UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Fight Card Odds and Picks Gambyl Sports Betting Exchange

Last Updated on December 14, 2023 1:36 pm by Erwin Noguera

The T-Mobile Arena is getting ready to host the long-awaited card of the UFC 296, which places not one but two title matches as the Main and Co-Main events for the night.

The first of those will be the headliner fight, between the current champion Leon Edwards, and the multiple-time title challenger Colby Covington, facing for the Undisputed Welterweight Title.

On the Co-main event, we have an exciting fight between the recently crowned Flyweight Champion, Alexandre Pantoja, who will be facing Brandon Royval in another 5-round clash.

Besides exciting fights to finish our night, we also have a clash of talent when the undefeated Shavrat Rakhmonov faces Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in the Welterweight Division, and of course, we also have the clash between Tony Ferguson and Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett.

That is just on the main card, but our prelims include a Featherweight bout between Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell, along with a Female Bantamweight clash between Irene Aldana and Karol Rosa, along with other talented fighters to kick-start the event.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, December 16th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Leon Edwards 1.64 / Colby Covington 2.286

Alexandre Pantoja 1.49 / Brandon Royval 2.653

Shavkat Rakhmonov 1.145 / Stephen Thompson 5.66

Tony Ferguson 3.48 / Paddy Pimblett 1.32

Josh Emmett 2.725 / Bryce Mitchell 1.454

Irene Aldana 1.48 / Karol Rosa 2.626

Cody Garbrandt 1.454 / Brian Kelleher 2.685

Casey O’Neill 1.5 / Ariane Lipski 2.566

Alonzo Menifield 2.954 / Dustin Jacoby 1.4

Tagir Ulanbekov 1.54 / Cody Durden 2.45

Andre Fili 1.58 / Lucas Almeida 2.364

Shamil Gaziev 2.05 / Martin Buday 1.74

Randy Brown 1.41 / Muslim Salikhov 2.871

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

Why Bet on Leon Edwards?

Leon Edwards defends his title here after an impressive set of victories over Kamaru Usman, where he showed off his defensive grappling and clean technical striking.

Why Bet on Colby Covington?

Colby Covington is a cardio machine who attempts a lot of takedowns behind wild striking and has shown tremendous recoverability, although his inactivity is a concern.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Final Betting Analysis:

Covington certainly has a path to victory if he’s able to use his pressure, cardio, and chain wrestling to keep Edwards on the back foot and suffocate his offense. However, we’ve seen Edwards go up against someone with a similar style and more power in Kamaru Usman and come out on top.

While Edwards needed a Hail Mary head kick to starch Usman in their first title fight, he had an even more convincing victory in the rematch, beating Usman by unanimous decision in March.

While Covington’s relentless takedowns will likely take Edwards to the mat at some point, Edwards has shown get-up ability so he won’t be controlled for long.

On the feet, there is a wide gulf between these two with Edwards boasting a more diverse striking arsenal, crisper and more accurate kickboxing, and harder hits.

It also doesn’t help that Covington hasn’t fought in 21 months and doesn’t have a win on his resume against a current ranked fighter on the UFC roster. Expect Edwards to control range, counter Covington when he tries to close the gap and pick him apart with his superior striking.

UFC 296: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

Why Bet on Alexandre Pantoja?

The flyweight champion will make his first title defense on Saturday night in a rematch bout with title challenger Brandon Royal. It was a long ride for Pantoja, who joined the UC in 2016 via The Ultimate Fighter, navigating a crowded flyweight division and losing early on to Dustin Ortiz and Deiveson Figueiredo. Since a 2020 loss to Askar Askarov, who was at the time undefeated, Pantoja, won three straight fights (two inside the distance) before his first title shot vs. Brandon Moreno in July.

Why Bet on Brandon Royval?

