UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on July 20, 2023 1:16 am by Erwin Noguera

The UFC is taking a little break from the Vegas events and is now going to take a trip to London, England, where a massive local star will be battling at the main event of the fight night.

This event will be also a stacked card with one of the highest numbers of bouts in recent events, as we will get to witness 15 fights in one night if everything goes as planned. The amount of star power in this card is astonishing, as there are a lot of known names from start to finish.

With so many fights comes a little bonus gift from the matchmakers… Except for the Light heavyweight division, we have at least one fight in each of the other weight divisions, so all fight fans can see what should be expected in every single weight class.

One way or the other, things are going to get fun, and there will be a little bit of each kind of possible match-up and action for every fan out there.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, July 22th, at 12:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Tom Aspinall -476 / Marcin Tybura +331

Molly McCann -222 / Julija Stoliarenko +171

Nathaniel Wood -212 / Andre Fili +163

André Muniz -238 / Paul Craig +179

Jai Herbert +126 / Fares Ziam -161

Lerone Murphy -149 / Josh Culibao +117

Davey Grant +113 / Daniel Marcos -142

Danny Roberts -116 / Jonny Parsons -109

Marc Diakiese +155 / Joel Alvarez -200

Mick Parkin +129 / Jamal Pogues -163

Bryan Barberena +237 / Makhmud Muradov -322

Ketlen Vieira -161 / Pannie Kianzad +126

Chris Duncan -151 / Yanal Ashmouz +119

Bruna Brasil -153 / Shauna Bannon +120

Jafel Filho -128 / Daniel Barez +101

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura

Why Bet on Tom Aspinall?

Tom Aspinall (12-3, 9 KO) had eight wins in a row before his unfortunate defeat against Curtis Blaydes. The English fella was ruthless in all of his victories, with the majority ending already in the first round.

Aspinall defeated guys like Alan Baudot, the former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski, Sergey Spivak, and Alexander Volkov. Against Blaydes, we saw him injuring his knee in only 15 seconds of the bout, which was a huge blow for the entire O2 Arena in London, but primarily for Aspinall himself.

Why Bet on Marcin Tybura?

Marcin Tybura (24-7) is 7-1 in the past eight battles, making a strong case for himself after years of being mediocre. He is one of those fighters who have been around for a long time and have fantastic experience.

Some would say that he presents the borderline between those who can do big things in the UFC and those who are average. His only defeat in recent times was against Alexander Volkov, while on the other side, the Pole defeated Ben Rothwell, Greg Hardy, Walt Harris, and most recently, Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov.

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Analysis:

Aspinall’s explosiveness and movement are two reasons we gave him the advantage over Tybura. The Englishman is more flexible and fluid than his rival, who, even though he has more extensive experience and may be stronger than his rival, can’t respond well to all the attacks from the other side.

We also have one more factor on Aspinall’s side: the crowd at the O2 Arena. That’s going to be a great boost for the host, who should finish the bout before the decisions.

To summarize here, our choice is Aspinall via decision.

UFC Fight Night: Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Why Bet on Molly McCann?

The 33-year-old McCann, from England, is unranked at 13-5 in a pro career dating to 2015. She is a former Cage Warriors flyweight champion, was born in Liverpool, and even played soccer for that franchise before an injury ended her football career. She’s an Everton fan.

“Meatball” had a three-fight winning streak snapped last time in the Octagon in November in New York City, falling to title contender Erin Blanchfield by first-round submission (Kimura).

Why Bet on Julija Stoliarenko?

The 30-year-old Stoliarenko, from Lithuania, is also unranked in the women’s flyweight division with a mediocre record of 10-7 overall with two draws and a 1-4 mark in the UFC. A cast member on Season 28 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” she comes off an October first-round TKO loss (punches) to Chelsea Chandler.

Stoliarenko’s lone UFC triumph was an armbar submission of Jessica-Rose Clark at UFC 276. She has nine wins by submission overall and one by decision with three losses by decision, three by KO/TKO, and one by submission.

Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko Betting Analysis:

McCann sure has the power, as well as the striking skills to take a win. Molly is one of the biggest brawlers in the women’s flyweight division who hits hard and who hits often. This explains why both of her last two wins happened by TKO.

