UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on July 27, 2023 10:09 pm by Erwin Noguera

The UFC is once more handing us a great numbered event, and this time, we are taking the trip to Salt Lake City, Utah, as we walk into the Vivint Arena to take a seat and watch an exciting event. This event has 12 fights in it, but we are going to have quite interesting match-ups.

First of all, the main event rematch between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje is going to be quite the fun fight, as these two clash for the Vacant BMF Title, which is just an extra belt used to promote what should be an exciting fight with a ton of star power.

The Co-main event is the fight between former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, who welcomes the Former Middleweight Champion, Alex Pereira on his LH debut.

The rest of the main card is pure star power, as we get exciting clashes between “Wonderboy” Thompson vs. Michel Pereira, a clash between Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green, and Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland. The prelims are also stacked, so we expect an excellent event from start to end.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, July 29th, at 6:30 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Dustin Poirier -153 / Justin Gaethje +121

Jan Błachowicz -119 / Alex Pereira -107

Stephen Thompson -153 / Michel Pereira +121

Tony Ferguson +289 / Bobby Green -400

Michael Chiesa +118 / Kevin Holland -151

Trevin Giles +245 / Gabriel Bonfim -333

Derrick Lewis +179 / Marcos Rogério de Lima -232

Roman Kopylov -217 / Claudio Ribeiro +168

Jake Matthews -270 / Darrius Flowers +201

CJ Vergara -156 / Vinicius Salvador +123

Matthew Semelsberger -222 / Uros Medic +168

Miranda Maverick -303 / Priscilla Cachoeira +226

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

Why Bet on Dustin Poirier?

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier is the No. 2 ranked lightweight contender, sitting just one spot ahead of Gaethje. He’s coming off a third-round submission victory against Michael Chandler last November which improved his record to 4-1 in his last five fights.

Poirier has been competing in the UFC since 2011, compiling a 21-6 record in the octagon and picking up 13 performance bonuses. The 34-year-old is a complete fighter who combines some of the best technical boxing in the promotion with good grappling ability.

Why Bet on Justin Gaethje?

In Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje’s most recent bout, he defeated Rafael Fiziev by majority decision in March to earn Performance of the Night honors. The 34-year-old is an aggressive fighter that loves to throw down and he has earned a performance bonus in nine of 11 career UFC bouts.

Despite having a background as an All-American wrestler, Gaethje rarely utilizes his wrestling except to defend against takedowns. He prefers to rely on his striking where he attacks his opponents with leg kicks and heavy hands.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Analysis:

The first showdown between these two saw Gaethje batter Poirier with leg kicks while the latter pieced up his rival with boxing combinations to get the finish. That was just the third fight in The Highlight’s UFC career and he was fresh off a knockout loss to Eddie Alvarez.

Since then, Gaethje has become a more patient and calculated fighter, while sharpening his footwork and upgrading his defense. Meanwhile, the Diamond has also improved, he’s still more-or-less the same fighter he was at the time. Another factor that could play a role is the high elevation at Salt Lake City with Gaethje used to training in Denver which is at an even higher altitude.

Cardio has never really been an issue for Poirier and he arrived in Utah a while ago and has been preparing for these conditions. Regardless of the elevation, we think this fight should be closer to a pick’em and will lean toward the Arizona native since he has made bigger strides since the first matchup.

UFC 291: Jan Błachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

Why Bet on Jan Błachowicz?

Blachowicz has a decent amount of experience when it comes to dealing with fighters from the weight class below him. The former light heavyweight champion may be coming off of a strange draw with Magomed Ankalaev, but a win here could get him right back into the title picture.

Initially stepping onto the UFC scene as a steady stalker with some amateur Muay Thai experience, Blachowicz has evolved into a solid counter striker with one of the better jabs in the division.

Why Bet on Alex Pereira?

