UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on September 14, 2023 2:40 pm by Erwin Noguera

This next UFC Fight Night is going to be one hell of a show, especially for the Mexican MMA and UFC community out there, as this event in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada is labeled ‘NOCHE UFC’, taking place on September 16th, which is the Mexican Independence Day, and it multiple Mexican fighters in the card, including the main event.

Besides having a Mexican in the main event, the headliner is also an exciting rematch between the Flyweight Champion, Alexa Grasso, who shocked the world by taking over the Title, and Valentina Shevchenko, who is now looking to repay the favor as they meet again.

The Co-main has Kevin “Trailblazer” Holand, and he will be fighting Jack Della Maddalena, so we are expecting one hell of a bout in the Welterweight Division.

We have Talents like Raul Rosas Jr., Daniel Zellhuber, Fernando Padilla, Lupita Godinez, and also, the recently debuted Edgar Chairez, all representing the Mexican Flag as they hype the event up to the headliner.

With 11 fights on the card, 6 of them Prelims, and 5 of them being the main event card, we are eager to see things unfold in the octagon.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When: Saturday, September 16th, at 7:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Alexa Grasso +145 / Valentina Shevchenko -175

Kevin Holland +124 / Jack Della Maddalena -148

Raul Rosas Jr. -750 / Terrence Mitchell +525

Daniel Zellhuber -285 / Christos Giagos +230

Fernando Padilla -250 / Kyle Nelson +205

Lupita Godinez -440 / Elise Reed +340

Roman Kopylov -345 / Josh Fremd +275

Edgar Cháirez -258 / Daniel Lacerda +210

Tracy Cortez -118 / Jasmine Jasudavicius -102

Charlie Campbell -230 / Alex Reyes +340

Josefine Knutsson -575 / Marnic Mann +410

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Why Bet on Alexa Grasso?

The first women’s champion from Mexico has already made history and she has already pulled off one of the biggest title upsets in recent years. Now she’s the UFC’s pound-for-pound best women’s fighter.

But it wasn’t just a moment of luck. Grasso prepared for Shevchenko and it showed. Clips of her practicing the exact submission based on Shevchenko’s habit of throwing the exact kick that led to her loss surfaced and a bigger legend for the night was born.

Alexa Grasso didn’t just see the small window of opportunity. She had staked out the house for nights and knew exactly what time Shevchenko would open it.

Though she won by submission, her boxing is where it’s at. She would probably serve herself best by keeping her distance in a rematch like this. Either way, Grasso should rely on her crisp jab, velocity, and composed nature.

Grasso was also on a winning streak before facing the champ. She had notched wins in a row over Kim Ji-Yeon, Maycee Barber, Joanne Wood, and Viviane Araujo before taking out Shevchenko.

She also has UFC wins over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Randa Markos.

But most importantly, she’s undefeated since making the move up to flyweight back in 2020. And she doesn’t look to stop that streak anytime soon.

Why Bet on Valentina Shevchenko?

It’s fair to question if Valentina Shevchenko is slipping since she’s 35 years old and has been fighting against the top MMA fighters in the world for almost a decade (not to mention another 59 pro fights as a kickboxer).

She barely took a split decision against Taila Santos before her title loss and it was clear that Alexa Grasso had the edge in the stand-up. Shevchenko wasn’t quite as fast in the boxing exchanges and when she was caught in a submission in the fourth round it was far from a fluke. That said, a few things from that fight do stand out in her favor.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Betting Analysis:

Shevchenko had a tough time getting into a rhythm when the usually orthodox Grasso switched stances but she should be better prepared for Grasso to go southpaw this time around.

The Kyrgystany did seem to take some control in the second and third rounds when she had four takedowns and controlled Grasso for more than five minutes on the mat.

As a former strawweight, Grasso isn’t as strong as Shevchenko who used to compete at bantamweight, and if ‘Bullet’ can rely on her offensive wrestling she should be able to win rounds.

This is, however, where Grasso’s discipline and the time spent watching Shevchenko’s tapes kicks in, the first fight was finished by a move practiced especially for her rival, and we believe she has more than one trick up her sleeve this time.

UFC Fight Night: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Why Bet on Kevin Holland?

Kevin Holland is renowned as being one of the most active fighters on the UFC’s roster. ‘Trailblazer’ regularly fights four or five times per year, a rarity in the modern era.

He might not have the title reigns of some fighters, but he’s one of the most accomplished individuals in UFC history, having set various records, including the most strikes landed and wins in a calendar year when it comes to the middleweight division’s history.

