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UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on November 9, 2023 12:32 pm by Erwin Noguera

The UFC had to save this event in the Madison Square Garden, as the original main fight was a clash for the Heavyweight title between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, but things were scrapped when Jon Jones had to withdraw due to an injury that will have him on the sidelines for quite a bit.

It only took a brief moment for them to get a banger into the main event fight once again, as the clash for the vacant Light Heavyweight title is taking place now that Jiri Prochazka comes back to claim the belt he never lost, against the disciple of the man he took the belt from as the former Middleweight Champion Alex Pereira comes to fight for the title.

Aside from an exciting main event, we also have the co-main clash between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall, which showcases two exciting fighters looking to enter the title picture, as they will be going for the now vacant Heavyweight title.

With Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern also facing the main card, we have to point out that things are simply going to be exciting during the full event, which is packed with 5 main card fights and 8 prelims filled with talent from all over the glove.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info


Saturday, November 11th, at 10:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Jiří Procházka +100 / Alex Pereira -130 

Sergei Pavlovich -110 / Tom Aspinall -120 

Jéssica Andrade +165 / Mackenzie Dern -195 

Matt Frevola +190 / Benoit Saint-Denis -230 

Pat Sabatini -120 / Diego Lopes -110 

Steve Erceg -185 / Alessandro Costa +155 

Tabatha Ricci +140 / Lupita Godinez -170 

Mateusz Rębecki -700 / Roosevelt Roberts +440 

Nazim Sadykhov -140 / Viacheslav Borshchev +110 

Jared Gordon -180 / Mark Madsen +150 

Kyung Ho Kang +115 / John Castañeda -145 

Joshua Van -225 / Kevin Borjas +185 

Dennis Buzukja +210 / Jamall Emmers -260 

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 295: Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira

Why Bet on Jiří Procházka?

Jiri Prochazka won the light heavyweight title from Glover Teixeira in one of the best fights of 2022. In a true gutter war, both men took serious punishment, but ‘Denisa’ was eventually able to find a dominant position and choke out his more experienced foe.

Unfortunately, the Czech native then destroyed his shoulder, forcing him to vacate the crown. He hits like a truck, is a wildly creative striker, and has an underrated if chaotic, ground game.

Why Bet on Alex Pereira?

Pereira is unproven at light heavyweight, but he showed against Blachowicz that he isn’t going to be easy to muscle around. Already a huge 185lber, ‘Poatan’ doesn’t appear outsized as a light heavyweight. If anything, he could be stronger than before.

While his ground game is still a question mark, getting him down now looks harder than ever, and on the feet, his left hook is as deadly a weapon as any in the promotion.

Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira Final Betting Analysis:

Assuming Jiri Prochazka returns to old form, this fight will be purely chaotic for as long as it lasts. Prochazka’s unique striking and wild approach can lead to anything happening but if there is one guy he should not leave his hands down against, it’s Alex Pereira. Not only is Pereira perhaps the best striker and sniper the UFC has ever seen or even pound-for-pound the most powerful, but he could also be the most underrated leg kicker in MMA history. His leg kicks are never very powerful but extremely fast, precise, and almost always effective.

Prochazka has not faced a leg attacker like Pereira and his awkward movement could be thwarted by such a move. The latter nearly kicked Israel Adesanya’s leg off before losing in their rematch, and there is of course the elephant in the room of Prochazka’s shoulder injury. There are too many questions surrounding him and Pereira has shown time and again his ability to just do the most important thing: win.

UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Why Bet on Sergei Pavlovich?

Pavlovich is riding a wave of first-round finishes, with an incredible reach that has served him well in his recent bouts.

There are some question marks on Pavlovich. His lone defeat came back in 2018 when Alistair Overeem grounded and pounded him into defeat. Since then, he hasn’t gone to the ground, and because he’s finished all of his foes so quickly, we don’t know if he’s improved there.

Likewise, his cardio is also a big question mark, purely because he simply hasn’t left the first round.

Why Bet on Tom Aspinall?

Aspinall, known for his all-around talent, has sharp boxing and grappling, making a quick return after an injury with a win in July. 

The native of Manchester is a huge heavyweight, standing at 6’5” and weighing nearly 260 pounds. However, he moves like a much smaller man and arguably has a smoother boxing game than Pavlovich even if he lacks the ruthless power.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Final Betting Analysis:

Tom Aspinall is much more well-rounded, but Sergei Pavlovich’s show-stopping power and precision striking simply cannot be ignored. Pavlovich will likely be the more prepared fighter as the intended backup for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, and as fans saw in the main event of UFC 294, that can be a big factor. 

Aside from his knee injury, Aspinall has yet to face any trouble in the octagon but we’ve seen Pavlovich eat clean shots from Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes. Pavlovich gets it done this time but they will meet again.