A relative newcomer to the UFC, Royval came to the UFC in 2020, going 3-2 in his first five fights with the promotion. His last loss came against Pantoja, a 2021 second-round loss (rear-naked choke), that he quickly recovered from five months later in a split-decision win vs. Rogerio Bontorin. Picking up two wins, both first-round submissions in the time since, Royval got this title fight, at least in part, due to a rather shallow pool in the flyweight division.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval Final Betting Analysis:

Much like we saw in his trilogy fight with Moreno to earn the title, Pantoja is a problem in this division, especially against guys he’s already beaten. While Royval might get some points early, we see Pantoja’s grappling on a different level, and we think he’ll score the win.

He took the championship title in a war, and he will come in to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.

UFC 296: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

Why Bet on Shavkat Rakhmonov?

Rakhmonov is a monster. A massive Welterweight with incredible conditioning and durability, Rakhmonov is a gnarly kickboxer who breaks his opponents down with punishing bodywork and combinations. Oh, and he’s a top-notch wrestler with a bunch of finishes via submission too!

Why Bet on Stephen Thompson?

Thompson’s movement, kicking game, and counter-punching skills are still world-class. He’s a master striker, and he still carries plenty of pop in his shots. The problem is that as he’s aged, he has become easier to manhandle with takedowns.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson Final Betting Analysis:

“Wonderboy” will want Shavkat to stand with him badly, and we are sure that the Kazakh athlete will… for a time. It would just be silly for Rakhmonov to do anything but implement his immense grappling edge. He’s not a lay-and-pray fighter anyway, so a finish is still on the table even if he wrestles.

The strategy here couldn’t be any more obvious. Rakhmonov should be looking to herd Thompson near the fence with his bodywork and kicks. As soon as Thompson’s back hits the black line near the outskirts of the Octagon, it’s time to change levels and start to grind.

Thompson has never been easy to track down, however, and Rakhmonov isn’t usually the type to grind for shots anyway. Thompson has to commit hard to his movement and seek to frustrate Rakhmonov, a naturally aggressive fighter. If Thompson has to cut his volume and keep his feet moving to draw combinations from Rakhmonov, it’s worth a few boos from the crowd.

Being transparent: we are fully on board the Shavkat Rakhmonov hype train and expect it to push through this fight.

UFC 296: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett

Why Bet on Tony Ferguson?

“El Cucuy” was one of the best Lightweights alive, but he has recently looked as stiff as the battered steel poles he used to train his shins against. Unless David Goggins manages to reawaken the animal in Ferguson, there’s little hope for the former interim Lightweight kingpin.

Why Bet on Paddy Pimblett?

The wheels nearly came off Pimblett’s hype train last time out, as Jared Gordon largely up-boxed him before the judges awarded “The Baddy” the win anyway. That would have cost UFC one of its relatively few remaining stars, so it’s time to get Pimblett a “real” win.

Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett Final Betting Analysis:

At his peak, Ferguson was one of the most creatively violent finishers to ever step foot into the cage, and he seemed to be made of iron. He often broke top-notch fighters casually. Nowadays, he doesn’t look like he belongs in the cage at all. However, If he can build some confidence and let his offense fly, hope is alive.

Pimblett isn’t a bad fighter by any means. He’s tough, can hit hard, and is a genuinely gifted submission grappler. The problem is that his takedowns are thoroughly okay, and his striking defense is straight-up bad. Still, he wins far more often than not, and at 28 years of age, there’s always a chance he will figure out how to fix those flaws and become something special.

Pimblett has aggression and confidence in spades, and that may be all it takes to beat Ferguson at this stage of the game. Recently, opponents have not struggled at all to take down “El Cucuy,” and if Pimblett is on top, he’s surely winning the fight.

UFC 296: Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell

Why Bet on Josh Emmett?

A five-fight win streak earned Josh Emmett (18-4) a shot at interim gold against Yair Rodriguez, who handed Emmett his first-ever submission loss late in the second round. He returned four months later to battle Ilia Topuria in a UFC Jacksonville main event that saw Topuria brutalize Emmett for 25 minutes.

