Astros vs. Phillies – World Series Betting Superthread

Last Updated on November 6, 2022 10:58 pm by Erwin Noguera

World Series Update: The Astros defeated the visiting Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday night, 4-1, and in doing so took the series by a count of four games to two as they become the World Series Champions.

The first match was quite a show, with the Phillies taking over the match at the very end.

This second match had things going the same way, as the Astros were leading 3-0 early, but they increased their lead to 5-0 in the fifth.

The third game in the World Series broke the tie between both teams, but it was not the result we would have expected so far.

The fourth game in the World Series ended with a 5-0, and after watching it, it seems like the Astros were getting some payback from the 3rd match.

The fifth game in the World Series ended switching the usual outcome for the first time, and we were excited, the stakes were increasing as things could end in the next match if the score isn’t tied.

The World Series just had it’s final game last night, and the wrap up left no doubts on who was the best team this season, as the lead and the finish were clear enough.

The Houston Astros came into the World Series as the AL champions and the Philladelphia Phillies as the NL Champions.

Let’s get into the details.

Astros vs. Phillies, Sixth match Re-cap

For Houston, Framber Valdez was near flawless until allowing a sixth-inning solo homer to Kyle Schwarber that gave the Phillies a 1-0 lead.

The deficit, however, was short-lived. In the home half of the sixth, Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez authored a booming three-run home run off Phillies reliever José Alvarado that gave Houston a 3-1 lead that the lockdown bullpen would not relinquish. 

The 4rth and final run managed to be just an extra commodity as the team kept an elite level pitching in order to seal the deal.

The win in game 6 means that the Astros have become the 21st MLB franchise to win multiple World Series titles.

The Houston Astros stopped both our predictions of the series ending in the 7nth game, and the Phillies taking it, but we can only congratulate the new Champions for their excellent performances in the series.

HOUSTON ASTROS 4 – 2 PHILLADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Houston Astros are the 2022 World Series Champions!

MLB World Series Preview – When and Where to Watch

Series Games Results, Dates, Times and Location:

1rst Match: Phillies take the victory 6-5 on the Minute Maid Park.

2nd Match: The Astros manage to get back at the Phillies with a 5-2 score in the Minute Maid Park

3rd Match: The Phillies shut the Astros down on a 7-0 in front of their home crowd at Citizens Bank Park

4rth Match: Houston got a little payback by shutting down the Phillies with a 5-0 score on Citizens Bank Park

5th Match: Houston decided to take the lead for the first time right when it counts, taking the victory with a 3-2 score at Citizens Bank Park

6th Match: The Astros defeated the visiting Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday night, 4-1, and in doing so took the series by a count of four games to two as they become the World Series Champions.

Where can I Watch It? Star+

Astros vs. Phillies, World Series Preview

The Astros will be vying for their second championship in the last six years and second in franchise history, while the Phillies are looking to reach the top of the MLB heap for the first time since 2008 and the third time in franchise history.

The Astros reached the Fall Classic by sweeping the Yankees in the ALCS. 

Across the league, the Phillies took down the Padres in five games in the NLCS.

In this series, the Astros come in as the heavy favorites. 

During the regular season Houston topped Philly by 19 games in the standings and by a 157 home run differential. 

Yes, the Phillies played the tougher schedule as measured by opponents’ average winning percentage, but that’s not enough to make up those gaps. 

The Astros are coming in far more rested — they’ve played seven playoff games to Philly’s 12 — and they come in having coveted home-field advantage. 

All that said, baseball is built to defy such expectations, and the Phillies have done a lot of defying of expectations this October.

It is easy to see that overall, the Astros are by far the better team, but there is something about the Phillies in this play-offs season that has been making everybody, including us, take their side.

We expect this series to find its resolution in the 7th game, and it should be a contested and exciting back-and-forth until then, so get ready for it.

We’re taking the underdog Phillies as our pick for a hard-fought victory in this year’s World Series.

World Series Game 1 – Breakdown and Free Pick

Game 1 will feature Aaron Nola (PHI) taking on Zack Greinke (HOU).

Nola has been the Phillies’ workhorse during the playoffs, and he comes in with a 2.37 ERA in three starts.

Greinke has also performed well for the Astros, having a 1.50 ERA in two starts.

Both pitchers are coming off strong outings in their last appearances and should continue to dominate in Game 1 of the World Series.

The big difference maker may come from the offense as Houston’s bats have been hot throughout this post-season, while Philadelphia is still trying to find their rhythm at the plate.

We’re giving the edge to Houston for Game 1, but it will definitely be a close one. Our pick is Houston to win Game 1.

The first match was quite a show, with the Phillies taking over the match at the very end.

This second match had things going the same way, as the Astros were leading 3-0 early, but they increased their lead to 5-0 on the fifth.

In this game, the Phillies were stopped from making the excellent comeback they scored on the first game, but they were able to get 2 runs between the 7nth and 9th inning.

The Astros learned from their last match that they should not let the Phillies rally back after they take a lead, or they are going to pay for it.

With the adjustments done by the Astros at this time, it is up to the Phillies to do the proper in order to change the possible outcomes in the 3rd game.

As expected by us, the series are still on their way to find it’s resolution on the 7th game.

Even after the beat down, we keep our pick on the Phillies, and we are eager to see what happens next.

World Series Game 2 – Breakdown and Free Pick

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros ace and World Series MVP candidate had a lot on his plate in Game 1 against the Philadelphia Phillies. Facing them for just the second time this season the Astros and their ace led 5-0 through three innings before things took an unexpected turn late Friday night during their contest at Minute Maid Park (home of Major League Baseball’s defending champs).

Fun fact, Verlander got knocked around pretty badly by the Philadelphia bats.

