UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on March 7, 2024 12:43 pm by Erwin Noguera

UFC 299, the latest numbered event, is making its way to us this Saturday, and we are taking a trip to the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida to watch a stacked card unfold.

This whole fight card is filled to the brim with tons of talent, and we are eager to see each of the duels in it unfold. With the event being headlined by a long-awaited rematch, fight fans everywhere are likely to tune in to see this go down.

For the main event, we finally get the rematch between the current champion, Sean O’Malley, and the only fighter who has managed to beat him, Marlon “Chito” Vera, who looks to repeat the dose and finally humble O’Malley in this clash.

The co-main event has the Former Lightweight Interim Champion Dustin Poirier, who will be facing Benoit Saint-Dennis in a clash that could either set him back as a contender or allow for the up-and-comer to leap closer to a title fight.

We can’t wait for this card to go down, as there are tons of exciting names from the prelims to the main card, starting with known ones like Joanne Wood, Ion Cutelaba, Michel Pereira, Rafael Dos Anjos, Curtis Blaydes, Petr Jan, Gilbert Burns, Jack Della Madalena, Kevin Holland, and Michael Venom Page.

This card is a love letter to seasoned fight fans, and it is also surprising, as one would think they’d leave such a stacked card for UFC 300, which only increases the hype towards that event.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, March 9th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds

Sean O’Malley 1.37 / Marlon Vera 3.145

Dustin Poirier 2.711 / Benoit Saint-Denis 1.542

Kevin Holland 1.7 / Michael Page 2.182

Gilbert Burns 2.266 / Jack Della Maddalena 1.65

Petr Yan 1.78 / Yadong Song 2.04

Curtis Blaydes 1.909 / Jailton Almeida 1.85

Katlyn Cerminara 2.746 / Maycee Barber 1.454

Mateusz Gamrot 1.186 / Rafael dos Anjos 4.64

Pedro Munhoz 2.786 / Kyler Phillips 1.44

Michel Pereira 1.69 / Michal Oleksiejczuk 2.138

Philipe Lins 2.02 / Ion Cutelaba 1.76

Robelis Despaigne 1.29 / Josh Parisian 3.55

CJ Vergara 5.11 / Asu Almabaev 1.163

Joanne Wood 2.766 / Marina Moroz 1.45

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 299: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Why Bet on Sean O’Malley?

O’Malley is currently the UFC’s “lightning in a bottle,” He has similar magnetism and drawing power to Conor McGregor and the Diaz brothers when those fighters were at their apex.

“Suga” is wildly popular with the under-35 demographic. His fighting style utilizes his height and reach advantages to the utmost degree. O’Malley compliments those physical traits with a fluidity of defensive movement, sharp snapping strikes, and elite footwork.

His show has evolved into a champion mixed martial artist who is tall, long, precise with his leveraged striking, and carries more power than most opponents believe. Further, O’Malley trains diligently on his craft and possesses far more advanced grappling and takedown defense than he has been able to display in past bouts.

Why Bet on Marlon Vera?

Marlon Vera is not flashy. He is gritty, grimy, and dawg-like in his approach to fighting. Vera’s not as gifted physically, nor is he as fluent an overall fighter as his opponent, but the weaponry he totes to the cage is mostly mental. Determination, focus, cardio, and the ability to wear opponents down physically/emotionally by applying unrelenting forward pressure are his assets.

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Final Betting Analysis:

This is a rematch of a 2020 bout that Vera won in the first round by incapacitating O’Malley’s beanpole legs with planned, bludgeoning leg kicks.

This time, Vera will attempt to apply pressure from the opening bell to try to back O’Malley up and force him to use energy in his defense. He will surely work to squelch O’Malley’s ability to move by attacking those legs to incapacitate the champion.

The O’Malley plan will be to slice and dice Vera into a bloody pulp by employing constant side-to-side movement, striking from angles, and employing precision counterstriking as Vera attempts to work his way to attack.

Vera is as determined as in their first bout or even more, but it is O’Malley whose game has evolved since these two first met.

As much as O’Malley has improved so far, I do not like his attitude a single bit, so, even though my betting prediction is for you guys to bet on O’Malley, personally, my money is on Vera to humble him (again) like he needs to be.

UFC 299: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Why Bet on Dustin Poirier?

