UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on October 12, 2023 8:32 pm by Erwin Noguera

Once again, we are heading to Las Vegas, Nevada’s UFC Apex, to witness another exciting fight night in the most famous octagon in the world.

For the Event Headliner, we are getting an exciting clash between a rising talent and a seasoned veteran, as Sodiq Yusuff comes to test himself against the always-dangerous Edson Barboza for a Featherweight bout.

The co-main event has the female Flyweights in the spotlight, as Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo clash on the Octagon as they try to make their way towards a title fight.

All of the main event clashes seem to be quite exciting, but things are especially interesting as we look towards the clash between the Mexican, Edgar Chairez, and the Brazilian Daniel Lacerda after their clash last month became a controversial subject when the Submission finish by Chairez was over-turned into a No-Contest by the Commission on the Spot.

With this being such a polarizing outcome, and both fighters going out in perfect shape from an early “finish”, they took a few days short of a month to run the fight back and put an end to their unfinished business.

This event has 6 main event clashes and 6 prelims, which should keep all the fans excited and hyped as we get closer and closer to the main event bout.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

When:

Saturday, October 14th, at 4:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Sodiq Yusuff -166 / Edson Barboza +130

Jennifer Maia -161 / Viviane Araujo +126

Jonathan Martinez -121 / Adrian Yanez -105

Michel Pereira -192 / Andre Petroski +149

Edgar Cháirez -322 / Daniel Lacerda +240

Christian Rodriguez -158 / Cameron Saaiman +124

Darren Elkins +153 / TJ Brown -196

Tainara Lisboa -344 / Ravena Oliveira +252

Terrance McKinney -526 / Brendon Marotte +349

Irina Alekseeva +119 / Melissa Dixon -151

Chris Gutierrez -384 / Alatengheili +277

Ashley Yoder +286 / Emily Ducote -400

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza

Why Bet on Sodiq Yusuff?

Yusuff has been nearly flawless in his seven UFC bouts, going 6-1 with the lone setback coming against underrated 145-pounder Arnold Allen. Sodiq has a couple of knockouts and a submission in that stretch, although he’s primarily fought opponents that would be termed “gatekeepers” –names such as Andre Fili and Alex Caceres — in his two best wins to date.

Why Bet on Edson Barboza?

Set to turn 38 years of age next January, Barboza snapped a brief two-fight losing streak with a vicious knockout of Billy Quarantillo in April. He’d lost five of seven prior bouts, but it’s worth noting all of those defeats — Bryce Mitchell, Giga Chikadze, Dan Ige, Paul Felder, Justin Gaethje — came against quality competition.

Edson’s athleticism has waned, and his durability is a major question mark, but he still hits hard and remains capable of putting an opponent out in an instant, as we saw in the Billy Q fight.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza Final Betting Analysis:

The main event of UFC Vegas 81 should be a banger for however long it lasts.

Both Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza want to keep it standing and will trade strikes. Yusuff is coming off a year-long layoff, which happens to him quite often. Barboza, meanwhile, picked up a massive KO win over Billy Quarantillo back in May.

We expect this fight to look a lot like Barboza’s main event fight against Giga Chikadze, as Yusuff will be the faster striker and will have the cardio advantage. Barboza will have some moments early on, but Sodiq will eventually get a TKO win in the third or fourth round as the Brazilian starts to slow down.

UFC Fight Night: Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo

Why Bet on Jennifer Maia?

Now 35 years old, few women on the UFC roster have been as inconsistent as Maia. She’s 6-5 with the UFC, although most of the wins have come against lesser competition. Her unanimous decision victory over Casey O’Neill in her most recent fight this past March was arguably her best performance to date.

Maia can probably remain somewhat relevant for a while given she competes in arguably the thinnest division in the company, but we’re not overly optimistic about her long-term outlook.

Why Bet on Viviane Araujo?

Araujo looked great early in her tenure with the company, winning four of her first five, again, against lesser competition. It’s all fallen apart of late, with three losses in her past four fights, including back-to-back setbacks to Amanda Ribas and Alexa Grasso.

