UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on October 5, 2023 5:32 pm by Erwin Noguera

We are going to take a trip back into the UFC Apex this weekend, with 14 days since the last fight night, as we resume hostilities in the most famous Octagon in the World.

The headliner for this event is quite an interesting fight, as we are getting a lightweight clash between Grant Dawson and the veteran Bobby Green.

The Co-main gives us a Middleweight clash with two talented fighters in the form of Joe Pyfer, who clashes against Abdul Razak Alhassan to increase the hype of the audience on the way to the main event.

There are lots of up-comers on this fight night, so we are expecting this to be a great event for the casual fans to start learning some new names besides the top fighters, and of course, a good chance for veteran fans to see who will be the next fighters to make their way to the top 15 and up.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, October 7th, at 4:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Grant Dawson +299 / Bobby Green -416

Joe Pyfer -454 / Abdul Razak Alhassan +320

Alex Morono +137 / Joaquin Buckley -275

Drew Dober -476 / Ricky Glenn +325

Bill Algeo -140 / Alexander Hernandez +110

Philipe Lins +118 / Ion Cutelaba -151

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -169 / Diana Belbiţă +131

Nate Maness +200 / Mateus Mendonça -263

Kanako Murata -357 / Vanessa Demopoulos +260

Johnny Munoz Jr. -112 / Aoriqileng -113

Montana De La Rosa -142 / JJ Aldrich +112

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

Why Bet on Grant Dawson?

Dawson has been dominating his fights as he is 8-0-1 in the UFC. He beat elite wrestler Mark Madsen and just had his most impressive performance to date by dominating Damir Ismafulov, handing him his second loss ever.

Why Bet on Bobby Green?

Bobby Green gets credit for his great takedown defense, but he hasn’t fought anyone like Grant Dawson (Ignoring the Makhachev fight that he took on a couple days notice), and he’s 3-4 in his last seven with two of his wins being against Al Iaquinta in his retirement fight, and Tony Ferguson who should’ve retired several fights ago.

Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green Final Betting Analysis:

The biggest question in this fight is will Grant Dawson be able to find a hole in Bobby Green’s game, wrestle him down to the ground, and keep him there. If he can, it will be a walk in the park for Dawson.

If Green can work his jab to keep Dawson at a distance and stuff the first couple of takedowns, Green has a really good chance to win a striking battle. In our humble opinion, we do NOT think he has a chance to stop Dawson’s takedowns, and that will be his downfall in this clash.

Dawson showed great cardio last fight, and once he gets Green on the ground and he locks in that tight body triangle, the latter won’t be able to get up for the rest of the round.

UFC Fight Night: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Why Bet on Joe Pyfer?

Pyfer came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and he has two wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Alen Amedovski by TKO and Gerald Meerschaert in the same way. Pyfer’s last loss in his career was against Dustin Stoltzfus by TKO in August 2020

Why Bet on Abdul Razak Alhassan?

Alhassan came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has six wins and five losses since then. In his last six fights, he has two wins and four losses.

He defeated Alessio Di Chirico by KO and Claudio Ribeiro by KO; while losing to Mounir Lazzez by unanimous decision, Khaos Williams by KO, Jacob Malkoun by unanimous decision, and Joaquin Buckley by split decision.

Alhassan has heavy hands that have a lot of power, and he does have good kicks, but his movement isn’t fast, and he doesn’t throw a lot to set up his power strikes.

He’s won two fights out of his last six, and they were to a couple of bad opponents who have lots of holes in their game.

Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Final Betting Analysis:

Joe Pyfer is on the rise, and we believe in his skillset. He has the power to go toe to toe with Alhassan, but he also is more active on the feet and has more speed by moving around and that should help him set up his strikes better.

Alhassan needs his opponents to be flat-footed to land his big shots, and Pyfer won’t just stand still. The one worry could be the latter’s cardio as we haven’t seen a long fight from him, but with how hard these two strike we don’t think this will go into later rounds.

We think we will Pyfer’s game improve each fight, and he’ll show yet another step forward with his win here.

UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley

Why Bet on Alex Morono?