The former interim champion at 155 pounds has fought the who’s-who of the division elite past and present and is most known for derailing Conor McGregor in back-to-back fights in 2021.

Returning from a head-kick knockout to Justin Gaethje last July has seen Poirier take the appropriate time off to recover. Still, at 35, with many wars on his resume, some wonder if the Louisiana representative will be able to hold his own versus the new blood of the weight class.

Why Bet on Benoit Saint-Denis?

Benoit Saint-Denis is no stranger to combat; the former soldier with the French military special forces ended his contract with the army in 2019, and his thirst for war continued in the octagon, where he’d soon adapt to life as a professional mixed martial artist.

In just five years, BSD has collected a 13-1-0 professional MMA record, stormed the UFC lightweight division behind a 5-1 record since 2022, and is now on the brink of becoming a title contender after winning five consecutive bouts via KO/TKO or submission.

Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Final Betting Analysis:

Poirier is a complete martial artist who has been successful in all facets of the game, but there’s no denying that an offensive boxing approach has brought him to the dance as one of the promotion’s most recognized lightweight competitors.

When looking for red flags in Poirier’s game, durability is a good place to start. In six of his seven UFC losses to date, “The Diamond” was submitted or knocked out. In contrast, he’s also a proven finisher with decades of experience. Of his 21 promotional wins to date, 67% of those bouts finished inside the distance.

BSD is a savage, plain and simple. Sure, holes in his game have previously been exposed, such as his willingness to overexert himself in certain positions and place himself in danger. However, much like his past career, this man wants war, and with the punching power and choking strength he’s displayed thus far, a fight he’s involved with is often expected to finish before the timers up.

BSD will find his way to finish Poirier and make his way up to the top of the division this Saturday.

UFC 299: Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page

Why Bet on Kevin Holland?

Holland is a fighter who can be dangerous in all areas, and he is quite a highly underrated grappler who is capable of catching any of his foes within a choke.

He is a fighter to be taken seriously at all times, but he should be prepared for most of what Page has to offer, at least after he clashes with Stephen Thompson, who we can compare to Page in some ways.

Why Bet on Michael Page?

Page is arriving at the UFC a little bit too late in his career to make the mark he could have before on the 170 pounds division, as the now 36-year-old athlete doesn’t have that unstoppable aura he once had.

Despite this, Venom is still a remarkable fighter, with a style reminiscent of the Legendary Anderson Silva.

Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page Final Betting Analysis:

Known for his unorthodox style and knockout power, Holland is favored to win this clash. Despite Page’s dynamic striking, his ability to adapt and capitalize on opportunities gives him the edge in what promises to be an exciting showdown.

He will be welcoming Michael Page to a whole new level, and even though we expect this to be an exciting match, we believe that Page will not be able to find his way through Holland before the “Trailblazer” finishes him out.

UFC 299: Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Why Bet on Gilbert Burns?

Gilbert Burns is a former title contender, who also is a top-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt. “Durinho” has powerful takedowns and if he can get his opponent to the mats, he can control and thrive.

He has struggled before with heavier hitters, but only when they have excellent takedown defense.

Why Bet on Jack Della Maddalena?

Australia’s Della Maddalena is still unbeaten in the octagon at 6-0, with his biggest win coming over Kevin Holland. Largely a boxer with quick hands and lots of power, his ground game would be the question, even though he submitted Randy Brown last year.

Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena Final Betting Analysis:

Maddalena’s recent performances have earned him significant support from fans and analysts alike. While Burns is a seasoned veteran, his determination and skill set could lead him to victory in this matchup.

This should be a big step up in competition, though, and it will be entertaining for everyone watching.

UFC 299: Petr Yan vs. Yadong Song

Why Bet on Petr Yan?

The former Champion Petr Yan hasn’t had a fight in almost a year now, and he has not had a victory since October 2022, but he is a truly special fighter with excellent combinations, brutal power, endless cardio, and underrated grappling when at his best.

Why Bet on Yadong Song?

Yadong is on the best run of his career, winning five of his last six bouts. He is a dangerous, concussive hitter, but he will need more than just that to get the win, as he may be less effective in multiple areas than his current opponent.

Petr Yan vs. Yadong Song Final Betting Analysis:

As a former champion with exceptional technical skills, Yan is expected to outclass Yadong in this bout. While Yadong is a formidable opponent, his rival experience and strategic approach give him the advantage in securing a win.

