostar em Karine Silva?
Ranked #11 and the more proven of the two ranked Brazilians. Silva won her first three UFC fights and shot up the flyweight ladder on the back of them.
Por que apostar em Gabriella Fernandes?
Ranked #14 and on the better run right now. Fernandes faltered at the start of her UFC tenure and has since won three straight, including a technical submission of recent title challenger Wang Cong, a win that looks better every time Wang fights.
And the other half of it:Silva has lost three of her last four.
Final Betting Analysis: Silva vs. Fernandes
The market has Silva at -275, an implied 73.3%, and this is the price on the card we like least.
One of these fighters has won three in a row and beaten a title challenger. The other has lost three of four. The market has the second one as a heavy favourite. The explanation is presumably Silva’s ceiling and her ranking, and rankings lag form by design.
We are taking Silva anyway, and we want to be clear that it is the weakest of our fourteen picks. She is the better fighter on her best night, and Fernandes’s three wins came against softer opposition than Wang Cong’s name suggests. At +228, Fernandes is the live underdog of the evening; if you take one dog on this card, that is the one with the form behind it.
FREE PICK: Karine Silva (-275)
UFC Fight Night: Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli
Por que apostar em Mitch Raposo?
He has found his footing. After two split-decision losses to open his UFC run, Raposo has won two straight on the cards, outworking Azat Maksum in Abu Dhabi last October and edging the late Allan Nascimento in June to reach 11-3.
Why Bet on Marcos Degli?
A thirteen-fight winning streak and a former LFA title. Degli earned his contract with a second-round submission of Paris Moran in late September and is favoured at -300 on debut.
Final Betting Analysis: Raposo vs. Degli
A thirteen-fight winning streak is the number here, and 75% is what the market thinks it is worth against a man whose last two wins were both on the cards.
Raposo’s profile is specific: four of his five UFC fights have gone the distance and two of them were split decisions. He is hard to beat, and he does not finish people. Degli finishes people and has not lost in thirteen fights.
We take Degli, with the observation that Raposo at +247 is the better of the two prices if you think the fight reaches the scorecards because, on the cards, and in close fights, Raposo has plenty of experience.
FREE PICK: Marcos Degli (-300)
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov
Why Bet on Jose Delano?
A five-fight winning streak and 11-1 across his last dozen. Delano beat the game Polish veteran Robert Ruchala by unanimous decision in April and is the more conventionally tested of two promotional sophomores.
Por que apostar em Murtazali Magomedov?
Eleven consecutive wins and a perfect finishing rate to begin his career, and the finish that got him noticed is the one everybody remembers. In June, he submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan with a Scottish twister in his debut.
Final Betting Analysis: Delano vs. Magomedov
-185 against +157 is the second-closest line on the card, and correctly so.
Both men are 1-0 in the UFC, and both arrive on long winning runs. The difference is how they win. Magomedov has finished every professional opponent he has faced; Delano’s most recent win was a decision over a veteran.
A perfect finishing rate through eleven fights is the rarer asset. Magomedov is the pick, and at an implied 64.9%, this is the fairest price on the board.
FREE PICK: Murtazali Magomedov (-185)
UFC Fight Night: Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid
Por que apostar em Keiichiro Nakamura?
He won the Road to UFC featherweight tournament in February, rallying to finish Sebastian Szalay; his eighth straight win and seventh finish. Winning a Road to UFC tournament is the strongest entry credential the promotion offers, and he is -325 on debut because of it.
Por que apostar em Ollie Schmid?
He has already been in the Octagon, and he now has a full camp. Schmid stepped in on short notice in May against Marwan Rahiki, and the City Kickboxing fighter gets his second UFC appearance with proper preparation behind him, which is the single biggest variable between a short-notice debut and a planned one.
Final Betting Analysis: Nakamura vs. Schmid
76.5% on a debutant is a lot, and the Road to UFC résumé is what buys it.
Eight straight wins with seven finishes, culminating in a tournament victory, is a cleaner profile than a short-notice loss followed by a full camp. City Kickboxing is the best argument for Schmid, and it is a real one: the gym does not produce fighters who look lost in their second outing.
Nakamura, and we would take him at the price rather than chase a round or method.
FREE PICK: Keiichiro Nakamura (-325)
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan
Por que apostar em Austin Bashi?
This is the fight the UFC’s own preview left out, and no book we found has priced it, so both cases here rest on less information than the rest of the card.
What we can say about Bashi is that he is on the event page’s official card and has UFC exposure in 2026. We are not going to manufacture a record or a winning streak we have not verified.
Por que apostar em Lucas Brennan?
We have one solid data point on Brennan, and it is a negative one: Francis Marshall beat him in April, in the win that set up Marshall’s featured prelim last Saturday, a fight Marshall then lost by split decision to Dakota Hope.
Final Betting Analysis: Bashi vs. Brennan
No odds exist for this fight in any source we checked, and the UFC’s own fight-by-fight preview omits it entirely while its event page lists it.
Our standing rule is that every fight gets a pick even when there is no line, so here is one, and the honest basis for it is thin. Brennan’s most recent verified result is a loss to Francis Marshall. We have no comparable recent result for Bashi.
On that basis alone, we take Bashi, and we are marking this as the one pick on the page that is a judgement in the absence of evidence rather than a judgement from it.
FREE PICK: Austin Bashi (no line published)
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević
Por que apostar em Priscila Cachoeira?
Fifteenth trip to the Octagon and genuine knockout power. Cachoeira has previous wins over Josiane Nunes (by first-round knockout) and Ariane da Silva, and heavy hands do not leave a fighter at 15 appearances.
Por que apostar em Nina Milošević?
