UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal – Preview and Betting Odds

Last Updated on March 2, 2022 10:24 pm by Erwin Noguera

UFC272 - Gambyl Sports Betting Exchange — UFC 272 Covington vs Masvidal Preview and Betting Odds

On Saturday, March 5th, 2022, a friendship turned rivalry takes the center stage on the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as the Main Event Fight for UFC 272.

On the main card, we get a clash of former team and roommates, as Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal go in to break the other fighter.

Before that happens, we get an exciting co-main event when Rafael Dos Anjos clashes with Renato Moicano in a catchweight bout at 160 pounds.

We also have 3 more exciting fights, as Edson Barboza meets Bryce Mitchell in the featherweight division.

Kevin Holland faces off against Alex Oliveira in the welterweight division.

For the last fight in the main card, we have Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy as the heavyweights collide.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC 272 – Covington vs. Masvidal – Betting Odds and Free Picks – Info

When: Saturday, March 5th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Colby Covington -315 vs Jorge Masvidal +255

Rafael Dos Anjos -165 vs Renato Moicano +145

Edson Barboza +135 vs Bryce Mitchell -165

Kevin Holland -320 vs Alex Oliveira +260

Sergey Spivak -195 vs Greg Hardy +160

Draw Offs: –

Where Can I Watch? ESPN +

Where Can I Stream? ESPN Go

Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Why Bet on Colby Covington:

Covington (16-3, four KOs) was a two-time Pac-10 Conference wrestling champion and All-American.

He made his pro-MMA debut in 2012 and joined the UFC in 2014.

A seven-fight winning streak starting in 2016 changed his career.

When he beat Rafael dos Anjos for the interim UFC welterweight title, he debuted a persona many know him for now.

He is 2-2 in his last four fights since then.

He beat Robbie Lawler, got knocked out by champion Usman at UFC 245, took out former champion Tyron Woodley, and lost a rematch to Usman at UFC 268 via unanimous decision.

Why Bet on Jorge Masvidal:

Masvidal (35-15, 16 KOs) made his MMA debut in 2003.

After competing for promotions such as AFC, Strikeforce, Bellator, and World Victory Road, “Gamebred” made his UFC debut in 2013.

He is 12-8 for the promotion.

Masvidal’s win against Ben Askren elevated his status there thanks to him landing the fastest knockout in UFC history.

Inside Madison Square Garden, Masvidal beat Nate Diaz for the BMF title.

He then lost to Kamaru Usman in multiple fights for the UFC welterweight title.

The first bout, at UFC 251, was a last-minute affair for Masvidal as a replacement opponent.

The second fight was at UFC 261, with Usman knocking him out.

Final Betting Analysis: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Covington is the heavy favorite on the ground.

He has four wins via submission, but what he can do when it comes to ground and pound is something else.

Against Robbie Lawler and Rafael Dos Anjos, Covington landed 17 takedowns (he also landed three against former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley), while landing 278 shots.

If Covington can apply pressure on the ground, Masvidal may not last long in the octagon.

While Covington has an edge on the floor, Masvidal thrives on his feet.

In his last five fights, Masvidal has landed 247 shots.

He landed 112 against Diaz and can strike at any point.

He may want to knock Covington out right away as he did to Askren.

Masvidal may also want to toy with Covington by adding onto the 3.09 significant strikes absorbed per minute mark of Covington.

While one form of combat may favor the other, keep in mind that Covington can keep Masvidal on his back foot and play it close to the vest.

If that is the case, Covington can suffocate Masvidal throughout the contest.

Both fighters will be ready to go right from the start, but our betting token stays with Covington, who will look to end his rivalry with Masvidal in an emphatic fashion.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano

Why Bet on Rafael Dos Anjos:

After losing 4 of his preceding 5 fights former UFC lightweight champion dos Anjos returned to his home country and defeated short-notice replacement Paul Felder at UFC Fight Night 182 in November of 2020.

Why Bet on Renato Moicano:

Renato Moicano is stepping up on short notice, and he fought only a few weeks ago.

Moicano has excellent BJJ with technical striking and great wrestling.

His one major weakness would be his chin and the fact that he’s taking this fight on short notice.

Final Betting Analysis: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano

Dos Anjos has not lost a fight in six years where he was not taken down in the process.

This will be key for Moicano to integrate some grappling and try to get dos Anjos to the ground.

When it comes to takedown defense, Moicano has an impressive 80% defense, and dos Anjos has 58% with a 37% takedown accuracy.

Both fighters tend to let their guards down in fights too, with RDA absorbing 3.22 and Moicano 3.58 strikes absorbed per minute.

Our betting token is on Moicano, as he should be able to take the victory if he controls the fight on the ground.

Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell

Why Bet on Edson Barboza:

Barboza is the No. 10 ranked featherweight contender and is coming off a loss to Giga Chikadze last August when he was massively outstruck and eventually finished by punches in the third round.