“No Mercy” will come from the lay-off with full batteries, and ready to make a statement to the division now that he is back.

UFC 299: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

Why Bet on Curtis Blaydes?

Curtis Blaydes was close to a title shot when he managed to get a 7-1 run, which was capped off by an injury stoppage against Tom Aspinall. All of this set him up against Sergei Pavlovich, who battered him en route to a first-round finish.

Why Bet on Curtis Jailton Almeida?

Thanks to a dominant Contender Series upset over Nasrudin Nasrudinov, Jailton Almeida earned his ninth consecutive victory and a UFC contract.

He recently dominated Derrick Lewis in his second consecutive main event, and now sits at a 6-0 in the Octagon.

Twelve of his 19 finishes have come via submission.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida Final Betting Analysis:

We find it hard to even see this going well for Almeida. “Malhadinho” hasn’t shown any meaningful striking skills or, more critically, any setups to his takedowns beyond an extremely predictable front kick.

Pure grappling ability has carried him past a “Who’s Who” of incompetent wrestlers, but it’s not going to cut it against someone with Blaydes’ pedigree.

Blaydes is levels above Almeida on the feet, will likely be close to 30 pounds bigger in the cage, and is too seasoned a wrestler to fall victim to Almeida’s usual approach. In short, he sprawls and brawls his way to a dominant decision.

UFC 299: Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

Why Bet on Katlyn Cerminara?

Katlyn Cerminara managed to fix her 1-2 skid behind her to win four straight, including a “Fight of the Night” split decision over Amanda Ribas. This set up a pivotal clash of contenders with Manon Fiorot, which saw Cerminara miss weight en route to a unanimous decision loss.

Why Bet on Maycee Barber?

Maycee Barber managed to smash her way to three knockouts in her first three UFC bouts, only to then lose two straight to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso. Undeterred, “The Future” will be entering the cage this Saturday on the heels of five straight wins, among them a bonus-winning beatdown of Amanda Ribas in June 2023.

She’s knocked out six pro foes and submitted two others.

Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber Final Betting Analysis:

Though Cerminara is unlikely to attack Barber’s awful takedown defense the way Andrea Lee and the aforementioned Ribas did, this seems like a much rougher matchup for her than the odds suggest.

As ferocious as “The Future” is on the inside, she hasn’t shown the cage craft needed to hunt down the taller, ranger Cerminara, who largely held her own against a stronger hitter than Barber in Fiorot.

Barber’s wrestling game is too weak for her grappling advantage to play a factor — and even though she’s by far the better finisher — she’ll have a heck of a time getting close enough to land telling blows. Raw aggression could still pay dividends for her, but odds are that Cerminara uses her length and sharp shoots her way to a decision.

UFC 299: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Why Bet on Mateusz Gamrot?

Mateusz Gamrot lost his undefeated record to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut, but he did manage to walk away with the Fight of the Night bonus as a consolation prize. “Gamer” has since won six of seven, notably upsetting Arman Tsarukyan and Rafael Fiziev along the way.

Why Bet on Rafael dos Anjos?

Dos Anjos returned to the Lightweight division after a 1-4 skid and quickly picked up where he left off, defeating Paul Felder and Renato Moicano in back-to-back five-rounders.

A knockout loss to Rafael Fiziev made him adjust and go back to 170 pounds, where he choked out Bryan Barberena before losing a competitive decision to Vicente Luque.

His professional finishes are split 11:5 between submissions and knockouts.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos Final Betting Analysis:

We will always respect dos Anjos’ willingness to face the most toxic stylistic matchups imaginable, but we just can’t see this going well for him. In addition to boasting the sort of takedown prowess that’s long given “RDA” problems, Gamrot is the rare Lightweight who can match (or exceed) dos Anjos’ motor.

Though dos Anjos does have the edge on the feet, Gamrot’s both competent enough to hold his own there and ludicrously tough enough to take dos Anjos’ best shot.

Gamrot is six years younger, infinitely less shopworn, and has a style against which dos Anjos consistently struggles. In the end, constant takedowns carry “Gamer” to his third straight victory.

UFC 299: Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips

Why Bet on Pedro Munhoz?