The Grasso defeat doesn’t look all that bad right now. In a strange twist, Araujo was due to face O’Neill a couple of weeks ago before the latter pulled out, Maia stepped in, and the fight was pushed back to this event.

Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo Final Betting Analysis:

In many ways, the fighting style of these two mirrors one another. Both have plenty of volume on their feet and possess poor stand-up defense. Both can be dragged into a brawl at a moment’s notice and it often doesn’t end well. Araujo will enter with a four-inch reach edge despite the two women being the same height.

The greatest edge either woman possesses comes in the form of Araujo’s grappling. Jennifer has found herself on the mat against opponents such as Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian, who typically have no grappling game whatsoever.

Likely in need of a win to save her job, Araujo would be wise to just lean on her wrestling in an attempt to secure a boring decision. All that matters is that she emerges victorious, by any means necessary.

We are just worried that Araujo is going to get overwhelmed on her feet if she isn’t able to take Maia down. Her striking defense is quite poor, which makes us lean towards Jennifer for this one.

UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. TJ Brown

Why Bet on Darren Elkins?

An uninspiring 1-1 UFC start saw Darren Elkins (28-11) beat Duane Ludwig via ankle injury and tap to a Charles Oliveira armbar in less than 1:30 combined, but he quickly caught fire with a 13-3 run over the next eight years. “The Damage” now sits at 3-6 in his last nine bouts, most recently dropping a decision to Jonathan Pearce in Dec. 2022.

Why Bet on TJ Brown?

A slick arm triangle of Dylan Lockard on Contender Series earned TJ Brown (17-1) his fourth straight finish and a UFC contract. He enters the cage this Saturday 3-4 in the world’s largest fight promotion, including a submission loss to Bill Algeo last time out.

Ten of his 13 professional finishes have come by submission.

Darren Elkins vs. TJ Brown Final Betting Analysis:

Brown has enough going his way that installing him as the favorite, as the bookies did, isn’t unreasonable. He’s got less mileage on him than Elkins and a far superior striking game that could very feasibly put the shopworn veteran down for the count.

The way we see it, though, this is a fight between someone who’s defined by finding ways to win and someone who’s defined by finding ways to lose.

We know Elkins can power through adversity like nobody’s business, while Brown is notoriously prone to falling apart even in winnable matchups.

Even if Brown does have the standup to shred Elkins the way Cub Swanson did, he’s just as liable to repeatedly bumble his way into bottom position. Brown’s fragility, inconsistency, and woeful takedown defense give Elkins all the tools he needs to grind out another upset win.

UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez

Why Bet on Jonathan Martinez?

Martinez has very quietly won five in a row and seven of his past eight. Included in that stretch are wins over Said Nurmagomedov and Cub Swanson, so it’s not as if he’s padding his record by beating up nobodies.

Of course, there’s a real case to be made Martinez didn’t deserve the decision against Nurmagomedov, but he fought pretty well regardless. The 29-year-old Los Angeles native is a fringe top-15 guy in arguably the deepest division in the company.

Why Bet on Adrian Yanez?

Yanez earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series in August 2020. He then went on to win his first five fights with the UFC, including four via knockout, before getting viciously finished by Rob Font on the main card of a pay-per-view this past April.

Yanez was a -185 favorite in that one, and it was a performance that halted all the momentum he had been gaining over the past handful of fights.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez Final Betting Analysis:

Yanez’s issue is that he’s a one-dimensional brawler. He hits hard, but he’s the type that is willing to eat two strikes to land two of his own. As we saw in the Font fight, that becomes a problem against better competition. He offers nothing in the grappling game, having never landed a takedown in his UFC run. To his credit, however, he hasn’t been taken down either.

Martinez is a better all-around fighter. Not as dynamic, and unable to match Yanez in the power department, but also without any significant weaknesses. We trust him to have a superior game plan, which could easily be the difference in a bout that projects to be as close as this one.