Recently losing his middleweight title in a rematch with Israel Adesanya, Pereira has decided to give his body a break from his drastic cuts to 185 pounds and move up to the next division. He has fought at this weight class before as a kickboxer, but this will be his first time testing the 205-pound waters in MMA.

Thankfully for Pereira, he has the guidance of Glover Teixeira – the man who took the title from Blachowicz.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Betting Analysis:

Blachowicz is also one of the few fighters north of middleweight who check kicks, which is a skill that will likely come in handy considering his counterpart. That said, it’s his grappling that will be the big question in this fight.

Although Blachowicz hasn’t gone to his grappling as much offensively in recent years, the 40-year-old veteran is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has worked on his wrestling since moving his training camps back to Warsaw. If he elects to go to his grappling early or if Pereira comes in too hot, then it could be a long night for the Brazilian fighter.

A martial artist who spent the majority of his combat sports career striking, Alex still has a lot to prove when it comes to ground fighting. Aside from Blachowicz not being beyond violating the “position before submission” rule in jiu-jitsu, the 40-year-old fighter has traditionally had a troublesome gas tank.

So, unless the Poland native fights out of character and can score a fairly quick finish on the floor, then I suspect that he could find himself gasping for air at altitude in Rounds 2 and 3 and handing a decision victory to “Poatan”.

UFC 291: Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira

Why Bet on Stephen Thompson?

Thompson has a style all his own. We’ve never seen a striker who can utilize side kicks as effectively at such a high level, and his constant side-to-side darting creates offensive options and counters in a manner that very few men can replicate. Playing the matador is always his M.O., but some extra aggression may be warranted here.

Why Bet on Michel Pereira?

Pereira is a man who seems to defy physics. How a Welterweight can be so large and still have a reasonably solid gas tank is beyond all logic, but “Demolidor” pulls it off. Aside from being massive, Michel is a powerful and crafty range striker with underrated ground skills and a wealth of experience.

Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira Betting Analysis:

As mentioned, Pereira’s physicality could be a real issue along the fence, which means cage position is going to be hugely important. Of course, Thompson is very good at changing directions and keeping his feet moving, but Michel has a great presence inside the Octagon. Against an opponent who can move forward with confidence, it’s important that “Wonderboy” stands his ground a decent amount of the time.

Furthermore, a high pace would seem to benefit Stephen. Pereira’s weight cut does seem to affect him later in rounds, whereas he was able to push the pace harder through four rounds last time out against Kevin Holland. This ability to keep the fight going and his slick stand-up style is likely to hand “Wonderboy” the victory in this clash.

UFC 291: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Why Bet on Tony Ferguson?

Recent opinion has shifted on Ferguson, as many have devalued his historic win streak and taken potshots at his greatness. Those people suck and are merely the latest example of MMA’s incredible recency bias and “what have you done for me lately” mentality.

Make no mistake: Tony at his peak is one of the best Lightweights ever. As it stands, maybe returning to Lightweight can ignite a bit of a spark under “El Cucuy,” who looked truly abysmal opposite Diaz. If he can get his offense going, Ferguson has a chance here. Green is not a huge knockout puncher, and he generally likes to operate at the distance where Ferguson used to thrive.

Why Bet on Bobby Green?

Green has style. “King” fights with his hands low, relying on exceptional quickness and head movement to slip shots and manage the distance. He’s one of the best at sticking a jab, shoulder rolling/pulling their return, then sticking another 1-2.

Bobby remains unusually quick for a 36-year-old with 45 professional fights to his name.

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Betting Analysis:

Low kicks could be such a huge weapon for the former interim champion. Even in his slop fest against Diaz, he tore up his opponent’s calf. Against a jab and 1-2 heavy boxer, those same kicks could be massively helpful. More stabbing keep kicks could be useful as well, an important element of his game that Ferguson has been neglecting.

Based on recent performances, Green is going to be able to land… a lot. He still has to maintain a pace that he’s comfortable with for the full 15 minutes because if nothing else, Ferguson is still able to take a beating and fight back. The Latter’s back is obviously to the wall. He’s gotten smashed in his last five fights, featuring very few positive moments.

