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Forecasts for the Upcoming Elections in Mexico: Official Polls, AI Models and Betting Odds

Last Updated on May 22, 2024 1:54 pm by Gambyl Nation Editorial Team

Mexico’s presidential elections are just around the corner, and forecasts are a hot topic. Different sources offer different views on who could win. Below, we compare official polls, predictions based on artificial intelligence (AI) models and odds from the betting platform GAMBYL.

Official Polls

According to the most recent polls, Claudia Sheinbaum, Morena’s candidate, leads the voting intention with 42%. In second place, PAN’s Xóchitl Gálvez accumulates 30%, while Movimiento Ciudadano’s candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, is in a distant third place with 15%. Official polls reflect a significant lead for Sheinbaum, albeit with room for change as the campaign progresses.

Predictions from AI Models

AI models, which analyze large amounts of data including trends in social networks, election history and economic variables, show similar results to polls, but with greater variability in forecasts. According to an AI model developed by the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Sheinbaum has a 45% chance of winning, Gálvez 35%, and García 10%. These models indicate a closer race, highlighting the possibility of surprises depending on how the campaigns evolve.

Odds at Gambyl Betting Exchange

The GAMBYL sports betting platform provides another perspective based on the wisdom of crowds. Current odds on GAMBYL give Sheinbaum a 50% chance of winning, Galvez 32%, and Garcia 18%. The odds tend to reflect both the general consensus and the expectations of informed bettors, offering a complementary view to polls and AI models.
GAMBYL not only reflects the expectations of informed bettors, but also empowers individuals to place their own bets and decide the stakes of the outcome. This direct participation capability allows users to actively engage in the electoral process in an innovative and exciting way.

Comparison and Analysis

Although there are variations in the exact numbers, all three sources agree on the order of the candidates, with Sheinbaum in the lead, followed by Gálvez and then Máynez. The official polls and GAMBYL give a larger lead to Sheinbaum compared to the AI models, which suggest a slightly more competitive scenario.

It is important to consider that, although the current data shows a clear favorite, election campaigns can change quickly. Debates, unexpected events and campaign strategies could significantly influence the final results.

In summary, while Claudia Sheinbaum seems to be the favorite at this stage, both official polls, AI models and betting on GAMBYL indicate that there is still room for competition and possible surprises. The next few weeks will be crucial in defining the final course of this presidential election.

To find all of Gambyl’s forecasts, click here:
https://beta.gambyl.com/featured/Politics/ClaudiaSheinbaumganarálaseleccionesmexicanas/Politics

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