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UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on May 11, 2024 12:28 pm by Erwin Noguera

After an exciting event 2 weeks ago at UFC 300, and a little break in between, we get back into action with a pretty nice fight night taking place in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

This card ended up with 13 fights in it, as there were 5 match-ups canceled along the way, including the original main event, which would see Matheus Nicolau going against Manel Kape, but now, we get a clash between Nicolau and Alex Perez.

Besides the headliner, the co-main event gets Ryan Spann facing Bogdan Guskov in the light heavyweight division, and we also get Karine Silva and Ariane Lipski going against each other to see who can go out of the cage with their 18th victory.

We are getting a fight card with 7 prelims and 6 main event clashes for all fans to know some new names on the roster.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info


Saturday, April 27th, at 4:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds

Matheus Nicolau 1.55 / Alex Perez 2.487

Ryan Spann 1.51 / Bogdan Guskov 2.593

Karine Silva 1.66 / Ariane Lipski 2.247

Jhonata Diniz 1.39 / Austen Lane 3.045

Jonathan Pearce 1.63 / David Onama 2.305

Tim Means 3.335 / Uros Medic 1.34

Rani Yahya 4.43 / Victor Henry 1.205

Austin Hubbard 2.276 / Michal Figlak 1.63

Don’Tale Mayes 1.97 / Caio Machado 1.81 

Ketlen Souza 1.29 / Marnic Mann 3.56

James Llontop 1.278 vs. Chris Padilla 3.725

Ivana Petrović 1.207 / Na Liang 4.33

Maheshate Hayisaer 1.454 / Gabriel Benítez 2.685

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez

Why Bet on Matheus Nicolau?

Nicolau was one big asterisk at this point in his career, because he returned from a knockout loss to Brandon Royval, and it’s wise to generally be cautious when fighters return from those kinds of wobbles and face hard hitters. Alex Perez is not much of a heavy hitter though, so we expect it to play less of a factor in this one.

Nicolau also has very good takedown defense, preventing 91% of the attempts he’s faced. He also has pretty good BJJ, so it’s expected that he won’t simply allow opponents to do much with any top control that they do muster, which was the case when Elliott took him down.

Why Bet on Alex Perez?

Pure recklessness and insanity from the UFC matchmakers to trust Alex Perez with a headline spot on a card. We know it’s an Apex card, and that Perez is coming on short notice, and he looked good enough against Mokaev…but the guy will forever be seen as a pull-out merchant.

Alex has got great wrestling, both offensively and defensively, and his striking isn’t too bad either. We think it’s easy and fair to say he should be the inferior fighter to Nicolau on the feet here. 

Also, as the loss to Figgy kind of showed, he’s not the greatest grappler when he gets things to the mat.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez Final Betting Analysis:

Nicolau has shown he can be powerful on the feet (landing three knockdowns in his last two wins), and he’s also got pretty high-level BJJ we haven’t seen in some time, but Perez being tapped by Figueiredo and Pantoja shows it’s a path to victory for Nicolau.

If we add the short notice preparation for the fight, then Nicolau is the sure betting pick.

UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov 

Why Bet on Ryan Spann?

Spann is the much more diverse fighter in this match, with his submission game and potential to mix in sloppy grappling, so you have to favor him if this fight ends up becoming a bit more methodical than we’d expect. 

Spann is also the more experienced guy. However, his durability is being testedat the moment, with three of his last four fights ending via a stoppage loss (where he was hurt with strikes on multiple occasions). 

He also showed pretty terrible fight IQ in the Krylov loss. In short, he’s not the kind of guy you can trust as a clear favorite. Never forget that he barely scraped by Sam Alvey in a 15-minute fight.

Why Bet on Bogdan Guskov?

We enjoyed fading Guskov with a vastly more talented version of himself in Volkan Oezdemir, but he has managed to redeem himself by taking out the trash (Zac Pauga) in his most recent fight and looking pretty decent in doing so.

Guskov has won and lost via round 1 chaos in both UFC bouts. There is, therefore, no need to take this one super seriously, because it won’t take long before both men start frothing at the mouth and ask Jesus to take the wheel as they trade hooks.

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov Final Betting Analysis:

This one is going to be chaotic and turn into a coin toss real quick. Yes, Spann can grapple, but you haven’t tried to trust him with your money before if you think he’s going to go out there and follow the path of least resistance. 

He is likely going to give Guskov his path to victory on a platter though…which is why we like the latter in this clash.

UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski 

Why Bet on Karine Silva?

Karine Silva is one of those rare WMMA finishers. I’ve had a lot of issues with Silva’s overall capabilities because she appears to have lost more minutes than she’s won in the UFC/DWCS so far. 

