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UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis: Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on November 2, 2023 1:29 pm by Erwin Noguera

The UFC is making a trip to Brazil for this weekend, and we are getting an exciting heavyweight clash to headline the Fight Night; as the Black beast, Derrick Lewis goes back to the Octagon to meet with Jailton Almeida.

This fight night has 13 clashes, 6 of them in the Main event, and the other 7 in the Prelims, but we know that the crowd is going to be wild, as there is at least one local fighter in each of the clashes.

Besides the main event, we get an exciting co-main when Gabriel Bonfim meets Nicolas Dalby in the Welterweight Division, looking to make their way to the front of the line soon.

With multiple main event bangers and a bunch of interesting clashes coming up on the prelims, we can only wait patiently for Saturday night to come our way!

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info


Saturday, November 4th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Jailton Almeida -500 / Derrick Lewis +375

Gabriel Bonfim -600 / Nicolas Dalby +425

Rodrigo Nascimento -180 / Don’Tale Mayes +155

Caio Borralho -280 / Abus Magomedov +220

Rodolfo Vieira -105 / Armen Petrosyan -115

Ismael Bonfim -475 / Vinc Pichel +350

Elves Brener -160 / Kaynan Kruschewsky +130

Elizeu Zaleski +270 / Rinat Fakhretdinov -350

Daniel Marcos -240 / Victor Hugo +190

Vitor Petrino -230 / Modestas Bukauskas +185

Angela Hill +110 / Denise Gomes -130

Montserrat Conejo Ruiz +425 / Eduarda Moura -600

Kauê Fernandes +135 / Marc Diakiese -155

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

Why Bet on Jailton Almeida?

Almeida enters the main event undefeated in the UFC and on a 14-fight win streak that dates back to 2018. To take the feat a step further, all 14 of those wins have come by way of stoppage, with a near-even split between submissions and KO/TKO.

While this will be Almeida’s second scheduled five-round main event of 2023, he has never needed more than two rounds during his UFC tenure.

Why Bet on Derrick Lewis?

Lewis has been with the UFC since 2014 and has fought for the heavyweight title twice. He even has a unanimous decision victory over boxing’s new darling, Francis Ngannou. While he has only notched one win in his last four fights, he came into that win looking to be in the best physical shape of his career.

Combine his newfound health success with his one-hitter-quitter power that carries through every round and he will represent Almeida’s most dangerous opponent to date, at least in the power department.

Lewis does often struggle with his cardio in the later rounds, so it will be interesting to see how he looks at weigh-ins, especially on just about three weeks’ notice.

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Final Betting Analysis:

Jailton Almeida will test his cardio, and he’ll certainly test Lewis’s takedown defense and ground game as it’s been a big weakness for him. Almeida’s competition hasn’t been great to start his UFC career, but he’s taken care of business going 5-0 with all five finishes.

Lewis is going to have to land some heavy shots early to slow down Almeida, but we think the latter will avoid the heavy hits and wrap up the former. Once down, he’ll wear his opponent, and get him on the ground.

It’s just a terrible stylistic matchup for Lewis.

UFC Fight Night: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Why Bet on Gabriel Bonfim?

Bonfim looks like a serious Welterweight prospect. He’s finished each of his 15 wins, mostly via submission, and his pair of UFC bouts have seen him put hands on opponents quickly before wrapping up the neck. At just 26 years of age, Bonfim could be knocking on the door of a ranking.

Why Bet on Nicolas Dalby?

For Dalby, it’s astounding that he showed up better to his second UFC stint in his mid-30s. He’s genuinely improved everywhere compared to his first go three years prior!

He is a better-range striker, a more effective wrestler, and, overall, he’s able to push a more effective pace than the 2015 version of ‘Danish Dynamite.’

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby Final Betting Analysis:

Here’s a thing about Dalby: he knows how to play spoiler. The man is routinely underappreciated by oddsmakers — that happens to 38-year-old veterans — and yet he keeps winning. He’s hard-nosed enough to absorb an early barrage and come on strong, the exact type of fighter that can shock a young talent like Bonfim, accustomed to winning quickly.