Alex Morono is always undervalued as he’s won five out of six, and his loss was a very short-notice fight that he took while he was sitting on his couch, but his wins are not impressive as three of the guys are out of the UFC, one is almost 40, and the other has lost three out of four.

Why Bet on Joaquin Buckley?

Joaquin Buckley made a smart move by dropping to welterweight after losing to Imavov and Chris Curtis, and he looked much more at home when he fought Andre Fialho getting the 2nd-round KO.

He still had his power, but his speed was better and he’s not fighting guys that hit as hard.

Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley Final Betting Analysis:

Morono has good movement and decent striking, but we believe in Buckley at this weight class. Morono has one KO win in his last 10 fights and that was against the corpse of Donald Cerrone so we don’t think he can tough Buckley hard enough to slow him down.

Buckley will have the power advantage for sure, and we simply don’t know if it will be enough to finish Morono, but the speed and power will be enough to get the win by delivering the most damage.

UFC Fight Night: Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn

Why Bet on Drew Dober?

Drew Dober, 34, suffered only his second knockout loss of his career and his first in the UFC in his last fight. Overall, in the UFC, he is 12-8 with nine finish wins and five finish losses.

Dober is one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC, especially among unranked lightweights. He has immense power, a fabled chin, and a tendency to get into fan-friendly brawls. However, his style, while exciting, has produced mixed results.

Why Bet on Ricky Glenn?

Rick ‘The Gladiator’ Glenn, also 34, is 4-4-1 in the UFC with one knockout win and one loss. That knockout defeat also came in his most recent fight.

Glenn is hyper-aggressive. He is a tall and long striker who also tends to throw wide hooks in the pocket, relying on his durability in these fan-friendly brawls. He likes to press forward early with an awkward and off-beat striking attack that features a wide range of punches and kicks thrown at odd times and from odd angles.

Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn Final Betting Analysis:

It’s pretty hard to see Ricky Glenn pulling the upset after how bad he was against Giagos in his last fight. The fight only lasted 1:35, but Glenn looked slow and sloppy and it cost him as he got knocked out.

Dober’s power should get through to Glenn’s chin, and unless the latter has figured out how to hit as hard as Matt Frevola did in Dober’s last loss, we don’t see a path to victory for him unless he can, somehow, implement the wrestling over three rounds.

It’s just hard to see Glenn getting Dober down and finishing him or winning three rounds before he sparks him on the feet.

UFC Fight Night: Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez

Why Bet on Bill Algeo?

Bill Algeo is 3-1 in his last four, but the loss was when he injured his shoulder in the third round against Andre Fili.

Algeo trades in his fights, dishing out as much damage as he takes, which makes his fights a show for all the fans.

Why Bet on Alexander Hernandez?

Alexander Hernandez is coming off a decision win against Jim Miller, but he had lost two in a row before that. Hernandez is fighting at featherweight now, and in both featherweight fights, he absorbed a ton of damage on the feet while giving out plenty of his own.

Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez Final Betting Analysis:

Algeo can dish it out but can get lit up at times as well, but we do like him to win this fight. We believe he’ll have a takedown or two in this fight, and it is just difficult to like how bad Hernandez has looked with striking defense.

This could be a bloody mess of a fight, and while it should be fun to watch it’s difficult to bet. We wouldn’t play for the distance, but we do like Algeo to win using his striking and takedowns.

UFC Fight Night: Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba

Why Bet on Philipe Lins?

Lins is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 17-5. With nine TKO/KO wins and four submissions under his belt at the age of 38.

‘Monstro’ has fought his way through the lower organizations like Bellator and PFL to make it to the highest level in the UFC in the back half of his career.

Why Bet on Ion Cutelaba?

Cutelaba is a 29-year-old fighter representing the country of Moldova with a professional MMA record of 17-9-1 with 13 KOs and two submissions.

After losing three fights in a row against some of the top light heavyweights in the world, Cutelaba scored a huge TKO win over a talented Tanner Boser to get himself back into the mix of this division.

‘The Hulk’ has that fight alias due to his rageful style of fighting paired with his impressive Hulk-ish physique standing at 6’1” with not too much body fat for a light heavyweight.

Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba Final Betting Analysis:

After watching the tape, Lins shows two different versions of himself when he competes. Sometimes, he seems to have that switch turned on, and sometimes he doesn’t.

His style allows him to be hit. Which can be bad at this level and in the light heavyweight division. He also has added a wrinkle to his offense by switching stances and throwing power shots from both stances back-to-back.

Cutelaba’s tape shows how dynamic of an athlete he is. Being as physically strong as him, it’s rare to be able to move with the fluidity and speed that he has shown.

There have been hiccups in his journey so far, but that’s because he’s been in the octagon with some of the best in the world.

We are, however, expecting Cutelaba’s explosiveness and power to be too much for Lins to handle. The latter doesn’t move off the center line, and the former is very good at covering distance and landing big right hands.

UFC Fight Night: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbiţă

Why Bet on Karolina Kowalkiewicz?

A submission defeat to Jessica Penne at UFC 265 extended Karolina Kowalkiewicz’s (15-7) losing streak to five and left her 2-7 since an undefeated professional start.

She’s since breathed new life into her career with three straight wins, the most recent of which saw her defeat Vanessa Demopoulos in May 2023.

Why Bet on Diana Belbiţă?

‘Warrior Princess’ struggled her way to a 1-3 UFC start, the lone win a decision over Hannah Goldy. After 16 months on the sidelines, she returned to action in June 2023 with a one-sided win over Maria Oliveira in Vancouver.

Six of her 10 professional finishes have come via technical knockout.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbiţă Final Betting Analysis:

She’s had more downs than ups in the Octagon, but we do think Belbita can become a solid Strawweight with the proper seasoning. In her current state, though, she’s in for a rough night. She still shows several lingering striking issues, namely a tendency to dip her head and leave it unprotected after hurling her right hand, which a kickboxer as seasoned as Kowalkiewicz will have a field day exploiting.

Kowalkiewicz’s cleaner hands carried her past a heavier hitter than Belbita in Silvana Gomez Juarez, so we don’t see ‘Warrior Princess’ winning through sheer horsepower.

Plus, Kowalkiewicz has also shown a willingness to wrestle of late. And while she’s not Tatiana Suarez by any means, Belbita’s showed enough grappling issues against Gloria de Paula and Maria Oliveira that it’s a potentially productive avenue for the veteran to explore. In short, superior technique and versatility should carry Kowalkiewicz to her fourth straight win.

UFC Fight Night: Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonça

Why Bet on Nate Maness?

Nate Maness (14-3) — the former TKO Bantamweight champ, battled his way to a perfect (3-0) UFC start that included bonus-winning finishes of Luka Sanders and Tony Gravely.

His momentum failed to punch through a Dagestani wall in the form of Umar Nurmagomedov and Tagir Ulanbekov, who left Maness winless in the last two years.

Why Bet on Mateus Mendonça?

‘Bocao’ capped off a pristine (10-0) professional start by smashing Ashiek Ajim just 48 seconds into their Contender Series bout to join teammate, Charles Oliveira, in the Octagon. His debut pitted him against Javid Basharat, who out-struck him to claim a unanimous decision in Jan. 2023.

His six professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submission.

Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonça Final Betting Analysis:

Though there’s no shame in losing to Basharat — Mendonça looked much shakier than expected in that defeat, particularly in terms of endurance. If he fixes up his gas tank and makes a safe cut to 125 pounds, however, this is his fight to lose.

Maness starts slow and has never been adept at dealing with aggressive strikers, habits that he doesn’t seem able to fix. He had to fight back from disastrously one-sided rounds in all three of his UFC victories, so it’s easy to see a focused Mendonça overpowering him through sheer persistence.

Again, this is all contingent on Mendonça being in shape. His power-punching and wrestling are excellent weapons in this matchup, but he only wins if he stays potent for all 15 minutes. Seeing as Maness’s red flags outnumber Mendonça’s, we’ll stick with the latter to bully his rival for a wide decision.

UFC Fight Night: Kanako Murata vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

Why Bet on Kanako Murata?

The wrestling of Kanako Murata (12-2) carried her to victory in both her Invicta title shot against Emily Ducote and her UFC debut against Randa Markos. It couldn’t do the same against fellow former Invicta champ Virna Jandiroba, who badly injured Murata’s arm on her way to a second-round doctor’s stoppage.