Worst ERA in World Series history (min. 30 IP):

– Justin Verlander: 6.07
– Carl Erskine: 5.83
– Don Sutton: 5.26
– Gary Nolan: 4.96
– Al Leiter: 4.59

— Paul Casella (@Paul_CasellaMLB) October 29, 2022

Tonight it’s Framber Valdez on the mound for Houston, up against Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Both pitchers have been solid throughout the playoffs so far with a 1.42 and 1.48 ERA respectively, but we know that can all amount for nothing. 

Do you trust the usually stoic Astros defense to get revenge for last night’s showing and get back to their usual selves, or is the Phillies batting lineup simply too good to withstand the barrage?

We’re riding with the Astros to make amends and square up this series.

Free Game 2 World Series Pick: Astros Moneyline (-138).

World Series Game 3 – Breakdown and Free Pick

After the Astros allowed an impressive comeback by the Phillies in the first game. Yesterday they started with the same scoring trend, but in the second chance they had, they didn’t get loose on defense.

If we have to highlight something from the last match it has to be pitcher Framber Valdez, who helped hold the Phillies to just 4 hits and 1 run in the 6.1 innings he was on the field. After he was subbed off the Philadelphia offensive gave a better performance, but it wasn’t enough to give another turn-around to the scoreboard.

For game three the Astros will start with Lance McCullers Jr, a left-handed who in the post-season has a 2.45 ERA for 11 innings in his record.

Meanwhile, even if the Phillies struggled in this second game, taking the series home with a 1-1 is an excellent result and they never looked out of place in front of their rivals.

In the second match, the Phillies had their fair amount of chances to believe in a comeback but in front, they had the Astros bullpen, which has been one of the main reasons that have them in this final as the first seed. Zack Wheeler was the starting pitcher and he gave five runs and six hits in just 5.0 innings, however, for game three the right-handed Noah Syndergaard (also known as Thor) should start, who has a 1.69 ERA in this post-season.

For the third game we have and odds of -135 for the Astros and +110 for the Phillies. Things have looked close so far, but the bookmarkers keep marking a clear superiority of the Astros as they are favorites even in this game as visitors, with a SPREAD of +115. In the head-to-head Thor has looked quite inferior to his rival, so we are backing the Astros for their second win.

World Series Game 4 – Breakdown and Free Pick

Many bookmakers started showing that Philadelphia Cinderella’s history was going to end quickly in this World Series, but the surprises in the first and third games had changed things quite a bit.

The odds show a -114 for the Phillies against -105 for the Astros, making the National League Champions favorites for the first time (Source: MyBookie.ag, the odds may vary according to the bookmarker). Let’s see the statistical analysis that backs up these numbers.

It is not the first time that the Phillies get on their strong side as the underdogs, in the regular season, they won almost 50% of their games.

The Astros were a better team in the regular season, but let us see the number in their last games. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5, with a +10 run differential. On their part, Houston is in 3-2, with a differential of only +1 (the crushing on their last game affected a lot in that sense).

Philadelphia’s pitching held the Astros to 0 runs after allowing 7 hits in the last game.

And if we talk about pitching, the starters for this game will be Cristian Javier (Ast) and Aaron Nola (Phi).

Javier comes with an 11-9 record and a good ERA of just 2.54. He regularly pitches for around 4.5 innings, remaining on the pitch for half of the games. He is a right-hander who allows few hits, however, he allows 1.03 home runs on average.

Nola, on his part, has a negative record of 11-13 but his numbers aren’t so bad. He has a 3.5 ERA averaging 6.4 innings per game, well above the halfway mark. However, he stands out in the home runs allowed, with a 0.83 average, well below his counterpart for this game.

This will be a close game with two solid pitchers. Our betting pick is on the Philadelphia Phillies with their -114 odds and backing it with an UNDER pick of 7.5.

World Series Game 5 – Breakdown and Free Pick

For this game, we have two returns, the right-hander Noah Syndergaard, who saw the Phillies get their second victory, and Justin Verlander for Houston, who saw the surprising loss of his team in the first game.

Syndergaard is a solid pick for post-season games with a 2.30 ERA, although he is not a regular protagonist in this instance with just 8 appearances. On the contrary, Verlander comes from having the worst ERA in a World Series game in history, however, his overall numbers aren’t that bad with a 3.39 ERA. Worst that his rival, yes, but in 34 appearances.

The native of Virginia has the mission of erasing the stain from his last start.

The momentum changed lightly towards the Astros after last night’s game, as the odds of -153 for them, contrary to the + 125 of the Phillies, show. However, the Pennsylvania franchise has never lost consecutive post-season games this year, and the series has been going in a give and take.

We will put our trust in the change of momentum from last night to the Astros and back then for a -1.5 SPREAD. 

World Series Game 6 – Breakdown and Free Pick

This World Series was a give and take until yesterday night when the Astros took advantage of the momentum from the previous game and achieved consecutive victories for the first time in this series. This is bad news for the Phillies, as they were keeping things tight as the underdogs and now face the obligation to win tomorrow.

The odds for the match reflect what we are saying, with +118 for Philadelphia and -144 for the Astros. The difference is short, as in most games in this series.

The starting line-up will have the right-handed Zack Wheeler for the Phillies, who has a record of 1-2 and a 2.67 ERA in this post-season. On the Astros side, we will have the left-handed Framber Valdez, who comes with a solid 2-0 record and 1.42 ERA in the post-season.

At this position (3-2 in favor before going to their home ground) teams in the World Series have a 21-8 record. However, the Astros have terrible memories of this situation, as in 2019, they let the Washington Nationals make an impressive comeback to break the heart of their fans. They also come from a heartbreak last year against the Braves, so it’s time to say stop and prove their worth where it matters.

We will go for a Houston Astros tight win, with an UNDER 7 bet at -120.