UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks

Last Updated on April 6, 2023 4:05 pm by Erwin Noguera

This weekend not only do we got a numbered event, but we got a rematch from a fight that everyone was eager for last year; the Miami-Dade Arena in Florida will be hosting the UFC 287 event and we are going to spend as much time as we can watching a killer event.

The main event is a direct rematch for the UFC middleweight championship, between the now champion, Alex “Poatan” Pereira, and the former champion, who had dominated the division, Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya.

The co-main event is one of the most interesting welterweight clashes, as we get to see the always-exciting Jorge Masvidal and see how he fares against the dangerous Gilbert Burns.

The rest of the main card will also feature the bantamweight fight between Rob Font and Adrian Yanez, a welterweight clash between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio, and another bantamweight clash, featuring the Mexican prodigy Raul Rosas Jr. and Christian Rodriguez.

This fight night includes a total of 13 fights, with 5 of them making a great main card and 8 more on the prelims to start growing the hype as we get to the main event.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Betting Odds and Fight Card Picks – Info

When: Saturday, April 8th, at 6:00 pm ET at the Miami-Dade Arena in Florida

Moneyline odds:

Alex Pereira +106 / Israel Adesanya -135

Gilbert Burns -454 / Jorge Masvidal +316

Rob Font +146 / Adrian Yanez -188

Kevin Holland -256 / Santiago Ponzinibbio +195

Raul Rosas Jr. -256 / Christian Rodriguez +193

Kelvin Gastelum -133 / Chris Curtis +105

Michelle Waterson-Gomez +133 / Luana Pinheiro -172

Gerald Meerschaert +154 / Joseph Pyfer -200

Karl Williams -454 / Chase Sherman +313

Cynthia Calvillo +221 / Lupita Godinez -294

Trey Ogden +255 / Ignacio Bahamondes -344

Steve Garcia +155 / Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -200

Sam Hughes +203 / Jaqueline Amorim -270

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 287: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya

Why Bet on Alex Pereira?

Alex Pereira has logged only eight career MMA bouts, including just four in the UFC. However, he’s built up an extensive kickboxing resume as a two-division champ at Glory and a pair of victories over Adesanya.

Those kickboxing wins against Adesanya were a big reason why he was given a title shot, but Pereira proved he deserved it with a fifth-round knockout of Izzy.

Pereira is massive for this weight class, and that size comes with incredible power.

The same left hook that handed Adesanya his first career knockout loss also starched Sean Strickland and put current UFC light heavyweight Dustin Jacoby to sleep in Glory.

However, he’s more than just a power puncher and is very polished and accurate with his striking.

Why Bet on Israel Adesanya?

Before his loss against Pereira, Adesanya was undefeated in the UFC’s middleweight division, recording 12 straight victories at 185 pounds.

His only other defeat in MMA came against Jan Blachowicz when he moved up to 205 pounds to unsuccessfully challenge for the light heavyweight belt.

However, Adesanya has suffered those two previous defeats against Pereira in kickboxing, and he’ll try to snap his three-fight losing streak to Poatan on Saturday.

The first loss was a very close decision that could have gone either way, and his final defeat at Glory of Heroes came similarly to their clash last November.

Adesanya seemed to outpoint his opponent through the first two rounds before a left hook caught him for his first-ever knockout loss.

The Last Stylebender is arguably UFC’s best technical striker, and he uses his length, quickness, kicking ability, and deceptive power to devastating effect.

Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya Final Betting Analysis:

Pereira knocked out Adesanya this past November to snatch the title from the five-time defending champ.

Adesanya was a -175 favorite for that bout, and he remains the favorite now despite that loss and two previous defeats against Pereira in the kickboxing ring.

Adesanya perhaps should have been given the decision in the first fight between these two, and he seemed to hold the upper hand until getting knocked out in the last two affairs.

However, he’s still 0-3 against Pereira in combat sports, and it’s tough to justify backing him as a favorite here.

Pereira does an excellent job of checking the leg kicks Adesanya likes to use.

With more experience, he should do a better job of defending against Adesanya’s subpar grappling, which surprisingly led to him being controlled on the mat in the third round.

Don’t forget, he’s still evolving as an MMA fighter and will only get better at fighting with four-ounce gloves and defending takedowns.

Sure, Adesanya’s footwork and technique have led to him tagging Pereira in the past. But Poatan’s chin can weather those attacks, and he possesses the power to end the fight at any moment.

That power is the ultimate equalizer in a fight with Adesanya trying to survive for 25 minutes, making this bout a 50/50 matchup. We are therefore leaning toward Pereira at plus money.