Pedro Munhoz was able to cap off his red-hot 7-1 run by knocking out Cody Garbrandt to claim his fourth UFC post-fight bonus. He has been at 2-5 since, most recently losing a contentious decision to Marlin Vera in Aug. 2023.

His 13 finishes include nine submissions, six of them guillotines.

Why Bet on Kyler Phillips?

Kyler Phillips fought his way to a 4-1 Octagon start, with his lone loss being a controversial decision against Raulian Paiva, before spending nearly 18 months on the sidelines.

He finally returned to action in Aug. 2023 with a unanimous decision over veteran Raoni Barcelos.

Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips Final Betting Analysis:

The key to beating Munhoz is an open secret. While he’s functionally indestructible — a ferocious low kicker and a venomous grappler to boot — poor footwork and cage cutting leave him unable to force the close-quarters slugfests in which he thrives. Phillips is quick, nimble, and, most importantly, patient enough to run circles around Munhoz all night and punish his iffy striking defense.

Munhoz only needs a few calf kicks to take away Phillips’ mobility advantage, of course, but Munhoz’s shortcomings mean Phillips will have to give him those opportunities. Considering how well Phillips minded his P’s and Q’s against the very savvy Barcelos, we don’t see that happening. On the contrary, Phillips hits and runs his way to a dominant decision.

UFC 299: Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Why Bet on Michel Pereira?

An ignominious 1-2 UFC start paved the way for five straight wins for Michel Pereira, among them a “Fight of the Night” decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.

After dealing with assorted issues and a flubbed weight cut that kept him out of action for the next 17 months, he made up for lost time by smashing Andre Petroski in 66 seconds

Why Bet on Michal Oleksiejczuk?

After amassing a 4-3 (1 NC) UFC record at Light Heavyweight, Michal Oleksiejczuk dropped to 185 pounds in 2022. The move was great, and it has paid dividends, producing three first-round knockouts in four bouts.

His recent finish of Chidi Njokuani marked his 14th professional knockout and 15th finish overall.

Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Final Betting Analysis:

Two types of opponents give Oleksiejczuk trouble: good movers who prevent him from planting his feet and takedown artists. Unfortunately for him, Pereira is both.

When he’s not flying through the air, Pereira is a very competent sharpshooter who’s tough to hunt down. And even though he’s not exactly a smothering grappler, he wrestles well enough to punch through Oleksiejczuk’s takedown defense.

Pereira’s gas tank should hold up well without that debilitating weight cut, giving him the means to run circles around Oleksiejczuk all night. Even if Oleksiejczuk does force his way inside, Pereira is extremely durable and has an easy out thanks to those takedowns. In short, Pereira out-classes Oleksiejczuk for his second UFC Middleweight win.

UFC 299: Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba

Why Bet on Philipe Lins?

Philipe Lins followed a 1-3 Bellator run with four consecutive finishes in the Professional Fighters League (PFL), the last one a tournament-clinching finish of UFC veteran, Josh Copeland. He’s competed just five times in the five years since and seen 11 separate fights fall through.

He boasts a one-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage.

Why Bet on Ion Cutelaba?

Once 11-1 in his professional career, Ion Cutelaba found himself on a tightrope, fighting for his UFC life amidst a 1-5-1 skid. He finally got back on track in April 2023, knocking out Tanner Boser to secure the fourth first-round finish of his Octagon career.

All but two of his professional wins have come inside the distance, including 13 knockouts.

Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba Final Betting Analysis:

For all his macho-man posturing, Cutelaba has what seems like a psychological compulsion to self-destruct, often by spamming takedowns regardless of whether he has an edge on the feet. Both Ryan Spann and Johnny Walker are notoriously chinny, yet Cutelaba insisted on dragging it to the mat in the sloppiest manner imaginable and got tapped for it.

That’s fine against incompetent grapplers like Boser, but while Lins may be among the sport’s premier pullout artists, he’s a very competent and well-rounded fighter when he makes it to the cage. His mobility should let him stay away from Cutelaba’s haymakers and provoke an unsafe, long-range shot from “The Hulk.” From there, it’s just a matter of time until Cutelaba leaves his neck out.

UFC 299: Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

Why Bet on Robelis Despaigne?

Robelis Despaigne represented his native Cuba in the 2012 Olympics, ultimately earning a Super Heavyweight bronze medal in taekwondo.

