UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on August 10, 2023 4:10 pm by Erwin Noguera

Once again, the UFC goes into the heart of Las Vegas, Nevada, to give us an exciting Fight Night that will be taking place at their facilities, more exactly, on the UFC Apex.

This time, the headliner match of the event is a possible barnburner in the welterweight division, which will see Vicente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos go into the cage to see who comes out with his hand raised.

This event has quite an interesting main card, as the co-main event brings in a seasoned veteran in Cub Swanson, who comes in to fight Hakeem Dawodu; along with the clash between the light heavyweights, Khalil Roundtree and Chris Daukaus.

With a total of 13 clashes taking place in the apex this Saturday, we are expecting a ton of action to take place, especially with the bunch of up-and-coming talents who are showing up in the prelims.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos – Info

When:

Saturday, August 12th, at 4:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Vicente Luque -102 / Rafael dos Anjos -125

Cub Swanson +180 / Hakeem Dawodu -238

Khalil Rountree -200 / Chris Daukaus +153

Polyana Viana +155 / Iasmin Lucindo -200

Tafon Nchukwi -151 / AJ Dobson +188

Josh Fremd -357 / Jamie Pickett +258

Marcus McGhee -384 / JP Buys +272

Terrance McKinney -285 / Mike Breeden +216

Francis Marshall -169 / Isaac Dulgarian +132

Josh Parisian +170 / Martin Buday -222

Montserrat Ruiz +191 / Jaqueline Amorim -250

Da’Mon Blackshear -185 / Jose Johnson +144

Juliana Miller +125 / Luana Santos -161

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Why Bet on Vicente Luque?

Despite coming off two losses, it’s probably fair to argue that Vicente Luque has slightly more traction in the welterweight division right now. “The Silent Assassin” is ranked at No.10, and has finished the likes of Michael Chiesa, Tyron Woodley, and Belal Muhammad during his career.

The TUF 21 veteran has some holes in his game, namely his takedown defense and his durability, but against most foes, they don’t bother him too much.

That’s because he’s so offensively potent, possessing a killer instinct from every single area, and being one of the best finishers in MMA.

Why Bet on Rafael dos Anjos?

Rafael dos Anjos is just as dangerous as his opponent in all areas. The No.9-ranked lightweight moved back up to 170 pounds late last year after suffering a KO at the hands of Rafael Fiziev and immediately made a splash, taking down Bryan Barberena via submission.

Once considered a one-dimensional grappler, “RDA” now possesses a brutally efficient kickboxing game, and is adept at taking his foes down, too.

Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos Betting Analysis:

All-Brazilian fights in the UFC tend to be quite a rarity, but when they do happen, they usually produce fireworks. This one, in particular, is highly likely to go that way, because both of the men involved know no other way of fighting other than attack.

RDA has been blanketed for four of his last five defeats, being held down by Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Leon Edwards, and Michael Chiesa. Those four fighters are largely capable of doing that to anyone, though, and it’s unlikely that Luque will be capable of repeating that feat.

Instead, it seems likely that this one will come down to which fighter can impose their will from an offensive standpoint first, and in that sense, “RDA” should probably be favored. He arguably doesn’t hit quite as hard as Luque, but from a technical standpoint he’s the superior striker, and he’s also highly unlikely to get into danger on the ground with “The Silent Assassin”.

Add in the fact that Luque has looked a little brittle in recent fights – probably down to the crazy amount of damage he’s taken over the years – and the former lightweight kingpin is likely to take this.

UFC Fight Night: Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu

Why Bet on Cub Swanson?

The Cub Swanson who stands before you on Saturday is not the same man who fought in a UFC all-timer vs Doo-Hoo Choi or defeated the likes of Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, and Jeremy Stephens. That elite contender is gone, but some of his instincts remain.

Swanson’s game is about being fluid and fast. You can see those elements in his fights as he drops his hands, uses feints, and attacks with creative strikes.

Why Bet on Hakeem Dawodu?

“Mean Hakeem” has seen seven of his nine UFC fights go the distance, which suggests it’s wise to pick Dawodu by decision. The Canadian has an excellent chin and maintains a pretty good offensive output through his fights.

Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu Betting Analysis:

Swanson has pushed a harder pace recently with four straight fights (two wins, two losses) ending inside the distance.

It’ll be interesting to see how Dawodu responds to a blitz from the American man.

Swanson’s got a more violent upside, and we like his chances to win inside the distance or even by a damage-versus-strikes decision, so we are placing our bet right on him.

UFC Fight Night: Khalil Rountree vs. Chris Daukaus

Why Bet on Khalil Rountree?

Rountree Jr. has long been an advocate of pure Muay Thai training in MMA, having spent immense time in Thailand sharpening his world-class striking. Khalil is coming off of three straight victories, including two massive finishes via leg kick and body kick as well as a highly contested war with Dustin Jacoby.

