UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on March 21, 2024 11:54 am by Erwin Noguera

With three events counting down before UFC 300, it seems like the build-up keeps getting better and better, and it is time to visit the Apex once again to enjoy another 13 fights four our regular UFC Fight Night.

The main event on this card will be an exciting clash in the Strawweight division, as the former title holder, Rose Namajunas will be facing the rising contender, Amanda Ribas.

The Heavyweights will have the spotlight on the co-main event, as both Karl Williams and Justin Tafa look forward to their clash in the middle of the world’s most famous Octagon for three scheduled rounds, on a fight that is unlikely to make the distance.

The other main card fights will be exciting, as clashes between Edmen Shahbazyan and AJ Dobson, along with a clash between exciting talents like the undefeated Payton Talbott and Cameron Saaiman.

Besides 6 main card fights, we also have 7 prelims on the card and they have multiple undefeated fighters ready to start up the card and get it running as the hype for the main event increases.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, March 23rd, at 7:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds

Amanda Ribas 2.998 / Rose Namajunas 1.4

Karl Williams 1.55 / Justin Tafa 2.487

Edmen Shahbazyan 1.55 / AJ Dobson 2.487

Payton Talbott 1.686 / Cameron Saaiman 2.19

Billy Quarantillo 1.74 / Youssef Zalal 2.113

Luis Pajuelo 2.287/ Fernando Padilla 1.635

Trey Ogden 1.686 / Kurt Holobaugh 2.148

Ricardo Ramos 1.63 / Julian Erosa 2.254

Miles Johns 1.68 / Cody Gibson 2.169

Steven Nguyen 1.53 / Jarno Errens 2.478

Montserrat Rendon 2.616 / Darya Zheleznyakova 1.49

Igor Severino 2.388 / André Lima 1.57

Mohammed Usman 2.178 / Mick Parkin 1.68

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas

Why Bet on Amanda Ribas?

Rose is coming off of two straight losses with the first being against Carla Esparza in one of the strangest fights we’ve ever seen. Combined in a 5-round fight, the ladies landed 67 strikes; 37 for Rose and 30 for Carla.

Rose’s corner was telling her that she was winning for some reason, and it was one of the worst corner coaching jobs in UFC history. Rose could have won that fight, but held back and regretted it as she got a close split decision loss.

In the next fight, she moved up to flyweight and fought the striking machine that is Manon Fiorot who is 5’7” and just bigger. Rose was outgunned by the bigger fighter, but she performed well and looked like her old self, and her corner gave her the correct advice in the fight.

So she’s coming off of two losses and gets a big step down in competition, and we get a great betting opportunity.

Why Bet on Rose Namajunas?

Amanda Ribas is high energy and high volume, but she’s sloppy at times and has a terrible striking defense. She’s 2-2 in her last four fights, and her wins are against opponents that Rose Namajunas would easily beat in our honest opinion.

In her last fight against Luana Pinheiro, she got the 3rd round knockout, but Ribas got beat up badly in the first round before she weathered the storm. Pinheiro gassed out and got knocked out, but we’re pretty sure Ribas was losing that fight until the knockout.

Her previous win was against Viviane Araujo who is 2-4 in her last 6 fights, and Ribas was able to take her down and control her and land ground and pound.

Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas Final Betting Analysis:

Ribas just isn’t going to be able to do what she did to Araujo against Rose. The latter is bigger, this is a 5-round fight, and Rose has fought in plenty of them so she knows how to pace herself, and although Ribas has good cardio, she can tire herself out searching for positions or strikes that aren’t there.

Also, in a 5-round fight, we believe Rose is going to land damage in the early rounds that will slow Ribas down and wear her out.

A 3-round fight would give Ribas a better chance to sneak out a couple of rounds, but we simply don’t see her winning three rounds out of five against Rose, and we don’t see a finish from Ribas as Rose can defend the strikes and ground game of her foe.