Nine straight wins since losing her professional debut, and a debut performance that turned heads. In Belgrade this summer, she cut through Hailey Cowan with body shots in front of a home crowd.
And the context: Cachoeira is on a three-fight losing run.
Final Betting Analysis: Cachoeira vs. Milošević
-350 on a fighter with one UFC appearance, against a fifteen-fight veteran, is the market pricing the veteran’s decline rather than the newcomer’s résumé.
Three straight defeats in 15 Octagon appearances is the clearest trend on the card. Milošević’s nine-fight run and her body-shot finish on debut are the opposite.
Milošević, and the knockout risk, is the reason not to overstake it. Cachoeira at +284 is a live price precisely because she can end a round with one punch, and that never stops being true.
FREE PICK: Nina Milošević (-350)
UFC Fight Night: Jonny Parsons vs. José Souza
Por que apostar em Jonny Parsons?
He won his UFC debut in style. In July 2023, Parsons finished Danny Roberts in the closing seconds of the second round in London, and a DWCS Class of ’21 graduate who beat a British veteran on his first attempt is a nobody.
Why Bet on José Souza?
He is 9-1, and he has fought this year. Souza advanced his record with a split-decision win over Ding Meng in May, and at 24, he is the younger man with momentum.
And the gap: Parsons has not competed since that July 2023 debut, more than three years.
Final Betting Analysis: Parsons vs. Souza
-155 against +132 is the closest line on the card after the pick’em, and the three-year layoff is the reason it is not wider.
We said earlier in this article that we got the inactivity argument wrong on Sezinando two weeks ago. We are making it twice on this card (on Turman’s three years and on Parsons’s three years), and consistency matters more than hedging. If three years out is not a disadvantage, our whole framework for reading these fights is wrong.
Souza is the pick. A 60.8% implied probability is a modest price for an active 24-year-old against a man who has fought once in the last forty months.
FREE PICK: José Souza (-155)
Resumo das Escolhas Grátis
| Lutar | Escolha | Chances | Implícito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cortes Acosta vs. Walker | Johnny Walker | +195 | 33.9% |
| Suarez vs. Jandiroba | Tatiana Suárez | -210 | 67.7% |
| Grant vs. Smith | Elias Smith | -200 | 66.7% |
| Ko vs. Turman | SeokHyeon Ko | -350 | 77.8% |
| Elekana vs. Fernando | Lucas Fernando | -225 | 69.2% |
| Kondratavičius vs. Petroski | Mantas Kondratavičius | -108 | 51.9% |
| Lorenco vs. Petersen | Gabriel Lorenco | -230 | 69.7% |
| Silva vs. Fernandes | Karine Silva | -275 | 73.3% |
| Raposo vs. Degli | Marcos Degli | -300 | 75.0% |
| Delano vs. Magomedov | Murtazali Magomedov | -185 | 64.9% |
| Nakamura vs. Schmid | Keiichiro Nakamura | -325 | 76.5% |
| Bashi vs. Brennan | Austin Bashi | — | — |
| Cachoeira vs. Milošević | Nina Milošević | -350 | 77.8% |
| Parsons vs. Souza | José Souza | -155 | 60.8% |
Twelve favourites, one underdog, and one unpriced pick. That is a heavier favourite lean than we have published before, and it is a reaction to going one-from-three on underdogs last Saturday. We are naming the bias rather than pretending it is not there.
Do not parlay this card. The thirteen priced picks together carry an implied probability of 0.385% and fair odds of roughly +25,900.
The holds are the tightest we have recorded: 3.82% to 3.89%, averaging 3.84%, against 4.39% last week. Break-even at -110 remains 52.38%.
Our Scorecard From Last Saturday
Seven from twelve, and one process error worth more than the record.
What we got right:Luana Santos (-211), Zachary Reese (-290), Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-315), Julian Erosa (+150), Joe Kropschot (-350), Piera Rodriguez (-280) and Lucia Szabová (-600).
Three of the four post-fight bonuses went to our picks: Erosa, Kropschot, and Szabová. The fourth went to Tom Nolan, whom we picked against.
The Erosa call is the one we are happiest with. We took him at +150 against a -180 favourite on the reasoning that three years of cancellations had left JeongYeong Lee undercooked. Erosa was dropped early, fired back, and knocked Lee out at 1:31 of the first round in what was announced as the final fight of his career. Thirty-two wins, thirteen by knockout.
What we got wrong:Renato Moicano (-115), Randy Brown (+210), Ode’ Osbourne (-115), Francis Marshall (-260), and Theodor Berggren (+145).
The Brown pick was the worst of them. We argued that twelve days’ notice and a fourteen-day turnaround were a real tax on Jacobe Smith, and that a 72% implied probability was too high for a man who had met two newcomers. Smith won 30-26 on all three cards (a shutout with a point to spare), and did it on two weeks’ notice. The reasoning was not unreasonable. It was comprehensively wrong.
Visão geral final do cartão
The best fight is Suarez against Jandiroba, and it is not close. The #2 and #3 contenders at strawweight, both grapplers, both recent title challengers, with the winner next in line. It deserved the main event and it did not get it because two heavyweights were available.
The main event is the one the market cannot settle. A drift from -300 to -225 in under a week is the money telling you something about a man who has lost two straight.
The pick we are least comfortable with is Karine Silva at -275, against a fighter who has won three in a row and beaten a title challenger. If one of our fourteen loses, we expect it to be that one, and Gabriella Fernandes at +228 is the live dog of the night.
The pick we cannot defend properly is Austin Bashi, in a fight no book has priced and the UFC’s own preview does not mention. We have made it because our rule is a pick on every fight. We would not stake it.
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