Yanez’s explosiveness is intriguing, but the Font performance was a big red flag, I like Martinez as he’s just a more refined fighter — something that could make all the difference.

UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Andre Petroski

Why Bet on Michel Pereira?

The UFC’s patience with Pereira has to be wearing thin despite the fact he’s won five straight. He was due to face Stephen Thompson at UFC 291 in late July but missed weight by three pounds.

Wonderboy, as is his right, refused to step into the Octagon. It’s the second time during the Brazilian’s run with the company that he has come in heavy.

Why Bet on Andre Petroski?

It seems like a worthy risk for Andre, who has won five in a row to begin his stint with the company. The first three came via stoppage, while the last two came via decision.

We’ve been impressed with what we have seen from Petroski. He looks like a confident, all-around fighter with no significant weaknesses in his game.

Michel Pereira vs. Andre Petroski Final Betting Analysis:

Pereira has big-time power. Michel is more precise and technical than Petroski, as well, and should have a distinct advantage whenever this fight is on the feet. He is an underrated wrestler, that averages 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a ridiculous 55 percent of his attempts. That last number suggests he reads situations very well and recognizes the opportunities to get his opposition to the ground.

That said, going to the mat with Petroski is not a recipe for success. He’s averaging a ridiculous 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pereira’s takedown defense — a stellar 94 percent to date — must again be on point if he is to emerge victorious here.

The Pereira weight-cutting issues are a concern. Petroski also has world-class skills in his wrestling game. If he has troubles on the scale because he accepted this fight on such late notice, all bets are off, but otherwise, we’ll roll with Andre Petroski to decide to win with superior wrestling.

UFC Fight Night: Edgar Cháirez vs. Daniel Lacerda

Why Bet on Edgar Cháirez?

Edgar Cháirez (10-5-1) put his unsuccessful Contender Series bid behind him with a pair of submission wins, the latter of which earned him both Fury FC gold and viral infamy when the referee failed to recognize that he’d choked Gianni Vazquez unconscious.

He then stepped up to battle top prospect Tatsuro Taira on short notice, whom Cháirez dropped in the first round but failed to put away in the last seconds en route to a decision loss.

The first Lacerda fight was in our eyes, a display of domination before the controversial results.

Why Bet on Daniel Lacerda?

‘Miojo’ entered the Octagon in 2021 at 11-1, his sole loss a freak injury stoppage two years prior. He’s yet to claim his first UFC victory, suffering four consecutive stoppage losses, but taking home the ‘Fight of the Night’ prize for his March 2023 brawl with C.J. Vergara.

Lacerda hasn’t made it to the third round in any fight and has been finished in rounds one or two in all four. He was well on his way to being finished before a very fortunate determination was made in his favor.

Edgar Cháirez vs. Daniel Lacerda Final Betting Analysis:

Once again, we are backing Cháirez in the rematch against Daniel Lacerda. These two fought back in September, and Edgar won by submission in the first round, but it was overturned to a No Contest due to what the commission thought was the ref stopping it early (We do not think this was the case, as he checked Lacerda’s hands 3 times before the stoppage, but you get it, it became controversial quickly).

However, Cháirez was dominating that fight clearly, and Lacerda only had about five minutes of cardio to work with. The former will go out there and wrestle the latter early to, likely, get another submission win here.

UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman

Why Bet on Christian Rodriguez?

Rodriguez is an American mixed martial artist coming from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, with a professional record of 9-1 with three TKO wins and four submissions at the age of 25.

‘CeeRod’ averages 2.99 significant strikes landed and 1.73 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. Something to note is that he’s weighed in over the contracted limit twice under the UFC banner.

Why Bet on Cameron Saaiman?

Saaiman is an exciting South African mixed martial arts prospect with a professional record of 9-0 with six TKO/KO wins and one submission under his belt. At only the age of 22, Saaiman has gone 3-0 in the UFC with two TKOs after earning his contract with the company at Dana White’s Contender Series last year.

