UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on February 22, 2024 1:38 pm by Erwin Noguera

We have just passed an exciting numbered event this last weekend, but the current event is going to be a huge party for an entire country. We are going to take the trip to Mexico City Arena, to witness a staked UFC Fight Night with a ton of Latin American talent.

We have 16 Latin American fighters split between 13 fights, and 10 of them waved the Mexican flag since birth, which means that the crowd will be going wild all event long.

The main event has the Former Flyweight Mexican champion, Brandon Moreno, facing against Brandon Royval, in a rematch from a fight they had back in November 2020.

Our co-main event sees a rematch between former featherweight interim Mexican champion, Yair Rodriguez and former title challenger, Brian Ortega, in what could easily be a title eliminator clash.

We also have the 3rd matchup between Edgar Chairez and Daniel Lacerda, whose first match ended with a polarizing no-contest, and the second was canceled during weight-ins as Lacerda had an infection that didn’t let him make it to the cage.

13 fights on the card, with 6 main event fights and 7 prelims, for us to enjoy in a location known for having a huge altitude difference and that could drain any unprepared fighter.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, February 24th, at 7:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds

Brandon Moreno 1.35 / 3.245 Brandon Royval

Yair Rodriguez / 1.66 Brian Ortega

Daniel Zellhuber 1.394 / 305 Francisco Prado

Raul Rosas Jr. 1.434 / 2.875 Ricky Turcios

Yazmin Jauregui 1.196 / 4.805 Sam Hughes

Manuel Torres 1.606 / 2.372 Chris Duncan

Cristian Quiñonez 2.448 / Raoni Barcelos 1.544

Jesus Aguilar 2.273 / Mateus Mendonça 1.624

Edgar Cháirez 1.283 / Daniel Lacerda 3.635

Claudio Puelles 2.652/ Fares Ziam 1.473

Luis Rodríguez 2.865 / Denys Bondar 1.906

Victor Altamirano 3.725/ Felipe dos Santos 1.332

Muhammad Naimov 1.217 / Erik Silva 4.3

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval

Why Bet on Brandon Moreno?

Brandon Moreno hasn’t won a fight that has hit the cards since the UFC shut down for the pandemic. His increased pressure has made it much easier for him to dole out the damage to his opponents.

Why Bet on Brandon Royval?

Royval is hardly a guy who walks away from that kind of fight. He wants to be in a brawl and isn’t afraid to take one to give one. Against a guy like Pantoja, who is willing to spend large chunks of the fight in top control, that may be sustainable. However, against someone out there getting doctor’s stoppages, it likely won’t hold up.

Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Final Betting Analysis:

Moreno hasn’t been finished since he was 22 years old in 2016, and we only see that as the path to victory for Royval.

Royval has a great pace, but Moreno can keep up with him. The former can leave himself open on the feet and the latter has the striking to take advantage.

In Royval’s last fight, Pantoja had the advantage on the ground, and maybe Moreno sees that as a place to take advantage.

UFC Fight Night: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega

Why Bet on Yair Rodriguez?

Yair Rodriguez is a former interim champ whose last fight was against Alex Volkanovski in the UFC Featherweight title fight. He lost by a TKO in the third round.

Volk has since lost the championship belt to Ilia Topuria but will probably get another shot at the title in the future. If not, we could see Topuria get another opponent in his first title defense.

Why Bet on Brian Ortega?

Brian Ortega is hungry for success as he’s been without a win since 2020 when he defeated The Korean Zombie by decision. He’s won only one of his last four fights. However, if we’re going to be fair to the guy, each of those three losses happened against real elite opponents.

Two of those happened in title fights (vs. Max Holloway and Volkanovski). The third happened against Rodriguez after Ortega injured his shoulder.

Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega Final Betting Analysis:

Yair Rodriguez is one of the best fists users in the division, which explains why he’s favored to win the UFC Mexico co-main event. However, Brian Ortega has been plotting revenge for literally years. He’s been preparing meticulously for this fight, which is why we suspect he will stage an upset.

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado

Why Bet on Daniel Zellhuber?

Mexico’s Zellhuber is a physical talent with a good fundamental skill set. Standing 6’1” with a 77” reach, this is a massive Lightweight. In addition to pure size, he can take a shot well and usually return the favor with more force, which is a great way to overcome any technical deficit.

Why Bet on Francisco Prado?

On the other side of the equation, Argentina’s Prado will (understandably) face a severe disadvantage in height and reach. There’s a lot of upside on Prado, however, who brings the aggression and fierceness one would expect of a young veteran. On the whole, he’s an excellent finisher with the toughness to learn on the job in the UFC.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado Final Betting Analysis:

On paper, both men are fairly well-rounded prospects with some defensive issues who win mostly via physicality, aggression, and grit. That should be a recipe for a barnburner, yet Zellhuber’s massive height and reach feel like such an obvious difference-maker.