Julija Stoliarenko is an expert in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who’s got a BJJ black belt and plenty of experience with submission grappling. Further, the Lithuanian fighter who’s 10-7-2 in her professional MMA career, has 9 wins by submission in her portfolio.

In simple terms, this means that if the McCann vs. Stoliarenko fight goes to the floor, it’s the underdog fighter who’ll have the advantage. However, with the help of her crowd at The O2 Arena, we think McCann is going to pull off the victory via finish.

UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili

Why Bet on Nathaniel Wood?

Wood is a slick customer as well. Despite facing a height and reach disadvantage against most Featherweights, his crafty calf kicking and clinch work has allowed him to succeed thus far — and with style points!

Why Bet on Andre Fili?

Fili has shared the cage with many of the best Featherweights of the last ten years, and his game has consistently improved as a result.

At his best, Fili is using tricky combinations from both stances to set up his powerful kicks, and he’s also quite good at timing takedowns on advancing opponents after pulling them into a striking match.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili Betting Analysis:

Wood’s previous two fights at Featherweight were impressive, but there are some caveats. Namely, in Rosa, he faced a man he outclassed on the feet, and in Jourdain, he was the far superior wrestler. Neither man could fully compete with him in those areas, and thus he was able to take over. Credit to him, that’s what a good fighter is supposed to do! Still, Fili feels like a more rounded threat than either man.

He’s not going to let himself get easily out-kicked at a distance by a far shorter man, nor is he likely to get tossed in the clinch and controlled repeatedly. This feels like a fight where size will be important. Both men are crafty and well-rounded, but Fili’s size and power should shift the odds firmly in his favor.

UFC Fight Night: André Muniz vs. Paul Craig

Why Bet on André Muniz?

It’s tough to get a full read on Muniz. How does a man submit “Jacare” but then get overwhelmed on the canvas by Brendan Allen? He just didn’t look very sharp in his last appearance, and it remains to be seen if that was a one-off or not.

Why Bet on Paul Craig?

Craig has one of the weirdest fight styles in the modern UFC, a mix of awkward range kicks, bad double legs, and guard pulls. Fortunately, he’s damn good at pulling off submissions, and his increased confidence over the years did pay off in a very nice win streak.

André Muniz vs. Paul Craig Betting Analysis:

This Middleweight move from Craig it’s a hard read. Size and strength have never appeared to be his problem. Rather than diet and lose muscle, learning how to properly shoot a double leg without falling over would’ve been a far better solution to his recent struggles.

Maybe Craig overpowers Muniz to the floor and then shows off his grappling skill. More likely, he’s surprised by his opponent’s speed on the feet, and his gas tank is shaken by the weight cut. In that case, the odds seem strong that Muniz sprawls and brawls his way to a clear-cut decision win.

UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam

Why Bet on Jai Herbert?

Herbert doesn’t have the prettiest UFC record, but the “Black Country Banger” has shown some great skills. He’s only lost to talented names — Francisco Trinaldo, Renato Moicano, and Ilia Topuria — and he had some strong moments in all those losses, usually on the strength of his powerful range striking.

Why Bet on Fares Ziam?

Ziam has failed to make much of a splash in his five UFC fights so far. He’s a pretty technical striker, but he hasn’t yet shown the level of activity or power necessary to break through the lower end of the Lightweight division.

Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam Betting Analysis:

Herbert looks like the better fighter. His striking is more fluid and powerful, and the wrestling seems likely to cancel out. The concerning bit, however, is that he is nearly a decade older than his opponent, and he’s been proven a bit chinny in his previous UFC fights.

Both Trinaldo and Topuria can hit dang hard, of course, but it’s a worrying trend that Herbert does well until he’s suddenly rocked or unconscious. Against a young striker, that’s a problem. However, Ziam hasn’t shown the power or killer instinct necessary, and to be honest, we don’t believe it’ll happen in this fight.

UFC Fight Night: Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao

Why Bet on Lerone Murphy?

It hasn’t been easy, but Murphy has maintained his perfect record. He’s a mean kickboxer who can do a ton of damage when able to take the top position. His strength and power are notable, but he has had some close calls with getting held down by previous opponents.

