UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Fight Card Odds and Picks Gambyl Sports Betting Exchange

Last Updated on November 16, 2023 12:44 pm by Erwin Noguera

The UFC Fight Night is making its way back to the Apex in Las Vegas, for an exciting clash between two finishers at the Middleweight Division.

This fight night has 14 clashes, and like usual fashion for a fight night, 6 of them are in the Main event with the other 8 in the Prelims. With a full card filled with talent, this will be an exciting event.

Besides an exciting main clash between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig, the main event also boasts a ton of talent with a bout between Jake Matthews and Michael Morales, and of course, an awesome beatdown between Jordan Leavitt and Chase Hopper.

The prelims are not falling behind, as we get a ton of exciting fighters making their way to the cage for us to enjoy.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, November 18th, at 2:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Brendan Allen -475 / Paul Craig +350

Jake Matthews +230 / Michael Morales -290

Jordan Leavitt +180 / Chase Hooper -220

Payton Talbott -800 / Nick Aguirre +525

Amanda Ribas -240 / Luana Pinheiro +190

Uros Medic / Myktybek Orolbai

Nikolas Motta -130 / Trey Ogden +110

Lucie Pudilová +165 / Ailin Perez -200

Mick Parkin -330 / Caio Machado +260

Jonathan Pearce -130 / Joanderson Brito +110

Chad Anheliger +160 / Jose Johnson -190

Charles Johnson +125 / Rafael Estevam -145

Lucas Alexander -500 / Jeka Saragih +375

Christian Leroy Duncan / Denis Tiuliulin

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

Why Bet on Brendan Allen?

Allen is coming off a string of absolutely brilliant wins against some of the toughest middleweights in the UFC, with notable wins over the likes of Muniz, Silva, and Malkoun.

He has certainly faced a plethora of different opponents who have mastered their style, and the way he handled them is brilliant, targeting their weakness, and sometimes even playing his opponents’ game and being better than them.

Why Bet on Paul Craig?

The biggest threat that Craig has on the ground is his triangles, especially from the bottom position, he is pretty good at shifting his legs up and getting the brawl in a favorable scenario. However, every fight starts on the feet, and Craig’s striking is a bit dangerous, he has a lot of power in his hands and kicks.

The former 205 still retains the strength from his previous weight class as he weights in the 185 division.

Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Final Betting Analysis:

Allen is just such a well-rounded fighter that whatever threat Craig has on the feet or the ground, the former is going to be aware of everything and shut it down, or turn it into his advantage.

If we are to talk about sheer power and strength, Craig has that in spades, he is a former 205er and still retains that strength and power, and Allen is going to have to be very, very careful in approaching someone like that in the cage, especially after winning against Muniz in such a fantastic fashion.

Allen is riding so much momentum coming into this fight, being such an impeccable fighter with a very well-rounded skillset, that we are placing our betting token on him.

UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales

Why Bet on Jake Matthews?

Matthews is coming off a strong submission win against Flowers, and it was a fairly back-and-forth bout for the most part until the submission sunk in.

Jake has always been a very well-rounded fighter, typically doing better on the ground than on the feet, and we believe that it’s the ground in which he would want this fight to take place because he is going to be dealing with a significant reach disadvantage against a very, very good boxer.

Why Bet on Michael Morales?

Morales has faced wrestlers before, he defeated Giles in the first round, smashed through Fugitt (who attempted 8 takedowns, only landing one), and fought the very well-rounded Griffin to a decision.

That’s already a beautiful resume to look at, and I just don’t see any stylistic differences in this bout. It’s just a wrestler/grappler fighting a longer boxer, and I believe that after 3 fights against wrestle-heavy opponents, that’s three camps preparing and upping the takedown defense and wrestling defense, it just seems like Morales is more than prepared to take on Matthews.

Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales Final Betting Analysis:

The reach of Morales is unique and I just don’t think it’s that easy to emulate that kind of reach at this weight class. The longest opponent that Matthews has faced is Semelsberger, and that was a 4-inch reach advantage, this is double that and against a very, very good boxer at that.

We got Morales winning this one, and whilst many hype trains have been derailed this year so far, we believe that Morales will stay on track and safely reach his next destination.