That said, Bonfim feels like the real deal, and he’s fought into the third round enough times that we trust his gas tank not to completely implode. Resurgence or not, it’s going to be tough for Dalby to handle the superior wrestling and grappling of the Brazilian, and that kind of physical fight can be difficult for an older Welterweight.

UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes 2

Why Bet on Rodrigo Nascimento?

Nascimento is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 10-1 with 2 TKO/KO wins and 6 submissions. His only loss was a 45-second KO at the hands of Chris Daukaus in 2020.

Nascimento is a well-rounded enough talent without one overwhelming strong suit.

Why Bet on Don’Tale Mayes?

Mayes has a record of 10-5 with 6 TKO/KO wins and 1 submission under his belt at the age of 31. He is also a DWCS alum, winning twice on that show by TKO to earn his UFC contract.

Mayes is a quality athlete with power in his hands (but no idea how to consistently use it).

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes Final Betting Analysis:

Back in 2020, Nascimento choked out Mayes in the second. Since then, he’s 2-1 (1), while Mayes is 3-1 (1). Neither has given us much to suggest that anything has changed.

Credit to Mayes, he does seem to be landing his power shots more often. However, his wrestling is still not great, and he gags out when forced to work hard for any period. If Nascimento commits to the grind, he probably tap him yet again.

UFC Fight Night: Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov

Why Bet on Caio Borralho?

Borralho fights aren’t always a ton of fun, but the guy is pretty good. He’s got excellent chain wrestling, smothering top control, and the kickboxing know-how to set up his shots and push a brutal pace — most Middleweights hate brutal paces!

Why Bet on Abus Magomedov?

An explosive kicker with quality takedowns, Magomedov likes to burst out of the gate and kick his opponents to pieces. It tends to work beautifully or blow up in his face before long.

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov Final Betting Analysis:

We very much expect Magomedov to win the first round. Borralho has never been stopped, however, and he’s not helpless on his feet even if he prefers to grapple. As Borralho showed against Oleksiejczuk, he knows how to minimize damage absorbed and wrestle until his opponent starts to fall a step behind.

That sounds like the perfect strategy against Magomedov, who gassed about about the four-minute mark against Strickland. Oh yeah, Borralho is a training partner of Strickland too! That certainly can’t hurt his preparation, especially when it’s already a stylistic layup.

… provided ‘The Natural’ doesn’t shoot face-first into a knee, of course.

UFC Fight Night: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Why Bet on Rodolfo Vieira?

Vieira got stomped by Anthony Hernandez in the 2021 upset of the year, but he took the right lessons away. Since then, he’s shown improved stand-up and conditioning, though his ability to set up shots still leaves something to be desired. Fortunately, if he does get his man down, Vieira might be the best grappler on the roster.

Why Bet on Armen Petrosyan?

Petrosyan is very obviously a great kickboxer. He moves well, hits hard, and can strike from all distances. His takedown defense failed him badly against Caio Borralho in his sole UFC loss, however, and most other opponents who have tried to drag him down have succeeded.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan Final Betting Analysis:

This is always going to be one of those fights where the prediction is going to make you look like a genius or moron. If Vieira drags his foe to the floor, he pummels and shortly strangles him. If not, Petrosyan picks him apart and likely scores the knockout. It all hinges on the takedown!

We are placing our pick on Vieira to get it. His blast double is no joke, and his overall physicality seems like it’ll be a problem for Petrosyan. ‘Superman’ has historically done well to scramble to his feet, but that’s a tall task opposite ‘The Black Belt Hunter.’

UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel

Why Bet on Ismael Bonfim?

Bonfim shredded McKinney, instantly producing a good amount of hype for himself on the strength of his composed and powerful kickboxing. Unfortunately for ‘Marreta,’ Benoit Saint-Denis similarly ran through him, so it’s hard to say just how good the 27-year-old is two fights into his UFC career.