It takes a serious gulf in technical ability to overcome eight inches of reach, and we’re not sure Prado has any such advantage. Most likely, he manages to score some shots of his own but ends up frustrated by distance much of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

Why Bet on Raul Rosas Jr.?

Rosas Jr. made headlines by debuting inside the Octagon at a ridiculously young age and saying silly things to the media about fighting for the belt right away. The Christian Rodriguez loss was a bit of a reality check, but all the same, Rosas Jr. is a talented grappler with developing knockout power.

Why Bet on Ricky Turcios?

Turcios is an Ultimate Fighter (TUF) champion, a veteran with a good deal of experience who thrives in wild fights. Cardio is the name of Turcios’ game, as he’s happy to push a high pace wherever the fight goes, and he tends to do his best work in the latter half of grueling battles.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios Final Betting Analysis:

At the moment, the strengths and weaknesses of Rosas Jr. are well-known. Barring further development — obviously very possible at his age — “El Niño Problema” is a major handful early in fights. He storms out of the gate and sprints towards the finish, usually looking to take the back and wrangle the neck.

It’s not likely to be that easy against Turcios, a jiu-jitsu black belt who’s been stopped just once in 15 fights. He is an excellent scrambler, the type of difficult-to-hold-down athlete who can frustrate wrestlers accustomed to dominating from top positions.

The question here is this: could Rosas Jr. finish Turcios within five minutes? If not, he’s going to have a lot of trouble down the stretch.

Turcios loses the first frame, but that volume and activity edge takes over somewhere in the middle of the fight.

UFC Fight Night: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes

Why Bet on Yazmin Jauregui?

Jauregui debuted with a bit of hype behind her, having won the “Last Latina Standing” three-fight, one-night tournament for Combate Global to score her spot on the roster. A quality kickboxer, Jauregui has a high-volume and aggressive style of striking that has produced seven wins via knockout.

Why Bet on Sam Hughes?

Hughes, conversely, is something of a generalist. A solid natural athlete, she began her UFC run with a 0-3 start but has since won three of her last four.

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes Final Betting Analysis:

Hughes has two potential paths to victory against the better fists user: catch her with a big shot or work the wrestling. Hughes has some physicality, but she’s not the heaviest hitter on the feet, and trading power shots with Jauregui seems more likely to end with her hitting the floor.

That leaves takedowns as the more viable option. Unfortunately, Jauregui also has defended every takedown that’s come her way inside the Octagon, and Hughes isn’t an overwhelmingly strong chain wrestler.

Most likely, Jauregui sprawls and brawls her way to a decision win or late finish.

UFC Fight Night: Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan

Why Bet on Manuel Torres?

“El Loco” is aggressive. He’s finished 13 of his 14 victories before the final bell, and both of his UFC performances have ended inside a round via knockout. Strong and confident, Torres is happy to take a shot if necessary, provided he’s able to answer with three of his own.

Why Bet on Chris Duncan?

Duncan is a little more well-rounded in his approach. Mixing takedowns and combination punching up has been his key to success inside the Octagon, but he does have seven wins via stoppage himself.

Final Betting Analysis: Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan

Torres is the nastier puncher, whereas Duncan is more likely to find success with his top control. Though both certainly still have skills in the other areas of fighting, the general feeling here is that this will end up a fists user vs. wrestler style of fight.

Duncan has the tools to hide his takedowns, but we are not sure he’s able to get much done on the ground. He’s not a submission seeker, and that’s historically what’s given Torres pause. More to the point, Torres hasn’t lost a fight in nearly five years, and he’s been very difficult to take and hold down recently.

If it becomes a striking match — and it seems like it will — Torres should win it.

UFC Fight Night: Cristian Quiñonez vs. Raoni Barcelos

Why Bet on Cristian Quiñonez?

After securing a UFC contract by beating Xiao Long in the Contender Series, Christian Quinonez announced his UFC arrival with a late-notice knockout of Khalid Taha. Then came veteran Kyung Ho Kang, who took less than a half-round to hand “Problema” his second submission loss.

Ten of his 13 professional finishes have come via knockout.

Why Bet on Raoni Barcelos?

Five consecutive victories — including a submission of Chris Gutierrez and a decision over Said Nurmagomedov — put Raoni Barcelos on the brink of Bantamweight contention. He’s just 1-4 since, most recently dropping a decision to Kyler Phillips in Aug. 2023.