UFC 287: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal

Why Bet on Gilbert Burns?

Burns’ recent history has been somewhat of a mixed bag. After failing to beat Kamaru Usman for the UFC Welterweight Championship at UFC 258 (a loss that ended the challenger’s six-fight winning streak), Gilbert rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Stephen Thompson.

Unfortunately, Burns’ momentum was cut short as he lost unanimously by points to Khamzat Chimaev nine months later.

“Durinho” didn’t let that loss get to him, though. He rebounded impressively, submitting Neil Magny with an arm-triangle choke in the first round of their fight at UFC 283.

Now, it’s up to Burns to prove that he can string together consecutive wins again.

Why Bet on Jorge Masvidal?

Jorge Masvidal has been trending in the wrong direction. The owner of the fastest knockout win in UFC history hasn’t tasted victory in nearly four years, having lost each of his last three fights.

Masvidal’s first loss came when he challenged Usman for the welterweight championship at UFC 251, only to lose by a unanimous decision. The Miami native challenged again for the gold at UFC 261 but fell to Usman via second-round knockout.

Masvidal then went the distance with Colby Covington at UFC 272, but couldn’t get the job done, ultimately losing by unanimous decision once again.

It’s now the first time in his career that the 38-year-old must deal with a three-fight skid. He does have the benefit of UFC 287 being in his hometown, so it’ll be interesting to see if a pro-Masvidal crowd gives him a boost.

Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal Final Betting Analysis:

With Masvidal on the longest losing streak of his career, we have to side with Burns at UFC 287.

Burns has more momentum behind him and is coming off an impressive win over Magny. Besides, it’s truly starting to look like Masvidal’s best days are behind him.

He’ll come out swinging, but Burns will weather the storm and eventually outlast the hometown hero.

Both men are decent at avoiding being finished, which is why it’s likelier that Burns gets the job done with help from the judges’ table.

UFC 287: Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez

Why Bet on Rob Font?

Font is the action man at Bantamweight and he’s starting to show the wear of his battles.

He’s coming into this fight on a two-fight skid where the normally durable striker has been knocked down five times.

The beatings he suffered at the hands of Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera highlighted his toughness but indicated that he was at the end of his rope.

You never would guess from looking at him that he outlined both of them in each fight.

Why Bet on Adrian Yanez?

Yanez has been on a tear, having won all six of his UFC fights thus far with five ending inside the distance.

Everything Yanez fires has evil intentions, even under duress, displaying excellent counter-striking skills and a solid chin.

He’s a volume striker by nature, but he’s shown that he can plant his feet and deliver some huge shots.

Unlike most volume strikers, Yanez has to stop power. He’s landing 6.62 significant strikes per minute and his fights last six-and-a-half minutes, so he’s essentially a buzzsaw.

Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez Final Betting Analysis:

Font and Yanez are bangers who are set to clash for bantamweight bragging rights, and this battle could end up being the fight of the night.

This isn’t that complex of a fight for Yanez to prepare for, especially as Font should be right there and will try to beat him at his own game.

It will take a true veteran performance from Font to beat a younger fighter in a similar mold. Font’s primary offense is through his high work rate, opting to stifle and overwhelm with activity.

Because he knows what to expect from Yanez, Font would be wise to utilize his BJJ skills and try to find a way to get his opponent on the ground to eat up the clock.

This should turn out to be an exciting fight where both fighters are going to take turns blasting each other out. Typically, bouts between volume strikers are won by whoever fires first and stunts the other’s activity.

Yanez has all the tools here with none of the wear and tear. He’s sharper, faster, stronger, and a solid finisher who doesn’t let his opponents off the hook when he hurts them. If they trade, Yanez will get the better of it, and we believe that he will take the win.

UFC 287: Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Why Bet on Kevin Holland?

Looking to impress his fans, the 30-year-old wants to bounce back after losing to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson, which is no slight on his record.

Beating those fighters isn’t easy, and no fighter has ever beaten Chimaev, which is why online gambling markets have Holland favored to win.

He has earned respect in the welterweight division with wins over Tim Means and Ronaldo Souza, but with only one win since 2020, there are some concerns. We’re also not sure we like Holland’s attitude about the fight.

Why Bet on Santiago Ponzinibbio?

Ponzinibbio might not have the appeal of Holland, but the 36-year-old Argentine is capable of producing an upset.

He defeated Alex Morono with a third-round knockout at UFC 282, which put him back on the map in this division. That came at catchweight, which Holland wanted to fight at, but he’s well-suited to fighting at welterweight.

The 30-6 fighter has plenty of wins on his record, so he can never be overlooked. However, he needs to match Holland in the explosiveness department.

Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Final Betting Analysis:

Holland is the more accomplished fighter, and although he can be tough to like at times, his talent is undeniable.

Knowing Holland’s instincts as a showman, we imagine he’ll try to kick the crap out of his opponent. The volume will be Holland’s friend because Ponzinibbio could easily put him out with a single shot.

Ponzinibbio bobs his shoulders and wings his hooks; he’s strong but not efficient, and I have some cardio concerns.

There are windows where Holland can bomb in with a hook or high kick, and we think he’ll find them on April 8.

Perhaps Ponzinibbio can dance around Holland’s onslaught, but we reckon he’ll get caught before 15 minutes are up.

UFC 287: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Christian Rodriguez

Why Bet on Raul Rosas Jr.?

Rosas made waves when he debuted on the Contender Series at just 17, winning a dominant unanimous decision against future TUF competitor Mando Gutierrez. While it was a bit gimmicky to feature Raul while still 17 – especially considering he was weeks shy of his 18th birthday – he still showed ability far beyond his years.

Rosas used his elite-level grappling in both his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut, picking up a submission victory in the latter. His statistics in the Tale of the Tape section above consider both fights.

Unlike some grapplers who start in MMA as pure wrestlers or jiu-jitsu players, Rosas has built his game specifically for MMA. He excels at “open-mat” takedowns, but he’s strong against the fence as well.

Why Bet on Christian Rodriguez?

While Rodriguez has a solid scrambling ability and is capable of getting back to his feet, he has a bad habit of exposing his back when doing so. He’s gotten away with it thus far, but Rosas is a far superior submission grappler than his past opponents.

Rodriguez does have strong striking though, mixing aggressive boxing with the occasional flashy kick or spinning attack.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Christian Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:

Rosas started his martial arts training as a boxer, though he’s yet to show much standup striking in the UFC.

Given his age and athletic ability, I’d expect him to be making rapid strides in that department. At the very least, the takedown threat he presents should keep Rodriguez on the back foot during striking exchanges.

Rodriguez likely needs to keep this one standing to have much of a shot. While he’s a solid grappler himself – picking up an anaconda choke in his last fight – he’s also a bit green on the ground.

He’ll probably want to avoid any flashy kick or spinning attack this fight, though, as Rosas would use that as an opportunity to jump on his back or force a takedown.

While this fight is a definite step up for Rosas, Rodriguez’s style is ill-suited to contend with “El Niño Problema.”

UFC 287: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Curtis

Why Bet on Kelvin Gastelum?

Moving to Middleweight paid immediate dividends for Kelvin Gastelum (17-8), who went 3-1 (1 NC) to earn himself an interim title shot.

He now sits at 1-5 in his last six appearances, including a decision loss to Jared Cannonier his last time out.

He fights for the first time in nearly 20 months because of injuries.

Why Bet on Chris Curtis?

The out-of-nowhere rise through the ranks for Chris Curtis (30-9) came to a halt at the hands of Jack Hermansson, who used lateral movement to snap “The Action Man’s” eight-fight win streak.

He got back on track five months later with a nasty knockout of Joaquin Buckley that earned him “Performance of the Night.”

Fifteen of his 18 stoppage wins have come by knockout.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Curtis Final Betting Analysis:

Next to Ian Heinisch — the one man Gastelum’s managed to beat in almost five years —, Curtis is Gastelum’s most winnable matchup in a while.

“The Action Man” is a long-time Welterweight and hasn’t even attempted a takedown in the Octagon, taking Gastelum’s biggest bugbears out of the equation.

That said, we still favor Curtis against most people willing to stay in the pocket with him.

Curtis has a significant reach advantage, a rock-solid chin, and generally throws a fair bit more volume than Gastelum, which is enough to get the nod.

It’s a coin flip, but expect Curtis to narrowly outwork him for a unanimous decision.

UFC 287: Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Luana Pinheiro

Why Bet on Michelle Waterson-Gomez?

Michell Waterson-Gomez (18-10) put herself on the brink of contender status with three straight wins, all of them numerical upsets.

The momentum wasn’t to last, as she went on to lose four of her next five.

Why Bet on Luana Pinheiro?

Pinheiro capped off a six-fight winning streak by knocking out Stephanie Frausto on the Contender Series.

Her subsequent Octagon career has seen her beat Randa Markos via disqualification and claim her second-ever decision win at Sam Hughes’ expense six months later.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Luana Pinheiro Final Betting Analysis:

On paper, this is Pinheiro’s fight to lose. She’s younger, bigger, the heavier hitter, and the superior takedown artist.

