UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on June 29, 2023 2:40 pm by Erwin Noguera

We are starting July with quite an excellent UFC Fight Night right before the numbered event of international fight week.

We are hitting the UFC Apex for a short but strong fight card in Las Vegas Nevada, which should have us all prepared for what’s coming as the prime MMA promotion is getting ready to showcase its talents.

The event will be headlined by two strong contenders in the middleweight division, as Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov get ready to prove who deserves to get a step closer to the next title shot.

Damir Ismagurov and Grant Dawson are going to be the co-main event in a lightweight clash to keep us entertained.

This fight night is a great way to get in touch with the rising talents in the UFC, as there are few veterans on the card, which means that everyone who tunes in is likely to catch up to speed with all those who are looking to make their name known as soon as possible.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in this fight.

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, June 24th, at 12:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Sean Strickland -151 / Abus Magomedov +119

Damir Ismagulov -114 / Grant Dawson -111

Max Griffin +191 / Michael Morales -250

Ariane Lipski +176 / Melissa Gatto -232

Benoit Saint-Denis +243 / Ismael Bonfim -333

Nursulton Ruziboev +156 / Brunno Ferreira -204

Kevin Lee +162 / Rinat Fakhretdinov -212

Yana Santos +132 / Karol Rosa -169

Ivana Petrović -232 / Luana Carolina +177

Anderson Brito -1428 / Westin Wilson +694

Alexandr Romanov +110 / Blagoy Ivanov -140

Guram Kutateladze -666 / Elves Brener +426

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov

Why Bet on Sean Strickland?

Things were going pretty well for Sean Strickland (26-5 MMA, 12-5 UFC) until he ran into Alex Pereira’s left hand. The high-ranking middleweight had thrown together a six-fight win streak that included the likes of Jack Hermansson, Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Brendan Allen.

Sure, most of those were sleepy decision wins, but hey, a win is a win. And more wins equals a higher ranking most of the time. On top of wins, Strickland is pretty well known at this point in the MMA world for saying completely outlandish and offensive things in interviews and at press conferences. But in the MMA world, that also kind of helps sometimes (sigh).

Why Bet on Abus Magomedov?

Before coming to the UFC, the Dagistani-born and German-based fighter already had 29 fights. Of his 25 wins, 14 have been by way of KO, and six have been by submission. That’s an 80 percent finish rate in his victories so far.

He also has at least 12 recorded first-rounded finishes, with nine of them coming within the first two minutes of the bout. His experience includes fairly successful short stints in PFL and KSW as well.

He was 3-1-1 in the PFL with a win over Sadibou Sy, who is currently the defending champion in the organization’s welterweight division. Magomedov was also 1-0 in KSW.

Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov Betting Analysis:

From a pure style matchup perspective, Magomedov is a live dog. Strickland prefers to fight behind his jab and finds it much tougher to do that when he doesn’t have a reach advantage. Not only does the first have a 2-inch reach advantage on the latter but his best weapons are his kicks which could hurt the boxing-heavy North American at range.

That said, we simply can’t back Magomedov at this price given the quality of his opponents. He had a draw against Gasan Umalatov at PFL in 2018 and Umalatov had gone just 1-3 in the UFC before getting cut. Then bounced back with a decision win against Sadibou Sy before getting starched in the first round by a 40-year-old MMA journeyman in Taylor.

Since then he has fought just three times, defeating Slavis Simeunovic in his MMA debut, beating Cezariusz Kesik who has dropped three of his last four KSW bouts, and knocking out Stoltzfus who is 1-4 in his last five.

Strickland has fought against the cream of the crop in the UFC and has picked up wins against ranked middleweights like Brendan Allen, Uriah Hall, Jack Hermansson, and Imavov. His only defeats at 185 pounds have come against Alex Pereira who is the hardest hitter in the division and No. 3 contender Jared Cannonier in what was an extremely competitive split decision. Expect the North American’s toughness, technical striking, and experience in main events to lead him to a victory here.

UFC Fight Night: Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson

Why Bet on Damir Ismagulov?

Ismagulov is a former 3-time M-1 lightweight champion with a ton of skills. If you are a champion in M-1, that means you have plenty of experience against some world-class competition. He is 32 years old and has an MMA record of 24-2 with 12 TKO/KO and 1 submission win.

The master of hand-to-hand combat in Russia takes quite the skillset into the UFC octagon. Ismagulov has averaged 3.78 sig. strikes landed and only 2.51 absorbed per minute in his UFC career so far. To go along with those striking numbers, he also averages 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and a solid 75% takedown defense.

Why Bet on Grant Dawson?

