UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on September 21, 2023 1:52 pm by Erwin Noguera

After the exciting event we had at ‘Noche UFC’ in Las Vegas, we are going to relocate nearby, traveling from the T-Mobile Arena to the UFC Apex to get some up-and-coming talent showcasing their skillsets in a new Fight Night.

We are getting quite an interesting headliner as Rafael Fiziev meets Mateusz Gamrot in a Lightweight clash to see who should march forward in the rankings.

The co-main gives us Featherweight talent in the form of Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige clashing on the Octagon to make a statement in the division.

There is a ton of talent showing up on Saturday for this event so we encourage all fans, both veterans and newcomers, to tune in to enjoy 11 fights built up from 5 main card bouts, and 6 prelims.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

When:

Saturday, September 23rd, at 4:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Rafael Fiziev -161 / Mateusz Gamrot +127

Bryce Mitchell -222 / Dan Ige +170

Marina Rodriguez -322 / Michelle Waterson-Gomez +238

Bryan Battle -192 / AJ Fletcher +148

Charles Jourdain -142 / Ricardo Ramos +111

Miles Johns +147 / Dan Argueta -188

Tim Means +148 / Andre Fialho -192

Jacob Malkoun -555 / Cody Brundage +364

Jake Collier +122 / Mohammed Usman -156

Mizuki Inoue -333 / Hannah Goldy +243

Montserrat Rendon +188 / Tamires Vidal -250

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Why Bet on Rafael Fiziev?

Rafael Fiziev was an undefeated prospect when he signed with the UFC in 2019 with six wins and six finishes. He made his Octagon debut in April 2019 against Magomed Mustafaev and suffered a first-round TKO loss. But ‘Ataman’ rebounded from that debut defeat and racked up six straight victories, beginning with a unanimous decision win over Alex White in October 2019.

The Tiger Muay Thai representative added Marc Diakiese, Renato Moicano, Bobby Green, Brad Riddell, and Rafael Dos Anjos to his pile of wins and earned a massive fight with former UFC interim lightweight champion Gaethje in March 2023. Fiziev held his own against ‘The Highlight’ in a competitive back-and-forth match but came up short as Gaethje took the majority decision win.

Why Bet on Mateusz Gamrot?

Mateusz Gamrot was also an undefeated prospect when he signed with the UFC in 2020. He was even the former KSW lightweight champion with multiple title defenses. ‘The Gamer’ officially made his UFC debut in October 2020 but lost to Guram Kutateladze in a close bout via split decision. The 32-year-old quickly rebounded from that defeat and won his next five fights.

Gamrot defeated Scott Holtzman, Jeremy Stephens, Diego Ferreira, and Arman Tsarukyan before Beneil Dariush snapped his winning streak in October 2022 with a unanimous decision defeat. The Polish made his way back to the winning column by defeating Turner in his previous fight in March 2023 to maintain his ranking in the top 10.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Final Betting Analysis:

Gamrot is an incredibly technical fighter who does a great job of controlling his opponent with grappling and landing enough strikes to frustrate his opponent, and we don’t think Fiziev is going to be able to figure out the traps that Gamrot sets for him.

Fiziev has more power in his strikes, but Gamrot won’t allow himself to get into a brawl as that’s what happened against Dariush, and he lost.

In his next fight, he controlled Jalin Turner, and although the fight wasn’t exciting it ended up being a Gamrot win.

Gaetje exposed some holes in the defense of Fiziev, and someone as fast and smart as Gamrot would take advantage of those, and he would probably surprise Fiziev in the wrestling department.

UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige

Why Bet on Bryce Mitchell?

Mitchell is a dangerous fighter, having begun his career 9-0 before debuting in the UFC back in 2019. He then proceeded to win his next five fights in a row, securing four of those victories by unanimous decision.

Unfortunately, Mitchell’s undefeated ways came to an end at UFC 282. ‘Thug Nasty’ stepped into the ring with Ilia Topuria in Las Vegas, losing via second-round submission.

It’s been more than nine months since his last fight, though, leaving time to tell if he’ll have any cage rust.

Why Bet on Dan Ige?

We wonder what version of Dan Ige shows up in that night; On one hand, it wasn’t that long ago that the 32-year-old was stuck in the worst stretch of his career. Ige fought to a 1-4 record from July 2020 to June 2022, even losing three fights in a row.

