UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on July 6, 2023 12:40 pm by Erwin Noguera

Welcome to the UFC International Fight Week, where we usually get one of the most stacked and interesting cards of the year, and now, in 2023, this is no exception. This event will be taking place in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and we will be witnessing two title fights to top a stacked 14-bout fight card.

There are multiple interesting details when it comes to this fight card, and one of them is the fact that we have 5 Mexican representatives. The First two are in the title fights, as Yair Rodriguez challenges Alexander Volkanovski to Unify the belt, and the second is Brandon Moreno’s Defense against an old rival Alexandre Pantoja.

The other 3 representatives are the undefeated Yazmin Jauregui, Jesus Aguilar, and the UFC Debutant, Edgar Chairez, who are all looking to showcase the talent that Baja California, Mexico is exporting into the UFC.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

When:

Saturday, July 8th, at 12:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Alexander Volkanovski -416 / Yair Rodriguez +293

Brandon Moreno -204 / Alexandre Pantoja +158

Robert Whittaker -416 / Dricus Du Plessis +292

Dan Hooker +200 / Jalin Turner -263

Bo Nickal -3333 / Valentine Woodburn +977

Robbie Lawler +210 / Niko Price -277

Jack Della Maddalena -1111 / Josiah Harrell +583

Yazmin Jauregui -416 / Denise Gomes +295

Jimmy Crute -125 / Alonzo Menifield -102

Edgar Chairez +579 / Tatsuro Taira -1000

Vitor Petrino -285 / Marcin Prachnio +214

Cameron Saaiman -555 / Terrence Mitchell +369

Shannon Ross +119 / Jesus Aguilar -151

Kamuela Kirk +118 / Esteban Ribovics -149

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

Why Bet on Alexander Volkanovski?

Volkanovski is the best featherweight in the sport, and arguably the best 145lbs fighter of all time. The 34-year-old Aussie is 12-1 overall in the UFC, with 12 straight wins over featherweight opponents and his lone defeat coming against Islam Makhachev, who is arguably the best MMA fighter in the world right now.

Although Volkanovski lost to Makhachev, the fight was about as close as it gets, and the fact that he performed so well up a weight class against a bigger opponent was nothing short of outstanding. He has elite skills in every facet of the game and he has no weaknesses.

He’s one of the best MMA fighters on the planet right now, and there is a reason why the oddsmakers have pegged him as a huge favorite here.

Why Bet on Yair Rodriguez?

Rodriguez has a big opportunity on his hands here and he is going to do everything he can to shock the world and pull off a huge upset to claim the belt. The 30-year-old Mexican has been in the UFC since 2014 and he has a 10-2, 1 NC overall record in the Octagon.

He has been so exciting to watch, showing off impressive skills on the feet with his striking while also exhibiting dangerous submissions on the mat.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Betting Analysis:

Rodriguez has performed at a high level in the UFC, but he’s going up against maybe the sport’s best fighters in Volkanovski. One thing to note is the Mexican’s 63% takedown defense, which is poor. In a fight where his best chance to win will be on the feet, look for Alexander to force the grappling.

Although Rodriguez is a creative striker who is highly entertaining to watch, this is a bad matchup for him. Volkanovski is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet right now, and we favor him to win this fight as we can see him being better on the feet and the mat.

UFC 290: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

Why Bet on Brandon Moreno?

You really can’t say much more about Brandon Moreno. His career story of being cut by the UFC and then becoming one of the biggest stars in the sport of MMA is nothing short of incredible. The king of the Flyweights comes from finishing his 4 fight rivalry against Deiveson Figueiredo, becoming the undisputed champion for a second time.

At only 29 years old, Moreno has a professional record of 21-6-2 with 16 finishes.

Why Bet on Alexandre Pantoja?

Pantoja is a 33-year-old Brazilian fighter that trains out of the American Top Team for his camps. He has a professional record of 25-5 with 18 finishes. An interesting thing about Pantoja’s career is he beat both Moreno and Kai Kara-France in the TUF tournament back in 2016.

The Brazilian brawler loves to get into crazy exchanges where he usually finds himself on top. This is a dangerous fighting style because even the best in the world can be beaten by Pantoja at any moment.