Why Bet on Josh Culibao?

Culibao is a crafty kickboxer himself, a rangy fighter who varies his timing to sneak in good shots. In his last bout, his back was against the wall opposite the power kicks of Melsik Baghdasaryan, but he showed off his opportunistic grappling for the first time in jumping the back and scoring a finish.

Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao Betting Analysis:

Culibao will need to pull a similar rabbit out of his hat here. Murphy is tough to deal with on the feet, which is why so many of his opponents spend their time diving for his legs. That’s not typically Culibao’s game, so odds are, this one remains a kickboxing battle.

In a striking match where skill and volume are reasonable even, power tends to make the difference, and that favors Murphy.

UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos

Why Bet on Davey Grant?

The three-fight win streak for Davey Grant (15-6) — his longest since 2012 — petered out thanks to back-to-back “Fight of the Night” decision losses to Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez.

Undeterred, he returned to his finishing ways by stopping Louis Smolka and Raphael Assuncao, upping his bonus total to five in the process. His 11 professional finishes are split 7:4 between submissions and knockouts.

Why Bet on Daniel Marcos?

Peru’s Daniel Marcos (14-0) battled his way past Brandon Lewis to claim a contract on Contender Series. The win set up an Octagon debut against Saimon Oliveira, whom Marcos overpowered en route to a second-round technical knockout.

Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos Betting Analysis:

The power and tenacity are still there for Grant, but he’s had some worrying hiccups of late. He gave away the second round against Smolka and both of the first two against Assuncao. That’s not going to cut it against a young, powerful, aggressive fighter like Marcos; so he can’t rely on turning things around with one big punch, especially since his rival carries his power late.

Grant is still much more proven and experienced than Marcos, and “Soncora’s” win over Oliveira is somewhat undercut by Oliveira utilizing the worst gameplan imaginable. At 37 years old, though, we can’t be sure the veteran has enough left in the tank. In the end, Daniel out-slugs him to a clear victory.

UFC Fight Night: Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons

Why Bet on Danny Roberts?

Danny Roberts (18-7) opened his UFC career 5-2, notably winning “Fight of the Night” for his victories over Dominique Steele and David Zawada. He now finds himself 2-4 in his last six, including a knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena in Nov. 2022.

Why Bet on Jonny Parsons?

Jonny Parsons (8-3) rode a four-fight win streak into Contender Series, where he entered as a sizeable underdog against Solomon Renfro. He nearly succumbed to an early flurry from “The Black Dragon,” but battled back to win the last two rounds and claim a split decision win.

“The Sluggernaut” fights for the first time in 21 months, as a planned Feb. 2022 debut against Micheal Gillmore fell through.

Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons Betting Analysis:

Though Parsons boasts decent Muay Thai, his win over Renfro was less due to Parsons’ abilities and more due to Renfro’s inability to maintain his output. At the same time, Roberts would be 1-5 in the last five years had the judges scored his fight with Ramazan Emeev correctly. He’s so fragile that he can’t be trusted even against someone this limited.

It’s more a gut pick than anything, but we’re going with Parsons. While one would acknowledge that he is a step below the people who’ve beaten Roberts before, he just seems like the more reliable fighter. In short, a knockdown proves the difference in a competitive striking battle.

UFC Fight Night: Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez

Why Bet on Marc Diakiese?

After ruling the roost in BAMMA, Marc Diakiese (16-6) battled his way to a perfect (3-0) UFC start highlighted by a lethal one-punch finish of Teemu Packalen. He’s since dropped six of 10, among them a unanimous decision to Michael Johnson last time out.

Why Bet on Joel Alvarez?

“El Fenomeno” put an unsuccessful UFC debut behind him to win four straight, including upset finishes of Joe Duffy and Thiago Moises. His efforts earned him a fight with Arman Tsarukyan, who battered Alvarez to hand him his first stoppage defeat since 2015. This marks his first bout in nearly 17 months.

Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez Betting Analysis:

While he made his name as a knockout artist, Diakiese has always been willing to wrestle; in fact, it’s what carried him past Frankie Perez in his second UFC bout. That said, he seems to have lost all confidence in his standup, which is bad news here.