If he loses here, one has to assume that’s the end of the line for his UFC career. And unless Ferguson comes out looking truly rejuvenated somehow, losing to “El Cucuy” in 2023 would be a really bad sign for his future.

At some point, Green’s durability and speed will drop off too, and “King” has to prove that it hasn’t happened yet. We believe this will mark the end of “El Cucuy” in the UFC, with a decision victory for Bobby Green.

UFC 291: Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

Why Bet on Michael Chiesa?

Former TUF winner Michael Chiesa hasn’t been in the octagon in 19 months, and that was after a lopsided loss to Sean Brady. Before that, he was submitted by Vicente Luque.

“Maverick” does his best work on the ground and has 11 submission wins. Considering Holland’s vulnerabilities to wrestlers in the past, Chiesa is being given a better chance than most to spring an upset.

Why Bet on Kevin Holland?

Kevin Holland has freakish reach for a welterweight at 81 inches and he’s put it to good use with 14 knockouts. Though known for his striking, he is a BJJ black belt and has been trying to incorporate a ground game to mixed success over his last few fights.

Holland wasn’t in the best of spots getting stopped in back-to-back fights against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson where he showed his excellent striking power and limited fighting IQ. He got back on track three months ago, returning to form as he sparked out Santiago Ponzibibbio in the third round.

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Betting Analysis:

Holland’s struggles against wrestlers and grapplers do exist, but those struggles were against top grapplers and wrestlers at middleweight. Since moving down, he has looked great. The real weakness he has is his terrible fight IQ, which was evident as he had Thompson dead to rights on the ground, but opted to let him get up and the two resumed battling until he was stopped in the fourth.

Chiesa is nowhere near as technical of a striker as Thompson and struggled to get his ground game going in his last two fights. For all of his prowess on the ground, he’s susceptible to submissions, making Holland a big threat on the mat. Kevin won’t have to contend with a tricky striker or a massive wrestler bringing him down.

Michael is predictable with his striking and doesn’t have the size advantage that has beguiled his foe in the past, meaning that he’s going to need to find a way to bypass Holland’s abnormal reach and power to get him down, and we hardly doubt he will.

UFC 291: Trevin Giles vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Why Bet on Trevin Giles?

Trevin Giles (16-4) clawed his way out of an 0-2 hole by winning three straight, among them a noteworthy decision over Roman Dolidze. Another two-fight skid followed though he’s since bounced back with wins over Louis Cosce and Preston Parsons.

Why Bet on Gabriel Bonfim?

Six months after choking out Eduardo Garvon to win a Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title, Gabriel Bonfim (14-0) tapped Trey Waters on Contender Series. The win earned him a UFC contract, which he kicked off by submitting Mounir Lazzez in 49 seconds.

All of his wins have come inside the distance, 11 of them via submission.

Trevin Giles vs. Gabriel Bonfim Betting Analysis:

Bonfim still has his share of flaws that a patient, dialed-in veteran could exploit to great effect. We are just not convinced Giles qualifies because he’s far less dynamic than he used to be and he’s long been prone to questionable decision-making. And Gabriel’s hands and submissions skills are too sharp to allow those sorts of missteps.

We’d hesitate more on this pick if Giles still showed his former punching power, but as-is, he’s doomed to be overwhelmed by a more violent striker and opportunistic submission artist. Bonfim clips him early and finds his neck for another quick finish.

UFC 291: Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogério de Lima

Why Bet on Derrick Lewis?

Four consecutive victories earned Derrick Lewis (26-11) an interim title shot against undefeated Ciryl Gane, who dismantled “The Black Beast” en route to a third-round finish. Lewis rebounded by knocking out Chris Daukaus but has since dropped three straight, including a submission loss to Serghei Spivac his last time out.

Why Bet on Marcos Rogério de Lima?