‘Trailblazer’ has also been solid since moving to the welterweight division, going 4-2 in six fights. Each of those victories came by some form of finish, winning twice by TKO and another two times via submission.

Why Bet on Jack Della Maddalena?

Della Maddalena is one of the hottest fighters in MMA at the moment, having won 15 consecutive bouts. He’s made a name for himself by finishing opponents left and right during that run, boasting an 86.7% finish rate with 11 knockouts and two submission victories.

On top of that, the 27-year-old switch striker won four of his last five fights in the first round, earning ‘performance of the night honors’ thrice. Having said that, he’s coming off a split-decision win over Bassil Hafez in his most recent fight back in July.

Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Betting Analysis:

JDM is a talented prospect, and we’re still bullish on his chances at becoming a future champion, but he should not be too favored against a fighter of Holland’s caliber. ‘Trailblazer’ has tangled with far better opponents than Della Maddalena, including his last foe, Michael Chiesa, whom he submitted in Round 1.

Either way, this fight should be a war. And in that situation, it’s still always better to lean underdog.

For props, we’ll be looking at Holland to win by decision, though we don’t hate a very small sprinkle on Holland by submission. JDM looked super beatable on the ground in his last fight vs. late-notice replacement Bassil Hafez, and his rival owns three submission wins.

UFC Fight Night: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell

Why Bet on Raul Rosas Jr.?

The Rosas Jr. experiment is far from over, but it certainly hit a speed bump when the teenager wunderkind was shut down by Christian Rodriguez. That bout demonstrated that a slower roll was necessary for the young talent, but there’s no shame in climbing the ranks slowly. He remains a prospect, a gifted grappler still refining the rest of his game.

Why Bet on Terrence Mitchell?

Alaska’s Mitchell is in the habit of crushing cans if we’re being honest. Even with 17 pro fights on his record, “Terr-Bear” has yet to beat anyone particularly good, though he does usually finish his opposition.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell Betting Analysis:

Let’s cut to the chase: this is a bounce-back fight. Mitchell is a grappler who got overwhelmed on the mat last time out, and UFC is expecting a similar outcome here. Rosas Jr. has the physical gifts to toss Mitchell to the canvas and overwhelm him, and if nothing else, he showed some grit in his loss to Rodriguez, fighting to the final bell.

Mitchell isn’t going to be able to handle the early blitz, and even if he does, he’s never demonstrated the endurance required to outlast Rosas Jr.

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos

Why Bet on Daniel Zellhuber?

Zellhuber is a rather nasty striker, even if he hasn’t managed to score a knockout inside the Octagon just yet. His distance kickboxing is solid, his shots obviously carry good power, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the 6’1” Mexican talent has a 77-inch reach to deliver his shots.

Why Bet on Christos Giagos?

Giagos has established himself as a jack of all trades inside the Octagon. He wrestles well, has fluid kickboxing, and transitions nicely on the floor, but elite opposition can usually overwhelm him in at least one of those aspects.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos Betting Analysis:

The question here is a fairly simple one: can Giagos consistently get this thing to the ground? On the feet, he’s not technically overmatched, but he’s going to end up stranded at range with a more powerful and longer kickboxer. Zellhuber is also nearly a decade younger with an edge in athleticism — that all sounds like bad news!

If Giagos can get his wrestling going, the rest of his game works better too. If his first few attempts are stuffed, however, the concern that Zellhuber just tees off on him is pretty considerable, and we are expecting it to work for the Mexican fighter.

UFC Fight Night: Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson

Why Bet on Fernando Padilla?

Fernando “El Valiente” Padilla is not just another name in the stacked UFC featherweight division; he’s a combat juggernaut.

His impressive record of 15 wins and only 4 losses set a lofty benchmark for his contemporaries.

Beyond the numbers, Padilla embodies a blend of physical prowess and tactical brilliance that can be a nightmare for any opponent.

Yet, with great power comes significant vulnerability. The trade-off for his aggressive, crowd-pleasing style is a less-than-robust defense.

Why Bet on Kyle Nelson?

Kyle ‘The Monster’ Nelson is a fighter whose very nickname encapsulates his approach to MMA—a bit of everything, all done exceedingly well. Nelson brings to the table a respectable record of 14-5-1.

He can switch gears and employ a variety of attacks that could keep even the most seasoned striker on their toes.

Defensively, he presents a robust picture.

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Betting Analysis:

Based on both fighters’ stats and recent performances, it’s evident that this bout will be an epic showdown between a striker and a well-rounded fighter.