UFC Fight Night: Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa

Why Bet on Karl Williams?

Williams, a Virgin Islands-born athlete fighting out of Atlanta, is coming into this clash with a full training camp. He is entering the bout on a six-fight win streak, including victories in his first two promotional appearances against Lukasz Bzreski and Chase Sherman.

Why Bet on Justin Tafa?

Justin Tafa (7-3), a New Zealander fighting out of Australia, is replacing his brother for this clash, returning a favor from a replacement his brother made for him not too long ago.

The elder Tafa is unbeaten in his past four outings, including three first-round knockout victories.

Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa Final Betting Analysis:

This is a wrestler vs striker matchup as Wiliams will look to wrestle Tafa and Tafa will look to land the big KO shot. Williams has great wrestling, but his cardio is a bit suspect, and his rival is a really big, strong guy who is tough to take down.

If Williams takes him down and controls him, he’ll waltz to an easy win, but if he doesn’t get him down and he gasses himself out, Tafa will knock him out.

It’s a bit concerning that Tafa had to drop out of his fight at UFC 298 with a leg injury, but if he’s good to go in this one, we think he’s worth a sprinkle to win by KO when props come out.

UFC Fight Night: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson

Why Bet on Edmen Shahbazyan?

Shahbazyan is only 1-4 in his last five fights, but he’s lost to Fluffy Hernandez, Nassourdine Imavov, and Jack Hermansson in that span so he’s losing against great fighters.

Why Bet on AJ Dobson?

We don’t think Dobson is a great fighter as he’s 1-2 in the UFC, and at 32 years old, we simply just don’t see a lot of upside in the next phase of his career. He got the decision to win against Nchukwi in his last fight, but that was as boring as it gets.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson Final Betting Analysis:

The prediction for this fight: Very low volume, not a lot of power, and if we’re looking at who has more weapons, more energy, and more ways to finish it’s Shahbazyan by far and that’s who we are picking here.

Dobson is as lackluster as it gets, so Shahbazyan should be able to overwhelm him and take this fight.

UFC Fight Night: Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman

Why Bet on Payton Talbott?

Talbott struggled on the ground in the first round against Nick Aguirre in his debut before turning the tide and eventually getting the finish, but his takedown defense left a lot to be desired.

Why Bet on Cameron Saaiman?

Saimann is coming off a loss to Christian Rodriguez as Rodriguez is becoming the gatekeeper to young fighters.

Saimann’s three wins in the UFC have been against guys who shouldn’t be or aren’t in the UFC and C-Rod put it on Saimann in rounds two and three and pieced him up on the feet and on the ground and Saimann’s striking defense and cardio looked very questionable.

Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman Final Betting Analysis:

We think the biggest advantage a fighter has in this fight is Talbott’s advantage on the feet. Talbott is long and powerful, and we think he can wear Saimann down as the fight goes on, but we’re not sure that Saimann has the weapons to take full advantage of the weaknesses of Talbott.

We think this fight will be wild, but our token is on Talbott.

UFC Fight Night: Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal

Why Bet on Billy Quarantillo?

Quarantillo, 6 – 3 in the UFC, is coming off a unanimous decision win over Damon Jackson at UFC Nashville. Before that, he had been knocked out by Edson Barboza at UFC Kansas City.

Now it’s his fight to try and get some momentum going.

Why Bet on Youssef Zalal?

Interesting fight here as Zalal got cut by the UFC, but he has won several fights in the Sparta promotion along with a kickboxing and boxing win. Now he makes his return to the UFC against Billy Q, and we’ve seen this situation before.

Modestas Bukaskas got cut by the UFC, came back, and had success as we cashed on him beating Tyson Pedro, but we did like the situation much better for Bukaskas.

Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal Final Betting Analysis:

Quarantillo has a really good pace and volume, and we don’t know where Zalal’s advantage is. It’s not going to be on the feet as the former has great movement and doesn’t absorb too much damage, and on the ground, he is very active.