Why Bet on Chris Daukaus?

After three straight KO losses at heavyweight, Chris Daukaus looks to revamp his career one division down. While the skill and technical boxing of the Philadelphian has always been there, he has largely been undersized and felt the power of the more natural heavyweights.

Khalil Rountree vs. Chris Daukaus Betting Analysis:

Rountree is an entertaining but frustrating fighter to watch. He has such immense physical gifts and a real aptitude for Muay Thai, it feels like he should be a top contender in such a weak division. Sometimes, he looks spectacular, and others, he underwhelms against mediocre opposition. Hopefully, his current win streak is evidence that he’s turned a corner.

As for Daukaus, he quickly climbed up the Heavyweight ladder on the strength of hand speed and power. Unfortunately, the Top 10 proved a difficult nut to crack, as his three trips into the cage opposite elite competition resulted in brutal knockout losses. Hopefully, his chin can hold up to heavy shots a bit better against smaller men as well.

This feels like a kickboxing match, and Rountree is the more durable man with equally huge power who also has a larger variety of offense weapons.

UFC Fight Night: Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Why Bet on Polyana Viana?

Viana is a finisher. She has some surprising power on her feet, but the jiu-jitsu black belt is best known for her submission prowess. That said, she has struggled with opponents who can take her down repeatedly and avoid her guard work.

Why Bet on Iasmin Lucindo?

At 21 years of age, Lucindo is a legitimate prospect at 115 lbs. She’s a Judo black belt with a solid submission game, but she also proved in her debut against Yazmin Jauregui that she can throw down if need be.

Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo Betting Analysis:

It would probably be in Viana’s best interest to keep this one standing. Lucinda throws wild and wide at a good clip, but she has yet to show the power of Viana.

Likely, if the two trade for extended periods, Viana is going to land the most impactful shots. I don’t know that Lucindo will give her that choice, however. She’s not a dominant wrestler necessarily, but her clinch trips are probably good enough to drag her down.

At that point, it becomes a question of whether or not Viana can lock up an armbar from the bottom before the time runs out, and we believe that she may be able to achieve the finish.

UFC Fight Night: Tafon Nchukwi vs. AJ Dobson

Why Bet on Tafon Nchukwi?

Tafon “Da Don” Nchukwi, 28, is 6-3 as a professional and 2-3 following a Dana White’s Contender Series win in 2020. The first two times Nchukwi fought a pure striker he pushed a solid pace, fought on his front foot well, and landed with respectable speed and power.

However, in his most recent two fights against primary strikers, Nchukwi fought with a significant decrease in volume, primarily as a counter striker off his back foot, and looked to land a single powershot rather than combinations. In both of those fights, “Da Don” was knocked out.

Why Bet on AJ Dobson?

AJ Dobson, 31, also has minimal professional experience with a 6-2 record. He’s also lost his last 2 fights, but both have come by decision. He has not won either of his UFC fights despite showing an ability to be well-rounded.

In his debut, he was out-struck and consistently out-grappled against a cardio-heavy and gritty fighter with quality experience. Then, in his next fight, Dobson again was out-struck but landed his offensive wrestling consistently. In both cases, his undoing was his unwillingness, or inability, to throw in volume.

Tafon Nchukwi vs. AJ Dobson Betting Analysis:

Dobson has struggled to find his footing inside the Octagon, losing his first two showings. He’s shown a reasonably rounded game, but in both defeats, he failed to take specialists out of their areas of expertise. Nchukwi, meanwhile, is a physical talent that remains rough around the edges. He’s also jumping between 205- and 185-pounds, which has limited his ability to build momentum.

Dobson prefers to take opponents down, but Nchukwi seems strong and sturdy enough to keep this one on the feet. In that case, is his marginal technique advantage enough to outwit Nchukwi’s significant edges in athleticism and volume? Probably not.

It doesn’t hurt that Nchukwi has more experience against stiffer competition as well.

UFC Fight Night: Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett

Why Bet on Josh Fremd?

Fremd was soundly outwrestled in his first pair of fights but did rebound well last time, picking up a pair of his takedowns en route to a guillotine finish.

Josh, who had failed to secure a win in his two UFC outings, turned things around and defeated Dumas with a guillotine choke in the second round. With the victory, Fremd extended his MMA record to 10-4.

He’s got decent kickboxing and has finished four opponents via knockout.

Why Bet on Jamie Pickett?

Pickett has good physical skills but hasn’t consistently managed to turn them into victories. He’s a definite Jack of all trades, master of none. In his last fight, he faced Bo Nickal and lost via submission in the first round.

But “The Nightwolf” later claimed that it was an illegal knee to the groin from Nickal that left him compromised and resulted in the loss.

Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett Betting Analysis:

On the feet, Fremd seems to hold an advantage. He hits a bit harder and just seems more willing to initiate exchanges and find big shots. The question then becomes if Pickett can replicate the success of Anthony Hernandez or Tresean Gore by throwing him to the floor and dominating from there.

The second half sounds unlikely. We could see Pickett scoring a takedown or two, but he’s going to have a difficult time holding Fremd down, and takedowns without much control are an exhausting way to fight.

So long as Fremd remains intent on working back to his feet, he should be able to edge exchanges and pick up the decision.

UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. JP Buys

Why Bet on Marcus McGhee?

Marcus McGhee (7-1) suffered his first professional loss in his fifth fight but swiftly bounced back with a pair of finishes. He then stepped up on three days’ notice to battle Journey Newsom in his UFC debut, clubbing and subbing the Octagon veteran in the second round to claim “Performance of the Night.”

Six of his seven professional stoppages have come via knockout.

Why Bet on JP Buys?

The triumphant return of J.P. Buys (9-5) — about 2.5 years after imploding against Joby Sanchez on Contender Series — saw him finish Jacob Silva to earn a UFC contract. He’s still chasing his first Octagon victory, having dropped three straight and suffered two stoppage losses along the way.

Marcus McGhee vs. JP Buys Betting Analysis:

What’s so frustrating about Buys is that he has the skills to be a genuine threat. His chain wrestling is downright beautiful, but he just seems to mentally disintegrate at the first sign of adversity.

Even if he’s physically durable enough to survive a beating from the gigantic Montel Jackson, he’s shown no ability to turn a bad situation around.

It’s not the best issue to have against a truly vicious body puncher, especially one who’s bigger than him and has shown off stout takedown defense. In short, McGhee beats him into submission before the halfway point.

UFC Fight Night: Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden

Why Bet on Terrance McKinney?

Terrance McKinney (13-6) smashed his way to a 3-1 UFC start, all three wins by first-round stoppage. He now finds himself amid a winless (0-2) slump, suffering a flying knee knockout from Ismael Bonfim and a submission defeat to Nazim Sadykhov.

“T. Wrecks” replaces Lando Vannata on little more than one week’s notice for a sub-month turnaround.

Why Bet on Mike Breeden?

Despite a late surge, Mike Breeden (10-5) failed to overcome Anthony Romero in Contender Series. After picking up a pair of wins in the Fighting Alliance Championship (FAC), he got his shot in the Octagon proper, where he was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez and took apart by Natan Levy.

He fights for the first time in 16 months.

Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden Betting Analysis:

This is a more dangerous fight for McKinney than it might look on paper. Breeden has holes in his game you could drive a truck through, but good takedown defense and a tendency to improve as fights go on present issues for a frontrunner like McKinney.

That said, Breeden starts so darn slow that he likely won’t last long enough to turn things around.

We’ve seen him sleepwalk through two straight rounds before finally switching on, which you can’t afford against an explosive finisher. In the end, McKinney bulldozes him in the first few minutes.

UFC Fight Night: Francis Marshall vs. Isaac Dulgarian

Why Bet on Francis Marshall?

Francis Marshall (7-1) followed his impressive Contender Series victory with an even more eye-catching knockout of Marcelo Rojo in his Octagon debut. Then came William Gomis, who out-struck Marshall for two rounds and turned aside a late comeback attempt to hand him his first defeat.

Why Bet on Isaac Dulgarian?

Glory MMA’s Dulgarian has yet to go past 3:10 as an amateur or a professional. His last appearance came in front of Dana White on Lookin’ for a Fight, where he stopped TeeJay Britton in 73 seconds to claim FAC’s Featherweight title.

This marks his first fight in 18 months, as he withdrew from a January debut against Dan Argueta.

Francis Marshall vs. Isaac Dulgarian Betting Analysis:

Dulgarian has a lot to prove here. Though he looked like the good against limited opposition and has a strong wrestling pedigree, it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll hold up if the quick finish isn’t there.

Marshall is well-rounded and experienced in deep waters, and while he did struggle with Gomis, he won’t have to hunt down the more direct Dulgarian.

I’m siding with Marshall by dint of being more proven. Dulgarian could theoretically overwhelm him as he does so many others, but it seems likelier that Francis weathers the blitz and steadily breaks him down for a late finish.

UFC Fight Night: Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday

Why Bet on Josh Parisian?

Josh Parisian (15-6) capped off a six-fight knockout streak by finishing Chad Johnson in his second Contender Series appearance. He’s since alternated losses and wins in the world’s largest fight promotion, including a decision defeat to Jamal Pogues in Feb. 2023.

His professional finishes are split 11:2 between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Martin Buday?

Martin Buday (12-1) — whose sole professional loss came to Juan Espino in 2013 — extended his win streak to eight with a Contender Series knockout of Lorenzo Hood.