Dawson has quietly risen through the UFC ranks into the top 15 with no losses on his UFC record. With a black belt in BJJ under the blacklisted James Krause, he has found his new home at the American Top Team gym.

So far at only age 29 he has accumulated a record of 19-1-1 with 17 finishes–including 13 submissions. The Nebraskan native comes from a background of wrestling that seamlessly transferred over to starting martial arts training after high school.

Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson Betting Analysis:

This trend might be running out of steam, but it’s really easy to see Dawson grinding this fight out in the first two rounds and submitting Ismagulov.

Damir is the better striker with very solid defense and will probably potentially win the first two rounds on the scorecards. However, once Grant tires his opponents out, it seems inevitable that he will submit them under pressure in the final minutes. We expect this to happen and see Dawson taking one more last-moment victory.

UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales

Why Bet on Max Griffin?

Griffin is a veteran of the sport of MMA. He has been a double-champ at West Coast Fighting Championship at both welterweight and middleweight. He is currently 19-9 with 11 finishes in his professional MMA career.

The only time he was ever finished in a fight was his UFC debut against Colby Covington back in 2016. To go along with very good striking, he will also mix in level changes–leading him to have an average of 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Why Bet on Michael Morales?

Morales is one of the most exciting prospects on the UFC roster. At only 23 years old, he is 14-0 with 12 finishes so far in his professional career.

After earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, he has won both of his UFC fights via TKO. The dangerous striker has come all this way from Ecuador for this UFC career and doesn’t want to look back.

Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales Betting Analysis:

Even though Griffin is the underdog, his durability has been proven throughout his career, and the oddsmakers don’t think he can be finished by Morales. The latter is a TKO/KO specialist and he will certainly do whatever it takes to finish this fight inside the distance.

From the technical side of things, Max seems like the more polished striker. He might not have the same work output as his rival, but his striking is very sharp. Timing up those big right hands from Michael and countering back with his own will be the key to victory for him.

It’s tough to look past the hype of Morales, but something with the way Griffin is carrying himself puts a lot of confidence in this pick. He’s powerful and a much more calculated striker. Again, there is a possibility the Ecuatorian comes out swinging and clips him within the first minute. But the durability, counter-striking, and experience of the North American make for a great underdog pick in this one.

UFC Fight Night: Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto

Why Bet on Ariane Lipski?

Lipski has gone 2-3 in her last five fights and she needs to get back on track. Her most recent battle was a unanimous decision against JJ Aldrich back in March of this year. Her fighting resume shows that she has 15 wins that consist of six knockouts, three submissions, and six decisions.

Seven of her 15 victories have resulted in first-round finishes. In addition, she has four losses each by knockout and decision.

Why Bet on Melissa Gatto?

Gatto is coming off of a unanimous decision loss to Tracy Cortez back in May of last year. This was her first career defeat, ending her eight-fight win streak spanning back to late 2016.

Her fighting resume shows that she has eight wins that consist of two knockouts, four submissions, and two decisions. Meanwhile, four of her eight victories have resulted in first-round finishes.

Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto Betting Analysis:

Lipski’s slightly negative significant striking ratio will likely be the difference in this fight. She has some decent averages on the ground, but she primarily stays standing. Gatto usually attempts to fight on the ground with a few takedowns and a potential submission in each fight. She also has a good striking ratio that will help her win this fight by what we expect to be a slight edge in the decision.

UFC Fight Night: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Ismael Bonfim

Why Bet on Benoit Saint-Denis?

Saint-Denis is currently on a two-fight win streak heading into this battle. His most recent victory was a second-round TKO against Gabriel Miranda back in September of last year. His fighting resume shows that he has 10 wins that consist of two knockouts and eight submissions.

Five of his 10 wins have resulted in first-round finishes and his only loss has come by decision.

Why Bet on Ismael Bonfim?

Bonfim is aiming to extend his 13-fight winning streak with a victory here. His most recent win was a second-round knockout against Terrance McKinney back in January earlier this year. His fighting resume shows that he has 19 wins that consist of nine knockouts, four submissions, and six decisions.

Six of his 19 victories have resulted in first-round finishes. In addition, all three of his losses have come by submission.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Ismael Bonfim Betting Analysis:

Saint-Denis has a good start in the UFC, with a 2-1 record and two early finishes. If he takes this to the ground early, he has a great chance of ending it. The thing is that Bonfim understands his weaknesses on the ground. He will likely keep this fight standing, in which case he has an advantage, and it will allow him to get the victory. Ismael will likely avoid the ground and wear out Benoit to grind a decision.

UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Brunno Ferreira

Why Bet on Nursulton Ruziboev?

29-year-old Nursulton Ruziboev conquered regional promotions like Brave, Open Fighting Champion, and Octagon to catch the eye of the UFC. He is poised to make his debut while riding a long winning streak. “Black” made history in 2021 when he earned the first and only slam KO in the history of Brave promotion.

Following the feat against Ibrahim Mane, he won the KO of the Year award at the BRAVE CF 2021 awards. With a background in kickboxing and wrestling, his last loss was in 2019 via a unanimous decision. Last October, he bagged his eighth consecutive win with a first-round armbar of Pavel Masalski to win the WEF Middleweight championship. The debutant has not passed the first round in his last eight flights.

Why Bet on Brunno Ferreira?

“The Hulk” is s phenomenal talent. Unbeaten in ten professional fights, the Brazilian destroyed Gregory Rodrigues with a counter left four minutes into the first round of their fight at UFC 283 to announce himself on the biggest stage in the MMA world. That win last January brought him to 10-0, with the Curitiba, Parana-based fighter notching his tenth win and continuing the amazing stat of never going to the distance in his pro career.

The 30-year-old currently has seven KOs and three submissions on his resume.

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Brunno Ferreira Betting Analysis:

Ruziboev could likely stack 100 wins in his career at the rate he is going. His last opponent was a 12-12 record fighter and his first victory after a recent loss was against a 20-24 record opponent. The legitimacy of his skills will be put to the test here. Ferreira has solid UFC credentials already and aims to keep that going. Look for the minor upset here. On paper, Nursulton has great credentials, but he is slightly unproven at the moment.

UFC Fight Night: Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

Why Bet on Kevin Lee?

Kevin Lee (19-7) — who once put together a 9-1 run in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion — got his walking papers after a 1-4 skid. He then took his talents to Eagle FC, beating Diego Sanchez via unanimous decision in his only bout under that banner. This marks his first bout in nearly 16 months.

Why Bet on Rinat Fakhretdinov?

Fakhretdinov rode an eight-year, 14-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, which saw him grind his way past Andreas Michailidis. He was even more impressive his next time out, running roughshod over The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29 winner, Bryan Battle, for just his fourth professional decision win.

Eleven of his 17 professional finishes have come by knockout.

Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov Betting Analysis:

After hilariously underestimating Fakhretdinov ahead of the Battle fight, the matchup is just weighted so heavily in his favor that we just can’t pass him up.

Lee just hasn’t impressed at 170 pounds, being underwhelming against both Daniel Rodriguez and Diego Sanchez. His reliance on top control and tendency to fade are bad weaknesses to have against a larger, stronger wrestler, and even if that wrestler can’t hope to match Lee in terms of pure technique, Fakhretdinov’s top control looks stout enough to overpower Lee’s bottom game.

In the end, a fairly even start gives way to grappling dominance from “Gladiator” once Kevin starts to fade.

UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa

Why Bet on Yana Santos?

Yana Santos (14-7) rebounded from her unsuccessful UFC debut against Cris Cyborg by winning four of her next five bouts, among them an upset decision over Ketlen Vieira. She’s fought just twice in the last two years, falling to Irene Aldana and Holly Holm.

Why Bet on Karol Rosa?

Despite suffering through a bevy of fight cancelations, Rosa battled her way to a perfect (4-0) UFC start. She’s 1-2 since a decision over Lina Lansberg sandwiched between losses to Sara McMann and Norma Dumont. She steps in for Macy Chiasson on little more than one-week notice.

Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa Analysis:

The loss to McMann was understandable, as the veteran can beat any woman who weighs less than 145 pounds if she somehow gets her gears to mesh, but Rosa lost some shine by waiting until the third round to wake up against Dumont. This does look winnable, though; she’s more active than Santos on the feet and has some wrestling in her back pocket that should give “Foxy” issues.

Between Yana’s durability issues and inability to fight off her back, Karol has plenty of avenues to pursue. If she can keep her foot on the gas pedal, she’ll outwork Santos to a comfortable win.

UFC Fight Night: Ivana Petrović vs. Luana Carolina

Why Bet on Ivana Petrović?

Ivana Petrovic (6-0) enjoyed a 5-1 amateur career before turning professional in 2021. After a pair of wins on the European circuit, she joined France’s ARES FC, ultimately winning and defending its Flyweight title. She has knocked out three opponents and submitted another two.

Why Bet on Luana Carolina?

Luana Carolina (8-4) followed her successful Contender Series appearance with a 3-1 UFC start, including an upset of the heavily favored Lupita Godinez. The success wasn’t to last, as she dropped back-to-back bouts against Molly McCann and Joanne Wood.

