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UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on February 29, 2024 9:44 am by Erwin Noguera

After an exciting UFC-numbered event and an exciting trip to Mexico City to witness a banger of a card, we are making our way back to Las Vegas, as the UFC Apex will be the stop for the upcoming fight night event taking place this Saturday.

5 of the fights in this card were canceled or fizzled, which means that this event ended up a little shorter than what we are used to, making it an 11-bout card.

However, that doesn’t mean we are getting less quality, as our main event proves, with an excellent clash between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and the undefeated Shamil Gaziev in the heavyweight division.

Our co-main event also sports an undefeated fighter, as Vitor Petrino faces Tyson Pedro in the Light-heavyweight division to ramp up the fun before the headliner goes down.

Our co-main event sees a rematch between former featherweight interim Mexican champion, Yair Rodriguez and former title challenger, Brian Ortega, in what could easily be a title eliminator clash.

We also get two other undefeated fighters facing off against seasoned opponents when the unbeaten Muhammad Mokaev meets Alex Perez, just after the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov faces Bekzat Almakhan in the cage. 

Besides that, we got a ton of international talent from start to finish along the whole card, starting with a lot of talented fighters making their way to the cage in the prelims.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info


Saturday, March 2nd, at 1:30 pm ET

Moneyline odds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik 2.381 vs. Shamil Gaziev 1.613

Vitor Petrino 1.333 vs. Tyson Pedro 3.385

Alex Perez 3.97 vs. Muhammad Mokaev 1.269

Umar Nurmagomedov 1.074 vs. Bekzat Almakhan 8.7

Matt Schnell 3.6 vs. Steve Erceg 1.303

Eryk Anders 1.218 vs. Jamie Pickett 4.24

Ľudovít Klein 1.088 vs. AJ Cunningham 7.55

Javid Basharat 1.133 vs. Aiemann Zahabi 5.74

Christian Leroy Duncan 1.332 vs. Claudio Ribeiro 3.275

Vinicius Oliveira TBD vs. Benardo Sopai TBD

Loik Radzhabov 2.254 vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 1.635

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev

Why Bet on Jairzinho Rozenstruik?

The 35-year star has lost 5 of his last 8 UFC bouts and is starring at the drop outside of the top-20 heavyweight rankings if his octagon misfortunes continue. With that said, there’s no denying the kickboxing-heavy skill set and power this man possesses in his hands. 

While the 7-5 UFC record doesn’t look pretty on paper, four of those losses involved former champions or title contenders, and his most recent setback came against a rising star in Jailton Almeida.

Why Bet on Shamil Gaziev?

Outside of Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, Ciryl Gane, and Serghei Pavlovich, the UFC heavyweight division is in desperate need of top-tier talent. This likely explains Shamil Gaziev’s fast track to a UFC Vegas main event, where despite being ranked #20 with only one UFC bout, the Bahrain native is gifted the opportunity to make a name for himself on the big stage instantly.

The hard-wearing terrains of Dagestan, Russia, have provided a multitude of elite-level mixed martial artists, and Gaziev is being tipped as the next to blow.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Final Betting Analysis:

There’s no denying Gaziev’s various paths to victory in this contest. From the wrestling upside with a potential submission finish as well as a grounded TKO or even utilizing his punching power on the feet with a wild haymaker or two. In contrast, Rozenstruik isn’t going to deploy a grappling-based game plan. His lone route to having his hand raised is via the kickboxing offensive and deadly KO-power he’s renowned for.

 It’s hard to envision Gaziev delivering the same finishing threat as round one or two when should the fight go beyond the third. However, we don’t think Rozenstruik is going to be able to spark Gaziev early in the fight, and Gaziev has a good enough ground game and striking game to slow down Rozenstruik early, and the longer the fight goes, the more it favors the Dagestani.

UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro

Why Bet on Vitor Petrino?

Petrino is quite an exciting prospect at light heavyweight. Outside of his excellent kickboxing skillset and his obvious knockout power, the Brazilian contender can keep a hard pace for three rounds, which is an unusual trait for the division. In addition, he’s shown good composure and patience for a young fighter with so many finishes under his belt.

Why Bet on Tyson Pedro?

It’s hard not to talk about Pedro without mentioning his potential. Every so often, the Aussie looks like a world-beater, showing off the size and dynamic ability that has scored so many knockouts. 

When not, he instead looks flat, gets tired, and leaves viewers wondering what has to click for Pedro to climb the ladder.

Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro Final Betting Analysis:

The long and short of this fight is that we don’t expect it to reach the judges’ decision. They both have slick offensive kickboxing and nasty power, yet neither is a defensive wizard. That’s a recipe for a stoppage in ten minutes.