Cristian Quiñonez vs. Raoni Barcelos Final Betting Analysis:

Sadly, Barcelos entered UFC too late to fit a title run into his prime, but while he’s no longer elite, we believe he’s not done yet. There’s no shame in losing to dynamos like Umar Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips, and though his boxing seems to have lost its edge, his ground game remains a threat.

That’s more than a slight issue for Quiñonez, who found himself thoroughly out-classed by Kang on the mat. Even if his sprawl does hold up, Barcelos still has enough pop in his right hand to sit down Quiñonez, so he’ll end up in Barcelos’ world one way or the other. In the end, technique beats youth as Barcelos leans on his Brazilian jiu-jitsu to hand Quiñonez his third submission loss

UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Mateus Mendonça

Why Bet on Jesus Aguilar?

A third-round Contender Series submission of Erisson Ferreira earned Jesus Aguilar (9-2) his eighth consecutive victory and punched his UFC ticket.

Though he fell to top prospect, Tatsuro Taira, in his UFC debut, he bounced back in a big way by smoking Shannon Ross with one punch just 17 seconds into their bout.

Guillotine chokes account for five of his six pro submissions.

Why Bet on Mateus Mendonça?

Mateus Mendonça (10-2) returned from nearly two years on the sidelines to smash Ashiek Ajim on Contender Series and walk away with a UFC contract. He’s still chasing his first UFC victory, dropping a decision to Javid Basharat in his Octagon debut before succumbing to Nate Maness’ ground-and-pound nine months later.

Jesus Aguilar vs. Mateus Mendonça Final Betting Analysis:

Crushing one of UFC’s all-time worst Flyweights isn’t enough to convince us that Aguilar is contender material. That’s because he’s still a middling wrestler with little to offer on the feet besides an overhand right. If Mendonça paces himself and utilizes that cartoonish reach advantage, it’ll be smooth sailing.

That’s a load-bearing “if,” of course. He showed inexplicably poor fight IQ against Maness, so while the only way he conceivably loses this is by willingly sticking his head into Aguilar’s guillotine, we can very easily still see that happening. Still, there’s too much going his way in this matchup for us to pick against him, so expect him to piece Aguilar up en route to a comfortable decision.

UFC Fight Night: Edgar Cháirez vs. Daniel Lacerda

Why Bet on Edgar Cháirez?

Edgar Chairez (10-5) put an unsuccessful Contender Series bid behind him to score a pair of submission wins and the Fury FC Flyweight title. A short-notice UFC debut saw him fall to Tatsuro Taira, after which a questionable stoppage against Lacerda resulted in a “No Contest.”

Why Bet on Daniel Lacerda?

Lacerda entered the Octagon at 11-1, the lone loss a freak shoulder injury against Shooto Brasil standout, Edilceu Alves. Five subsequent UFC appearances have produced four stoppage losses, one “Fight of the Night,” two last-minute cancelations, and the aforementioned “No Contest.”

All 11 of his wins have come inside the distance, 10 of them in the first round.

Edgar Cháirez vs. Daniel Lacerda Final Betting Analysis:

Chairez’s lack of output gives the ultra-dynamic Lacerda a chance, but I can’t overlook Lacerda’s penchant for implosion. There’s no reason to think Lacerda won’t bumble into one of Chairez’s chokes again or gas himself out and get cold-cocked by one of Chairez’s haymakers.

Considering Lacerda’s talent and strong camp, there’s still a chance success could happen. It’s just impossible to have faith in him anymore. When the dust finally settles, Chairez finds his neck for a definitive finish.

UFC Fight Night: Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam

Why Bet on Claudio Puelles?

Claudio Puelles went from being The TUF: Latin America 3’s runner up, to being a lightweight contender in five straight victories, which included three kneebars, producing two “Performances of the Night” bonuses. Dan Hooker was too difficult of an opponent to crack, however, finishing “Prince of Peru” with a body kick late in the second round.

This marks his first fight in 15 months.

Why Bet on Fares Ziam?

The rough UFC start for Fares Ziam saw losses to Don Madge and Terrance McKinney sandwich narrow decision victories over Jamie Mullarkey and Luigi Vendramini. He has since found his form with a dominant upset of Michal Figlak and another nail-biter against Jai Herbert 10 months later.

Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam Final Betting Analysis:

The red flag in Puelles’ loss to Hooker wasn’t how single-minded he’d become in pursuit of the kneebar but how quickly he fell apart when Plan A proved unworkable. He made a name for himself by fighting through adversity, from outwrestling Jordan Leavitt after dropping the first round to his dramatic comeback finish against Felipe Silva.

He’ll need that level of resilience here; Ziam lacks Hooker’s finishing ability or general bloodlust, but his length, striking skills, and takedown defense present similar issues.