Why Bet on Vinc Pichel?

As for Pichel, The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran pops up every so often to put on gritty, tough fights. He’s a good wrestler with a solid chin and a deep gas tank, which does the trick more often than not. He’s been on the roster since 2012, fighting just 10 times in the span.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel Final Betting Analysis:

Pichel is capable of playing spoiler. He knows how to grind and make athletic opponents miserable. Unfortunately, it’s also really hard to pick a 40-year-old Lightweight coming off a significant layoff.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that ‘From Hell’ likely doesn’t have much to offer Bonfim on the feet. Saint-Denis was able to hammer him with liver kicks before getting his wrestling going, but it feels like Pichel is going to have to shoot from too far away to avoid getting cracked, which just isn’t a recipe for success.

More likely, Bonfim rebounds with some big combinations and capitalizes on Pichel’s inability to secure the early takedown.

UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky

Why Bet on Elves Brener?

Elves Brener (15-3) defied massive odds to beat Zubaira Tukhugov by a controversial split decision in his UFC debut. He was a similarly lopsided underdog against Guram Kutateladze his next time out, but survived serious early damage to stop Kutateladze and claim “Fight of the Night.”

Why Bet on Kaynan Kruschewsky?

Former Jungle Fight lightweight champion Kruschewsky (15-1, 1 no contest) steps in on four days’ notice to compete on a 165-pound catchweight after making short work of Dylan Mantello at Dana White’s Contender Series in September, choking him out in just under three minutes.

Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky Final Betting Analysis:

This fight is on as short notice as it could have been to be covered in this article, but here we are.

And even though Kruschewsky’s last performance was excellent, a really short notice clash where the weight is so high up means that he is simply going in because he wasn’t that off from the weight, and he is a local fighter; which doesn’t bring hopes up against a fully prepared Elves Brener.

Expect Brener to get the victory in this clash, there is not too much else to say in this case.

UFC Fight Night: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

Why Bet on Elizeu Zaleski?

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos’ (24-7) beatdown of Benoit Saint-Denis upped his record to 9-2 in his previous 11 fights, only for a United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) suspension to halt his momentum in its track. He returned to action in June 2023, when he edged out Abubakar Nurmagomedov in the fourth split decision of his UFC career.

Why Bet on Rinat Fakhretdinov?

Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-1) punched his UFC ticket with a one-punch knockout of Octagon veteran Eric Spicely, then kicked off his Octagon tenure with two straight decisions. His latest bout proved his most impressive yet, as he clubbed and subbed Kevin Lee in less than one minute.

His professional finishes are split 11:7 between knockouts and submissions.

Elizeu Zaleski vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov Final Betting Analysis:

We were doubters ahead of Fakhretdinov’s UFC debut and remained one after he ground out the very, very limited Andreas Michailidis. Now, though, we’re starting to believe. His mix of cardio, overpowering wrestling, and increasingly potent punching looks like a real problem for the division.

At the very least, it’s enough to carry him past “Capoeira.” Fearsome as Zaleski dos Santos can be, his only dominant performance in 4.5 years came against a Lightweight in Saint-Denis. We don’t trust him to beat a bigger, stronger, more focused grappler in Fakhretdinov; however, Zaleski dos Santos did sprawl and brawl effectively against Nurmagomedov, Fakhretdinov is both a better athlete than Nurmagomedov and far more dangerous on the feet, which will go a long way towards opening up his wrestling. In short, Fakhretdinov’s aggression muzzles Zaleski dos Santos’ offense as he racks up constant takedowns to sweep the scorecards.

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Marcos vs. Victor Hugo

Why Bet on Daniel Marcos?

Daniel Marcos (15-0) followed his impressive Contender Series victory over Brandon Lewis by stopping Saimon Oliveira in his UFC debut. “Soncora” entered his sophomore bout with Davey Grant as a slight favorite, but wound up needing a highly controversial split decision to keep his undefeated record intact.