The fact is, Zalal has fought horrible opponents since leaving the UFC, and now he comes back to fight a legit UFC fighter. He’ll get outclassed here.

UFC Fight Night: Luis Pajuelo vs. Fernando Padilla

Why Bet on Luis Pajuelo?

Pajuelo is coming off of a Contender Series win where his opponent was a grappler/ wrestler, but for some reason decided to try and strike with Pajuelo, only to get knocked out in the first round.

Pajuelo seems to be a solid striker, but we haven’t seen a whole lot from him so I don’t think I can confidently say what I expect.

Why Bet on Fernando Padilla?

Padilla won his UFC debut but then suffered a loss against Kyle Nelson in his next fight, and even though he had really good moments in that duel on the feet, Nelson put on a savvy veteran performance where he weathered the early storm, and then stole rounds two and three.

Luis Pajuelo vs. Fernando Padilla Final Betting Analysis:

We like the chances of Padilla getting back into the winning column here, as his length and striking will be too much for Pajuelo to handle.

Things might be a little tough for Pajuelo, as Padilla is the more skilled striker here, and there is no way that he will manage to grapple his way out of this situation.

Padilla will likely school him and it’s not going to be pretty.

UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Why Bet on Trey Ogden?

Trey Ogden was able to follow his controversial UFC debut loss to Jordan Leavitt with an upset over Daniel Zellhuber, only to fall short against another towering Latino prospect in Ignacio Bahamondes.

“The Samurai Ghost” has been on ups and downs during his UFC tenure, but was well on his way to even up his record after two dominant rounds against Nikolas Motta. He had to settle for a “No Contest” after the referee prematurely called off the bout.

Why Bet on Kurt Holobaugh?

Holobaugh managed to see his Contender Series beatdown of Matt Bessette overturned because of unapproved IV use, but he still managed to get his Octagon shot one year later.

He left the organization winless after three straight losses, but after a pair of get-well wins in XFC, he joined the cast of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 31, finishing Lee Hammond and Jason Knight in the house before choking out Austin Hubbard at the Finale.

Seventeen of his professional wins, including all of them since 2016, have come inside the distance.

Trey Ogden vs. Kurt Holobaugh Final Betting Analysis:

Holobaugh’s weakness is, and always has been, his takedown defense. Thiago Moises and Raoni Barcelos combined to take him down seven times and the two he gave up to Hubbard suggest that he’s yet to fix the issue.

A fighter who compensates for technical deficiencies with raw aggression can’t afford to give opponents such a consistent escape route. Though Ogden is nobody’s idea of an overpowering wrestler — boasting a shiny 16 percent takedown accuracy in the Octagon — he’s willing and able to just keep shooting over and over until it works.

That cardio — combined with a rapidly improving standup game, makes me think he can consistently blunt Holobaugh’s momentum with takedowns and rack up enough top control to claim victory.

UFC Fight Night: Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa

Why Bet on Ricardo Ramos?

After joining UFC via Lookin’ for a Fight, Ricardo Ramos kicked off his Octagon tenure with a 5-1 run, notably being able to beat Michinori Tanaka, Aiemann Zahabi, and Kyung Ho Kang along the way.

He has alternated losses and wins since most recently succumbing to a Charles Jourdain guillotine in Sept. 2023.

Why Bet on Julian Erosa?

Julian Erosa initially washed out of UFC on a 0-3 skid but made the most of his second chance with a 5-1 run that saw him earn two post-fight bonuses.

Julian’s momentum wasn’t to last, and he now enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of back-to-back knockout losses.

Twelve of his 23 professional finishes have come via submission.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa Final Betting Analysis:

In the interest of full disclosure: we struggle to get a bead on Erosa in this fight. I can’t see Ramos losing this without a truly spectacular brain fart. Erosa’s career-long durability issues are back in the spotlight after a brief remission and Ramos is the superior grappler besides.