After starting his UFC career 2-0, Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1) spent the next five years alternating losses and wins. He’s since found some consistency with four victories in his last five bouts, among them first-round finishes of Ben Rothwell and Andrei Arlovski.

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogério de Lima Betting Analysis:

On paper, Rogerio de Lima is custom-built to produce a classic Lewis comeback. “Pezao” is one of the most self-destructive fighters you’ll ever see thanks to poor cardio and an insistence on grappling even when he’s established a clear edge on the feet. Heck, we just saw him lose the third round to a one-legged Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

Even acknowledging that his recent defeats came to top-notch Heavyweights, though, his ability to execute is a big question mark. His classic “just get up” approach failed against Serghei Spivac and his punch resistance failed against Tai Tuivasa. In other words, it’s hard to trust him against a murderous puncher with strong takedowns.

Whether it’s Rogerio de Lima’s classic swarming assault, the quick takedown he employed against Andrei Arlovski or the patient approach that beat Cortes-Acosta, we think Rogerio will break Lewis down before “The Black Beast” can turn things around.

UFC 291: Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro

Why Bet on Roman Kopylov?

Roman Kopylov (10-2) initially struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, losing his first two bouts amid five fight cancelations. He appeared to find his groove in 2022 with a beatdown of Alessio Di Chirico, then followed that up by stopping Punahele Soriano four months later.

Why Bet on Claudio Ribeiro

Claudio Ribeiro (11-3) scored one of the wildest one-punch knockouts on Contender Series to score a UFC contract, only to fall to Abdul Razak Alhassan in his UFC debut. He was quite a bit more successful against Joseph Holmes, pounding out “Ugly Man Joe” for his seventh win in eight fights.

All 11 of his wins have come by knockout.

Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro Betting Analysis:

For fear of jinxing Kopylov, this seems like his most winnable UFC matchup to date. He’s by far the more technical boxer of the two, showed off great durability against heavy hitters like Albert Duraev and the aforementioned Soriano, and remains dangerous in the third round.

If Ribeiro can’t blitz him early, which seems beyond his abilities, Kopylov will take him apart. That’s the long and short of it because Roman isn’t going to fold and Claudio lacks the technique or the gas tank to keep the momentum once the initial assault fails.

In the end, a stout chin and sharp boxing should carry Kopylov to his third straight win.

UFC 291: Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers

Why Bet on Jake Matthews?

The move from 155 to 170 pounds for Jake Matthews (18-6) produced a 6-1 run that notably saw him defeat Li Jingliang. He’s 1-2 since a knockout of Andre Fialho sandwiched between losses to Sean Brady and Matthew Semelsberger. “The Celtic Kid” will enjoy a two-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach advantage.

Why Bet on Darrius Flowers?

Darrius Flowers (12-5-1) turned his professional career around with knockout wins in his first two LFA appearances, setting up a Contender Series opportunity against Amiran Gogoladze. Despite entering as a sizable underdog, “Beast Mode” emerged victorious by injuring Gogoladze with a slam.

He steps in for Miguel Baeza on less than two weeks’ notice, having originally planned to debut in Feb. 2023.

Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers Betting Analysis:

Flowers is unquestionably limited — he’s lethal from point-blank range, but otherwise much less impressive on the feet than you’d expect from a former professional boxer. At the same time, Matthews outright refused to wrestle one of the division’s weakest defensive grapplers in Semelsberger and took a ton of damage in the process.

Flowers has weirdly good takedown defense and sufficiently heavy hands to send Matthews to the mat. This is a gut feeling more than anything and we acknowledge that Matthews holds a ton of cards in this matchup, but we like Darrius to Hulk Smash his way to a shock finish in the opening minutes.

UFC 291: CJ Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador

Why Bet on CJ Vergara?

CJ Vergara (11-4-1) knocked out UFC vet Jacob Silva to win the Fury FC Flyweight title, then smashed Bruno Korea in 41 seconds to claim a UFC contract. He sits at 2-2 in the world’s largest fight promotion, most recently surviving a nightmarish first round to stop Daniel Lacerda in a “Fight of the Night.”