The advantage for Petrino is that he has yet to be stopped and fights more effectively in the long run. Conversely, Pedro has more high-level experience, as well as more submissions, so perhaps he has the option to switch things up down the line.

It’s hard to be overly confident when this much power is in play, but we are placing our tokens on Petrino. Pedro is a reasonable step up, and thus far, “Icao” has passed every step with flying colors. Petrino can trade with Pedro, earn his respect, and slowly take over as the fight wears on.

UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev

Why Bet on Alex Perez?

Alex Perez may cut too much weight, which explains the injuries and backstage seizures. When he is in the cage, however, he’s a top-notch wrestler with big power in his hands and kicks, as well as solid submission ability. His issues making it to the cage have made people forget just how dangerous he can be, even though he was showcasing just that on his rise to the title shot.

Why Bet on Muhammad Mokaev?

Mokaev has been a model of consistency. Even when his leg was ripped to shreds at UFC 286, he was back in the cage competing and winning just five months later. As a standout wrestler, Mokaev manages to push a hard pace and is developing quickly into a top talent contender.

Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev Final Betting Analysis:

If Perez would perform like he was back in 2020, we would back him in a heartbeat. On paper, he has the wrestling to keep up with Mokaev, and he’s the much more ferocious striker. He also has great cardio, so the typical strategy of drowning him with wrestling feels unlikely to work.

However, we have nothing to back up such a promise. Since Nov. 2020, Perez has spent just 3.5 minutes competing as a professional in the Octagon. Activity and momentum are really important at the elite level, particularly in a division like Flyweight where everyone moves so fast and timing becomes even more vital.

Likely, Perez has some rust to shake off. By the time he gets warmed up, Mokaev will already be at least a round-up on him, and “The Punisher” knows how to keep that ball rolling.

UFC Fight Night: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Why Bet on Umar Nurmagomedov?

Nurmagomedov is currently the Bantamweight nobody wants to fight if the rumors are true at least. The Dagestani talent is an elite wrestler with knockout power, so it certainly makes sense why he would be avoided by everyone other than Cory Sandhagen. At the same time, he also hasn’t beaten any elite opposition yet.

Why Bet on Bekzat Almakhan?

When it comes to the casual fight fan, nobody knows who Almakhan is. Fortunately, the Kazakh fighter is accomplished in his own right, and he’s stopped 13 opponents via knockout.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan Final Betting Analysis:

Nurmagomedov is not a fair debut opponent, as he is a contender who would be favored by odds makers against many in the top ten, yet Almakhan has to handle the jump in competition and his first UFC experience all at once.

We have to agree that it is an absurd task. Nurmagomedov has a smothering wrestling style that rarely fails because it offers little room for the opponent to do much of anything.

We expect Almakhan to have a solid UFC career. We do not, however, expect that career to begin with a victory here.

UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg

Why Bet on Matt Schnell?

Schnell doesn’t know how to have a boring fight. He is a jiu-jitsu black belt who also has gnarly calf kicks and pretty good punching power, and routinely throws himself into the fray; even when it’s not in his best interest. 

Why Bet on Steve Erceg?

Meanwhile, Erceg is a skilled new face in the Flyweight mix. His grappling is excellent — the Aussie has finished nine foes via submission — but he is also able to manage the distance well and make beautiful Muay Thai combinations on the feet, which makes him quite a dynamic athlete.

Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg Final Betting Analysis:

Schnell is the more dynamic athlete here, as he hits harder and has a lot of cage time with the top ten Flyweights, which is valuable. Erceg had a bit of trouble with the physicality of Alessandro Costa in his last appearance, so there appears to be a clear path to victory for the former.

The problem is that Schnell is 34 years old and gets rocked in most of his fights. Add a very difficult weight cut into the mix, and it feels like Erceg’s composure and consistency are probably the safer bet.

Maybe Schnell blows him out of the water for an early finish, but Erceg’s never been stopped. Given time to work, we expect “Astro Boy” to land heavy eventually and start to take over as a result.

UFC Fight Night: Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett

Why Bet on Eryk Anders?

Anders has been roughly the same fighter since his UFC debut in 2017. The Southpaw’s primary assets are strength and durability, as well as a rather heavy left hand. Every other fight, he opts to stop throwing his left hand and try to shoot for not-very-good single-leg takedowns. It rarely works.

Why Bet on Jamie Pickett?

Pickett is something of a generalist. He’s not awful anywhere, but he’s not a standout knockout artist, dominant wrestler, or submission ace, which means his opponents are often able to choose where to engage him. This could work either way for him in this match-up.

Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett Final Betting Analysis:

Anders isn’t amazing, but there’s a reason he’s been on the roster for seven years. He is a consistent fighter, and he could be considered as a good test of separating the upper half of Middleweight from those unable to hack it at the highest level. 

In this bout, he’ll get the striking match he desires, and it doesn’t feel like Pickett will have the ability to hurt him.

Even if the stand-up unexpectedly goes against him, Anders can probably jam Pickett into the fence and cage-control him for three rounds.

UFC Fight Night: Ľudovít Klein vs. AJ Cunningham

Why Bet on Ľudovít Klein?

Ludovit Klein had a spectacular UFC Debut after scoring a 76-second Knockout. However, that ended up making way for a pair of back-to-back losses, the first being a controversial decision to Michael Trizano and the other a decision loss in his bout with Nate Landwehr.

It seems like the move up in weight class may be just what “Mr. Highlight” needed to shine, as he is unbeaten in his last four fights. He has 16 finishes in his career, they are split as 8 KOs and 8 Submissions.

Why Bet on AJ Cunningham?

 A.J. Cunningham arrived into the Contender Series in the middle of a 6-1 run, including victories in both the LFA and Fury FC. His momentum wasn’t enough to prevent him from being stopped in the second round by Steven Nguyen. He is stepping in for thee-scheduled Joel Alvarez on less than one week’s notice.

Ľudovít Klein vs. AJ Cunningham Final Betting Analysis:

We had high hopes for Klein going into his UFC debut, but his abilities seem to be wildly inconsistent from fight to fight. He out-classed Devonte Smith, then needed a point deduction to steal a draw against another big striker in Jai Herbert, and then out-classed another big striker in Ignacio Bahamondes. He is a total nightmare when he’s on; the problem is not knowing when the switch has been flipped.

Luckily for him, any version of Klein wins this matchup. Cunningham’s striking defense is nonexistent and the ease with which Nguyen destroyed him with the jab bodes ill for his chances against Klein’s straight left. 

Unless Cunningham manages to survive the beating long enough for Klein to gas out, the latter kicks his head off within five minutes.

UFC Fight Night: Javid Basharat vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Why Bet on Javid Basharat?

Javid Basharat dominated fellow unbeaten Oron Kahlon in their clash in the Contender Series, as he claimed his eleventh consecutive stoppage and a UFC contract. He then proceeded to win his next three fights, all of them in the Octagon, but had to settle for a “No Contest” back in October after inadvertently kicking Victor Henry in his family jewels.

Why Bet on Aiemann Zahabi?

After scoring an easy victory over Reginaldo Vieira in his UFC debut, Aiemann Zahabi only entered the cage in two fights during the next four years, both of them losses. The inactivity continued, producing only three more fights in the last three years, but he emerged victorious in all three and claimed a post-fight bonus in the process.

His professional finishes are split 5:3 between knockouts and submissions.

Javid Basharat vs. Aiemann Zahabi Final Betting Analysis:

Zahabi has a mobile, yet conservative approach, which works a treat against come-forward sluggers. If the opponent doesn’t press forward, he’ll instead circle and potshot all night without giving them a chance to put him in danger, like his bout against Ricky Turcios. If they try to force the issue, he’ll melt them with counters, as he did against Drako Rodriguez and Aoriqileng.

However, we are not convinced that this is the right way to deal with Basharat. “The Snow Leopard” isn’t one to overextend — give him room to operate and he’ll simply piece you up with cleaner, faster strikes.

Unless Zahabi manages to send him to sleep with one punch, Basharat is going to prove to be just too slick and well-rounded to handle, especially since he also figures to be the better wrestler. 

In the end, Basharat’s superior kickboxing carries him to a one-sided decision.

UFC Fight Night: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro

Why Bet on Christian Leroy Duncan?

Christian Leroy Duncan managed to knock out Djati Melan with flying knees to claim the title in Cage Warriors back in April 2022, and then he was able to dispatch Marian Dimitrov with a spinning elbow in his inaugural defense. 

He had to settle for an injury stoppage and decision loss in his first two Octagon bouts, but he was able to return to his highlight-reel ways by dismantling the late replacement Denis Tiuliulin during his last time out.

Why Bet on Claudio Ribeiro?

Claudio Ribeiro — former Thunder Fight and Future MMA Middleweight champion — needed just 25 seconds to flatten Ivan Valenzuela on Contender Series and punch his ticket to the Octagon. He is on a 1-2 run in his UFC tenure, as he landed a beatdown of Joseph Holmes sandwiched between getting knocked out by both Abdul Razak Alhassan and Roman Kopylov.