UFC Fight Night: Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper

Why Bet on Jordan Leavitt?

Leavitt is coming off a strong win against Victor Martinez, and it seems like the more we see Leavitt, the more comfortable he gets at striking. We say that because Leavitt was primarily a submission specialist when he started in the UFC, but has since diversified his skill set and overall looks like a fairly good competitor now.

Leavitt is a funky fighter, he’s fairly tricky to get a read on the feet, he moves around a lot, and throws a few unconventional attacks from awkward angles, all mostly to set up the takedowns.

Why Bet on Chase Hooper?

Hooper has been a fun little experiment for the UFC though, he came in at a young age, showed a few holes in his game, and developed his well-roundedness, and whilst he still does have some weaknesses on the feet, he is slowly becoming much more confident in throwing strikes. Undoubtedly, he’s getting better at it.

Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper Final Betting Analysis:

We believe it’s in those takedowns and wrestling exchanges from Leavitt that the fight gets a bit interesting because that falls into Hoopers’ world a little bit.

This is a tough fight though, but we think Leavitt gets the win here, he’s slightly more well-rounded, and whatever offense that Hooper throws on the ground will probably be negated by Leavitt on the feet, although is possible that Hooper could find a submission in this fight, so keep an eye out.

UFC Fight Night: Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre

Why Bet on Payton Talbott?

Talbott is coming off a very impressive win on DWCS, he looks confident when he fights, although he still looks ridiculously green, perhaps immature in his style, which is to be expected for a guy with 6 wins at the age of 25.

Why Bet on Nick Aguirre?

Aguirre is coming off a bit of a tough loss on his debut earlier this year, in which he lost against Argueta by way of decision.

It was a fairly one-sided fight because he spent most of it on the ground with Argueta controlling him. Aguirre is a bit of a submission specialist and did try to utilize submissions during that contest, although to little success.

Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre Final Betting Analysis:

Talbott is fairly diverse on the feet, although he does tend to chase his opponent down a lot with very little defense. He eats so many punches and strikes upon closing the distance that it makes us wonder how long it will take until his chin is truly tested.

Aguirre is a bit more of a grappler than a striker, but Talbott’s aggression and pace on the feet are going to make it difficult for him to settle in set his own pace, and initiate his plan.

We can just see Talbott wearing Aguirre down over three rounds, throwing long strikes, body kicks, and anything to just chip away his rival.

UFC Fight Night: Amanda Ribas vs. Luana Pinheiro

Why Bet on Amanda Ribas?

Ribas is coming off a tough TKO loss against Maycee Barber, in which she just got outwrestled and was the fairly smaller fighter.

The thing with Ribas is that she’s just a bit of a tricky fighter to predict, she is great at moving around, feinting, and showing off a whole lot of different looks whilst masking her attacks behind her movements. She is no doubt excellent at mixing in her takedowns through head throws or hip tosses, her judo is one of her strong suits when she fights and she uses it constantly in her bouts.

Why Bet on Luana Pinheiro?

Pinheiro is coming off a split decision win against Waterson-Gomez, and whilst it was a great back-and-forth fight, she was being outstruck by her rival. That, to me, was a bit of a surprise.

Now, Pinheiro honestly hasn’t shown us that many impressive things, she did take down Markos numerous times in the first round, but that was against Markos of all people, and it ended up being a DQ win for her which already made her start to the UFC a bit funky.

Amanda Ribas vs. Luana Pinheiro Final Betting Analysis:

Pinheiro is fairly inefficient on the feet, landing at a fairly low rate of 30-35%, and whilst we can argue that her wrestling and takedowns are her main weapon, we don’t think that’s going to work out well against someone who can utilize throws in the clinch like Ribas, and that will probably be the latter’s main way of transitioning the fight to the ground.

We expect Ribas to get the win here because we just don’t see what Pinheiro can offer something the former hasn’t already faced if that makes sense.

UFC Fight Night: Uros Medic vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Why Bet on Uros Medic?

Medic is coming off a fantastic fight against the incredibly dangerous Semelsberger, and whilst he did face adversity early on in the fight, he timed his strikes well, showed an incredibly snappy left hand, and one hell of a tough chin.