We were convinced we had found the fade when she was scheduled to face Maryna Moroz, but Silva put in her best performance to date and suddenly showed good minute-winning capabilities. 

Why Bet on Ariane Lipski?

It’s pretty remarkable how much/quickly Ariane Lipski has turned around her UFC career.

She then started her UFC career 2-6, losing to Molly McCann, Joanne Wood, Antonina Shevchenko, and Montana De La Rosa (by finish in the latter two as well). 

The biggest issue was her takedown defense and general anti-grappling…but she suddenly just massively improved that, as if overnight, when she faced Mandy Bohm. 

Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski Final Betting Analysis:

This is a fight between one woman who usually looks good but has the potential to underperform, and another woman who usually looks bad, but has the potential to massively overperform. No matter how you spin it, this one is a bit of a coin toss, but we are taking Karine Silva this time.

UFC Fight Night: Jhonata Diniz vs. Austen Lane 

Why Bet on Jhonata Diniz?

 Jhonata Diniz makes his UFC debut, having won every prior MMA bout in the opening round. This heavily implies he’s going to look bad if you can extend him past five minutes.

Not guaranteed, but likely. We do realize he also has a kickboxing background against some respectable names, but that doesn’t always mean as much as they want us to think it does. 

Why Bet on Austen Lane?

Austen Lane is that guy who spent way too long in a scheduled bout with Justin Tafa, which he lost pretty convincingly when he got KO’d in 80 seconds. Before that, his best win is Juan Adams.

Jhonata Diniz vs. Austen Lane Final Betting Analysis:

Diniz striking in the DWCS is likable by HW standards. He has a nice mixture of power and volume, which is surprisingly rare these days! Having said all that, it’s pretty obvioushe’s going to be the better striker, it’s all about how he handles MMA that makes this one interesting. 

So there’s a whole lot of questions and very few answers. This fight is hard to pick on, but if you had to get involved you would probably want to look for Diniz in Round 1.

UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama 

Why Bet on Jonathan Pearce?

We’re still not over that Jonathan Pearce loss to Joanderson Brito. He was coasting against him! He was getting the trash talk in…and then he got sloppy and got submitted. Very disappointing results for him.

Why Bet on David Onama?

This fight revolves around Onama’s ability to either keep the fight standing or find a way to cause damage in between the takedown attempts.

To do that, Onama’s going to need sharp cardio, which hasn’t always been his strongest skill set. His cardio is likely to struggle in this one if he doesn’t find an early finish.

Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama Final Betting Analysis:

We’ve not seen enough from David Onama to suggest to me that he’s going to have any real answer for the grappling takedown threat of Jonathan Pearce. 

JP has great cardio soshould be able to rinse and repeat the takedowns, but we think he can find significant top control time via back control when Onama inevitably turns on the get-up.

UFC Fight Night: Tim Means vs. Uros Medic 

Why Bet on Tim Means?

Tim Means is in a bit of a tricky spot in his career. He’s gritty, he’s dangerous in multiple ways, and he’s also technically quite sound everywhere…but he’s also shopworn and 40 years old.

He wound back the clock in his last fight, beating a pretty one-dimensional striker in Andre Fialho, and before that, his losses were to Alex Morono, Max Griffin, and Kevin Holland. 

You can see the caliber difference there, and the argument extends further when you consider that Means’ most recent respectable win came against Nicholas Dalby in 2021.

Why Bet on Uros Medic?

Uros Medic is a pretty dangerous and respectable striker on the feet. He’s usually big for the division (smaller than Means in height and reach, but not as skinny), which translates to power in his very diverse striking arsenal.

We did see Medic get out grappled in his last fight, but his initial get-ups were pretty good, and Orolbai. Considering Means has only ever landed a maximum of three takedowns in a fight, we don’t see The Dirty Bird getting things done via large amounts of top control.

Tim Means vs. Uros Medic Final Betting Analysis:

On the feet, we think Means is probably technical enough to keep this one very close when they’re just touching each other…but Medic has the potential to spin this fight in his favor if he connects clean. 

At the end of the day, Medic struggled with the striking of Matthew Semelsberger but erased all that by knocking him out.

Either way, we don’t think Means is outmatched anywhere other than power, durability, and general athleticism.Whilstthat’s enough for Medic to be graded as the favorite, a win for Means certainly feels plausible…so we believe the line is a bit wide here. 

With all that being said, we feel like this is going to be one of those fights where Means looks much more competitive minute-by-minute, but ultimately gets blasted and no one remembers anything other than him getting twatted.

UFC Fight Night: Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry 

Why Bet on Rani Yahya?

Rani Yahya is a pure BJJ guy, but he is very old now and his style is not MMA-friendly in 2024 (the era of damage and “fight to finish”) if he’s not winning via submission.