On the other hand, he’s coming off back-to-back victories over Damon Jackson and Nate Landwehr, defeating them by KO and unanimous decision, respectively. If he’s successful on Saturday, it’ll be Ige’s first three-fight winning streak in over three years.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Final Betting Analysis:

Mitchell is our pick to win the Co-Main event. He’s the more well-rounded competitor and his grappling skills truly give him an edge. Ige struggles against proficient wrestlers, highlighted by his being taken down nine times during his loss to Movsar Evloev.

Expect Mitchell to return to his winning ways as he ascends the featherweight rankings.

UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez 2

Why Bet on Marina Rodriguez?

Since their first fight, Rodriguez nearly locked down a title shot before losing a couple of fights to top-tier talent. She beat multiple Top Five-ranked opponents.

Rodriguez had success while letting her hands go on the inside and winning the fight on the scorecards due to her output and ability to land punches.

Why Bet on Michelle Waterson-Gomez?

‘The Karate Hottie,’ meanwhile, is winless since their first fight! Given that Rodriguez cleanly won the first fight, it makes very little sense to book a rematch after her result results.

Waterson is just barely hanging onto her spot in the rankings.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez Final Betting Analysis:

At 37 years of age, why would we expect the 16-year pro to show the considerable development and improvement necessary to get the better of Rodriguez two years later?

It’s nonsensical. Rodriguez was the vastly superior striker in 2021, and there’s no reason to believe that’s no longer the case.

We are easily picking Rodriguez to win in this clash.

UFC Fight Night: Bryan Battle vs. AJ Fletcher

Why Bet on Bryan Battle?

Battle might just be something special. He’s one of those fighters who isn’t spectacular on paper, but he’s consistently exceeded expectations. Nobody expected him to win The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), let alone four of his first five UFC fights. Better yet, the submission ace has picked up his last two wins via knockout!

Why Bet on AJ Fletcher?

Fletcher is a 26-year-old professional MMA prospect with a record of 10-2, and nine of those victories have come with a finish. He has an impressive physique for a welterweight but lacks some length to his frame.

Fletcher is still finding his footing inside the Octagon, having recently scored his first win. He’s an aggressive finisher, capable on both the canvas and in the stand-up.

Bryan Battle vs. AJ Fletcher Final Betting Analysis:

Fletcher is majorly aggressive, but he leaves openings in the process. Given Battle’s developing range offense and countering skills, that feels like a problem, especially with the reach differential. Maybe Fletcher can make up for it by changing levels, but that’s historically not his usual path to victory.

More likely, he gets cracked on his way into the pocket and fails to get his offense going.

UFC Fight Night: Charles Jourdain vs. Ricardo Ramos

Why Bet on Charles Jourdain?

Jourdain is a Canadian fighter with a professional MMA record of 14-6-1, with eight TKO/KO wins and four wins by submission. At the age of only 27, this is his 12th UFC bout.

‘Air’ is one of the most fun fighters to watch on the roster. He is consistently getting into fight-of-the-night contenders but has only won it once.

He was also a two-division champion in the TKO Major League MMA promotion before signing with the UFC.

Jourdain is more of a specialist, an all-action striker. His jiu-jitsu is also quite good, but it’s rare to see him attempt a game plan other than high-volume kickboxing.

Why Bet on Ricardo Ramos?

Ramos is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 16-4 with four TKO/KO wins and seven submissions. At the age of 28, he is 7-3 inside the UFC and will be making his 11th walk to the octagon.

Ramos hasn’t managed to break into the rankings, but he’s proven himself a skilled athlete capable of creating some incredible finishes. He’s got a real penchant for spinning techniques, but the Brazilian is overall a well-rounded and athletic fighter.

Charles Jourdain vs. Ricardo Ramos Final Betting Analysis:

Jourdain has some major Carlos Condit vibes. He’s aggressive and dangerous, but he’s also prone to giving away takedowns. If he’s dealing with an opponent who cannot match his pace or kickboxing at all, it usually doesn’t matter. Against someone who can threaten him in both realms, however, he ends up spending too much time on the bottom.