Uros is such a full-on fighter, he got rocked and dropped by Semelsberger many times in that first round and he just kept on fighting back. It was an incredible display of heart, but perhaps not the most efficient way to fight. His defenses were lacking a little bit, and if he hasn’t improved his head movement and ability to see punches coming, he is in for a rough night.

Why Bet on Myktybek Orolbai?

Orolbai is coming off a string of beautiful finishes on LFA, with his most recent one being against someone who looked like they just didn’t belong in the cage against someone like him. We know that sounds like we´re making him look like a great fighter, but we think his opponent was just terrible.

Orolbai is fairly good on the feet from what we could see, with very strong strikes, a great right hook, and a long left jab, but since he’s coming up against a southpaw, we’ve noticed that he does leave the right side of his body a bit open for kicks.

Uros Medic vs. Myktybek Orolbai Final Betting Analysis:

Orolbai is coming off a win just two weeks ago, which means near back-to-back weight cuts, it’s going to be interesting to see if he can make weight safely, as well as prepare with enough time to face someone like Medic.

Orolbai does have a slightly longer reach, so he could perhaps catch Medic at the end of his punches, but because we haven’t seen him fight against anyone who has a similar style, it’s hard for us to predict just how effective his strikes are going to be.

We are taking Medic as our pick for this clash.

UFC Fight Night: Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden

Why Bet on Nikolas Motta?

Nikolas Motta (13-5) followed his successful Cage Fury title bout with a one-sided decision over Joseph Lowry on Contender Series, only for three planned UFC debuts to fall apart. Upon his return to action, he likewise dropped two of his next three to Jim Miller and Manuel Torres.

Why Bet on Trey Ogden?

Trey Ogden (16-6) came up huge on Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight, choking out J.J. Okanovich to win Fury FC’s Lightweight title. He now sits at 1-2 in the Octagon, an upset of Daniel Zellhuber sandwiched between losses to Jordan Leavitt and Ignacio Bahamondes.

All 11 of his professional stoppages have come via submission.

Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden Final Betting Analysis:

It’s safe to say at this point that Motta does not have the durability or defensive skills to be a factor at 155 pounds. Getting smoked by Torres isn’t damning on its own, as that was as nasty an elbow as you’ll ever see, but it marked the fourth knockout loss of ‘Iron’s’ career.

Luckily for him, Ogden is not a threat on the feet. Bahamondes out-landed him 2:1 and Leavitt left him looking like he’d never even heard of a leg kick. Motta should have the takedown defense to keep it on the feet and have the boxing to dominate there. So long as he doesn’t somehow get chinned by a guy with no knockout wins, he should piece up Ogden for a decisive victory.

UFC Fight Night: Lucie Pudilová vs. Ailin Perez

Why Bet on Lucie Pudilová?

After washing out of UFC on the heels of a four-fight skid, Lucie Pudilova (14-8) put together a 5-1 run in her native Czech Republic to earn another shot. She pounded out Wu Yanan in her return, only to drop a bogus decision to Joselyne Edwards her next time out.

Why Bet on Ailin Perez?

Ailin Perez’s (8-2) UFC debut saw her out-grappled by judo ace Stephanie Egger, who handed “Fiona” the first non-disqualification loss of her professional career. After a February date with Hailey Cowan fell through, Perez returned to action in July 2023 with a dominant decision over Ashlee Evans-Smith.

She’s knocked out four professional foes and submitted one other.

Lucie Pudilová vs. Ailin Perez Final Betting Analysis:

Though Perez is quite one-dimensional, it’s the right dimension for this matchup. History suggests that she’ll have the wrestling advantage and Pudilova’s edge on the feet won’t matter much if she can’t keep it there.

The only way we can see Pudilova winning this is if she can drag Perez into a firefight and beat her down through attrition.

Considering Perez has the gas tank to shoot more than one dozen takedowns per fight and can ostensibly blunt any Pudilova momentum by dragging her to the mat, that doesn’t seem likely. In the end, non-stop wrestling and steady ground-and-pound should hand the former her second straight UFC victory.