We saw against Damir Ismagulov and Tsarukyan that Alvarez is far from invincible off of his back, but he’s more than good enough to punish the sloppy shots Diakiese has become increasingly reliant on. However, If he fought perfectly, “Bone Crusher” could theoretically tear up Alvarez’s legs and potshot his way to victory. As is, he’s too prone to the poor decision-making that Alvarez thrives on punishing. When the dust settles, “El Fenomeno” finds his neck inside for five minutes.

UFC Fight Night: Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues

Why Bet on Mick Parkin?

Mick Parkin (6-0) went 7-0-1 as an amateur before turning professional in 2019. He quickly won his first five professional bouts to earn a spot on Contender Series, where he choked out Eduardo Neves to secure a UFC contract. All of his professional wins have come inside two rounds, five of them by knockout.

Why Bet on Jamal Pogues?

Three years after cruising past Marcos Brigagao in his first Contender Series appearance, Jamal Pogues (10-3) returned to the program as a Heavyweight to beat Paul Renato Jr. He made his UFC debut six months later, powering through injury to win a unanimous decision over Josh Parisian.

Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues Betting Analysis:

You don’t get a lot of genuinely skilled Heavyweights under 30, so seeing two of them square off is a treat.

While it’s close to a mirror match, we’ve got Pogues by a hair. His hands look a bit sharper and a damn sight faster than Parkin’s, and though he’s still carrying a lot of excess weight, his UFC debut was a marked improvement from his second Contender Series bout.

Parkin boasts better top control, but Pogues is quite adept at getting back to his feet and showed off some wrestling skills of his own against Parisian. Plus, he’s a lot more seasoned than Parkin in terms of opponent quality and experience in deep waters. We say he takes over down the stretch for a competitive decision.

UFC Fight Night: Bryan Barberena vs. Makhmud Muradov

Why Bet on Bryan Barberena?

Barberena — fighting for his UFC life after a 3-5 skid — put together three straight wins over Darian Weeks, Matt Brown, and Robbie Lawler. The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of submission losses to Rafael dos Anjos and Gunnar Nelson. His 13 professional finishes include 11 by knockout.

Why Bet on Makhmud Muradov?

Though dogged by inactivity, Makhmud Muradov (25-8) fought his way to three straight UFC wins, two of which earned him Performance of the Night. Then came a come-from-behind submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert, followed by a decision defeat to Contender Series grad Caio Borralho.

Bryan Barberena vs. Makhmud Muradov Betting Analysis:

This just seems like a downright nightmarish matchup for Barberena. If “Bam Bam’s” recent efforts are anything to go by, Muradov can take him down whenever he wants, especially since Barberena will be extremely undersized at 185.

Even if Barberena did somehow channel the spirit of Jose Aldo to keep it standing, Muradov is too fast and elusive for Barberena to hunt down. The Latter’s only chance lies in the first gassing, but it’s hard to get any real attrition going when he can’t corner him or stop him from taking it to the mat. In the end, Muradov dominates on top to sweep him on the scorecards.

UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad

Why Bet on Ketlen Vieira?

Ketlen Vieira (13-3) defeated Miesha Tate and edged out Holly Holm in back-to-back UFC main events. Fortune did not stay on her side, as she dropped an equally controversial split decision to Raquel Pennington her next time out. She’s submitted four opponents and knocked out another two.

Why Bet on Pannie Kianzad?

Pannie Kianzad (17-6) — a The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 finalist — struggled to an 0-2 UFC start. She’s since found her footing with a 5-1 run, which most recently saw her bounce back from a loss to Pennington by beating Lina Lansberg.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad Betting Analysis:

Kianzad’s mental health issues derailed her after an 8-0 pro start, but she refused to fade away. We’d like to see her hard work rewarded, but just don’t think it’ll happen here. She struggled mightily to stay out of the clinch against Pennington and Lansberg, putting her square in Vieira’s wheelhouse.

Vieira has also developed her striking to the point where we’re not sure Kianzad has a clear edge on the feet, especially if she neglects lateral movement as she did for the first two rounds of the Lansberg fight. Pannie has defied the odds before, but there’s just not enough going her way in this matchup. In other words, Ketlen holds her own at a distance and controls the clinch en route to a decision victory.