All eight of his professional finishes have come via (technical) knockout.

Why Bet on Victor Hugo?

After spending two years on the sidelines, Victor Hugo (24-4) returned to action with three straight finishes. His efforts brought him to the Contender Series, where a slick kneebar finish of Eduardo Torres Caut earned him a contract.

‘Striker’ steps in for Daniel Santos on around four weeks’ notice.

Daniel Marcos vs. Victor Hugo Final Betting Analysis:

If Marcos keeps his foot on the gas, this is his fight to lose. Indeed, 28 professional fights have failed to sharpen Hugo’s striking beyond looping punches and poorly timed spinning attacks. Marcos will have a massive edge on the feet and, if his defensive wrestling showcase against Lewis was any indication, the means to keep it there.

Again, that’s assuming Marcos doesn’t sleepwalk through the fight like he did against Grant. Hugo is more than aggressive enough to out-work him if given the chance. We’ll be optimistic and say Marcos gets his act together, shutting down Hugo’s wrestling and landing the heavier blows to secure a wide decision.

UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Why Bet on Vitor Petrino?

Vitor Petrino (9-0) followed his beatdown of Gadzhimurad Antigulov with a contract-winning knockout of Rodolfo Bellato on Contender Series. Two Octagon appearances have seen ‘Icao’ win a Fight of the Night decision over fellow Contender Series alum, Anton Turkalj, and subsequently choke out Marcin Prachnio at UFC 290.

That win marked his seventh professional finish and first via submission.

Why Bet on Modestas Bukauskas?

After washing out of UFC at 1-3, Modestas Bukauskas (15-5) returned to Cage Warriors and once again claimed its Light Heavyweight title. This success soon prompted a second chance in the Octagon, which he’s made the most of with back-to-back wins over Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga.

Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas Final Betting Analysis:

Bukauskas is an easy man to underestimate. Skilled and credentialed as he is, it’s hard to forget the sight of Jimmy Crute carpet-bombing him or Khalil Rountree Jr. folding his leg in half. It doesn’t help that Petrino is a physical specimen with gnarly power and a stout wrestling game; even if he did look shaky at times against two of the division’s weaker members, there’s a sense that he can just blast Bukauskas out or ragdoll him as needed. You have to avoid relying on outdated views of Bukauskas’ skills and not get so blinded by Petrino’s potential that you forget where he’s actually at in his career.

All that said, we do still favor Petrino, largely because of his cardio. Bukauskas often makes up for a lack of one-shot power or elite athleticism by out-hustling his opponents, something we’re not convinced he can do here. Even if he’s elusive enough to avoid Petrino’s bigger shots, there’s not a ton stopping Petrino from just taking him down whenever things get hairy on the feet. In the end, heavier blows and strong top control seal the deal for ‘Icao.’

UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes

Why Bet on Angela Hill?

Angela Hill (15-13) — reeling from a 1-5 skid that featured multiple controversial decisions — clawed her way back to prominence by beating Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote. Her success earned her another main event against Mackenzie Dern, who battered ‘Overkill’ throughout five rounds.

Why Bet on Denise Gomes?

Despite dominating Rayanna dos Santos in the Contender Series, Gomes fell short in her UFC debut opposite Loma Lookboonmee. That defeat appears to have sparked a fire in her, as she went on to violently stop Bruna Brasil and Yazmin Jauregui in back-to-back fights.

All six of her professional finishes have come by knockout.

Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes Final Betting Analysis:

For our money, this comes down to whether Hill can withstand Gomes’ power. Godinez and Ducote are both very capable boxers, but neither could keep up with Hill once she found her groove. What worries us is the damage Hill took in the first round against both Godinez and Dern; considering the sort of explosive starts we’ve seen from Gomes, there’s every chance Gomes floors Hill before ‘Overkill’ can get out of first gear.