If Puelles commits to a more traditional wrestling approach and fires on all cylinders, he’s got a shot here, as Ziam is still prone to bouts of self-destructive passivity. Based on that Hooker performance, though, odds are that Ziam out-ranges Puelles, lands potshots, and steers clear of Puelles’ increasingly desperate kneebar attempts to secure a decision.

UFC Fight Night: Luis Rodríguez vs. Denys Bondar

Why Bet on Luis Rodríguez?

Luis Rodriguez, then just 21, came up short in a 2020 Contender Series bid against Jerome Rivera. It was a quick fight in iKon that put the so-called “Lazy Boy” back on track in the win column, after which he rattled off four straight wins in Mexico’s Lux Fight League.

Why Bet on Denys Bondar?

Denys Bondar (16-5) saw three separate UFC debuts fall through before finally entering the cage in 2022, only to immediately leave it after Malcolm Gordon snapped his arm in 82 seconds.

This produced another 16-month stint on the sidelines before his return against Carlos Hernandez, who clubbed “Psycho” unconscious with elbows but had to settle for a technical decision after a called head butt.

He is a fighter who has stopped all his previous opponents.

Luis Rodríguez vs. Denys Bondar Final Betting Analysis:

Bondar’s high-pressure style and good top game haven’t transitioned as well as would have been expected from the regional scene to the UFC. He, however, should be favored over a “Lazy Boy” who has atrocious defense and loads up too much on his punches, allowing worse fighters than Bondar to tag him with power shots.

Rodriguez’s takedown defense may be difficult for Bondar to overcome, but in reality, “Psycho” just needs to march forward and keep swinging. Rodriguez is admittedly still young enough to have turned the corner in the last nine months, but if the gears haven’t meshed after 18 professional fights, we doubt this one will do the trick. In the end, volume and constant aggression carry Bondar to victory in an ugly slugfest.

UFC Fight Night: Victor Altamirano vs. Felipe dos Santos

Why Bet on Victor Altamirano?

Victor Aldamirano got his UFC debut after a controversial Contender Series win over Carlos Candelario. His opponent for the UFC debut was a tough Carlos Hernandez, who managed to snap Altamirano’s four-fight winning streak in what could’ve been considered a similarly questionable fashion. He still managed to get back-to-back wins over both Daniel Lacerda and Vinicius Salvador to put himself back on track, only for Tim Elliot to derail him in June 2023.

Why Bet on Felipe dos Santos?

Felipe dos Santos had two Contender series clashes falling through after Edgar Chairez was signed straight into the UFC, and Luciano Pereira missed weight in their scheduled clash. “Lipe Detona” got instead called on short notice to go against Manel Kape, which resulted in a unanimous decision loss and a “Fight of the Night” Bonus.

He has a 3:2 split between Submission finishes and KOs.

Victor Altamirano vs. Felipe dos Santos Final Betting Analysis:

Altamirano has a wacky striking method, and that seems like he is just begging for a shin to test his head’s resilience. His wrestling is also a hit-or-miss against high-level opposition.

Dos Santos is not going to be a problem when it comes to takedown, so handling the Brazilian’s freakish volume will be the actual problem. Having to deal with 100 significant strikes per round will be kind of difficult for a fighter whose defensive strategy is leaning to one side and shuffling backward.

Altamirano’s top game isn’t fearsome, and Dos Santos is pretty good at getting back to his feet, so Altamirano will need more than a few spots of top control to win this clash. In short, “Lipe Detona” out-works Altamirano to enter UFC’s win column.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Erik Silva

Why Bet on Muhammad Naimov?

Muhammad Naimov managed to bounce back from losing two in a row bounced by winning three fights, one after the other, and then managed to stop Jamie Mullarkey on pretty short notice, which became one of 2023’s most surprising upsets. He may have been the underdog in the clash against Nathaniel Wood, but his takedowns and polarizing tactics allowed him to earn a victory in that clash.

Why Bet on Erik Silva?

Erik Silva currently boasts a record of 9-2 and only needed 92 seconds to break Anvar Boynazarov down and get himself a spot in the Octagon. The “King” made his debut four months later and faced T.J. Brown, who spoiled his party by breaking his seven-fight win streak with an arm-triangle choke in the third round.

This will be his first fight in 14 months.

Muhammad Naimov vs. Erik Silva Final Betting Analysis:

Naimov’s improvements on the cage have been a pleasant surprise over time. Being able to stop Mullarkey and grapple wood are exciting results after the loss against Olivier Murad. Naimov’s current self is way more prepared to handle Silva’s Style.

Brown managed to prove Silva’s lack of cardio and technical depth, which he’d have needed to keep his wrestling assault going after his gas tank was compromised. Naimov will be able to use his takedown defense and prevent Silva from grappling his way to victory, allowing him to brawl his way to secure his third UFC victory.