NFL Weekly Update: Week 10

Last Updated on November 10, 2026 6:38 pm by Erwin Noguera

ESPN’s FPI makes the Los Angeles Chargers a 55.6% proposition at Baltimore on Monday Night Football. The market makes them 34.3%. That is a 21.3-point disagreement on a team that is 0-8 on the NFL.

It is the largest gap between model and market we have recorded all season, beating the 16.9 points on Cincinnati in Madrid two weeks ago. And it is not alone: seven of this week’s fourteen games clear the four-point threshold at which we committed, on November 3, to taking the model or passing.

We analyse the games of the league’s best four sides each week. Chicago and Denver are both on byes, along with Philadelphia and Tampa Bay, so the four are San Francisco, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati; and the Cincinnati game brings Pittsburgh with it, which puts two 6-2 clubs in the same fixture.

Buffalo settled for a 23-6 win Monday night at Minnesota and now lead the league in scoring at 32.00 points a game. Jacksonville still holds the best point differential in football at plus 108, twenty-nine clear of San Francisco, and they have spent the past three days buying defensive linemen. The trade deadline is 4:00 PM ET today, so every roster in this article can still change before Sunday.

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NFL Week 10 Games

NFL Week 10: Jaguars vs. Titans

Jacksonville are 6-2 with a plus-108 point differential, the best in the NFL by twenty-nine points over San Francisco. They score 28.62 a game, fourth in the league, and concede 15.12, second only to Minnesota. That is the only club in football ranked in the top four on both sides.

And they have just spent heavily to improve the side that was already second-best. Jessie Bates from Atlanta for a 2027 second and a 2028 fifth. Davon Godchaux from New Orleans. Jordan Davis from Philadelphia for a 2027 first and a 2029 second. Whether any of the three plays on Sunday is a separate question, but the intent is unambiguous.

Tennessee is 1-7 with a -55 differential, scoring 18.00 and allowing 24.88. They have also just traded Jeffery Simmons to Chicago for two first-round picks, which is a club selling its best defensive player in the middle of a season.

The market and the model agree almost exactly: no-vig Jacksonville are 82.7%, FPI has them at 83.9%, a gap of 1.2 points. There is nothing to exploit on the side. The total has drifted up a point from 45.5 to 46.5, which is modest in a week of violent moves.

Prediction: Jaguars 30-13 Titans

NFL Week 10: Bills vs. Jets

Buffalo is 7-1 and the highest-scoring team in the league at 32.00 points a game. Monday night at Minnesota, they won 23-6 against the best defence in football, which is the kind of result that tells you more than the scoreline suggests.

Their weakness is the other half. They concede 23.38 a game, sixteenth (exactly league-average), and a plus-69 differential built almost entirely on offence.

The Jets are 2-7, scoring 20.22 and conceding 24.78. They spent the trade deadline refusing to sell: Garrett Wilson is staying, by their choice and his, while Will McDonald has asked to leave. That is a 2-7 club keeping its assets, which is a decision about next season as much as this one.

The total has moved four points, from 46.5 to 50.5: the second-biggest rise on the board. The market and the model are 2.4 points apart, inside our threshold, so this is a straightforward game with a number that has travelled.

A 50.5 on a Jets side scoring twenty a game is the thing to question here, not the eight and a half. Buffalo will score. The question is whether New York can hold up their end of a fifty-point total, and nothing in their season says they can.

Prediction: Bills 31-20 Jets

NFL Week 10: 49ers vs. Cowboys

55.5 is the highest total of the week, up three points from a 52.5 open.

San Francisco is 7-1 with a plus-79 differential, third in scoring at 29.38 and sixth in defence at 19.50. They are the most balanced team in the league after Jacksonville.

Dallas is 4-5, and the explanation is entirely on one side of the ball. They score 27.33, sixth in the NFL. They concede 26.22, twenty-sixth. A plus-ten differential across nine games from a top-six offence is what a bottom-seven defence does to a season.

That combination is why the total is where it is, and it is the most defensible high number on the board: a good offence against a leaky defence, and a very good offence against an average one.

The market has San Francisco at 65.7% and FPI at 63.7%: a two-point gap, and the only one of our four games where the model is marginally the more pessimistic of the two. No edge either way.

The spread is the interesting number. Four and a half points on the road against a team whose defence concedes twenty-six a game is not an obvious lay, and Dallas have the offence to stay inside it even in a loss.

Prediction: 49ers 30-24 Cowboys

NFL Week 10: Steelers vs. Bengals

Both clubs are 6-2. They are built in opposite directions, and the contrast is almost perfect.

Cincinnati scores 30.00 points a game, second in the NFL. They concede 21.88, fourteenth. Pittsburgh scores 22.50, seventeenth. They concede 18.00, fourth. Plus 65 against plus 36, from two completely different routes.

Cincinnati has just come off a 34-17 win over Atlanta in Madrid, and their head coach has said publicly the club is standing pat at the deadline.

This is the one game of our four where the rule applies. No-vig, the market makes Cincinnati 60.9%. FPI makes them 70.7%. That is a 9.8-point gap; comfortably past the four points at which we committed to taking the model or passing.

We are taking Cincinnati. We have published that rule, broken it three times before writing it down, and this is a clean application: the model likes the home side with the better offence and the better differential, and the market is pricing the division rivalry rather than the teams.

The total has barely moved, 47.5 to 48.5. On a Sunday night game between a second-ranked offence and a fourth-ranked defence, that is a market with no strong opinion.

Prediction: Bengals 27-20 Steelers

The Rest of the Slate in One Line

Chargers at Ravens (Monday) is the game of the week for the wrong reasons. Baltimore are -5.5 at home, and FPI makes the Chargers 55.6% road favourites: a 21.3-point disagreement, the biggest we have recorded. Los Angeles are 0-8, thirty-second in scoring at 15.12 and twenty-eighth in defence at 27.38. Our rule says take the model or pass, and we are passing: this is the first time the model has pointed at a winless team, and a 21-point gap on an 0-8 club is more likely a model artefact than an edge. The total has fallen ten points, from 48.5 to 38.5, the largest move on the board.

Patriots against Lions is in Munich, the NFL’s second international fixture in three weeks after Cincinnati and Atlanta in Madrid. Detroit -2.5, total up three to 51.5, 9:30 AM ET kick-off.

Chiefs at Falcons, Texans at Browns, and Rams at Cardinals are all past the threshold, and all point the same way as the favourite: Kansas City by 14.7 points of disagreement, Houston by 9.7, Los Angeles by 8.7. Dolphins at Colts is past it too, pointing at Indianapolis by 15.6, on a Colts side that is 2-7 and sold three starters.

Vikings at Packers: Minnesota have the best defence in football at 14.50 points allowed, and the twenty-seventh offence at 18.25. They are 5.5-point underdogs at Lambeau, and the total has fallen five to 40.5.

Commanders at Giants opens the week on Thursday at 41.5, down six from a 47.5 open: the fourth-largest drop of the week. Panthers at Saints has risen five to 48.5, the largest increase of the week. Seahawks at Raiders has not moved at all.

One number for the whole slate: seven of fourteen games clear our four-point rule, and five of them point at the favourite. In a week where five totals fell and seven rose, that is a market still catching up to a league that has sorted itself out since the bye weeks started.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all the predictions for the NFL, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.