Why Bet on Victor Henry?

Victor Henry is a decent enough fighter who doesn’t appear to have the best takedown defense, but hehasn’tbeen submitted in 30 professional fights. That probably counts for something.

Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry Final Betting Analysis:

We aren’tfully on board with the narrative, but people are starting to become very suspicious that old men are starting to dial back the years now that USADA is in the rear-view mirror. 

We’re not saying it’s going to mean anything here…but buyer beware! Yahya looking better than he did last time and getting a win here would still not be the most shocking thing in 2024.

However, our vote is placed on Victor Henry to defend any submission attempts and get the decision win.

UFC Fight Night: Austin Hubbard vs. Michal Figlak 

Why Bet on Austin Hubbard?

Austin Hubbard may have lost his TUF Finale fight last time, but I don’t mind the fact he managed to stay in the UFC. He had quite a few tough matchups during his first stint, and he performed admirably in most of them. 

So many of the opponents he fought were long-distance fighters who utilized grappling to various degrees. He very rarely got outclassed by any of them, except for Joe Solecki who submitted him very quickly. 

Having said all of this, Hubbard doesn’t have a lot of wins among these appearances, and sometimes that’s all that matters.

Why Bet on Michal Figlak?

Figlak is scrappy, and only seems to fight going forward… but his style has gone on to age like milk in a modern MMA sense. He’s a grappler with no submission wins, and his striking only seems to be a means to an end to set up his grappling, so there’s not much of a threat of a finish outside some sort of checkmate-TKO from ground striking. 

In an era where judges credit you for trying to finish the fight, it feels like Figlak will have to do more than most to be deemed the clear round winner because he can’t show them what they want to see.

Austin Hubbard vs. Michal Figlak Final Betting Analysis:

This fight should be very competitive, and the public vote is currently backing Figlak, which is understandable given the hype he had before the underwhelming debut. 

Hubbard is one of those frustrating fighters who fight reactively. His fights mostly seem to involve his opponents running the show and him reacting to what they bring to the table. It’s not a good look at the judges’ scorecards if you aren’t dictating the pace, and we believe it might cost him the fight here.

UFC Fight Night: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado 

Why Bet on Don’Tale Mayes?

Mayes is coming off a tough loss against Nascimento, and it was a fairlystrong back-and-forth boutwith both fighters mostly exchanging punches on the feet. 

He is a powerful puncher with heavy reliance on his hands and his boxing, but he does tend to be too explosive early on in the fight and if he fails to get his opponent out of there, he slows down a whole lot and is a bit more vulnerable to heavy hits. 

Why Bet on Caio Machado?

Machado is a fairly well-rounded fighter who dominated his opponent on DWCS before losing to Mick Parkin in his debut. However, he has pretty predictable attacks. 

Machado does fence fight often and does his best work in the clinch, so if Mayes gives up too much real estate and ends up with his back against the cage, it falls into Machado’s favor andthat’s where he can work heavily on the cage.

Don’Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado Final Betting Analysis:

Machado is at least a bit more consistent with his pace at later rounds than Mayes is. We think the former has the slight edge here, but it just doesn’t matter too much if these big boys are swinging early.

However, we do believe the fight will make it to the third before Caio Machado takes the finish.

UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Souza vs. Marnic Mann 

Why Bet on Ketlen Souza?

Ketlen Souza is one of the women who fell victim to the aforementioned round one bulldozer, Karine Silva. Other than that she only has regional experience, where she didn’t fight anyone of note except Ariane Carnelossi, who she lost to. 

She’s lost four times already in her career. At a WMMA level, that’s usually a red flag so early in your UFC tenure.

Why Bet on Marnic Mann?

Marnic Man looked so, so bad in her UFC debut against Josefine Knuttson.So much so,that the Swede mauled her on the mat and showed off her grappling, despite all of her hype coming from the fact she’s a very good kickboxer.

Ketlen Souza vs. Marnic Mann Final Betting Analysis:

Do not get caught out by the trap here, Souza still has to go out there and beat her opponent, and you cannot trust her to do so. Identifying that one fighter is bad is only half of the job, you need to be able to pick the right spot for someone to go out there and beat them.

We hardly doubt that Souza can find the win, but if you want to bet on this fight for entertainment purposes, take the underdog in Mann and just hope she’s got more to offer than what we saw the first time.

UFC Fight Night: James Llontop vs. Chris Padilla 

Why Bet on James Llontop?

Llontop is coming off a strong showing on DWCS in which he showcased outstanding striking and very strong wrestling. He has risen incredibly quickly to this opportunity in the UFC, with his first Amateur fight being way back in 2017, so he has certainly formed into a very experienced MMA fighter throughout his career, and at the age of 24 with 16 fights under his belt, that’s incredibly impressive. 