Why Bet on Bryce Mitchell?

“Thug Nasty” put his 1-1 The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27 run behind him to win his first six in the Octagon. Though he ran afoul of the aforementioned Topuria in Dec. 2022, he ground his way back into the win column nine months later by edging out Dan Ige.

He steps in for the injured Giga Chikadze on just 10 days’ notice.

Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell Final Betting Analysis:

Though the short notice will work in Emmett’s favor because of how cardio-intensive Mitchell’s style is, it is still not a good matchup for him at all. He doesn’t have the jab or footwork to keep Mitchell at a distance and lacks the wrestling to just big brother him the way Topuria did. Emmett needs to land that death punch of his to win, but between Mitchell’s toughness and the fact that Emmett hasn’t scored a knockout in 4.5 years, that doesn’t seem likely.

Emmett turns 39 in a few months and doesn’t have enough technical depth to his style to make up for his declining explosiveness. In the end, expect Mitchell to out-hustle him and grind his way to another ugly decision win.

UFC 296: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa

Why Bet on Irene Aldana?

A 4-1 run highlighted by three knockouts earned Irene Aldana (14-7) a crack at women’s G.O.A.T. Amanda Nunes in June 2023. The big lights proved too bright for Aldana, who landed a measly 41 strikes throughout a 25-minute mauling.

Eight of her 11 professional stoppages have come via knockout.

Why Bet on Karol Rosa?

Karol Rosa’s (17-5) undefeated UFC run came to an end at the hands of Sara McMann, who powered through a late comeback to beat Rosa by decision. She’s 2-1 since a decision defeat to Norma Dumont sandwiched between narrow wins over Lina Lansberg and Yana Santos.

Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa Final Betting Analysis:

We haven’t been impressed with either of these women lately. Aldana was on her way to defeat Macy Chiasson before scoring that miracle upkick and looked terrified to even consider engaging with Nunes, while Rosa barely let her hands go against Dumont and nearly lost a very winnable fight with Santos.

That said, Aldana’s red flags are more worrying. Chiasson racked up a ton of control time despite being a notoriously poor takedown artist, giving Rosa a clear path to victory. Aldana does have the edge on the feet thanks to her power, but Rosa is a dangerous boxer in her own right when switched on. So long as Rosa throws her usual amount of volume and doesn’t neglect the takedowns, she’ll edge Aldana out for a critical decision win.

UFC 296: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher

Why Bet on Cody Garbrandt?

The meteoric rise of Cody Garbrandt (13-5) gave way to an equally abrupt fall that saw him lose five of his next six bouts, four of them inside the distance. “No Love” righted the ship somewhat in March 2023, grappling his way past Trevin Jones for just his second win since 2016.

He’s ended 10 professional fights inside the distance, all by knockout.

Why Bet on Brian Kelleher?

Now 6.5 years removed from the massive upset of Iuri Alcantara that kicked off his UFC career, Brian Kelleher (24-14) sits at 8-7 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion. “Boom” enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of back-to-back submission losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista.

This marks his first fight in nearly 18 months.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher Final Betting Analysis:

On paper, Kelleher represents a reasonably safe step up from Jones. His takedown defense is far from impenetrable, as his recent struggles made very clear, so Garbrandt’s new wrestle-heavy approach should work a treat.

What Kelleher has that Jones doesn’t, however, is doggedness. Unless Garbrandt can hit his first career submission or stop Kelleher with strikes — a feat only John Lineker managed in Kelleher’s 42 professional fights — “Boom” will be in his face all night. And that’s not the best situation for someone whose confidence is compromised. In short, expect a repeat of Kelleher’s win over Hunter Azure as he survives a round or two on his back to hunt down a fading Garbrandt and hammer his way to a comeback win.

UFC 296: Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski

Why Bet on Casey O’Neill?