This marks her first bout in 30 months.

Why Bet on Vanessa Demopoulos?

Though she fell short on Contender Series and subsequently dropped a close decision to Lupita Godinez in her first Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title defense, Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5) soon found her way to the Octagon. A loss in her debut gave way to a three-fight win streak, which came to an end at the hands of Karolina Kowalkiewicz in May 2023.

‘Lil’ Monster’ has submitted four professional foes and knocked out one other.

Kanako Murata vs. Vanessa Demopoulos Final Betting Analysis:

Demopoulos enjoys fighting off her back, but as anyone who’s had one too many of their favorite snack can tell you, there can be too much of a good thing. She’ll have few if any, opportunities to utilize her improved standup before Murata slams her to the mat and goes to work from the top.

The big question, then, is whether Demopoulos can submit her from the bottom. We’ve seen Demopoulos pull it off before, notably against Silvana Gomez Juarez after getting badly rocked, and Murata’s inability to fully defend Jandiroba’s armbar proved the key to her defeat last time.

Still, after watching Murata survive every submission Emily Ducote threw her way for five rounds, we think Murata’s got what it takes to grind her out. So long as she’s not too rusty, Murata escapes a near disaster (or two) to secure a comfortable decision.

UFC Fight Night: Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng

Why Bet on Johnny Munoz Jr.?

Johnny Munoz (12-3) started his professional career with an undefeated (10-0) run in Cage Warriors, eight of those wins inside the distance. He’s since alternated losses and wins on his way to a 2-3 UFC record.

His nine professional finishes include seven via submission.

Why Bet on Aoriqileng?

Aoriqileng (24-10) evened up his UFC record after a 2-2 start with back-to-back wins over Cameron Else and Jay Perrin. Then came Aiemann Zahabi, who handed him the first (technical) knockout loss of his eight-year career just 64 seconds into the first round.

Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng Final Betting Analysis:

The knee-jerk response after seeing Munoz fall apart against Daniel Santos is to expect another collapse against another pressure fighter. ‘Willycat’ has one very important skill that Aoriqileng doesn’t, however, and that’s ridiculous takedown defense.

Munoz is a decorated jiu-jitsu player and solid wrestler, while Aoriqileng gave up a combined 10 minutes of control time against Cody Durden and Jay Perrin.

Between Munoz’s jab and wrestling, Aoriqileng is going to have tons of issues consistently doing damage, especially if getting smashed like that damaged his confidence.

Aoriqileng could still wear him down, as Munoz has faded more than once, but even a gassed-to-death Durden managed to neutralize the former. In the end, Jhonny’s wrestling should be sufficient to keep him afloat.

UFC Fight Night: Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich

Why Bet on Montana De La Rosa?

Mixed success on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 didn’t stop Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1) from winning four of her first five UFC bouts, the lone loss coming to Andrea Lee. The run wasn’t to last, as she now sits at 1-3-1 in her last five.

All but one of her nine professional finishes have come via submission.

Why Bet on JJ Aldrich?

JJ Aldrich (12-6) quietly put together a 7-3 UFC start before running afoul of Erin Blanchfield and Ariane Lipski. She returned to form against Na Liang, pounding out ‘Dragon Girl’ to claim her first finish in nearly seven years.

She steps in for Stephanie Egger on around two weeks’ notice for her second bout in six weeks.

Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich Final Betting Analysis:

As ugly as De La Rosa’s record looks, she hasn’t lost to a bad fighter since her winless (0-2) professional start. We still don’t like her chances here because her chances of victory hinge entirely on her ability to consistently take down and control her opponents, something Aldrich has historically proven resistant to.

Indeed, Gillian Robertson had nothing for Aldrich and we’d tab ‘The Savage’ as a superior grappler to De La Rosa.

Lipski did admittedly take down Aldrich twice, but ‘Violence Queen’ is a serious threat on the feet, which is not a descriptor we’d apply to De La Rosa. In short, against a one-note takedown artist, Aldrich has all the tools she needs to sprawl and brawl her way to victory.