However, that brain fart may be possible, as we still remember Ramos boogering his way to a ground-and-pound loss against Lerone Murphy and he somehow bumbled into Jourdain’s only good submission.

Erosa’s chin still seems like the more pressing issue, especially since Ramos also has his ground game to rely on. We say he chins “Juicy J” sometime late in the first frame.

UFC Fight Night: Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson

Why Bet on Miles Johns?

Miles Johns — who claimed Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) gold in 2018 with a split decision over Adrian Yanez — dominated Richie Santiago on Contender Series to claim a contract in 2019.

He currently sits at 3-2 (1 NC) in the world’s largest mixed martial arts promotion after a failed drug test overturned his Sept. 2023 decision over TUF veteran, Dan Argueta.

He steps in for Davey Grant on little more than two weeks’ notice.

Why Bet on Cody Gibson?

The first UFC tenure for Cody Gibson saw him 1-3 in 12 months before leaving the promotion in 2015. An 8-2 surge brought him to The Ultimate Fighter eight years later, but after dispatching Mando Gutierrez and Rico DiSciullo in the house, he fell short against Brad Katona in the Finale.

Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson Final Betting Analysis:

Pace seems like the deciding factor here. Though Johns has a strong gas tank, as seen when he shut down Argueta’s wrestling onslaught, he’s prone to baffling bursts of inactivity at times.

That’s going to be an awful problem to have against Gibson, a merciless pressure fighter who — unlike Argueta — is an actual threat on the feet.

Gibson admittedly ran out of steam against Brad Katona, but Johns rarely throws even a third as many strikes as Katona did that night. Without the offensive wrestling to punch through Gibson’s takedown defense or the consistent output to slow him down on the feet, it seems inevitable that Gibson will be able to walk him down and out-works him for the win.

UFC Fight Night: Steven Nguyen vs. Jarno Errens

Why Bet on Steven Nguyen?

The first Contender Series bid for Steven Nguyen saw him knocked out in three by Aalon Cruz, while his second saw him defeat Theo Rlayang, but fail to claim a contract in the process.

He was able to return to the Contender Series program once again two years later, this time smashing A.J. Cunningham to finally earn a spot in the Octagon.

His professional finishes are split 4:3 between knockouts and submissions.

Why Bet on Jarno Errens?

Jarno Errens joined UFC in 2022 amid a 5-1-1 run, stepping up on short notice to battle the local favorite William Gomis and ultimately settling for a majority decision loss.

Eleven months later, he took on struggling veteran, Seung Woo Choi, who managed to survive a second-round knockdown to grit his way to a unanimous decision win.

He’s submitted five professional foes and knocked out three others.

Steven Nguyen vs. Jarno Errens Final Betting Analysis:

If Nguyen’s bloodthirst against Cunningham was a sign of things to come and not just the byproduct of a hyper-aggressive opponent, the Featherweight division may have a problem on its hands.

Killer instinct has long been the missing piece of his game — and with all due respect to Errens — he’s in for an awful night if that version shows up.

Even if he doesn’t and the high-volume, low-power decision artist who beat Rlayang makes an appearance, he’s much too technically savvy to lose this matchup on the feet.

Errens couldn’t keep his foot on the gas or even hit a takedown on the very limited Choi, so we are not expecting much from him against a genuinely savvy boxer. In the end, volume and technique carry Nguyen to a one-sided win.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Rendon vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

Why Bet on Montserrat Rendon?

Montserrat Rendon went undefeated in Combate Global and 1-0 in the short-lived Freedom Fight Night before controversially getting the win on Brittney Cloudy in her Invicta debut.

“Monster” made her UFC debut one year later, surviving a rough start to claim her third split decision win in four bouts.

Why Bet on Darya Zheleznyakova?

Dariya Zheleznyakova capped off a perfect professional start with a decision over Octagon veteran, Liana Jojua, only to fall to Mellisa Mullins her next time out.