Casey O’Neill (9-1) began her UFC run with three consecutive stoppage wins, then out-dueled Roxanne Modafferi in the latter’s final bout. Then came Jennifer Maia, who out-struck “King” in March 2023 to claim an upset decision victory.

Why Bet on Ariane Lipski?

“Queen of Violence” struggled to find her footing in the Octagon, losing five of her first eight after a torrid run in KSW. Her 2023 campaign has proven more successful, claiming back-to-back upset victories over J.J. Aldrich and Melissa Gatto.

She’s scored six knockouts and three submissions as a professional.

Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Final Betting Analysis:

As well as she’s done of late, I’m not convinced that Lipski’s fixed what ails her, specifically her wrestling. Aldrich got in on her hips and locked her hands multiple times, and while Aldrich wasn’t a good enough takedown artist to take advantage, O’Neill most certainly is. O’Neill was weirdly reluctant to grapple Maia, but Maia’s ground game is good enough to be a deterrent and Lipski’s barely exists.

It’s not like O’Neill is out-gunned on the feet, either. Though Lipski hits harder, O’Neill is an absurdly prolific volume puncher. In other words, O’Neill hangs with Lipski on the feet just long enough to take it south, where she mauls her way to victory.

UFC 296: Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby

Why Bet on Alonzo Menifield?

A pair of brutal first-round knockouts started Alonzo Menifield’s (14-3-1) UFC run on the right foot, only for losses to Devin Clark and Ovince St. Preux to halt his momentum in its tracks. “Atomic” now finds himself 5-1-1 in the last three years, the lone loss a highly questionable one to William Knight.

Thirteen of his 14 wins have come inside the distance, nine of them by knockout.

Why Bet on Dustin Jacoby?

Dustin Jacoby’s (19-7-1) second UFC tenure began with a 6-0-1 run capped by a bonus-winning knockout of Da Un Jung. Though he dropped his next two to Khalil Rountree Jr. and Azamat Murzakanov, he returned to the win column and claimed another bonus by smashing Kennedy Nzechukwu in 82 seconds.

He is the taller man by three inches.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby Final Betting Analysis:

As laudable as Menifield’s technical development is, he’s still a few steps behind Jacoby on the feet. We’re not convinced “Atomic,” who’s still prone to sacrificing crispness for the sake of swinging and bangin’, has an answer for Jacoby’s crisp long-range offense. He’s the bigger puncher, sure, but even powerhouses like Rountree and Murzakanov couldn’t put Jacoby down for good.

Of the people Menifield has beaten in the Octagon, only Jimmy Crute is even in the same universe as Jacoby when it comes to striking, and even he’s very much at the edges. Jacoby’s way too sharp for Menfield on the feet, so expect him to take apart “Atomic” with straight punches and low kicks for either a late stoppage or shutout decision.

UFC 296: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden

Why Bet on Tagir Ulanbekov?

Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2) survived a compromised leg to out-grit Bruno Silva in his successful UFC debut. He’s fought just three times in the three years since, going 2-1 while withdrawing from five separate bouts.

Saturday’s fight ends a 13-month layoff.

Why Bet on Cody Durden?

Cody Durden (16-4-1) managed just one win in his first four UFC bouts, an ugly decision over Aoriqileng. He enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of four straight wins, three of them upsets.

He boasts six knockouts and five submissions as a professional.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden Final Betting Analysis:

We’ve been agonizing over this matchup for a lot longer than it probably merits. It’s 50/50 from where we are sitting: on one side, Durden hits harder and Ulanbekov has a mixed record against other strong grapplers in the Octagon. On the other, Ulanbekov has the better gas tank and can push an exhausting pace.

We have to go with Durden. Ulanbekov’s offensive wrestling was remarkably ineffective against Tim Elliott until the final round, and while Durden had his share of struggles against Jake Hadley, he still managed to gut out a strong third round. In short, Durden takes an early lead with heavy right hands and takedowns, then scrapes out at least one of the last two rounds to make it five straight.