Ramos is a technical kickboxer with a knack for timing takedowns, and he’s quick to jump the back in scrambles too. Likely, he’ll strike Jourdain long enough to bait him into over-extending, at which point he’ll start wracking up control time with his double-leg shot.

It’ll be competitive and fun, but takedowns make the difference.

UFC Fight Night: Miles Johns vs. Dan Argueta

Why Bet on Miles Johns?

Miles Johns (13-2) followed his Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title-winning decision over Adrian Yanez with a contract-winning decision over Richie Santiago on Contender Series. He currently sits at 5-2 in the Octagon, most recently beating Vince Morales in Nov. 2022.

Why Bet on Dan Argueta?

Dan Argueta (9-1) bounced back from his UFC debut loss, cruising past late replacement Nick Aguirre seven months later. ‘The Determined’ started strong his next time out against Ronnie Lawrence but had to settle for a “No Contest” after the referee mistakenly assumed that Argueta’s guillotine put ‘The Heat’ to sleep.

His six professional finishes are split 4:2 between submissions and knockouts.

Miles Johns vs. Dan Argueta Final Betting Analysis:

‘Chapo’ has the tools to win this. Argueta is extremely easy to hit and very one-note outside of his takedowns; between Johns’ jab and wrestling pedigree, the ingredients for victory are there. Unfortunately for Johns, he’s never quite figured out how to keep his foot on the gas. Argueta has more than proven his ability to walk through fire and execute his game plan, while Johns can’t be trusted to excel even in favorable circumstances.

If Johns could just break his propensity for passivity, he’d have several winning matchups in the division (Argueta included). As-is, expect Argueta’s doggedness to carry the day as he shrugs off Johns’ limited return fire to keep him either stuck on the fence or stuck on his back for the bulk of three rounds.

UFC Fight Night: Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho

Why Bet on Tim Means?

Now more than a decade removed from his UFC debut, Tim Means (32-15-1) went from reigniting his career with a 4-1 run to losing his last three. ‘The Dirty Bird’ last saw action in May, slugging it out with Alex Morono before falling victim to ‘The Great White’s’ guillotine choke.

Why Bet on Andre Fialho?

Four consecutive first-round knockouts — two of them over UFC veterans James Vick and Setafn Sekulic — earned Andre Fialho (16-7) a UFC berth in 2022. He’s currently 2-4 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, suffering three consecutive knockouts en route to Saturday’s return.

Thirteen of his 14 finishes have come by knockout.

Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho Final Betting Analysis:

Best as we can tell, Means has the less-damning losing streak of the two. Yes, he’s well past his expiration date, but he kept pace with Max Griffin and Alex Morono for much of their fights. He can still bust out plenty of his old tricks, while Fialho has seemingly been stuck in first gear since smoking the undersized Cameron VanCamp.

Fialho’s ongoing habit of freezing up against competent strikers figures to rear its head once again, and though he still has that death hook at his disposal, it hasn’t shown itself against strong competition of late. Means’ more diverse kickboxing attack overwhelms Fialho to his first (technical) knockout finish in nearly a half-decade.

UFC Fight Night: Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage

Why Bet on Jacob Malkoun?

Jacob Malkoun (7-2) joined UFC at 4-0, only to suffer an 18-second knockout loss to Phil Hawes in his debut. He went on to win three of his next four, the sole loss a narrow one to Brendan Allen.

Why Bet on Cody Brundage?

Undaunted by an unsuccessful Contender Series bid and a loss in his UFC debut, Brundage rattled off back-to-back first-round finishes. Then came three straight defeats, the most recent of which saw him implode against heavy underdog Sedriques Dumas in June 2023.

He steps in for Robert Bryczek — who himself stepped in for Aliaskhab Khizriev — on less than three weeks’ notice.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage Final Betting Analysis:

As much as we respect Brundage for stepping up to the plate, it’s hard to even imagine this going well for him. All five of his professional defeats can be chalked up to the fact that he’s a non-factor off of his back, whereas Malkoun is ready, willing, able, and eager to place him at every opportunity. It also doesn’t help that Brundage regularly folds at the first sign of adversity.

Brundage’s only options are to either successfully sprawl and brawl or finally land the guillotine that doomed him against Dumas and Rodolfo Vieira. Neither seems particularly likely, as Malkoun is capable enough on the feet to avoid Brundage’s power swings and is too decorated a grappler to fall victim to a one-note submission attack. In short, Malkoun grinds out another decision without issue.

