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Last Updated on October 23, 2026 10:37 am by Joey Knuckles
Episode Summary
Episode 114 introduces Matt Ross as the new host of The House Never Wins,and breaks down NFL Week 7 2026 Picks and NBA Futures. Matt describes himself as a sports bettor, sports aficionado, and sports journalist, and he lays out the format: facts, insight, and picks every week, available on YouTube and other major podcast platforms, with the Discord link in the description of each episode. He is clear that he is not there to sell picks. He is there to talk markets and sports betting, and to have some fun along the way. The show is powered by TSMx.io, the peer-to-peer sports exchange, and Matt opens the episode by bringing in a guest to explain the platform before moving to NBA futures and NFL Week 7 2026 picks.
Meet Dan Nedelko and TSMx.io
Dan Nedelko, COO of TSMx.io, has spent about 25 years in the sports betting industry and has watched it move from offshore operators to regulated, licensed books. His core argument is that betting at a traditional sportsbook means playing against a bookmaker who has the vig built into both sides, who charges fees on top, and who will limit or ban winning players. TSMx.io was built as an alternative. It is peer-to-peer, so bettors wager against each other rather than against a house, and the platform only takes a small percentage on winning bets. Dan puts the difference simply: sportsbooks need you to lose, and TSMx needs you to win.
The platform works on a make and take model. Users can place their own order at the odds they want, much like a bid in the stock market, or take an order someone else has posted. Dan notes that it keeps the familiar spread, moneyline, and total markets rather than the yes or no format of prediction markets. He also points to the sweepstakes setup, which is free to play. New users receive 1,000 coins to play with, and TSMx cash players also receive $5 in TSMx credits. Other features mentioned are leaderboards, upcoming raffles and contests, and AeroPay for deposits. Sign-up takes about five steps, and the platform is live in 22 states plus Washington D.C. Dan stresses the community side, including friendly competition with friends and a Discord where the whole team is present. Matt reminds listeners that they must be 21 or older in permitted states.
NBA Futures and Season Bets
With the NBA season underway, Matt notes the Knicks raised their first banner in 53 years after beating the Spurs 4-1 in a Finals where San Antonio led for roughly 75 percent of the series. He builds his futures approach on chemistry and continuity, and he zeroes in on the Knicks and the Spurs for the title. For the Knicks, he points to a deep roster that has played together for years and is built for the playoffs. For the Spurs, he points to a very high ceiling and highlights Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper alongside Victor Wembanyama. Dan agrees the Spurs price may even be understated, but he cautions that a futures bet this early is a long shot regardless, with a long season of injuries ahead for stars like Giannis and Kawhi Leonard. He also notes how free agency makes chemistry harder to read than it used to be.
Matt then moves to win totals and props.
- Celtics over 52.5 wins (FanDuel): Matt, a self-declared Celtics fan, likes the continuity of a system in its fourth year and the depth that regular-season basketball rewards. Boston won 56 games last year, mostly without Jayson Tatum. Dan agrees, calling 52 wins realistic.
- Nuggets over 48.5 wins: Matt backs Nikola Jokic, a deep supporting cast, and another year in the system, in a top-heavy Western Conference. He also says he would stay away from the guard-heavy Trail Blazers.
- Anthony Edwards over 30 points per game (+210, ESPN Bet): Matt had planned to pass or even fade this prop because of the arrival of LaMelo Ball. One 45-point opening night in which Edwards and Ball coexisted well changed his mind, and he is now doubling down. Dan calls it realistic and says Edwards looked calmer and more comfortable on the court.
- Knicks at Celtics over 223.5 (Friday): With one of the two teams headed for an 0-2 start, Matt expects early-season defense to be loose and expects fireworks, especially in the first half. Dan does not disagree, but warns that a total this aggressive could come down to a couple of points either way.
Dan also offers a broader bankroll tip for the first weeks of any season: totals, win totals, and props are generally safer starting points than moneylines and spreads, because teams are still working through rust, playbooks, and chemistry.
NFL Week 7 2026 Picks
Saints vs. Steelers in Paris. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite, with moneylines around Steelers -182 and Saints +152. Matt takes the underdog Saints. His reasoning centers on the Steelers’ travel plan, which has them going straight from the plane to practice, a plan he notes did not work well for the Rams in Australia. He also points to the Steelers’ receiver absences, their overtime scare last week, and their dependence on an Aaron Rodgers who is one ankle tweak or sack from leaving the game. Matt adds that the Saints have been in Paris all week, that they just beat the Giants, and that Alvin Kamara showed he still has something left. Dan, a self-described Saints fan, agrees with the fade. He criticizes international games, argues that jumping off a plane and into a practice is the worst possible strategy, and notes the Steelers have looked flat. He also calls the Saints’ win over the Giants an ugly game, while saying the team has real weapons and a strong offensive line if the offense is called properly.
Vikings at Colts. Minnesota is around -290 on the moneyline and about -6.5 on the spread (Fox Sports), with a modest total of 41.5. Matt loves the Vikings coming off their bye week. He cites Kyler Murray’s mobility, Justin Jefferson becoming more involved, and a defense he calls unbelievable. He does not buy any motivational bounce from the Colts’ front office firing, and he has little faith in an erratic Daniel Jones. Dan agrees and adds that the Colts are in disarray without receiver Alec Pierce, who has not played since Week 1. His one prop suggestion is Jonathan Taylor, who should see heavy volume and good yardage.
49ers at Falcons under 50.5. San Francisco is a 3.5-point favorite. Matt, a 49ers fan, still likes the under. San Francisco is on a short week after a Monday night game in which the offense scored only three second-half points, and Mike Evans is questionable with an Achilles tendinitis issue. He also does not expect Michael Penix to carry an over by himself against a 49ers defense that already has 15 sacks, compared to 20 all of last season. Dan agrees and adds a market observation. TSMx’s fair open total for this game is 47.5, compared to the 50.5 posted elsewhere, which he says reflects books padding totals to attract casual bettors. He also notes that Kyle Shanahan tends to manage a lead rather than run up the score.
NFL Week 7 2026 Picks Rapid Fire
Matt closes with Dan’s number one reason to try TSMx.io: sportsbooks need you to lose, and TSMx needs you to win. Dan adds that it is a startup that takes care of its customers, offers concierge support, and welcomes advanced bettors, including EV bettors and arbitrage bettors, who typically get limited elsewhere. Matt confirms the show will keep a public record of every pick it makes, repeats the 21-plus and 22-states-plus-D.C. reminder, and includes the 1-800-GAMBLER responsible gambling line. Episode 115 is scheduled for next Thursday, with Week 7 results, a review of the NBA picks, and possibly a hockey pick or two.
Dan then closes the episode with a rapid-fire round of quick NFL Week 7 2026 Picks, with Matt jumping in on several games. They land on the Chiefs, the Packers, the Rams, and others, and the segment ends with Matt taking the Cowboys over the Eagles in what he calls a toss-up.
A new era of peer-to-peer sports betting has arrived from TSMx. Trade sports peer-to-peer for better odds, and claim 1,000 TSMx Coins + $5 in TSMx Credit when you sign up now with our special link. No bans or limits on winning players. Arbitrage and EV players welcome. Keep getting your sports news and insights from Gambyl and subscribe to our new YouTube Channel to stay up to date on The House Never Wins!
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