UFC Fight Night: Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado

Why Bet on Mick Parkin?

After a chaotic 1:57, Mick Parkin (7-0) claimed victory and a UFC contract by choking out unbeaten Eduardo Neves on Contender Series. His Octagon debut pitted him against fellow Contender Series graduate, Jamal Pogues, who he thoroughly dominated to secure his first decision win.

Four of his six professional finishes have come in the first round.

Why Bet on Caio Machado?

Caio Machado (8-1-1) spent his entire pre-Contender Series career in Canada’s Battlefield Fight League, ultimately winning its Heavyweight title in 2021 before defending it three times. He entered the APEX as the underdog against Kevin Szaflarski but out-worked his foe to win a decision and contract.

Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado Final Betting Analysis:

Though we adamantly believe that his efforts on Contender Series didn’t merit a UFC contract, Machado is a perfectly functional Heavyweight. Unfortunately, Parkin looks to be better in just about every category — he’s the naturally larger man, a superior kickboxer, and ostensibly a superior wrestler as well.

Most importantly, Parkin boasts better cardio than Machado, who rarely leaves the first round and lost quite a bit of potency in the second half of the Szaflarski fight. Even if he can keep up early through sheer aggression, it’s only a matter of time before he slows down and his rival edge in technique turns the tide.

When the dust settles, Parkin out-classes Machado in a 15-minute striking match.

UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito

Why Bet on Jonathan Pearce?

Jonathan Pearce (14-4) capped off a five-fight winning streak by knocking out Jacob Rosales on Contender Series, only to suffer a shock stoppage loss to Joe Lauzon in his UFC debut. He’s since won five straight, including a decision over Darren Elkins last time out in Dec. 2022.

‘JSP’ stands four inches taller than Joanderson Brito (15-4-1), but gives up one inch of reach.

Why Bet on Joanderson Brito?

‘Tubarao’ — another Contender Series graduate — likewise stumbled out of the Octagon gate with a decision loss to Bill Algeo. Three straight wins followed, starting with a 41-second knockout of Andre Fili and continuing with a pair of submissions over Lucas Alexander and Westin Wilson.

His 13 professional finishes are split 7:6 between submissions and knockouts.

Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito Final Betting Analysis:

For the first time since that disastrous debut against Lauzon, Pearce is up against someone he can’t bully. Brito is a physical specimen with nasty power and a lethal top game; therefore, if anyone can keep ‘JSP’ on the back foot, it’s him.

Pearce’s best chance is to steadily wear out Brito until the Brazilian loses some octane, but there are two issues with that.

For one, Brito can push an absurd pace for an irrational amount of time. For two, Pearce has to survive long enough for the former’s gas tank to empty. Pearce’s chin is not hard to find, and if Elkins could find the mark with clean right hands, so can Brito. In the end, ‘Tubarao’ blitzes his foe for either a club-and-sub or straight-up mauling.

UFC Fight Night: Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson

Why Bet on Chad Anheliger?

Chad Anheliger (12-6) followed his Contender Series upset of Muin Gafurov with a UFC debut knockout of Jesse Strader. Then came Alatengheili, who out-struck and out-wrestled Anheliger to a decision win.

This marks his first appearance in 14 months.

Why Bet on Jose Johnson?

Jose Johnson’s (15-8) second Contender Series appearance saw him outlast undefeated Jack Cartwright to secure a UFC contract. He ultimately made his first Octagon walk one year later, succumbing to a Da’Mon Blackshear twister late in the first round.

Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson Final Betting Analysis:

As flawed as Johnson is, there just doesn’t seem to be a whole lot going Anheliger’s way in this matchup. The difference in proportions is downright unfair and Chad lacks the wrestling skills to exploit Jose’s biggest weakness.

Though Johnson isn’t always the best at keeping people at a distance, he’s durable enough to avoid getting clipped and has the cardio to keep pace with Anheliger for all three rounds, so the latter can’t rely on putting together a late rally.

It wouldn’t surprise us at all to see Johnson find a way to fumble this, but Anheliger lacks the aggression and technique to compensate for the difference in height and reach. In short, Jose Johnson sharp shoots his way to victory.