UFC 296: Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida

Why Bet on Andre Fili?

After a long stretch of alternating wins and losses, Andre Fili (22-10) finally found his stride with a 4-1 run. He’s 2-4 (1 NC) in the seven bouts since, most recently losing a narrow decision to Nathaniel Wood in July 2023.

Why Bet on Lucas Almeida?

Almeida rebounded from his unsuccessful Contender Series appearance by choking out Italo Trindade under the Jungle Fight banner, then knocked out Michael Trizano in his “Fight of the Night”-winning UFC debut. A year-long layoff followed, after which Pat Sabatini put him away via a second-round arm triangle.

His 100 percent finishing record features nine knockouts.

Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida Final Betting Analysis:

Fili has everything he needs to win this fight, but he’ll need to stay sharp from bell to bell. While Almeida’s not difficult to hit or takedown, he’s got more than enough power to shut off Fili’s lights with one shot and isn’t shy about throwing heaters in volume.

Fili wins if he can keep his distance and utilize the wrestling that salvaged his fight with Algeo. It’s a tightrope he’s fallen off before, but Almeida’s flat-footed approach should give him enough openings to bail himself out of tight spots. In other words, potshots and top control carry him to victory.

UFC 296: Shamil Gaziev vs. Martin Buday

Why Bet on Shamil Gaziev?

Shamil Gaziev (11-0) — a training partner of top Flyweight prospect Muhammad Mokaev — punched his Contender Series ticket with three straight wins over some of Europe’s best Heavyweights. There, he fought through some early grappling trouble to choke out Greg Velasco and secure a UFC contract.

Eight of his 10 professional finishes have come in the first round.

Why Bet on Martin Buday?

Martin Buday (13-1) rattled off seven straight victories to earn a spot in the Contender Series, where he battered Lorenzo Hook en route to a contract-winning knockout. His UFC run began with controversial decisions over Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski, though his subsequent wins over Jake Collier and Josh Parisian proved more definitive.

Shamil Gaziev vs. Martin Buday Final Betting Analysis:

This goes one of two ways: either Gaziev knocks Buday’s block off inside of three minutes or Buday steadily demolishes him in the clinch. Both are very possible, but we are leaning towards the latter. Both men are easy to hit, Buday maybe more so, but Buday has the advantage of strong cardio and superior wrestling. If Buday can take Gaziev’s best shot and stay conscious, he wins.

We´ll be optimistic and say he can, especially since Gaziev is the only one of the two to have suffered a recent knockdown. When the dust settles, Buday weathers an early storm to grind Gaziev’s gas tank to dust and batter him into submission.

UFC 296: Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov

Why Bet on Randy Brown?

An inauspicious UFC start saw Randy Brown (17-5) — one of the first alumni of Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight — go 6-4 over four years. He now sits at 5-1 in his last six, the lone loss coming to a red-hot Jack Della Maddalena.

Why Bet on Muslim Salikhov?

“The King of Kung Fu” bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut with five straight wins, among them notable wins over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Francisco Trinaldo. He’s since lost two of three, including a unanimous decision to Nicolas Dalby his last time out.

His professional finishes are split 12:3 between knockouts and submissions.

Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov Final Betting Analysis:

Despite nearly eight years of seasoning in the Octagon, Brown still isn’t particularly good at utilizing his freakish dimensions. Not great news against a striker of Salikhov’s caliber, especially since we already saw “The King of Kung Fu” demolish another beanpole in Ricky Rainey.

There’s a big counterpoint, and that’s that Salikhov is pushing 40 and feeling it. Brown doesn’t push a particularly torrid pace, but chasing someone that rangy takes a lot of energy, especially when Brown can fall back on the clinch if needed. If Salikhov can’t get rid of him early, odds are Brown will mix long-range potshots and plenty of control against the fence to secure the decision.

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Fight Card Odds and Picks