If she fights to anywhere near the best of her abilities, there’s not a whole lot Waterson-Gomez can do to her.

There’d usually be a “however” or “but” here, but we can’t think of an objection.

Pinheiro’s judo is too potent for Waterson-Gomez to initiate any ground exchanges, so the only way the latter wins is if she pulls the former into a pure striking match and edges it on ineffective volume.

While we’ve seen better fighters fumble more winnable matches, Pinheiro’s power and takedowns are sufficiently superior to earn her the nod.

UFC 287: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joseph Pyfer

Why Bet on Gerald Meerschaert?

Undaunted by a 2-5 skid, Gerald Meerschaert (35-15) rattled off three consecutive finishes to re-establish himself as a Middleweight of note.

Though he fell to Krzysztof Jotko his next time out, a club-and-sub of Bruno Silva returned him to the win column and earned him his 33rd professional finish.

Why Bet on Joseph Pyfer?

Two years after losing to Dustin Stoltzfus via injury on Contender Series, Joe Pyfer (10-2) returned to the program to knockout Ozzy Diaz and claim a UFC contract.

He made his promotional debut less than two months later, flattening Alen Amedovski for his first post-fight bonus.

He’s knocked out seven professional foes and submitted two others.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joseph Pyfer Final Betting Analysis:

Strip away Pyfer’s knockout hype and Baldfather endorsement and you get a strong, heavy-handed wrestler who’s yet to face an opponent of Meerschaert’s caliber. He does, however, have the means to pass this test.

Meerschaert is an opportunistic finisher, utilizing his great gas tank to survive until his opponents slow down and leave openings. Against someone with stout fundamentals who doesn’t make a ton of mistakes (like Jotko) his inability to force favorable engagements comes back to bite him.

Pyfer will, however, have to fight smart and avoid getting caught up in his hype. So long as he stays composed, doesn’t get pulled into a pace he can’t sustain, and remembers to use his takedowns if Meerschaert starts building any momentum, he should be able to clip Meerschaert inside the first five minutes.

UFC 287: Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman

Why Bet on Karl Williams?

An upset decision over Jimmy Lawson on Contender Series extended Karl Williams’ (8-1) win streak to four and earned him a UFC contract.

He ultimately debuted seven months later, leaning on his wrestling to claim a decisive victory over Lukasz Brzeski.

He steps in for Chris Barnett on a week’s notice for his second fight in less than one month.

Why Bet on Chase Sherman?

After nearly two years away from the promotion, Chase Sherman (16-11) scored his first UFC win since 2017, knocking out Ike Villanueva.

He enters the cage this Saturday having lost five of six, though he did claim “Performance of the Night” for his finish of Jared Vanderaa.

All but one of his professional wins have come by knockout.

Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman Final Betting Analysis:

Williams is, to put it mildly, a much less favorable matchup than the inconsistent and undersized Barnett.

Sherman has never had an answer for persistent wrestlers, as seen in his quick submission losses to Jake Collier and Alexandr Romanov.

Williams’ hands are also fast enough that we wouldn’t favor Sherman too heavily in a pure striking battle, either, much less with the threat of takedowns looming over his head.

All Williams has to do to win here is follow the same gameplan he utilized against Brzeski, which Sherman flat-out doesn’t have the means to stop. Expect another grind-heavy victory for the Contender Series product.

UFC 287: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Lupita Godinez

Why Bet on Cynthia Calvillo?

Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) went 5-1-1 as a UFC Strawweight before making a successful Flyweight debut at Jessica Eye’s expense.

Subsequent efforts proved trickier, resulting in a four-fight losing streak that saw her stopped twice.

Her professional finishes are split 3/2 between submissions and knockouts.

Why Bet on Lupita Godinez?

Lupita Godinez’s (8-3) perfect (5-0) professional start saw her defeat Vanessa Demopoulos for LFA’s Strawweight title in her promotional debut.

She currently sits at 3-3 in the Octagon, most recently suffering a decision loss to Angela Hill that snapped a two-fight win streak.

Cynthia Calvillo vs. Lupita Godinez Final Betting Analysis:

The gap between Godinez’s skills and her ability to use them properly is incredible.

She has this bizarre knack for fighting in the most self-destructive fashion imaginable; she exclusively grappled Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina despite holding a clear boxing edge and almost exclusively boxed Angela Hill despite holding a clear wrestling edge.

Luckily for her, she seems to have an edge over the floundering Calvillo in both areas.

This isn’t to say she can’t still find a way to fumble things, just that Calvillo’s looked so damn bad of late that even Godinez’s penchant for self-destruction can’t get me to pick against her.

In short, Godinez’s heavier hands and strong takedowns should carry her to victory.