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Betting Analysis:

This one is very tough to pick because Pantoja has the confidence that he knows he can finish Moreno and beat him. However, the latter is just too good, and you need to trust his preparation and mindset.

Brandon wants to prove that he’s the best in the world, and you know he wants a win over Alexandre to even the score.

If you are 100% on Pantoja, the only way he is going to win is a finish, and we believe that the Mexican champion arrived to stay and that he will make a statement as he succeeds in his first defense.

UFC 290: Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Why Bet on Robert Whittaker?

Whittaker is one of the most decorated fighters on the current roster, and he’s only 32 years old. Before we get into the numbers, it must be known that if Adesanya never had fought in the UFC, Whittaker would probably still be the reigning champion to this day.

“Bobby Knuckles” is 24-6 with 14 finishes under his belt. He will be giving up some size this weekend, but he has better cardio and movement.

Why Bet on Dricus Du Plessis?

Du Plessis came into the UFC as an exciting prospect with the look and personality of a superstar, with an exciting style to back it up. At 29 years old, he holds a 19-2 professional record with 18 finishes–surprisingly 10 of which are submissions.

The South African is currently rewriting middleweight striking record books with 6.72 sig. strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 3.73.

Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Betting Analysis:

Du Plessis comes into this fight to Face an Uphill Battle. One little tidbit to remember is that Whittaker has been training for 5-round fights since 2016, so these 15-minute fights are easy for him.

Dricus has a severely smaller level of experience than his opponent this weekend. With this fight broken down in terms of fighting technique from both guys, it’s clear to see that Robert is the much sharper fighter and has one of the best fight systems in the UFC.

Du Plessis is successful in using his strange techniques and unorthodox style to catch people, but we believe that won’t be the case with the Australian in this match.

UFC 290: Dan Hooker vs. Jalin Turner

Why Bet on Dan Hooker?

Hooker just recently bounced back after a difficult streak of losses. “The Hangman” doesn’t have a ton of momentum right now, but he remains one of the most experienced veterans at 155 pounds, the type of fighter who’s seen it all against some of the best in the world.

Why Bet on Jalin Turner?

Turner rode a massive five-fight finish streak into his first clash opposite a Top 10 Lightweight last time out, taking Mateusz Gamrot to the edge back in March. Unfortunately for “The Tarantula,” the judges went against him, so now he’s looking to rebound against a well-known name.

Dan Hooker vs. Jalin Turner Betting Analysis:

Hooker is a crafty kickboxer. He’s no defensive wizard but can do massive damage with each of the eight limbs, and he’s got plenty of tricky setups to connect on huge power shots. He’s also a skilled grappler, which helps him mix up his attack on occasion.

If Hooker gets on top, he could very possibly end the fight, so it’s at least worth an attempt or two to give Turner more to consider. The game plan here for Turner is simple: put hands on Dan’s chin! Hooker seems to have lost a step in terms of speed and durability, a pair of traits that have always been essential to his success.

Jalin is younger and has a lot less mileage on him, so he should be favored in a brawl, and a brawl is just what we expect, so our pick is on him.

UFC 290: Bo Nickal vs. Valentine Woodburn

Why Bet on Bo Nickal?

Nickal, 27, exploded into the MMA spotlight in 2022 when he won two consecutive fights in the same season of Dana White’s Contender Series. In March, he made his promotional debut at UFC 285 when he submitted Jamie Pickett in just under three minutes.

Why Bet on Valentine Woodburn?

On one of the promotion’s biggest cards of the year, Woodburn (7-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) will replace injured Tresean Gore on five days’ notice to fight a rising star. “The Animal”, 29, was originally slated to fight Aug. 29 on “Dana White’s Contender Series” against Marco Tulio.

Instead, he won’t have to compete for a UFC contract. He is the middleweight titleholder for Combat Night, a Florida regional promotion, and in seven professional bouts, he has five TKO stoppages to his name.

Bo Nickal vs. Valentine Woodburn Betting Analysis:

Valentine Woodburn’s late entry into the matchup positions him as a significant underdog heading into UFC 290. With limited time for preparation and facing an established prospect like Nickal, the odds seem stacked against him.