Why Bet on Vinicius Salvador?

Vinicius Salvador (14-5) extended his win streak to four with a contract-winning knockout of Shannon Ross on Contender Series. That led to a UFC debut against Victor Altamirano, who out-wrestled “Fenomeno” en route to a unanimous decision win. All of his wins have come inside the distance, 13 by knockout.

CJ Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador Betting Analysis:

With all due respect to Vergara, he’s got one of the uglier 2-2 Octagon records you’ll find. Only one of 15 media outlets had him beating Kleydson Rodriguez and Lacerda had him dead to rights before punching himself out.

Though Salvador is similarly underwhelmed against Altamirano, this seems much more winnable for him, as Vergara is a dedicated pressure fighter who’s yet to attempt a single takedown in UFC. Vinicius is too big, tough, and heavy-handed for him to overwhelm. Any protracted striking engagements are going to favor Salvador, and since that’s Vergara’s only plan of attack, all signs point to the Brazilian bludgeoning his way to his first UFC win.

UFC 291: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic

Why Bet on Matthew Semelsberger?

Matthew Semelsberger (11-5) earned his biggest win to date, overpowering Jake Matthews in Dec. 2022. He looked poised for a quick finish against Jeremiah Wells four months later but struggled with his foe’s wrestling skills on his way to a decision loss. “Semi the Jedi” has knocked out six professional opponents and knocked out one other.

Why Bet on Uros Medic?

Uros Medic (8-1) followed his Contender Series knockout of Mikey Gonzalez with a 100-second knockout of Aalon Cruz in his Octagon debut. Though he fell to Jalin Turner six months later, he returned to the win column in May 2022, stopping Omar Morales. He steps in for Yohan Lainesse on little more than one week’s notice.

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic Betting Analysis:

Semelsberger’s shortcomings have become painfully apparent. He struggles with both determined wrestlers and strikers who won’t willingly stay in the pocket with him. Luckily for him, Medic is neither — the AFC vet is all about aggression, speed, and power, putting him square in Semelsberger’s wheelhouse.

Unless Medic has been hiding a monster blast double this whole time, it’s hard to see him standing up to Semelsberger in a firefight, especially because he gives up a ton of reach and probably a decent amount of weight as well. In the end. “Semi the Jedi” clips him with that monster’s right hand midway through the first.

UFC 291: Miranda Maverick vs. Priscilla Cachoeira

Why Bet on Miranda Maverick?

Miranda Maverick (13-5) fought her way to a red-hot (3-0) UFC start, highlighted by a decision over Gillian Robertson. She’s since dropped three of five bouts, including a decision to Jasmine Jasudavicius less than two months ago. She replaces Joanne Wood on just over two weeks’ notice.

Why Bet on Priscilla Cachoeira?

Once clinging to UFC life after three straight losses, Priscila Cachoeira (12-4) now finds herself 4-1 in her last five. Her most recent bout was her most impressive yet, a 65-second knockout of Ariane Lipski. The victory marked her seventh via (technical) knockout.

Miranda Maverick vs. Priscilla Cachoeira Betting Analysis:

This is do-or-die for Maverick. Her loss to Maycee Barber was one of that year’s biggest robberies and there’s zero shame in losing to Erin Blanchfield, but she looked weirdly gunshy and ineffective against Jasudavicius even before the eye trauma.

If she can’t impress against Cachoeira — whose only answer to grapplers is either waiting for them to gas or trying to gouge their eyes out — she needs to reconsider her future in the sport.

We’ll be optimistic and say she has enough in the tank to win here. She’s a lot faster than Cachoeira, who’s both a lesser wrestler than Jasudavicius and a lesser physical threat.

So long as Maverick’s gas tank holds up, expect her to ground Cachoeira early and often while racking up ground and pound for a decisive win.