He currently sits at 3-0 in the Octagon, racking up controversial decisions over Chris Barnett, Lukasz Brzeski, and Jake Collier.

UFC Fight Night: Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday Betting Analysis:

Weird as this is to say about two men with such different UFC records, we see this as a battle of underachievers. Parisian really should be 1-4 in the Octagon and Buday failed to impress against Brzeski and Collier.

Between them, though, we still favor Buday. That’s because Parisian’s been taken down 11 times in his last three fights and was getting smashed by Alan Baudot before the Frenchman’s predictable collapse.

While Parisian is by far the more nimble of the two, his fight with Pogues suggests that Buday won’t have trouble finding his preferred clinch.

In the end, Buday out-muscles Parisian to win an ugly decision.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Ruiz vs. Jaqueline Amorim

Why Bet on Montserrat Ruiz?

The wrestling attack of Montserrat Ruiz (10-2) carried her past Janaisa Morandin in her second Invicta bout, then past Cheyanne Vlismas in her UFC debut. “Conejo” wasn’t quite as successful against Amanda Lemos, who stopped her with strikes 35 seconds into their fight.

Saturday’s bout ends a two-year layoff.

Why Bet on Jaqueline Amorim?

Jaqueline Amorim (6-1) capped off her four-fight stint in Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) by tapping Ashley Nichols in her inaugural Strawweight title defense. She started strong in her UFC debut against Sam Hughes, but severe cardio issues allowed “Sampage” to claim the last two rounds and a unanimous decision.

All of her professional wins have come in the first round, five of them in the first two minutes.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Ruiz vs. Jaqueline Amorim Betting Analysis:

If Amorim has fixed her cardio, it’s hard to imagine her losing here. Ruiz is one of the most one-dimensional fighters in modern UFC history and her only move — the head-and-arm throw — gives Amorim free access to her back.

On paper, this shouldn’t take more than a couple of minutes.

Ruiz is physically strong and can do some damage on the feet, so she has the skills to turn things around if she survives long enough for Amorim’s gas tank to empty. More likely, though, she gets too eager to chase the clinch and allows Amorim to slither into back mount before choking her out.

UFC Fight Night: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Jose Johnson

Why Bet on Da’Mon Blackshear?

Blackshear (13-5-1) struggled his way to an 1-1-1 UFC start, drawing with Youssef Zalal in his debut before falling short against top prospect Farid Basharat.

He entered his third bout against Luan Lacerda as an underdog, only to pound the Brazilian out late in the second.

He’s submitted eight professional opponents and knocked out two others.

Why Bet on Jose Johnson?

Johnson (15-7) failed to overcome Ronnie Lawrence’s wrestling on the Contender Series, then suffered a knockout loss to Mana Martinez two fights later. After a pair of impressive finishes in Fury FC, he returned to DWCS to edge out undefeated Jack Cartwright and claim a UFC contract.

He steps in for Brady Hiestand on four days’ notice for his third attempt at a UFC debut.

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Jose Johnson Betting Analysis:

“Lobo Solitario” has several significant flaws that his strengths can often compensate for, but this isn’t one of those cases. After giving up 12 takedowns to Lawrence, he surrendered another six to Jack Cartwright, and unlike Cartwright, Blackshear both works from the top and is an actual threat on the feet.

Blackshear just seems to have fewer holes in his game than Johnson. The latter will need to either clip him with an out-of-nowhere punch or submit him off of his back. That is hypothetically feasible, but Da’Mon’s submission defense held up well enough against Lacerda that he should be fine. Blackshear grinds his way to his first UFC win.

UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos

Why Bet on Juliana Miller?

Juliana Miller (3-2) ran the table on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 30, ultimately pounding out Team Nunes’ last hope in Brogan Walker to win the tournament. Her UFC debut pitted her against Veronica Hardy, who defied three years of cage rust to author a massive upset.

Why Bet on Luana Santos?

Santos followed her undefeated amateur career with a perfect (3-0) professional start, only to fall short against no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, Jena Bishop. Undeterred, she returned to form with a pair of dominant wins, including a club-and-sub of unbeaten Bartira Rodrigues in March 2023.

Her three professional submission wins include two by scarf hold armlock.

Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos Betting Analysis:

Things went poorly for Santos the last time she faced a high-level jiu-jitsu player, but this looks a lot more like revenge than repeat. Miller’s wrestling proved underdeveloped against Hardy, so the only way she gets on top is if Santos, a decorated Judoka, commits the unforced errors she did against Bishop.

Based on Santos’ recent bouts, she’s much more likely to score double legs of her own, and that’s if she doesn’t just batter Miller on the feet. The one thing she hasn’t proven is her ability to maintain a hard pace for three rounds, but with the ability to take her foe down as needed to slow the pace, that doesn’t look like an issue.