While Nelson can use grappling and more balanced games as potential paths to victory against Padilla’s overpowering, striking power and reach advantage, when coupled with his 100% takedown defense rating, it becomes increasingly likely that Padilla can keep the fight on his preferred domain: on foot.

Padilla may exploit his opponent’s advantages to secure another win and improve upon an already impressive resume.

UFC Fight Night: Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed

Why Bet on Lupita Godinez?

Lupita Godinez (10-3) struggled her way to a 1-2 UFC start, an armbar finish of Silvana Gomez Juarez sandwiched between decision losses to Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina. ‘Loopy’ enters the cage this Saturday 4-1 in her last five appearances, including a perfect (2-0) 2023 run that saw her beat Cynthia Calivllo and Emily Ducote in less than two months.

Why Bet on Elise Reed?

Reed’s pristine professional start (4-0) saw her beat Jasmine Jasudavicius for CFFC gold in her second bout, and then make two successful defenses before her short-notice UFC debut. She sits at 3-3 in the Octagon, notably upsetting prospects Cory McKenna and Melissa Martinez along the way.

This marks her second change of opponent for the evening, as she was previously slated to meet Cynthia Calvillo and Iasmin Lucindo.

Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed Betting Analysis:

Godinez can make this very, very easy on herself if she just leans on her wrestling. Reed is elusive, sure, but each of her UFC opponents has taken her down at least once. Godinez is a better wrestler than all of them save Sijara Eubanks, and that’s only by Eubanks being at least 20 pounds bigger than ‘Loopy.’

What makes Godinez so frustrating to follow is that you could have said the same thing about her fight with Angela Hill, whom she insisted on trying to box. Conversely, she could have out-boxed Penne and Carolina but insisted on trying to grapple them. That said, she still manages to win most of the time and has such an obvious edge on the ground that I can’t pick against her. In the end, she dominates Reed on the mat for her third win of the year.

UFC Fight Night: Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd

Why Bet on Roman Kopylov?

Various issues held Roman Kopylov (11-2) to just two UFC appearances in nearly three years, both of them losses at the hands of Karl Roberson and Albert Duraev. He subsequently reignited his career with three consecutive knockouts, the most recent of which saw him smoke Claudio Ribeiro with a head kick less than two months ago.

Outside of his professional debut, all of his wins have come by knockout.

Why Bet on Josh Fremd?

A gutsy effort couldn’t carry Josh Fremd (11-4) past Anthony Hernandez in his UFC debut, nor could it save him from a Tresean Gore guillotine his next time out. He’s since scored back-to-back wins over Sedriques Dumas and Jamie Pickett, though he did miss weight by three pounds against the latter.

He replaces Anthony Hernandez on short notice for his second bout in little more than one month.

Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd Betting Analysis:

First off, props to Fremd — he nuked the scales and underwhelmed against someone he should have out-classed, so we respect the bid for immediate redemption. It’s just not going to go well. Kopylov has him thoroughly out-classed in terms of kickboxing technique and has proven enormously difficult to take down during his Octagon tenure.

Fremd’s best shot at victory lies in neutralizing Kopylov against the fence and steadily wearing him down until fatigue dulls Kopylov’s edge. Unfortunately for him, Kopylov gets stronger as fights progress and completely outclassed a stronger grappler in Punahele Soriano. In short, he shuts down Fremd’s wrestling and takes him apart on the feet en route to another stoppage win.

UFC Fight Night: Edgar Cháirez vs. Daniel Lacerda

Why Bet on Edgar Cháirez?

Edgar Chairez (10-5) put his unsuccessful Contender Series bid behind him with a pair of submission wins, the latter of which earned him both Fury FC gold and viral infamy when the referee failed to recognize that he’d choked Gianni Vazquez unconscious.

He then stepped up to battle top prospect Tatsuro Taira on short notice, whom Chairez dropped in the first round but failed to put away in the last seconds en route to a decision loss.

Why Bet on Daniel Lacerda?

‘Miojo’ entered the Octagon in 2021 at 11-1, his sole loss a freak injury stoppage two years prior. He’s yet to claim his first UFC victory, suffering four consecutive stoppage losses, but taking home the ‘Fight of the Night’ prize for his March 2023 brawl with C.J. Vergara.

His 11 finishes include 10 in the first round.

Edgar Cháirez vs. Daniel Lacerda Betting Analysis:

What’s interesting about this fight is that both men have only one round of cardio, but they compensate in two very different yet equally unsuccessful ways.

Chairez tries to make that thimble-sized gas tank last the distance, resulting in minutes at a time of total lethargy, while Lacerda lets the afterburners roar from the opening bell and flames out inappropriately spectacular fashion.