UFC 287: Trey Ogden vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Why Bet on Trey Ogden?

Trey Ogden (16-5) fought his way into UFC via “Lookin’ for a Fight”, only to drop a narrow split decision to Jordan Leavitt in his UFC debut.

An upset over the hot prospect, Daniel Zellhuber, put him back in the mix, though March 25, 2023, clash with Manuel Torres fell through after a medical issue bounced “El Loco” from the weigh-ins.

He steps in for Nikolas Motta — who suffered a gnarly cut in training — on less than two weeks’ notice.

Why Bet on Ignacio Bahamondes?

A front kick finish of Edson Gomez sent Ignacio Bahamondes (13-4) to the Octagon and made him a favorite in his UFC debut, which saw him drop a split decision to John Makdessi.

He went on to flatten Roosevelt Roberts with a bonus-winning wheel kick, then nudge his UFC record back over .500 by submitting Rongzhu six months later.

This marks his first fight in more than one year because of visa issues.

Trey Ogden vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Final Betting Analysis:

Ogden had a very good chance of scoring his second consecutive upset over Torres, who’s yet to prove he can handle someone with Ogden’s ground skills.

His outlook’s not quite as rosy against Bahamondes, a much more seasoned veteran with a rangy, kick-heavy approach who figures to give Ogden fits. “La Jaula” also boasts rock-solid takedown defense, and considering the sort of volume he usually throws, Ogden can’t expect him to sleepwalk through the fight like Zellhuber did.

There’s just not much going Ogden’s way in this match, especially since he lacks the power to decisively punish Bahamondes’ shaky defense.

Odds are that Bahamondes takes him apart at the range for a mid-round accumulation stoppage.

UFC 287: Steve Garcia vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Why Bet on Steve Garcia?

Steve Garcia (13-5) torched Desmond Torres on Contender Series for his second-straight first-round finish but walked away empty-handed thanks to missing weight.

After missing weight again for a fight with Jose Mariscal, he stepped up on short notice to join UFC, where he’s alternated losses and wins through four appearances.

Why Bet on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke?

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10) entered UFC amid a 7-1 run but proved unable to topple Joshua Culibao in his promotional debut.

“Wolverine” now finds himself on a three-fight winning streak that features two upset decisions and his infamous 70-second finish of Darrick Minner.

His 29 professional finishes include 19 by (technical) knockout.

Steve Garcia vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Final Betting Analysis:

Garcia demolished Chase Hooper when we’d assumed he’d get torched. This figures to be a trickier assignment, though.

While Nuerdanbieke lacks Hooper’s fluidity on the mat, he’s a far stronger offensive wrestler than “The Dream” and has shown off enough striking improvement to at least survive Garcia’s haymakers on the feet.

Though still the more dangerous of the two in the stand-up, Garcia figures to have a much tougher time planting his feet and unloading bombs when doing so leaves his hips open to Nuerdanbieke’s takedowns.

He hasn’t shown the technique and composure to employ the measured approach Culibao used to defuse “Wolverine,” either, so expect his over-eagerness to get him taken down and controlled for most of the 15 minutes.

UFC 287: Sam Hughes vs. Jaqueline Amorim

Why Bet on Sam Hughes?

Sam Hughes (7-5) roared back from a winless (0-2) UFC start by upsetting Istela Nunes and Elise Reed back to back.

She couldn’t quite make it three straight against Piera Rodriguez, who racked up five takedowns en route to a unanimous decision win.

Why Bet on Jaqueline Amorim?

American Top Team’s Jacqueline Amorim (6-0) collected several accolades in international Brazilian jiu-jitsu — including medals at both the World and World No-Gi Championships — before making her professional mixed martial arts (MMA) debut in 2020.

She’s since torn through LFA’s Strawweight division, culminating in a 2022 campaign that saw her win and defend its title with submission finishes.

All of her wins have come in the first round, five of them in less than two minutes apiece.

Sam Hughes vs. Jaqueline Amorim Final Betting Analysis:

Hughes’ takedown defense doesn’t measure up to her takedown offense. That looks like the deciding factor here; while she’s far more seasoned than Amorim and a massively superior striker, she doesn’t have an answer for “Jacque’s” excellent top game.

That said, Amorim isn’t the most overpowering takedown artist out there and has no experience past the first round.

It’s very feasible that Hughes either successfully sprawls and brawls or survives early danger to take over once Amorim slows down.

Between how often Rodriguez got Hughes down and Amorim’s submission skills, though, it seems likelier that Amorim drags her to the mat in the opening minutes and polishes her off before ever seeing deep water.