James has very solid striking with a preference for fighting in the clinch in which he utilizes beautiful knees and elbows, but he also has nasty kicks at the range, and he puts a lot of energy into those kicks, which are very well timed.

Why Bet on Chris Padilla?

Padilla is coming off a string of strong finishes on UNF (Up Next Fighting), and for the most part, he looks like a genuinely tough opponent for Llontop to take on, on short notice. 

Padilla has relatively similar propensities to fighting that Llontop has, he likes to pressure forward, fight in the clinch, utilize the knees, and often look for takedowns, which could be a detail that puts him ahead of his opponent here. 

Chris Padilla does have a bit of an opening that it’s easy to see, and that’s his guard when he’s in a standing position, it’s a bit loose and a body kick could sneak in there and do some damage. 

James Llontop vs. Chris Padilla Final Betting Analysis:

Llontop is the better and more well-rounded striker, he uses knees and elbows in the clinch which is most likely where the fight could take place, and those kicks to the legs and body he used on DWCS are something special.

We also have to count Llontop’s great wrestling, and that’s going to be very advantageous against the replacement fighter in Padilla, who is likely not too ready for this one, with no full camp so his conditioning is questionable, and we can only assume that Llontop’s takedowns and wrestling attempts will sap at that cardio even more.

UFC Fight Night: Ivana Petrović vs. Na Liang 

Why Bet on Ivana Petrović?

Petrovic was hyped up to be some sort of WMMA phenom, but then she got beaten by Luana Carolina in her UFC debut. It doesn’t bode well for you if you can’t beat a woman of her caliber as a wrestler.

Why Bet on Na Liang?

We think there’s an argument to be made that Na Liang might be on the P4P WORST UFC fighters of all time list. We remember doing tape on her during lockdown for when she fought Ariane Carnelossi, and dropping a massive bet on the Brazilian because Liang didn’t seem to fit the bill. 

She has absolutely no process, and can only win against cans that she can find a submission on.

Ivana Petrović vs. Na Liang Final Betting Analysis:

We are not convinced Petrovic is any good, but she really should roll here.

We genuinely think a soccer mum could beat Na Liang if given a brief on what the Chinese woman’s style is and a bit of a basic rundown on some submission defense. Surely Petrovic knows these things and has been drilling them in camp.

Na Liang simplyshouldn’t be in the UFC with her caliber, so Ivana Petrovic should land the win.

UFC Fight Night: Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Gabriel Benítez

Why Bet on Maheshate Hayisaer?

 Maheshate here, who was never really thought of as anything other than an explosive striker. We know the UFC is so desperate to conquer the Asia market that they’ll sign anyone, so this feels like the opportunity to keep an Asian fighter on the books and snap their losing streak,whilst sacrificing an asset that is pretty worthless to them.

Why Bet on Gabriel Benítez?

Gabriel Benitez was a potential walking red flag going into that Jim Miller fight, having not fought for a couple of years and having beaten a very lowlevel of UFC competition in recent years. 

He then went on to do the unthinkable and lose to Jim Miller in R3.That’shonestly one of the most unforgivable things a fighter could do in 2024. And the way that he tapped was pretty shocking also, that choke was NOT fully in.

Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Gabriel Benítez Final Betting Analysis:

This is being lined like it’s a gimme fight! Maheshate is definitely keen to score a finish and do damage, and Benitez just looked so slow and plodding against Miller that we have a hard time seeing him earn any respect in the striking, and he’ll probably get whipped eventually.

It’s a fight between two guys who aren’t UFC quality anymore. This is once again a fight that leads us to have serious concerns about the whole ordeal, but our token is on Maheshate Hayisaer. After an exciting event 2 weeks ago at UFC 300, and a little break in between, we get back into action with a pretty nice fight night taking place in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Nicolau vs. Perez Betting Pick: Matheus Nicolau

Spann vs. Guskov Betting Pick: Bogdan Guskov

Silva vs. Lipski Betting Pick: Karine Silva

Diniz vs. Lane Betting Pick: Jhonata Diniz

Pearce vs. Onama Betting Pick: Jonathan Pierce

Means vs. Medic Betting Pick: Uros Medic

Yahya vs. Henry Betting Pick: Victor Henry

Hubbard vs. Figlak Betting Pick: Michal Figlak

Mayes vs. Machado Betting Pick: Caio Machado

Souza vs. Mann Betting Pick: Marnic Mann

Llontop vs. Padilla Betting Pick: James Llontop

Petrović vs. Liang Betting Pick: Ivana Petrović

Hayisaer vs. Benítez Betting Pick: Maheshate Hayisaer

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