However, the unpredictability of mixed martial arts ensures that anything can happen inside the Octagon. Woodburn will undoubtedly be eager to prove himself and capitalize on this opportunity to make a name for himself on the grand stage, but we are expecting Bo Nickal to wrestle his way to victory in this clash.

UFC 290: Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price

Why Bet on Robbie Lawler?

Robbie Lawler (29-16) established himself as a Welterweight great by beating Johny Hendricks for the UFC title in 2014 and subsequently defending it in back-to-back barnburners. Now 41 years old, “Ruthless” enters the cage 1-5 in his last six, the sole victory coming over fellow veteran Nick Diaz in 2021.

Unsurprisingly, 21 of his 22 professional stoppage wins have come by knockout.

Why Bet on Niko Price?

After joining UFC with a perfect professional record (8-0), Niko Price (15-6) rumbled his way to a 5-3 (1 NC) Octagon start, winning four post-fight bonuses along the way. He’s 1-3 (1 NC) since most recently suffering a comeback knockout loss to Phil Rowe in Dec. 2022.

Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price Betting Analysis:

Lawler’s fundamental weakness is that he can’t handle the volume. Unless he’s in full-on murder mode, overly willing to wait his turn rather than punch with his opponent. If you just never let him have his turn, as Rafael Dos Anjos, Colby Covington, and Bryan Barberena did, you can bury him with little resistance.

While not what we’d call a swarmer, Price is a high-output power puncher. Even though his striking technique pales in comparison to Lawler’s, his standard approach is one that modern Robbie seemingly can’t handle. He outworks and beats down Lawler for a mid-round finish.

UFC 290: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Josiah Harrell

Why Bet on Jack Della Maddalena?

He had to make his first trip to the judges to do it, but Jack Della Maddalena (14-2) secured a UFC contract by overpowering Ange Loosa on Contender Series. He quickly returned to his finishing ways in the Octagon, racking up four consecutive first-round finishes and scoring three post-fight bonuses along the way.

His professional stoppage wins are split 11:2 between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Josiah Harrell?

Josiah Harrell (7-0) went 6-0-1 in the amateurs before turning professional in 2020. He’s yet to see the judges in the paid ranks, dispatching four via knockout and three by submission. “Muscle Hamster” replaces sick Sean Brady on less than one week’s notice.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Josiah Harrell Betting Analysis:

It’s not as grotesque a mismatch as last week’s Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson debacle, but it’s hard to see this being competitive. Harrell is four inches shorter than Della Maddalena, gives up six inches of reach, weighed in at 162 pounds last time out, is massively out-gunned in both technique and power and isn’t a sufficiently strong wrestler to take Jack out of his wheelhouse.

That’s the long and short of it. Indeed, Josiah is a decent prospect going up against a proven contender with the style to eat him alive. In the end, Della Maddalena clips him with a counter and puts him away in the opening minutes.

UFC 290: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes

Why Bet on Yazmin Jauregui?

Yazmin Jauregui (10-0) cut her teeth in Combate, ultimately winning a one-night, three-fight tournament in 2021 to earn a spot in the Octagon. Though she spent a year on the sidelines, she made up for lost time with a pair of entertaining victories over Iasmin Lucindo and Istela Nunes.

She’s knocked out seven opponents as a professional.

Why Bet on Denise Gomes?

Less than one month after beating Rayanne dos Santos on Contender Series, Denise Gomes (7-2) made her UFC debut against Loma Lookboonmee, struggling with her foe’s striking and grappling en route to her first loss since her 2017 pro debut. She was quite a bit more successful against fellow DWCS vet Bruna Brasil, whom she smashed into submission midway through the second round.

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes Betting Analysis:

While Jauregui’s ridiculous aggression will always leave her vulnerable even against ostensibly “lesser” strikers, we like her chances here.

Gomes is every bit as willing to knuckle down and trade heat but is noticeably slower than Yazmin and every bit as defensively porous. Milana Dudieva dropped her twice with counters, which strikes me as a bigger red flag than Jauregui getting clipped by the much more dangerous Istela Nunes.

There’s a potential X-factor in Denise’s wrestling, but considering how poorly it held up against Lookboonmee, it shouldn’t pose a threat to Jauregui. The latter clips her in a firefight for her second UFC victory over young Brazilian finishers.