UFC Fight Night: Jake Collier vs. Mohammed Usman

Why Bet on Jake Collier?

Jake Collier (13-9) went from Middleweight to Light Heavyweight amid a 3-3 UFC start, then spent nearly three years on the sidelines before returning as a Heavyweight. He’s 2-5 in his newest weight class, including three straight defeats.

He’s knocked out five professional foes and submitted three others.

Why Bet on Mohammed Usman?

Mohammed Usman (9-2) defied the odds to claim victory on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 30, capping off his run with a dramatic knockout of Zac Pauga at the Finale. ‘Motor’ then welcomed kickboxing veteran, Junior Tafa, to UFC, surviving some brutal punches to grind out a unanimous decision.

Jake Collier vs. Mohammed Usman Final Betting Analysis:

We’re not asking Collier to juice himself back down to 205 pounds, but weighing in at the Heavyweight limit isn’t working for him. Twice in a row, he’s dominated his opponents in the first round, only to steadily fall apart down the stretch.

He can’t afford to be in such poor shape against Usman. That’s because bereft of what we would call “functional technique,” Usman has the toughness to shrug off huge haymakers and the gas tank to keep grinding well into the third round.

This just seems like a repeat of the Buday fight, though Usman is certainly weaker than ‘Badys.’ In short, expect Collier to dominate early with his superior striking craft before fatigue allows Usman to consistently tie up and neutralize him for a narrow decision win.

UFC Fight Night: Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy

Why Bet on Mizuki Inoue?

Mizuki Inoue (14-6) made the jump from Invicta to UFC in 2019, announcing her arrival with a narrow decision over Wu Yanan. Then came Amanda Lemos, who out-muscled Inoue en route to a one-sided decision win.

This marks her first fight in three years.

Why Bet on Hannah Goldy?

A decision over Kali Robbins earned Hannah Goldy (6-3) her fifth straight win and a UFC contract in 2019. She’s 1-3 in the Octagon, the lone win an upset armbar against Emily Whitmire.

Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy Final Betting Analysis:

As dazzling as Inoue could be, her lack of size and shaky takedown defense kept her from utilizing her rapid-fire boxing to its full potential. While there’s no telling if she fixed those issues during her time away (though one would hope so under the tutelage of Ray Longo), even the 2020 incarnation of her is too much for Goldy. ‘Queen of Sparta’ was decisively out-struck in her three UFC defeats and I’d deem Inoue a better boxer than at least two of those women.

We just don’t see what Goldy has to offer in this matchup. And as yoked as she is, we don’t believe I’ve seen her use that strength to physically overpower people like previous Inoue opponents. In the end, Inoue should be just too fast and sharp for her, so expect a one-sided victory.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Rendon vs. Tamires Vidal

Why Bet on Montserrat Rendon?

After picking up wins in Combate Global and Freedom Fight Night, Montserrat Rendon (5-0) made the move to Invicta in 2022. Her lone appearance in the promotion saw her narrowly edge out Brittney Cloudy for a split-decision win.

Why Bet on Tamires Vidal?

Wins over Martina Jindrova, Ailin Perez, and Queila Braga brought Tamires Vidal (7-1) to the Octagon in 2022. There, she announced her arrival by stopping Ramona Pascual with a flying knee for her first-ever (technical) knockout win.

Her two other stoppage wins came via submission.

Montserrat Rendon vs. Tamires Vidal Final Betting Analysis:

Vidal had nothing for Perez when they fought, only emerging victorious thanks to Perez’s insistence on fouling at every opportunity, and Pascual was darn close to the bottom of the barrel. That said, we are flat-out not impressed with Rendon, a woman 10 years Vidal’s senior who’s seemingly still in her developmental phase. Vidal is the more powerful woman and seemingly holds an edge in Rendon’s preferred clinch; given ‘Monster’s’ lack of finishing skills, that leaves her precious few options with which to claim victory.

What Rendon does have, however, is a knack for winning questionable decisions thanks to her high-volume striking. That could be enough to win the day if Vidal can’t consistently get hold of her, but we like Vidal to exploit Rendon’s wonky footwork, find the clinch, and grind her out from the top for a wide decision win.