UFC Fight Night: Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Why Bet on Chris Duncan?

Chris Duncan (10-1) lost his undefeated record to Viacheslav Borshchev in his first Contender Series bid, only to win a contract 10 months later by smashing Charlie Campbell in his return. He then battled Omar Morales in his Octagon proper debut, leaning on his wrestling to win a split decision.

Why Bet on Yanal Ashmouz?

Despite beating Dennis Hughes in PFL’s Challenger Series, “Red Fox” failed to secure a tournament berth. Exactly one year later, he joined UFC instead and promptly upset Sam Patterson with a 75-second knockout. The win marked his fourth knockout and sixth professional finish overall.

Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz Betting Analysis:

On paper, this is a very winnable fight for Duncan. Ashmouz is a powerhouse, but he’s not the sort of technician who could deal with a properly utilized reach advantage. The thing is, Chris is both extremely slow and extremely hittable; he gets rocked with worrying regularity despite boasting genuinely decent kickboxing technique.

Ashmouz showed against Patterson that he can turn a single slip-up into a fight-ending barrage, and he’ll have no shortage of opportunities against this rival. Duncan has a shot if he can keep it at a distance and shut down Yanal’s wrestling, but that’s a lot to ask from someone so prone to getting clipped. In short, Red Fox blasts him with a counter and piles on the hurt until the ref intervenes.

UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Shauna Bannon

Why Bet on Bruna Brasil?

Bruna Brasil (8-3-1) capped off a pristine run (7-0) by flattening Marnic Mann with a head kick on Contender Series. This led to an April 2023 UFC debut against Denise Gomes, who stopped Brasil with a flurry of punches midway through the second. She’s knocked out three pro foes and submitted another two.

Why Bet on Shauna Bannon?

Shauna Bannon (5-0) ended her amateur career on a perfect run (5-0) before turning professional in 2022. She’s split her time in the paid ranks between Invicta and Cage Legacy, most recently beating Minna Grusander in March 2023.

Bruna Brasil vs. Shauna Bannon Betting Analysis:

To be fair, Brasil’s loss to Gomes has aged quite well thanks to Gomes’ mauling of Yazmin Jauregui, but “The Special One’s” red flags were hard to ignore. She seemed unable to manage distance, slowly retreating with her hands down no matter how many times her rival stepped in and plugged her with combinations.

Though Brazil can occasionally compensate with sharp counters, they were nowhere to be seen. That looks like a death sentence against Bannon, who’s fast and technically savvy enough to punish those defensive lapses from bell to bell. The latter also boasts a strong top game that Bruna seemingly has few answers for, so “Mama B” has no shortage of backup plans.

In the end, Bannon controls both the feet and the mat to keep her undefeated record intact.

UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Daniel Barez

Why Bet on Jafel Filho?

Jafel Filho (14-3) extended his win streak to five by battering Roybert Echeverria on Contender Series, earning a UFC contract in the process. He then took on the top prospect, Muhammad Mokaev, and despite badly damaging “The Punisher’s” leg with a third-round kneebar, he ultimately succumbed to a rear-naked choke.

“Pastor” hasn’t seen the judges since 2014 and sports eight submission wins on his record.

Why Bet on Daniel Barez?

Daniel Barez (16-5) — winner of his previous six bouts — started strong against Carlos Hernandez on Contender Series, but failed to match his pace en route to a split decision loss. He soon returned to the Latin American circuit, where he racked up four straight first-round finishes.

Jafel Filho vs. Daniel Barez Betting Analysis:

The deciding factor here is Barez’s gas tank. For our money, he’s got the faster and heavier hands of the two, plus enough wrestling skills to take Filho’s killer submission game off the table. At the same time, he slowed down considerably against Hernandez, and a string of quick finishes over hapless opponents don’t convince me that he’s fixed the issue.

We are just barely leaning Barez’s way, largely because of how damaging his low kicks are and how poorly Filho reacts to them. He does enough damage to Filho in the first two rounds to edge out a decision despite “Pastor’s” late surge.