UFC 295: Jéssica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern

Why Bet on Jéssica Andrade?

A few years ago, Andrade probably would’ve been favored to stop the takedown and batter Dern standing, but at this point, the veteran might be close to the end. She’s lost her last three, and two of those losses have come via submission.

Why Bet on Mackenzie Dern?

This one represents another chance for Dern to climb into genuine title contention, as she’s fallen short a couple of times before. 

Dern is probably the best grappler in this division, although her takedowns aren’t great.

Jéssica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern Final Betting Analysis:

Jessica Andrade will be making her fifth walk to the octagon at Madison Square Garden despite just being 1-3 so far in 2023. There are a lot of questions surrounding the handling of her career this year, but regardless, she will be once again taking on a tough opponent. 

Besides all the questions surrounding her, Dern looked like a completely different fighter against Angela Hill in May and if that same version of her shows up again, Andrade could be in a lot of trouble. The latter could land a big shot to change everything, but Dern has never been knocked out and that’s unlikely to change here.

UFC 295: Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Why Bet on Matt Frevola?

Frevola is on a three-fight win streak, but he has been an underdog in almost all of his UFC fights to date and will be one again against Saint-Denis despite being the ranked fighter.

Why Bet on Benoit Saint-Denis?

Saint-Denis is riding a four-in-a-row win streak. 

A large 155lber, when he gets his opponents down he seems capable of doing serious damage, and he impressively dealt with Thiago Moises last time out.

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Final Betting Analysis:

This fight will undoubtedly be all action as both men will push the pace, but Saint-Denis’ lack of striking defense so far is concerning. It’s one thing to walk through shots from Gabriel Miranda and Thiago Moises, but that’s a dangerous game to play with Frevola. 

Saint-Denis will be bigger than Frevola and should try to make this fight dirty, but Frevola has put on considerable size since his last fight and has not been significantly out-wrestled by any fighter other than Arman Tsarukyan. Frevola will set MSG on fire and get the pay-per-view card started with a bang.

UFC 295: Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes

Why Bet on Pat Sabatini?

Sabatini has far more experience in the octagon than his opponent, and that could sway things. He’s been around since 2021 and could’ve moved into a ranked spot had he not suffered an upset at the hands of Damon Jackson in 2022.

Why Bet on Diego Lopes?

Lopes, is 1-1 in the promotion, defeating Gavin Tucker but being outworked by Movsar Evloev in his debut. He didn’t do badly against Evloev, though, and had him in trouble on more than one occasion with his grappling.

Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes Final Betting Analysis:

Pat Sabatini is as solid of a fighter in the division, but you know what to expect from him by now. In the one fight he did not get to utilize his wrestling he got knocked out by Damon Jackson, so he will almost certainly attempt a takedown early. However, Lopes may just be the best grappler in the division on top of having a size advantage.

Lopes has not completed a takedown in the UFC yet but loves to wait for his opponent to shoot at him before aggressively attempting relentless submissions in return. If there’s one thing to criticize about Sabatini, it’s that he leaves himself open to be finished both on the feet and in grappling transitions.

UFC 295: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

Why Bet on Steve Erceg?

After thoroughly conquering Eternal MMA’s Flyweight division, Steve Erceg (10-1) stepped up on short notice to battle David Dvorak in his UFC debut. ‘Astro Boy’ powered through a tough start to steadily take over, claiming both Performance of the Night and his ninth consecutive victory.

Six of his seven professional finishes have come via submission.

Why Bet on Alessandro Costa?

Five months after winning a decision (but not a contract) on Contender Series, Alessandro Costa (13-3) answered the short notice call to battle Amir Albazi, an admirably bold move that nonetheless saw him flattened in the third. He bounced back six months later with a Performance of the Night beatdown of Jimmy Flick for his eighth win in nine fights.

He replaces Matt Schnell — whom Erceg replaced against Dvorak last June — on around two weeks’ notice.

Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Final Betting Analysis:

It is hard to gauge how good both of these fighters are, as both have very little high-level experience. Erceg did secure a big win over David Dvorak, but Costa may have been more impressive so far with a fairly competitive fight against Amir Albazi before demolishing Jimmy Flick. Erceg showed durability and sufficient striking in his lone UFC outing, but Costa has displayed a more well-rounded game. Assuming Costa does not get clipped early, look for him to wear on Erceg as the fight goes on.

UFC 295: Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez

Why Bet on Tabatha Ricci?

Stepping up in weight on short notice just six weeks after her previous bout, Tabatha Ricci (9-1) was summarily battered by Manon Fiorot in her Octagon debut. ‘Baby Shark’ has been quite a bit more successful since, racking up four wins and notably outclassing Gillian Robertson last time out.

Her four professional finishes include three by submission.

Why Bet on Lupita Godinez?