He’s just 3-6 in his last nine fights, although those defeats came against highly-ranked fighters including Justin Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The 36-year-old Brazilian has been competing in the UFC since 2010 and was a lightweight contender for years before dropping down to 145 pounds in 2020.

He’s 2-2 in the division with a split-decision loss to Dan Ige in his featherweight debut before picking up wins against Makwan Amirkhani and Shane Burgos.

With a background in Muay Thai, Barboza is a versatile striker who utilizes devastating kicks to every level.

Why Bet on Bryce Mitchell:

Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell enters this fight at No. 11 in the featherweight rankings but hasn’t fought since a decision win against Andre Fili in October of 2020.

Mitchell took down Fili seven times in a dominant performance where he racked up more than 10 minutes of control time.

The 27-year-old is now a perfect 14-0 in his career, including 5-0 in the octagon.

With a background in BJJ and wrestling, Mitchell is a grappling specialist that began his MMA career with eight consecutive wins via submission.

However, he doesn’t need to pull off a submission to get a victory, with excellent top control and vicious ground and pound also in his arsenal.

Final Betting Analysis: Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell

This fight is going to come down to which fighter can implement his style.

While Mitchell can be dominant on the mat and is on an impressive winning streak he has gone up against some weak competition.

Guys like Fili and Charles Rosa don’t exactly move the needle while Barboza has faced killers for much of his career.

Barboza also has an impressive 78% takedown defense and an underrated grappling game.

If he’s able to keep this fight standing up he should be able to chop Mitchell’s base with leg kicks and pick him apart at range.

In a fight that could be a bit of a coin flip, we’ll place our betting token towards the crafty veteran to score the upset on a younger guy who might have a bit of ring rust.

Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira

Why Bet on Kevin Holland:

‘The Trailblazer’ Kevin Holland made his UFC debut on UFC 227 after he was asked to face Santos on short notice.

Holland stepped into this fight and faced a unanimous decision loss on his UFC debut.

But he became the breakout star of the year 2020 by winning five fights in seven months duration.

Kevin Holland defeated Joaquin Buckley, Darren Stewart, Ronaldo Souza, and others during his dominating run.

But he faced Derek Brunson on short notice at UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland and lost that fight which also ended his winning streak.

Holland again faced Marvin Vettori in his next fight on short notice and faced the same result.

In his last fight, he faced Kyle Daukaus but that fight ended as a no-contest after Kevin Holland got unconscious with an accidental head butt.

Now he is looking forward to making a storming entry into the Welterweight division with his debut in the division at UFC 272.

Why Bet on Alex Oliveira:

The UFC veteran Alex Oliveira made his debut against Gilbert Burns on UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare.

He holds a professional record of 22-11-1 and faced many of the biggest names in the promotion throughout his careers such as Carlos Condit, Max Griffin, Donald Cerrone, and others.

Oliveira is on a three-fight losing streak coming into this fight with his latest loss coming against Niko Price on UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker.

He won his last fight in July 2020 against Peter Sobotta and now he’ll look forward to coming back in the win column with this fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira

Due to his current losing streak, we do not expect the Cowboy to be able to stop Kevin Holland’s debut in the welterweight division.

Holland might prove to be just too much for the veteran to handle, ‘The Trailblazer’ will put his heart out to make a comeback in the win column and an incredible debut in a new division.

Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy

Why Bet on Sergey Spivak:

After a difficult (1-2) start to his UFC career, Spivak rattled off a three-fight win streak to establish himself inside the Octagon.

That win streak also earned him a big opportunity versus top prospect, Tom Aspinall, who proved too much for the Moldovan “Polar Bear.”

Why Bet on Greg Hardy:

Hardy’s career trajectory has been rather similar.

After struggling to find his footing early, Hardy put some wins together and took a step up in competition.

The outcome? A pair of knockout losses, and Hardy enters this pay-per-view (PPV) main card opener on the final fight of his UFC contract.

Final Betting Analysis: Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy

If — and this is a big if — Spivak lands a takedown, this fight is probably over. Hardy has proven himself a pretty miserable bottom grappler on several occasions, and Spivak has the skills to make him pay for that weakness quickly. The problem, however, is that Hardy is typically pretty difficult to ground.

The odds of Spivak hitting his first takedown attempt of the fight aren’t great.

What’s important is that he continues to wrestle, keeping the fight in the clinch and draining his opponent.

Worst-case, if Spivak is unable to trip or drag his opponent to the mat, he can look for riskier techniques, like the head-and-arm throw he repeatedly used against Tai Tuivasa.

With that type of sacrificial throw, Spivak may still convince Hardy to follow him to the canvas if it fails.

After the first round, the takedown should come easier as Hardy fatigues, and our betting token is placed on Spivak to score a victory.