{"id":49774,"date":"2026-11-10T18:30:20","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T00:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49774"},"modified":"2026-11-10T18:30:44","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T00:30:44","slug":"mlb-offseason-top-free-agents-and-where-they-could-land","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/pt_br\/beisebol\/mlb\/mlb-offseason-top-free-agents-and-where-they-could-land\/","title":{"rendered":"Temporada de folga da MLB: Principais agentes livres e onde eles podem jogar"},"content":{"rendered":"

The MLB collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 PM ET on December 1. That is twenty-one days away. Owners are widely expected to lock the players out on December 2.<\/strong>

When that happens, free agency stops. No signings, no trades, no negotiations between clubs and agents, and no Winter Meetings at all.<\/strong>

So this is not a normal offseason preview. Every player in this article has three weeks to find a team, or wait out a work stoppage of unknown length.<\/strong> The last one ran from December 2021 to March 10, 2022.

And the market knows it.<\/strong> In the weeks before the 2021 lockout, clubs committed more than $1.9 billion in new contracts, including a single-day record of $1.4 billion on December 1, the day the agreement expired.<\/strong> That is roughly three-quarters of the entire pre-lockout spend landing in the last twenty-four hours.

Uma nova era de As apostas esportivas ponto a ponto chegaram pela TSMx.<\/a>. Negocie apostas esportivas ponto a ponto para obter melhores odds e ganhe 1.000 TSMx Coins + $5 em Cr\u00e9dito TSMx ao fazer isso. Cadastre-se agora mesmo atrav\u00e9s do nosso link especial.<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Calendar Is the Story<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Data<\/em><\/th>What happens<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
November 10 \u2013 12<\/em><\/td>General managers’ meetings, Las Vegas<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
November 17, 4:00 PM ET<\/em><\/td>Qualifying-offer decisions due<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
December 1, 11:59 PM ET<\/em><\/td>Collective bargaining agreement expires<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
December 2<\/em><\/td>Lockout expected to begin<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Three weeks. One of them ends with eight players having to answer a $23.15 million question.<\/strong>

The dispute is economic.<\/strong> The owners want a salary cap and floor; the union opposes it; the league’s most recent proposal reportedly delays the system until 2028. Reporting this week describes no sign of agreement before the deadline.<\/strong>

What a lockout does not do is cancel baseball immediately.<\/strong> The 2021-22 stoppage was resolved on March 10, and the season started on time. What it does do is freeze this market completely<\/strong>, which is why every agent in Las Vegas this week is working to a December 1 clock rather than a February one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Class<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One elite player, and then a steep drop.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

#<\/em><\/th>Jogador<\/em><\/th>Pos<\/em><\/th>2026 club<\/em><\/th>Age on Opening Day 2027<\/em><\/th>Qualifying offer?<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
1<\/em><\/td>Tarik Skubal<\/strong><\/em><\/td>SP<\/em><\/td>Dodgers<\/em><\/td>29<\/em><\/td>No \u2014 ineligible<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2<\/em><\/td>Jazz Chisholm Jr.<\/em><\/td>2B<\/em><\/td>Ianques<\/em><\/td>29<\/em><\/td>N\u00e3o<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
3<\/em><\/td>Adri\u00e1n Morej\u00f3n<\/em><\/td>RP<\/em><\/td>Padres<\/em><\/td>28<\/em><\/td>Sim<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
4<\/em><\/td>Seiya Suzuki<\/em><\/td>OF<\/em><\/td>Filhotes<\/em><\/td>32<\/em><\/td>Sim<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
5<\/em><\/td>Randy Arozarena<\/em><\/td>OF<\/em><\/td>Marinheiros<\/em><\/td>32<\/em><\/td>Sim<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
6<\/em><\/td>Michael King<\/em><\/td>SP<\/em><\/td>Padres<\/em><\/td>31<\/em><\/td>N\u00e3o<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
7<\/em><\/td>Freddy Peralta<\/em><\/td>SP<\/em><\/td>Raios<\/em><\/td>30<\/em><\/td>N\u00e3o<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8<\/em><\/td>Brandon Lowe<\/em><\/td>2B<\/em><\/td>Pirates<\/em><\/td>32<\/em><\/td>Sim<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
9<\/em><\/td>Casey Mize<\/em><\/td>SP<\/em><\/td>Padres<\/em><\/td>29<\/em><\/td>N\u00e3o<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10<\/em><\/td>Ryan Jeffers<\/em><\/td>C<\/em><\/td>G\u00eameos<\/em><\/td>29<\/em><\/td>Sim<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Four starting pitchers, two second basemen, two outfielders, a reliever and a catcher. The average age on Opening Day 2027 is 30.1, and nobody is younger than 28, which is the clearest signal that this is a class without a franchise cornerstone outside the top spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skubal Is the Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

He is the best starting pitcher to reach free agency since Gerrit Cole in 2019<\/strong>, setting aside Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who arrived without a major-league record.

He is also not eligible for a qualifying offer<\/strong>, because he was traded during the season; he finished 2026 with the Dodgers. That removes the draft-pick penalty that attaches to five of the other names on this list, and in a compressed market that is worth real money.<\/strong>

The caveat is his elbow.<\/strong> He returned from surgery in May and has had what one evaluation calls hiccups since, while remaining an ace by the underlying measures.

Contract projections vary more than we would like.<\/strong> One outlet projects eight years and $410 million. Another describes a consensus nearer $350 million.<\/strong> That is a $60 million spread between two published estimates for the same player<\/strong>, which tells you how little anybody actually knows.