Though Lacerda’s approach is far more entertaining, odds are it’ll once again let him down. Chairez is tough enough to weather the early explosion and pounce once Lacerda is running on fumes; for all his faults, Chairez knows how to capitalize on the sorts of opportunities Lacerda will give him. When the dust settles, he fights out of an early deficit by finding Lacerda’s neck for the comeback finish.

UFC Fight Night: Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Why Bet on Tracy Cortez?

Tracy Cortez (10-1) — the sole woman to beat Erin Blanchfield — defeated Mariya Agapova on season three of Contender Series to earn a UFC berth in 2019. She’s fought just four times in the last four years, though each bout produced a decision win.

This marks her first bout in 16 months.

Why Bet on Jasmine Jasudavicius?

Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2) followed her Contender Series win with an upset of Kay Hansen, only to run afoul of Natalia Silva her next time out. Undeterred, she’s put together a 2023 campaign that features decision wins over Gabriella Fernandes and Miranda Maverick.

Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Betting Analysis:

Jasudavicius has a big lack of speed, poor defense, and questionable takedown defense, but she just keeps gritting her way to victory.

She can do so again here if she keeps Cortez on the back foot, which is how Melissa Gatto found significant success. On the other hand, she’s not as quick or sharp as Gatto on the feet, preferring instead to maul her way to victory. That leaves her hips open to opponents willing and able to shoot. And even though she managed to cow Maverick, ‘Fear the’ has always struggled against fellow wrestlers. In short, Cortez seems like a tougher nut to crack, so expect her to grind her way to a narrow win.

UFC Fight Night: Charlie Campbell vs. Alex Reyes

Why Bet on Charlie Campbell?

Charlie Campbell (7-2) brought a five-fight win streak into the Contender Series, where he found himself inches from victory before succumbing to a comeback knockout from Chris Duncan. ‘The Cannibal’ returned to action 10 months later in CFFC, securing his fourth win in the promotion with a violent finish of Josh Streaker.

He steps in for Natan Levy on one week’s notice.

Why Bet on Alex Reyes?

Alex Reyes (13-3) — who hadn’t lost since a winless (0-2) professional start — stepped up in weight on a three-week turnaround to battle Mike Perry in Pittsburgh. His results did not match his courage, as “Platinum” crushed him with a knee just 79 seconds into the first round.

This marks his first fight in exactly six years, as a 2018 fight with Nasrat Haqparast and a Feb. 2023 fight with Trevor Peek both fell through.

Charlie Campbell vs. Alex Reyes Betting Analysis:

There’s only so much analysis that can be done here because six years may as well be a lifetime in mixed martial arts (MMA); therefore, there’s no telling how Reyes will look in the cage. We can say, however, that Campbell is pretty nightmarish as far as homecoming opponents go. ‘The Cannibal’ packs serious power and vicious killer instinct, so it wouldn’t surprise us at all to see Reyes once again caught cold in the opening minutes.

Maybe Reyes reinvented himself in his time away and will enter the cage looking like brother, Dominick Reyes, in the latter’s prime, but that’s a whole heck of rust to shake off. In the end, Campbell bulldozes Reyes before the latter can find his footing.

UFC Fight Night: Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann

Why Bet on Josefine Knutsson?

Allstar’s Josefine Knutsson (6-0) was perfect on UFC Fight Pass (2-0), with wins in Road to UFC and UAE Warriors. These carried her to the Contender Series, where she dominated Isis Verbeek but failed to land a contract.

Why Bet on Marnic Mann?

Marnic Mann (6-1) went 3-0 as an amateur and 5-0 as a professional en route to a Contender Series date with Bruna Brasil, who stopped “The Sawed-Off Savage” with a head kick late in the second. She then took her talents back to Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA), upping her record in the promotion to 3-0 with a decision over Amber Brown.

She replaces Iasmin Lucindo — who herself replaced Cynthia Calvillo — on one week’s notice.

Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann Betting Analysis:

By our reckoning, Knutsson had a not-inconsiderable chance of upsetting Lucindo, whom we consider one of the division’s top prospects. We don’t rate Mann anywhere near as highly; she’s tough and persistent but has severe technical shortcomings that Knutsson is well-equipped to exploit. Mann’s so hittable at a distance that Knutsson should have little issue piecing her up with kicks and blasting her with check hooks any time the former tries to step in.

Even if Mann gets to the clinch (her area of expertise), Knutsson’s control and strikes are much more polished. A Mann takedown wouldn’t guarantee her victory, either, because she struggles to hold down opponents. When the dust settles, expect Knutsson to take her apart at every distance for a one-sided decision win.