UFC 290: Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

Why Bet on Jimmy Crute?

Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) looked poised to enter title contention after a 4-1 UFC start saw him claim four finishes and two post-fight bonuses. He’s winless since, suffering consecutive stoppage losses to Anthony Smith and Jamahal Hill before a destructive draw with Menifield.

Why Bet on Alonzo Menifield?

An explosive pair of UFC knockouts for Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1) gave way to momentum-halting losses to Devin Clark and Ovince Saint Preux. He now sits at 4-1-1 in his last six, the sole loss a controversial one to William Knight.

He’s ended all but one of his pro fights inside the distance, nine of them via knockout.

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield Betting Analysis:

For our money, Menifield needs fewer adjustments than Crute to emerge victorious. He knows that he can hurt his foe and shut down his grappling while he’s fresh; victory is his if he can just pace himself.

Crute, on the other hand, needs to fix the serious defensive issues baked into his striking style. He failed to do so after falling to Jamahal Hill and we doubt he’ll do so here. He has an outside chance of wearing down Menifield with his wrestling, but that seems less probable than the latter finding his chin again and sealing the deal this time.

In the end, Menifield uses his speed and power to once again clip Crute early and pour it on for the finish.

UFC 290: Edgar Chairez vs. Tatsuro Taira

Why Bet on Edgar Chairez?

Edgar Chairez (10-4) started strong in his Contender Series battle with Clayton Carpenter, dropping his favored foe with a counter left hook, but found himself out-worked down the stretch en route to a decision loss.

After rebounding with a 63-second submission win in UWC, he took on Gianni Vazquez for Fury FC’s Flyweight title, missing weight but emerging victorious with an armbar finish that went viral as one of the most horrifying late stoppages in recent memory. “Pitbull” takes this fight on less than two weeks’ notice.

Why Bet on Tatsuro Taira?

Tatsuro Taira (13-0) went undefeated as an amateur (9-0) and was perfect as a professional (10-0) before leaving the Japanese circuit for the Octagon. There, he picked up three one-sided victories over Carlos Candelario, C.J. Vergara, and Jesus Aguilar, the latter two of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” His 10 professional finishes include seven by submission.

Edgar Chairez vs. Tatsuro Taira Betting Analysis:

It seems like the UFC doesn’t know what it is doing with Taira. He’s young, entertaining, and a consistent finisher — everything about him screams potential star. However, UFC matchmakers insist on burying him in the “Prelims” and feeding him out-matched Contender Series veterans.

When it comes to this fight, Chairez not only has a chance but his aggressive stand-up fight and creative set-ups to finish the fight could be Taira’s outdoing, even if he is the stronger wrestler and submission artist.

If Chairez can give a consistent output in this fight, and put the pressure on the undefeated fighter, we expect him to make a impressive upset by finishing Tatsuro against all odds.

UFC 290: Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio

Why Bet on Vitor Petrino?

A knockout of UFC veteran Gadzhimurad Antigulov sent Vitor Petrino (8-0) to Contender Series, where “Pitbull” stopped Rodolfo Bellato to claim a UFC contract. His debut pitted him against fellow Contender Series alum, Anton Turkalj, whom Vitor out-struck en route to a unanimous decision win. Four of his six knockout wins have come in the first round.

Why Bet on Marcin Prachnio?

Marcin Prachnio (16-6) went through one of the worst UFC starts in recent memory thanks to three consecutive first-round knockout losses. He’s since clawed his way out with wins in three of his last four bouts, the most recent of them a leg kick clinic against an immobile William Knight in Feb. 2023.

Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio Betting Analysis:

After that string of destructive defeats, we couldn’t imagine Prachnio even staying conscious through four UFC bouts, much less winning three of them. Unfortunately for him, that run ends here. Petrino hits like a truck and has strong cardio besides, so even if he survives the first few minutes, he can’t expect his foe to fall apart down the stretch as Khalil Rountree did.

Petrino has also been hurt before, but I trust his ability to fight through adversity much more than I do Prachnio’s. Even acknowledging the latter’s improvements, the first is just too fast and too powerful for him — expect a quick finish.