Consistent inconsistency left Lupita Godinez (11-3) 3-3 after six Octagon appearances, impressive wins over the likes of Loma Lookboonmee offset by upset defeats to Jessica Penne, Luana Carolina, and Angela Hill. She seems to have finally found her footing, winning three straight in five months.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez Final Betting Analysis:

Loopy Godinez looked like a future title challenger at Noche UFC and would take a big step towards that goal with a win at UFC 295. The problem is, Tabatha Ricci might be the worst fight for her out of everyone in the back end of the UFC strawweight rankings. Ricci is extremely fundamental, but more importantly, will match Godinez’s physicality. The latter may be able to get a takedown or two, but she won’t ragdoll the former the way she has done to opponents in the past.

UFC 295: Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Why Bet on Mateusz Rębecki?

Mateusz Rebecki was getting ready for a tough challenge, but after the opponent changed, the 18-1-0 fighter had everything on his side once he entered the cage.

It should be a great opportunity to showcase his skills as this clash will not be as crazy as it’d been otherwise.

Why Bet on Roosevelt Roberts?

The 29-year-old Roberts was released from the UFC in August of 2021 after he went winless in his last three fights in the promotion, including a submission loss to Jim Miller and a last-gasp KO spinning wheel-kick defeat against Ignacio Bahamondes.

That left Roberts with a 4-3 (+1nc) record during his three-year stint in the UFC, but he’s since gotten back to winning ways on the regional circuit, earning two wins in the Eagle FC and LXF promotions.

Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts Final Betting Analysis:

Passionate UFC fans will be happy to see the former TUF 31 contestant back in the octagon but the feel-good story will end once the door locks. Rebecki would be a very tough fight for Roberts under normal circumstances, and the Miami native is coming into this fight on extremely short notice. Rebecki’s initial matchup with Nurullo Aliev would have been a crazy slugfest, but this is a lot to ask of a guy on just four days’ notice with a 4-4 record in the promotion.

UFC 295: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Why Bet on Nazim Sadykhov?

Nazim Sadykhov is a perfect 2-0 in the UFC, and one has to like him in this spot against an opponent that has a clear weakness with his takedown defense.

The 29-year-old looks to add a win to his total of 9-1-0.

Why Bet on Viacheslav Borshchev?

Borshchev has a takedown perfect concerning his accuracy. Although he hasn’t shot for many takedowns in his two fights, it’s because he hasn’t needed to, but one could predict he will go back to his wrestling here.

Borschev is a pretty solid striker, as he’s the kickboxing teacher at Team Alpha Male. 

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Final Betting Analysis:

This fight should be Sadykhov’s to lose, but it will all depend on the Russian’s approach. If he keeps the fight standing, Borshchev — a former kickboxing world champion — is a live underdog. Sadykhov needs to pressure Borshchev and utilize his takedowns, and you can count on Ray Longo to drill that into his fighter’s head all week. Borshchev has shown poor takedown defense thus far and little ability to get up. The Brooklyn man gets the first finish of the night either by ground-and-pound or submission.

UFC 295: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen

Why Bet on Jared Gordon?

Jared Gordon (19-6) went from suffering three knockout losses in four fights to winning three straight, most notably a split decision over Joe Solecki. He now finds himself 1-2 (1 NC) in his last four thanks to a robbery loss to Paddy Pimblett and a clash of heads in his April 2023 bout with Bobby Green.

Why Bet on Mark Madsen?

Mark Madsen (12-1) battled his way to a perfect (4-0) UFC start highlighted by decisions over Clay Guida and Vinc Pichel. Then came Grant Dawson, who choked out the Danish veteran midway through the third round.

This marks the first bout for ‘The Olympian’ in almost exactly one year.

Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen Final Betting Analysis:

The plan for Gordon is simple: survive the first round, punish Madsen when his gas tank and legs start failing him, and don’t get surprised by an out-of-nowhere takedown in the third as Pichel did. The first two should be simple enough, as we saw when Gordon steadily bulldozed another strong grappler in Leonardo Santos, so the drama comes in whether Gordon can shut down a gassing Madsen’s takedowns and/or get off of his back.

Gordon got overwhelmed by the aforementioned Dawson, raising some questions as to whether he can handle a physically superior grappler, but Madsen’s poor gas tank is too big a weakness to overlook. In the end, attrition carries Gordon to victory in the last two rounds.

UFC 295: Kyung Ho Kang vs. John Castañeda

Why Bet on Kyung Ho Kang?

Despite long stretches of inactivity — including a three-year stint of mandatory military service and a 2.5-year layoff that made him miss all of 2020 — Kyung Ho Kang (19-9) sits at 8-3 (1 NC) in the Octagon. His current 5-1 run most recently saw him choke out Cristian Quiñonez in June 2023.

Why Bet on John Castañeda?