Nine of his 11 knockouts have come in the first round.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro Final Betting Analysis:

Duncan’s loss to Armen Petrosyan showed that he has a lack of depth in his standup game. It seems that once his speed and unpredictability aren’t enough to overwhelm opponents, he doesn’t have a technical base to fall back on. That would have cost him in a planned matchup against Cesar Almeida, but his dynamism was enough to beat Tiuliulin and it’s enough to beat Ribeiro.

All Ribeiro has going for him in this matchup is raw power — he’s out-classed in virtually every other aspect. Being out-struck by a monster like Kopylov is one thing, but getting battered by Alhassan is a serious red flag. By all accounts, Duncan’s style will be a little bit too fast, mobile, and too powerful for him to deal with. 

Unless Duncan telegraphs a flying/spinning technique and runs face-first into a counter, he out-classes Ribeiro en route to a violent finish.

UFC Fight Night: Vinicius Oliveira vs. Benardo Sopai

Why Bet on Vinicius Oliveira?

Vinicius Oliveira’s six-fight win streak and UAE Warriors title were both shut down when Ali Taleb arrived and out-slugged him in one of 2022’s more underrated fights of the year. 

After getting back on the win column with a first-round knockout of his own, he managed to take his talent to the Contender Series, where a nasty left hook managed to flatten Victor Madrigal and earned Oliveira a UFC contract. He has finished 17 professional fights inside the distance, 15 of them via knockout.

Why Bet on Benardo Sopai?

Allstars’ Bernardo Sopai managed to win his sole amateur bout and continue the streak with his first six professional bouts before hitting a 2-2 slump. Subsequent efforts proved more successful, entering the cage this Saturday on the heels of three consecutive finishes.

He will be stepping in for Yanis Ghemmouri on less than one week’s notice.

Vinicius Oliveira vs. Benardo Sopaj Final Betting Analysis:

Oliveira would have blasted Ghemmouri into oblivion if that bout had taken place — and even though his new opponent is going to be a tougher challenge than Ghemmouri in most areas — this still looks like a knockout win for “Lok Dog.” 

Sopai looks like a very undersized fighter for the division he is in; he also doesn’t check low kicks and tends to leave his chin up in exchanges, all of which play directly into Oliveira’s hands.

That’s assuming that Oliveira can keep his composure, of course. If he fights as he did in the Contender Series — staying on the back foot and tearing up Sopai’s lead leg until “The Lion King” overextends — it’s his fight to lose. 

If he swings like an idiot, Sopai will sleep him with a counterright. We’ll lean toward the Brazilian and say he jacks Sopai’s jaw with a right hand in the opening few minutes.

UFC Fight Night: Loik Radzhabov vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Why Bet on Loik Radzhabov?

After having a strong PFL run, and scoring a submission over Zach Zane in his PFL debut, Loik Radzhabov made his first Octagon walk in March 2023. Loik managed to defeat Esteban Ribovics for his fourth win in five bouts. His bout against Mateusz Rebecki proved disastrous, as he missed weight before being TKOed in the second round.

Why Bet on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady?

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady claimed the Fury FC’s Lightweight title after he cruised past Michael Murphy when he was in the third bout with the promotion. Nevertheless, he entered the Contender Series as a big underdog against the Cage Warriors champion, George Hardiwch. 

Undaunted, “The Pride of Palestine” turned in a career-best performance to win both a unanimous decision and a UFC contract. He’s knocked out five professional foes and submitted three others so far in his career.

Loik Radzhabov vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Final Betting Analysis:

Al-Selwady won’t be as tough of a matchup for Radzhabov as Rebecki was, but he’s not far behind. The footwork and sharpshooting he showed against Hardwick should work a treat against the lumbering “Tajik Tank,” as should the inside low kicks he’s so fond of. Even if Radzhabov does manage to close the distance and tie up, Al-Selwady’s wrestling looks up to the task of keeping it where he wants it.

Unless Al-Selwady’s takedown defense is worse than his takedown offense, he has everything he needs to outclass Radzhabov on the feet and shut down all of his possible attempts to take him down to the mat. We expect Radzhabov to have a dominant decision win.

Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Betting Pick: Shamil Gaziev

Petrino vs. Pedro Betting Pick: Vitor Petrino

Perez vs. Mokaev Betting Pick: Muhammad Mokaev

Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan Betting Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov

Schnell vs. Erceg Betting Pick: Steve Erceg

Anders vs. Pickett Betting Pick: Eryk Anders

Klein vs. Cunningham Betting Pick: Ludovit Klein

Basharat vs. Zahabi Betting Pick: Javid Basharat

Duncan vs. Ribeiro Betting Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan

Oliveira vs. Sopai Betting Pick: Vinicius Oliveira

Radzhabov vs. Al-Selwady Betting Pick: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

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