Before the Dern fight, we’d have tabbed Hill to out-class Gomes’ with long-range offense. Now, we don’t trust her to stand up to this sort of punishment. She’s probably still tough enough to last the distance, but expect Gomes to find a lot of early success through sheer aggression and subsequently out-work a compromised Hill.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Conejo Ruiz vs. Eduarda Moura

Why Bet on Montserrat Conejo Ruiz?

Montserrat Ruiz (10-3) wrestled her way to an upset decision over Cheyanne Vlismas in her UFC debut, only to get violently stopped by Amanda Lemos four months later. Then came a two-year layoff, followed by a technical knockout loss to grappling ace Jaqueline Amorim.

“Conejo” replaces So Yul Kim on less than two months’ notice.

Why Bet on Eduarda Moura?

Eduarda Moura (9-0) capped off her run on the Brazilian circuit by knocking out Claudia Alves for the Demo Fight Strawweight title. She entered the Contender Series five months later, choking out Janaina Silva in the first round to win a UFC contract.

She’s submitted five professional opponents and knocked out three others.

Montserrat Conejo Ruiz vs. Eduarda Moura Final Betting Analysis:

We just watched ‘Conejo’ get tossed around by an up-and-coming Brazilian grappler three months ago. That’s a reductive way of looking at things, sure, but there’s no reason to expect her to fare any better this time around. Though Moura lacks Amorim’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree, she’s a strong wrestler with a quality top game, an archetype Ruiz seemingly doesn’t have an answer to.

As far as we can tell, Ruiz’s fights still boil down to whether her opponent is limited enough to fall for the one throw Ruiz knows. Moura is way too sharp for that, so expect her to rack up takedowns and cruise to victory from the top.

UFC Fight Night: Kauê Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese

Why Bet on Kauê Fernandes?

Nova Uniao’s Kaue Fernandes (8-1) started his career perfect (6-0) before running afoul of Luann Sardinha in his Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) debut. He spent the next year on the sidelines, then came roaring back with two knockouts in a combined 2:13.

His professional finishes are split 4:2 between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Marc Diakiese?

The perfect (3-0) UFC start for Marc Diakiese (16-7) gave way to three consecutive losses, capped off by a decision defeat to Nasrat Haqparast. Though he got back on track with a pair of wins, he now finds himself in a 2-4 hole, most recently suffering a submission loss to Joel Alvarez thanks, in no small part, to a clash of heads beforehand.

Kauê Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese Final Betting Analysis:

The big question here is Fernandes’ gas tank. He’s a dangerous kicker and strong grappler when he’s fresh, but he fell apart after five minutes in that 2021 loss to Sardinha. His two fights since have been too short to determine whether he’s fixed that issue, and if he hasn’t, Diakiese will rule the day with his smothering wrestling

Honestly, Diakiese might do so anyway. Fernandes’ boxing is weak outside of his jab, so he doesn’t have a great way to keep Diakiese honest if ‘Bonecrusher’ can get past his kicks. Plus, while Fernandes’ top game is excellent, we wouldn’t call his bottom game dangerous enough to be a deterrent. If Diakiese can keep his head on straight and not get cowed like he did against Michael Johnson, he’ll grind his way to an ugly win.

Almeida vs. Lewis Betting Pick: Jailton Almeida

Bonfim vs. Dalby Betting Pick: Gabriel Bonfim

Nascimento vs. Mayes Betting Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento

Borralho vs. Magomedov Betting Pick: Caio Borralho

Vieira vs. Petrosyan Betting Pick: Rodolfo Vieira

Bonfim vs. Pichel Betting Pick: Ismael Bonfim

Brener vs. Kruschewsky Betting Pick: Elves Brener

Zaleski vs. Fakhretdinov Betting Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov

Marcos vs. Hugo Betting Pick: Daniel Marcos

Petrino vs. Bukauskas Betting Pick: Vitor Petrino

Hill vs. Gomes Betting Pick: Denise Gomes

Conejo vs. Moura Betting Pick: Eduarda Moura

Fernandes vs. Diakiese Betting Pick: Mark Diekese

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