UFC Fight Night: Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam

Why Bet on Charles Johnson?

Charles Johnson (13-5) — the former Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) Flyweight champion — bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev by winning his next two fights. The run wasn’t to last, as “InnerG” then dropped back-to-back decisions to Ode Osbourne and Cody Durden in two months.

His nine professional finishes include five via knockout.

Why Bet on Rafael Estevam?

After a lengthy run under the Shooto Brasil banner, Rafael Estevam (11-0) pounded out undefeated Filipe Esteves in his LFA debut. This led to a Contender Series appearance 14 months later in which he survived early submission trouble to pummel Joao Elias and claim a UFC contract.

Saturday’s fight ends a 14-month layoff after a botched weight cut scuttled his planned May 2023 UFC debut.

Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam Final Betting Analysis:

Johnson cannot deal with chain wrestling. His sprawl is strong and his cardio is endless, but he can’t seem to break away once an opponent manages to latch on. Unfortunately for him, that’s exactly where Estevam excels. ‘Macapa’ is an extremely dogged takedown artist and ferocious ground-and-pounder who seemingly has the tools to recreate Mokaev’s and Durden’s successful efforts.

To Johnson’s credit, he’ll enjoy a significant advantage on the feet, where Estevam has little to offer besides body kicks. Not that it’ll do him much good if the latter never gives him the space to get any offense going. In the end, Estevam grapples his way to a suffocating decision win.

UFC Fight Night: Lucas Alexander vs. Jeka Saragih

Why Bet on Lucas Alexander?

Lucas Alexander’s (8-3) short-notice UFC debut saw him overpowered and submitted in little more than two minutes by Joanderson Brito. He was quite a bit more successful his next time out, out-classing Steven Peterson to win a unanimous decision and send ‘Ocho’ into retirement.

He steps in for Jesse Butler on around 2.5 weeks’ notice after a Nov. 4, 2023, bout with David Onama fell through.

Why Bet on Jeka Saragih?

Indonesia’s Jeka Saragih (13-3) smashed his way to the Road to UFC finals with brutal knockouts of Pawan Maan Singh and Won Bin Ki. There he faced Anshul Jubli, who exploited ‘Si Tendangan Maut’s’ wrestling issues to pound him out late in the second.

All but one of his wins have come inside the distance, eight of them via knockout.

Lucas Alexander vs. Jeka Saragih Final Betting Analysis:

Saragih was one of our favorites on Road to UFC. Even though we can’t imagine him ever polishing his takedown defense to the point where he becomes a contender, we´re glad to see him get another shot. He has a shot here by Alexander not being a grappler, but it is hard to see this one going well. Lucas just seems too mobile and composed on the feet for Jeka to hunt down, even with his explosiveness.

Saragih hits hard enough to turn the tide with one shot and Alexander did get blitzed by Brito, so it’s not a hopeless matchup. Lucas just has too much of a technical edge.

In short, Saragih’s inability to cut the cage allows Alexander to run circles around him for a clean win.

UFC Fight Night: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Why Bet on Christian Leroy Duncan?

CLD is coming off a fairly competitive bout against Petrosyan, and the main thing he did relatively well during that bout was the leg kicks. He seemingly throws them relentlessly, it’s his comfort strike so to speak, it’s the safest weapon and he utilizes it a lot.

Why Bet on Denis Tiuliulin?

Tiuliulin is coming in on very short notice which already puts him at a bit of a disadvantage, but he’s also coming up against a fairly tricky striker who is a bit faster and stronger than him, as well as perhaps more diverse.

Tiuliulin has decent fundamentals, he’s got fairly good striking, powerful in fact as he was able to stun the hell out of Pickett during their fight. Then again, Pickett was a bit washed.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Denis Tiuliulin Final Betting Analysis:

If CLD uses his leg kicks to strike during this bout against the fairly ill-prepared Tiuliulin, we can see him chipping away at his rival and eventually stopping him.

Tiuliulin will probably fight very well in the first round, he will most likely come out a bit aggressive to deal with the reach advantage of Duncan, but we still think the latter’s dynamic attacks and length will present a lot of problems in the long run.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Fight Card Odds and Picks