MSP has put together some very impressive numbers in the UFC, including averages of 5.41 significant strikes landed and only 2.48 absorbed per minute.

Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman Final Betting Analysis:

Christian Rodriguez and Cameron Saaiman are two highly-touted prospects at bantamweight and are already fighting early into their UFC careers, which makes this one of the best bouts on the card.

Saaiman has looked impressive so far, as he is a great striker who has won two of his three fights by stoppage. However, one knock on him is his takedown defense and ability to be controlled, which Rodriguez does so well.

Rodriguez’s lone loss in his career was on short notice up a weight class against Jonathan Pearce, and he nearly won that fight. I expect Christian to come out and wrestle early and often to control Cameron and win a clear-cut decision. Saaiman’s takedown defense is just 41 percent, which is a concern here in this matchup and why we like Rodriguez to get the win.

UFC Fight Night: Tainara Lisboa vs. Ravena Oliveira

Why Bet on Tainara Lisboa?

Three consecutive finishes earned Tainara Lisboa (6-2) a 2023 UFC debut against Jessica-Rose Clark. There, “Thai Panther” showed off her versatility by out-classing Clark on the feet before putting her away with a third-round rear-naked choke.

She’s knocked out and submitted three opponents apiece.

Why Bet on Ravena Oliveira?

Ravena Oliveira (7-1-1) put a 0-1-1 pro start behind her to win each of her next seven bouts inside the distance. She ended a 17.5-month layoff with a quick knockout in July 2023, then scored another finish less than 30 days later.

‘Kenoudy’ replaces Darya Zheleznyakova on around one month’s notice.

Tainara Lisboa vs. Ravena Oliveira Final Betting Analysis:

The most recent footage we’ve found of Oliveira comes from January 2022, and if what we saw is in any way indicative of her current abilities, she’s toast. Lisboa is by far the faster, cleaner, and more powerful boxer of the two.

Though Oliveira does have a functional clinch to lean on if things get ugly, Lisboa’s grappling success against Clark suggests that “Thai Panther” can hold her own there as well.

We’d like to see Lisboa face a high-level grappler before touting her as the next big thing in a talent-starved division, but we can confidently say she’s levels above Oliveira. Rapid-fire punches carry her to a dominant stoppage win.

UFC Fight Night: Terrance McKinney vs. Brendon Marotte

Why Bet on Terrance McKinney?

After bursting onto the UFC scene with two finishes in less than 2:30 combined, Terrance McKinney (14-6) found himself in a 1-3 hole. Eager for redemption, he made a one-month turnaround after his most recent defeat and took just 85 seconds to stop Mike Breeden.

All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, eight of them via submission.

Why Bet on Brendon Marotte?

Fighting out of the New England Cartel alongside Calvin Kattar and Rob Font, Brendon Marotte (8-1) battled to a 6-1 professional start before spending three years on the sidelines. He’s made up for lost time in 2023 with a pair of finishes, the last of which came less than two months ago.

He steps in for Chris Duncan on six days’ notice.

Terrance McKinney vs. Brendon Marotte Final Betting Analysis:

Combat Zone, where Marotte has spent the bulk of his career, inexplicably decided to stop publishing fight footage at some point. As a result, it’s hard for us to speak about Marotte’s current abilities, as we can just use what he showed in a January 2020 split decision over Dan Dubuque. Considering how much punishment he took in that fight thanks to leaky defense, we don’t like his chances.

Marotte responds poorly to pressure and relies on takedowns to bail him out of danger, habits a heavy-handed wrestler like McKinney should smash straight through. ‘T. Wrecks blitzes his way to another quick finish.

UFC Fight Night: Irina Alekseeva vs. Melissa Dixon

Why Bet on Irina Alekseeva?

Sixteen months after winning her Bellator debut, Irina Alekseeva (5-1) stepped into the Octagon to face Stephanie Egger. Though she missed weight by four pounds, she emerged victorious thanks to a first-round rolling kneebar.

“Russian Ronda” will be the taller woman by an inch.

Why Bet on Melissa Dixon?