UFC 290: Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell

Why Bet on Cameron Saaiman?

Cameron Saaiman (8-0) went from EFC champ to UFC signee with an upset knockout of Josh Wang-Kim on Contender Series. He’s since racked up a pair of Octagon wins over Steven Koslow and Mana Martinez, both marred by multiple fouls. “MSP” has knocked out five professional opponents and submitted one other.

Why Bet on Terrence Mitchell?

Terrance Mitchell (14-2) brought the Alaska FC Flyweight belt into The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24, where Kai Kara-France stopped him in 30 seconds. He fought just once in nearly six years afterward, returning to regular action in April 2022 and picking up a trio of wins.

He steps in for Christian Rodriguez on less than three weeks’ notice.

Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell Betting Analysis:

To be blunt, Mitchell’s record is smoke and mirrors. Alaska FC is one of the most notorious record-padding leagues in the sport and Alaska Combat Entertainment — where he’s spent his last three fights — might be even sketchier.

Nothing in his career has prepared him for Saaiman; beating “MSP” requires keeping a level head in the face of overwhelming offense, and the last time anyone asked that of Terrence, he fell apart in seconds against Kara-France.

The one thing Mitchell has going for him is a willingness to wrestle, which remains Saaiman’s biggest weakness. That said, it’s hard to see him finishing his foe on the ground or even keeping him there for long. In short, Saaiman weathers some early grappling trouble to batter Terrence into submission.

UFC 290: Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar

Why Bet on Shannon Ross?

Despite suffering a knockout loss to Vinicius Salvador on Contender Series —his second defeat in his previous three fights — Ross made his UFC walk against Kleydson Rodrigues six months later. It wasn’t to be a Cinderella story, as “KR” flattened “The Cannon” in 59 seconds.

Why Bet on Jesus Aguilar?

Two years after choking out Edgar Chairez for UWC’s Flyweight title after enduring a hell of a storm in that fight, Aguilar used the same technique to dispatch Erisson Ferreira on Contender Series. This set up a clash with top prospect Tatsuro Taira, who tapped the +750 underdog late in the first round.

Five of his six submission wins have come by guillotine.

Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar Betting Analysis:

As deeply flawed as Aguilar is, it’s tough to have any faith in Ross. The raw aggression Jesus brings to the table figures to work a treat, as Shannon gets dropped with staggering regularity.

Though Shannon does have some height and reach advantages, he’s not skilled enough to keep his foe at bay or durable enough to survive when he gets inside.

The only concern we have about Aguilar is his tendency to jump on hopeless guillotines, which could conceivably let Ross grind out some rounds from the top. More likely, though, the first clubs-and-subs his way to his first UFC victory.

UFC 290: Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics

Why Bet on Kamuela Kirk?

Undaunted by consecutive losses to Billy Quarantillo and Bruno Souza, Kamuela Kirk (12-5) mauled his way past Guilherme Santos and Daniel Swain before beating Makwan Amirkhani in the Octagon on a one-month turnaround. The run wasn’t to last, as he succumbed to a Damon Jackson arm-triangle choke nine months later.

He fights for the first time in 16 months.

Why Bet on Esteban Ribovics?

Esteban Ribovics (11-1) earned a pair of regional titles on the South American scene before stopping Thomas Paull in 90 seconds on Contender Series. The win earned “El Gringo” a UFC contract, which kicked off in March 2023 with a decision loss to late replacement Loik Radzhabov at UFC 285.

All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, six of them in the first round.

Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics Betting Analysis:

We were true believers in Kirk ahead of his UFC debut, but he has been deeply underwhelming in the Octagon. His seemingly solid wrestling is nowhere to be found and he got overpowered on the feet by Jackson, ostensibly a far more limited striker. Unless he was killing himself to make 145 pounds, it’s hard to see this going well for him. That’s because Ribovics is by far the more destructive of the two on the feet, and even the hulking Radzhabov struggled to control him on the ground.

Kirk only wins this fight if he can consistently take down Ribovics and keep him there, which seems beyond his capabilities. In the end, Esteban lands the heavier blows and uses his kimura attack to neutralize Kamuela’s grappling en route to a wide decision win.