He transitioned to mixed martial arts (MMA) MMA in 2022 and has since racked up four first-round knockouts in a combined 5:13.

Why Bet on Josh Parisian?

Parisian made it 2-0 on Contender Series, pounding out Chad Johnson to secure his sixth consecutive knockout and a spot in the Octagon. He’s 2-4 in the 3.5 years since, including back-to-back losses to Jamal Pogues and Martin Buday in 2023.

Eight of his 13 finishes have come in the first round.

Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian Final Betting Analysis:

So, here’s the thing. Parisian is not a quality fighter by any stretch of the imagination. For example, his only two wins since Contender Series were a robbery decision over Roque Martinez and a comeback finish of the immensely flawed Alan Baudot, who very nearly finished Parisian before fumbling the bag. Despaigne, by contrast, is freakishly huge, boasts a top-notch striking pedigree, and has hammers in his hands.

All signs point to an instantaneous mauling.

The thing is that we just can’t shake the feeling that we’re in for a script-flipping. Despaigne’s four victims had a combined record of 1-0 and he’s been a professional for less than two years. Parisian may be near the bottom of the UFC barrel, but he’s still an order of magnitude better than anyone Despaigne has faced.

On top of that, Parisian is highly durable and willing to wrestle if needed — a rough combination for an MMA neophyte to deal with. While Despaigne could just smoke him with a wayward haymaker inside of 10 seconds, it seems likelier to me that Parisian finds the body lock, drags him to the mat, and pounds him out for a huge upset.

UFC 299: CJ Vergara vs. Asu Almabaev

Why Bet on CJ Vergara?

C.J. Vergara capped off his five-fight knockout streak by upsetting The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil veteran, Bruno Korea, on Contender Series.

He started his UFC run 1-2, missing weight in both defeats, but went on to defeat Daniel Lacerda and Vinicius Salvador in 2023.

Why Bet on Asu Almabaev?

Assu Almabayev rode a six-year, 13-fight win streak into his UFC debut, which pitted him against Contender Series graduate, Ode Osbourne. “Zulfikar” needed less than two rounds to defeat Osbourne via rear-naked choke and claim his first post-fight bonus in the process.

The win marked his ninth by submission and his dozenth inside the distance.

CJ Vergara vs. Asu Almabaev Final Betting Analysis:

This strikes me as a far more forgiving matchup for Almabayev than his debut. Osbourne — a much better wrestler than Vergara — had no answer for Almabayev’s grappling attack. There’s no reason to think that Vergara — who spent more than six minutes of their nine-minute fight underneath Tatsuro Taira — will fare any better.

Though Vergara does have the edge in power and Almabayev is far from a defensive wizard, Almabayev is unlikely to indulge him on the feet for any length of time before shooting.

In the end, Almabayev drags him to the mat in the opening minutes and chokes him out shortly thereafter.

UFC 299: Joanne Wood vs. Marina Moroz

Why Bet on Joanne Wood?

With a title shot virtually guaranteed, Joanne Wood chose to step in and battle Jennifer Maia in 2020, kicking off what ultimately became a 1-4 skid. With her back against the wall, she earned a much-needed win by edging out Luana Carolina at UFC 286.

She fights for the first time in nearly one year.

Why Bet on Marina Moroz?

Marina Moroz clawed her way out of a 2-3 slump with three straight wins, notably handing Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva their first professional defeats. Then came a decision loss to Maia, followed by a first-round submission defeat at the hands of Karine Silva.

Five of her six professional submissions have come by armbar.

Joanne Wood vs. Marina Moroz Final Betting Analysis:

It’s hard not to feel for Wood, whose career just never seemed to turn the corner. From having to juice herself down to 115 pounds before the Flyweight division came about to the losses that always seemed to happen at the worst time, things never quite worked out despite her considerable potential.

However, we think she has what it takes to avenge her first-ever loss. Though both women have been alarmingly hittable of late, Wood remains the sharper of the two at close range, where Moroz consistently finds herself despite her height and reach.

Moroz’s takedown defense also remains an issue, and while “The Iron Lady” did tap Wood off of her back last time, Wood’s improved grappling should be up to the task this time. When the dust settles, clutch takedowns admit a series of nip-and-tuck exchanges seal the deal for “Dr. Kneevil.”