Three years after winning but failing to graduate from Contender Series, John Castaneda (20-6) fell short in his UFC debut against Nathaniel Wood. ‘Sexy Mexi’ is 3-1 since, picking up solid victories over Miles Johns and Muin Gafurov.

He’s knocked out and submitted seven foes apiece.

Kyung Ho Kang vs. John Castañeda Final Betting Analysis:

We may have to admit to some favoritism towards Kang ever since we first saw his beautiful grappling more than a decade ago, and also admit to underestimating Castaneda, who’s improved considerably since his 1-3 skid. Just keep that in mind as we explain how Kang will win.

Kang has a clear edge on the ground, sporting very good wrestling and excellent top control. Though Castaneda showed off strong takedown defense against Gafurov, Kim is a far more technical striker than ‘Tajik,’ which should go a long way toward opening up his wrestling. On top of that, he’s got noteworthy height and reach advantages, plus enough striking skills to beat a dangerous slugger in Danaa Batgerel. Kang will make it difficult for himself as always, but he’s skilled enough to edge out another narrow decision.

UFC 295: Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas

Why Bet on Joshua Van?

Joshua Van (8-1) capped off his two-year run in Fury FC by choking out Cleveland McLean to claim its Flyweight title. His efforts earned him a Contender Series berth that turned into a short-notice UFC debut against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, whom Van out-slugged in his first professional trip to the judges.

‘The Fearless’ sports five knockouts among his seven pro finishes.

Why Bet on Kevin Borjas?

The seventh bout under the Inka FC banner saw Kevin Borjas (9-1) stop Tiao Calixto for the Flyweight title. ‘El Gallo Negro’ was slated to face Van on Contender Series, but instead boxed up late replacement Victor Dias to claim a contract in his first decision victory as a professional.

Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas Final Betting Analysis:

We’ll be shocked if this doesn’t produce at least one ‘of the Night’ bonus. Not only are both mean fearsome, aggressive strikers, but they also have complementary strengths and weaknesses, with Van boasting superior versatility and technique while Borjas packs the heavier hands. All signs point them colliding in the center and trading heat until they’re pulled apart or someone goes to sleep.

We got Van by a much slimmer margin than the bookies do. Beyond having a stronger body of work and more weapons in his arsenal, he’s more composed than Borjas, which should carry him through the inevitable interchanges. Borjas has a real chance of sleeping him, especially if he catches Van leaning back with his signature straight right, but expect Van’s technical edge to carry the day in a fight to remember.

UFC 295: Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers

Why Bet on Dennis Buzukja?

Dennis Buzukja (11-3) bounced back from his unsuccessful Contender Series bid by winning seven straight, including a decision over Kaleio Romero on his return to the promotion. ‘The Great’ finally made his first UFC walk after stepping up at the eleventh hour to battle Sean Woodson, who out-classed Buzukja to claim a unanimous decision.

He’s knocked out four opponents and submitted one other.

Why Bet on Jamall Emmers?

After falling short against Thiago Moises in a bid for RFA gold, Jamall Emmers (19-7) put together an 8-1 run, beating Cory Sandhagen and Jay Cuccinello along the way while falling to Julian Erosa on the Contender Series. He now finds himself 2-3 in the Octagon thanks to controversial losses to Giga Chikadze and Jack Jenkins alongside a comeback submission defeat to Pat Sabatini.

Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers Final Betting Analysis:

You have to feel for Emmers. Every single member of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media had him winning the Jenkins fight and he had Sabatini dead to rights before inexplicably attacking a leg lock. That said, he should win this easily barring any further shenanigans.

Though Buzukja is as game as anyone in the sport, this seems like a double case of deja vu that’s very much not in his favor. We just saw Emmers seemingly outclass a very strong pocket boxer in Jenkins and Buzukja looks completely impotent against a mobile, long-range striker in Woodson. Emmers has the length and kickboxing to control the fight at a distance, plus the takedowns to recreate Woodson’s wrestling success. In short, ‘Pretty Boy’ alternates between playing matador and smothering Buzukja en route to a one-sided decision win.

Procházka vs. Pereira Betting Pick: Alex Pereira

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall Betting Pick: Sergei Pavlovich

Andrade vs. Dern Betting Pick: Mackenzie Dern

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Betting Pick: Matt Frevola

Sabatini vs. Lopes Betting Pick: Diego Lopes

Erceg vs. Costa Betting Pick: Alessandro Costa

Ricci vs. Godinez Betting Pick: Tabatha Ricci

Rębecki vs. Roberts Betting Pick: Mateusz Rebecki

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev Betting Pick: Nazim Sadykhov

Gordon vs. Madsen Betting Pick: Jared Gordon

Ho Kang vs. Castañeda Betting Pick: Kyung Ho Kang

Van vs. Borjas Betting Pick: Joshua Van

Buzukja vs. Emmers Betting Pick: Jamall Emmers

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