Melissa Dixon (5-0) enjoyed a nine-fight amateur career before scoring a first-round finish in her 2021 professional debut. Then came a four-fight, four-win 2022, capped off by a comeback technical knockout of then-unbeaten Darya Zheleznyakova.

Three of her professional wins — and all five of her amateur wins — have come via strikes.

Irina Alekseeva vs. Melissa Dixon Final Betting Analysis:

In a battle of eager sluggers with strong grappling backgrounds, I favor Dixon. Her takedown defense was on point against another solid judoka in Rizlen Zouak — and even though ‘No Mess Mullins’ is alarmingly hittable — she’s durable enough and Alekseeva sloppy enough on the feet that she shouldn’t get in too much trouble before getting her wrestling going.

If Alekseeva had actual power, she’d have a shot of clipping Dixon, but the fact that the much sharper Zheleznyakova couldn’t put Dixon away suggests that Alekseeva can’t, either.

In the end, Dixon’s top control carries her to a debut victory.

UFC Fight Night: Chris Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili

Why Bet on Chris Gutierrez?

Undaunted by a loss to Raoni Barcelos in his late-notice UFC debut, Chris Gutierrez (19-4-2) worked his way into Bantamweight contention with an eight-fight unbeaten streak.

His efforts made him a favorite over Pedro Munhoz in April 2023, only for “The Young Punisher” to out-strike “El Guapo” en route to a clean sweep on the scorecards.

He steps in for Rani Yahya on short notice.

Why Bet on Alatengheili?

Alatengheili (16-8-2) started his UFC run with back-to-back wins over Danaa Batgerel and Ryan Benoit but hit a 0-1-1 rut thanks to Casey Kenney and Gustavo Lopez. Undeterred, he quickly scored a sub-minute knockout of Kevin Croom and a decision win over Chad Anheliger.

“The Mongolian Knight” fights for the first time in 13 months.

Chris Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili Final Betting Analysis:

It’s hard to overstate how much more favorable a matchup this is for Gutierrez. Jackson is a colossal, heavy-handed slugger with the reach and wrestling skills to punish Gutierrez’s low kicks.

Alatengheili has a bomb of a right hand and decent wrestling of his own. He is, however, painfully passive in the cage.

Though Alatengheili has the power to spark Gutierrez, who’s had issues with aggressive punchers before, we can’t trust him to keep his foot on the gas. He’ll give Gutierrez far more room to operate than Jackson would have, which is a death sentence against an extremely adept kicker.

The inordinate toughness Alatengheili showed against Kenney will keep him on his feet for 15 minutes as Gutierrez takes him apart with low kicks.

UFC Fight Night: Ashley Yoder vs. Emily Ducote

Why Bet on Ashley Yoder?

Ashley Yoder (8-8) — a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 — struggled her way to a 0-3 UFC start before putting together back-to-back wins. The Spider Monkey has since dropped four of five, among them a decision to Jinh Yu Frey in July 2021.

This marks her first bout in over two years, as injury bounced her from a January 2022 clash with Vanessa Demopoulos.

Why Bet on Emily Ducote?

Emily Ducote (12-8) claimed Invicta gold with a gnarly head kick of Danielle Taylor, then stopped Alesha Zappitella in her inaugural defense. She kicked off her UFC campaign with a decision over fellow Invicta vet Jessica Penna, only to lose her next two to Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez.

Her professional finishes are split 3:4 between knockouts and submissions.

Ashley Yoder vs. Emily Ducote Final Betting Analysis:

Though she hit her ceiling faster than expected, it’s hard to picture Ducote losing this. Her boxing is in another universe compared to Yoder’s and her takedown defense both skunked Penne and held Godinez, a powerhouse wrestler, to just 13 seconds of control time through three rounds.

Yoder’s strong submission game has always been hamstrung by weak wrestling and striking; she can coast on grit at times, but that’s nowhere near enough to bridge the gap here. Ducote tears her apart on the feet for either a 30-27 or mercy stoppage.