On landing spots, the reporting is thin, and the predictions are many.<\/strong> A snapshot of prediction-market pricing had the Dodgers and Mets as clear favourites, with the Padres around 20%<\/strong>. Published predictions variously send him back to Los Angeles, to San Diego, and to St. Louis, with the Cubs, Phillies, Tigers, Blue Jays and White Sox named as suitors.

We would treat all of that as noise.<\/strong> The one structural fact worth holding is that Skubal carries no draft-pick compensation and the market has three weeks<\/strong>, and the clubs best placed to move fast on a $350-million-plus commitment are the ones who have done it before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Diego Are About to Lose Three of the Top Ten<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Adri\u00e1n Morej\u00f3n at three, Michael King at six, Casey Mize at nine.<\/strong> No other club appears more than once on this list.<\/strong>

Morej\u00f3n has the qualifying offer and the strangest profile in the class:<\/strong> one of the best relievers in baseball for three seasons, with a four-pitch mix and the velocity to hold up in longer outings. The expectation is that whoever signs him moves him into a rotation.<\/strong>

King’s place depends on a decision he has not formally made.<\/strong> He holds a $28 million player option with a $5 million buyout (a $23 million call<\/strong>) and a further $30 million option for 2028 behind it. The ranking assumes he declines and goes to market. If he does not, the class loses its second-best starter.<\/strong>

Mize is the injury case.<\/strong> A groin problem sent him to the injured list three times and interrupted what looked like a breakout. He was the first overall pick in 2018 and throws a genuine out-pitch splitter.<\/strong>

Three of the ten best available players, from one roster, in a winter that ends suddenly.<\/strong> Whatever San Diego does between now and December 1 will shape this market more than any single signing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Qualifying Offers Land Inside the Window<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Eight players received one, each worth $23.15 million for 2027; a record, up 5.1% from last year’s $22,025,000.<\/strong> They have until 4:00 PM ET on November 17 to accept.<\/strong>

Randy Arozarena<\/strong> (Mariners) \u00b7 Jake Bauers<\/strong> (Brewers) \u00b7 David Bednar<\/strong> (Yankees) \u00b7 Ryan Jeffers<\/strong> (Twins) \u00b7 Brandon Lowe<\/strong> (Pirates) \u00b7 Adri\u00e1n Morej\u00f3n<\/strong> (Padres) \u00b7 Trevor Rogers<\/strong> (Orioles) \u00b7 Seiya Suzuki<\/strong> (Cubs)

Five of the eight are in the top ten. Three (Bauers, Bednar, and Rogers) are not.<\/strong>

Here is why the date matters this year and did not last year.<\/strong> The qualifying-offer deadline falls fourteen days before the CBA expires.<\/strong> A player who declines on November 17 has exactly two weeks to find a market, with a draft-pick penalty attached to his signature. A player who accepts takes $23.15 million and waits out the labour fight on a guaranteed contract.<\/strong>

In a normal winter, declining is close to automatic for anybody with a multi-year market. This is not a normal winter<\/strong>, and we would expect more acceptances than usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milwaukee Just Broke Their Own Rule<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jake Bauers hit .266\/.389\/.484 with 26 home runs in 144 games, won NLCS MVP, and the Brewers won the World Series.<\/strong> Then they gave him a $23.15 million qualifying offer.<\/strong>

We wrote eight days ago that Milwaukee’s entire method is to move good players roughly a year before free agency rather than pay for their decline<\/strong>: the policy that sent Freddy Peralta to the Mets in January, then to Tampa Bay at the deadline, and put him on the mound for the loss that effectively ended the World Series against his former club.

A $23.15 million one-year offer from the nineteenth-largest payroll in baseball is not that policy.<\/strong> It is a club deciding that one player, this once, is worth paying at the exact moment the model says to let him go.<\/strong>

Whether he accepts is the interesting part.<\/strong> Bauers is coming off a career year at a moment when the market is about to close.<\/strong> A guaranteed $23.15 million against an uncertain winter is a strong argument for taking it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where They Could Land<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A caution before the list: almost none of this is reporting.<\/strong> The landing-spot material in circulation is prediction and projection, and we are labelling it that way rather than dressing it up.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jogador<\/em><\/th>What is actually reported<\/em><\/th>Status<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Tarik Skubal<\/em><\/td>Market described as heating up; prediction markets favour Dodgers and Mets, Padres ~20%<\/em><\/td>Market pricing, not reports<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Freddy Peralta<\/em><\/td>One published prediction has him staying with Tampa Bay<\/em><\/td>Previs\u00e3o<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Michael King<\/em><\/td>Decision on a $28m player option with a $5m buyout<\/em><\/td>Confirmed contract structure<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Jazz Chisholm Jr.<\/em><\/td>Nothing we could find<\/em><\/td>No reporting located<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Randy Arozarena<\/em><\/td>Nothing beyond the qualifying offer<\/em><\/td>No reporting located<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We searched for market reporting on Chisholm and Arozarena and found none.<\/strong> Rather than invent a fit, we are saying so.<\/strong>

What can be said about Chisholm from the record:<\/strong> he is the only prime-aged middle infielder in the class who hits for power, steals bases, and defends up the middle; he will play 2027 at 29, and he carries no qualifying offer. In a class this thin at his position, the absence of reporting is more likely a gap in coverage than a gap in demand.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aten\u00e7\u00e3o novos jogadores!<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\t\"Gambilo\"\r\n

Aposte em esportes legalmente na Bolsa de Apostas Gambyl. Oferta para novos jogadores: $10 USD para todas as novas contas verificadas, mais um b\u00f4nus de 100% no seu primeiro dep\u00f3sito.<\/a><\/p>\t\r\n

Junte-se hoje!<\/a><\/p>\r\n<\/div>