Ivana Petrović vs. Luana Carolina Betting Analysis:

This is a very winnable debut for Petrovic, whose effective wrestling and excellent top control should serve her well against Carolina’s limited grappling, but her tendency to get dropped and Carolina’s output combine to present a real tripping hazard. Still, a whole lot is going her way, especially since she does some of her best work in the clinch and Luana isn’t particularly adept at keeping her distance.

Plus, Ivana’s striking has looked sharper of late, so she shouldn’t be out-classed on the feet. In the end, she takes down Carolina early and often, racking up ground and pound en route to a mid-round stoppage.

UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson

Why Bet on Joanderson Brito?

Joanderson Brito (14-3-1) saw his 12-fight unbeaten streak snapped by Bill Algeo in his UFC debut. Subsequent efforts proved more successful, as “Tubarao” dispatched Andre Fili and Lucas Alexander in less than three minutes combined and took home “Performance of the Night” against the former.

His professional finishes are split 7:5 between submissions and knockouts.

Why Bet on Westin Wilson?

Westin Wilson (16-7) — a training partner of Stephen Thompson — went 2-2 as an amateur before opening his professional career 10-6. He’s 6-1 since the lone loss coming to UFC veteran Teruto Ishihara in July 2022. He replaces the injured Khusein Askhabov on less than two weeks’ notice.

Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson Betting Analysis:

Brito is going to destroy this man. Wilson’s inability to manage distance earned him a knockout loss to Ishihara and will do the same against the hard-charging Brito if “Tubarao” elects to keep it standing.

That said, Joanderson is equally free to lean on his grappling, as his wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu far outstrip Westin. This is a human bulldozer against a deeply flawed regional fighter who consistently falls short against competent competition. Unless Brito elects to stick his neck in Wilson’s guillotine, he wins.

UFC Fight Night: Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Why Bet on Alexandr Romanov?

Alexandr Romanov (16-2) emerged as one of UFC’s more exciting Heavyweight newcomers with five straight Octagon victories, four of them inside the distance. Despite that momentum, “King Kong” fell apart down the stretch against Marcin Tybura in his first-ever defeat, then suffered a technical knockout loss at the hands of Alexander Volkov.

Fifteen of his 16 professional wins have come inside the distance, 10 of them via submission.

Why Bet on Blagoy Ivanov?

Blagoy Ivanov (19-5) racked up a perfect record (5-0) in the World Series of Fighting (WSOF)/Professional Fighter’s League (PFL), including a stint as Heavyweight champion before joining UFC in 2018. He currently sits at 3-4 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, most recently dropping a decision to Marcin Tybura in Feb. 2023.

Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov Betting Analysis:

Romanov is still just 32 years old — practically a child by modern Heavyweight standards —but that last fight was an unimaginably bad look. He ballooned up by at least 25 pounds from his previous bout and looked like he barely trained, folding at the first sign of adversity. While he has the tools to beat the older, slower, and smaller Ivanov, it’s an open question whether he still has the drive to use them properly.

That uncertainty has us leaning towards Ivanov, who for all his faults remains determined and borderline impossible to finish. Romanov enjoys a round or so of top control before getting dragged into Blagoy’s glacial pace and steadily out-worked in the last two rounds.

UFC Fight Night: Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener

Why Bet on Guram Kutateladze?

Guram Kutateladze (12-3) burst onto UFC’s scene by upsetting the debuting Mateusz Gamrot in their 2020 Fight of the Night. He’s fought just once since, losing a narrow split decision to Damir Ismagulov but withdrawing from four separate bouts.

He replaces Jordan Leavitt on short notice.

Why Bet on Elves Brener?

Elves Brener (14-3) opened his career undefeated (9-0) before losing three of his next five bouts, one of those to current Featherweight standout, Gabriel Santos. After picking up two straight wins, he joined UFC in Feb. 2023, debuting with a hugely controversial split decision over Zubaira Tukhugov.

The Chute Boxe Dhiego Lima-trained fighter boasts 11 wins via submission and one by knockout.

Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener Betting Analysis:

If Kutateladze makes it to the cage, which is far from a given, it’s hard to imagine him losing.

Both Gamrot and Ismagulov out-classed Brener in every aspect of the sport and Kutateladze held his own against them, while Elves needed horrendous officiating to get past an undersized and lethargic Tukhugov.

Barring inhuman improvement on Brener’s part in these last few months, Kutateladze should have a little issue keeping it on the feet and taking apart the Brazilian. Indeed, he flattens him within five minutes.