However, she did return to action five months later, getting back into the win column after smashing Marie Loiseau in 87 seconds. That victory marked her fifth by knockout.

Montserrat Rendon vs. Darya Zheleznyakova Final Betting Analysis:

Rendon is an extraordinarily limited fighter who was fortunate enough to face an even more limited fighter in her debut. The thing here is that she won’t be having the same luck when she enters the octagon this time.

Zheleznyakova is a genuinely fearsome boxer who figures to wreak havoc on Rendon’s poor defense and limited arsenal. Rendon’s only hope is to be able to take her opponent down to work her Brazilian jiu-jitsu from the top, but despite Mullins pulling it off, that’s much easier said than done.

So long as Zheleznyakova doesn’t hand Rendon top control on a silver platter, she’ll sprawl and brawl to victory with little resistance. Indeed, she tears apart Rendon on the feet for either a sweep on the scorecards or a violent finish.

UFC Fight Night: Igor Severino vs. André Lima

Why Bet on Igor Severino?

The fourth bout for Igor Severino in the venerable Jungle Fight promotion saw him knockout Manoel Rodrigues for Flyweight gold at just 19 years of age. He then joined the Contender Series only 13 months later, claiming a UFC contract by stopping Jhonata Silva midway through the second round.

He’s ended all of his professional bouts inside the distance, four each by knockout and submission.

Why Bet on André Lima?

Andre Lima cut his teeth in Brazil’s Spartacus MMA before battering a fellow countryman, Igor Taylon, into submission under the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) banner.

His fourth bout of 2023 took place on the Contender Series, where he out-classed Rickson Zenidim to claim his current UFC contract.

Igor Severino vs. André Lima Final Betting Analysis:

Severino is downright sedated by Chute Boxe standards, employing a patient and technical approach despite his age and ultra-aggressive training partners.

He might need some of his teammate, Joanderson Brito’s wildness here, however. Lima is the crisper striker out of the two, but he’s also usually content to throw one or two strikes at a time.

Severino’s best chance is to keep the pressure up like he did on Contender Series, and though this may be the optimist in us speaking, we do believe he might be up for the task.

This is the best kind of prospect matchup, one that pits both men against an opponent equipped to exploit their most significant flaws. Severino has the higher ceiling for our money and should prove it here, narrowly out-working Lima to a competitive decision.

UFC Fight Night: Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin

Why Bet on Mohammed Usman?

Mohammed Usman (brother to former champion Kamaru Usman) took out Mitchell Sipe and Eduardo Perez in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 30 house before upsetting Zac Pauga with a one-punch KO to claim victory in the tournament.

“The Motor” has had a perfect run (2-0) in the UFC since, grinding his way past Junior Tafa and Jake Collier within five months.

Four of his six professional finishes have come via submission.

Why Bet on Mick Parkin?

Despite entering as a 2:1 underdog for that bout, Mick Parkin required less than two minutes to choke out Eduardo Neves on the Contender Series and claim his UFC contract.

His UFC tenure has seen him dispatch two other Contender Series graduates Jamal Pogues and Caio Machado in four months. He is now stepping in for Chris Barnett on less than two months’ notice.

Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin Final Betting Analysis:

Even though we have to make an effort to not downplay Usman’s successes, he didn’t make it easy on us. Landing only seven strikes on Tafa despite 12 minutes of top control and out-lasting an out-of-shape Jake Collier is not what one would be calling the stuff of highlight reels.

Though Parkin failed to set the world on fire in his clash against a fighter in Machado whom we thought he’d torch, he doesn’t have any outstanding weaknesses for Usman to exploit and is the far better striker to boot.

We have to consider that Usman has a shot if Parkin’s conditioning isn’t up for the task, and between the ugly Machado fight and the relatively short notice coming into this clash, that’s a very real possibility.

Still, it seems far likelier that Parkin just shuts down Usman’s ugly takedowns, uses the size advantage to hold his own in the clinch, and boxes him up for a comfortable decision.