Premios de mitad de temporada de la NFL: Elecciones al MVP, OPOY y DPOY

Last Updated on noviembre 3, 2026 7:58 pm by Erwin Noguera

Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favourite at +165. Among the five quarterbacks with a serious case, he ranks third in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, fourth in completion percentage, and fifth in passer rating.

He ranks first in yards per attempt; he has nine rushing touchdowns, and Buffalo are 6-1 with the highest-scoring offence in football. That is a real case, and it is the one the market has bought.

It is not the one we would vote for.Joe Burrow, in the same seven games, has thrown for 322 more yards and nine more touchdowns, at a completion percentage 7.1 points higher and a passer rating 10.5 points higher.

Here are our three picks at the halfway point, the numbers behind them, and the one candidate whose season ended on Sunday with the best rate statistics in the league.

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The MVP Board

Prices are published after Week 8, and they differ by book more than usual.

Josh Allen is listed at +140, +165, and +175 depending on where you look, an implied range of 36.4% to 41.7%. Brock Purdy appears at +270 and +450. Joe Burrow at +475. Caleb Williams at +500. Trevor Lawrence at +850. Patrick Mahomes at +900.One prediction market has Allen at 31% and Purdy at 26%.

Shop this one. A +140 and a +175 on the same player is a five-point difference in implied probability.

MVP: Joe Burrow

All five have played seven games. That is what makes the comparison usable.

Burrow leads the league in passing touchdowns with 20 and leads this group in yards and completion percentage.Seventy-three percent is the best figure among every quarterback with more than 300 attempts that we checked, and 2,115 yards in seven games is a 5,136-yard pace across seventeen.

The case for Allen is the case for Allen every year.Eleven passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns is twenty total, and 270 rushing yards from a quarterback changes how a defence has to be built.His 8.75 yards per attempt leads the group; Buffalo scores 33.29 points a game (the most in the NFL by more than four over Detroit’s 29.00) and they are 6-1.Voters reward that combination, and they are not wrong to.

But the gap in the passing column is too large to wave through.Nine touchdowns and 322 yards in identical playing time, with a ten-point rating edge, is not a rounding difference.Allen’s twenty total touchdowns against Burrow’s twenty-two means the rushing production does not even close the scoring gap.

Two honest caveats on our own pick.Buffalo has a better record than Cincinnati, 6-1 against 5-2, and MVP voting has always been partly a team award.And Brock Purdy has the highest QBR in the league among quarterbacks who have played all season at 79.19; on a 6-1 team with the second-best point differential in football at plus fifty-eight, he is the candidate most likely to win this if Burrow’s team slips.

Our vote: Joe Burrow.Our expectation: Josh Allen wins it.

One note on method, because we wrote a rule two days ago.On Monday we committed to taking the model rather than arguing with it whenever a projection and a betting market disagree by more than four points on a game outcome.This is not that.An awards market prices what voters will do, not what the underlying performance has been, so disagreeing with it is a judgement about voters, not a bet against a projection. We are flagging the distinction rather than hoping nobody notices it.

OPOY: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

985 receiving yards in eight games. The second-placed receiver has 726.

This is the least controversial pick on the page.

Smith-Njigba is averaging 123.1 receiving yards a game (a 2,093-yard pace over seventeen games) with 64 catches and nine touchdowns. He leads the league in receiving yards by 259, in receptions by four, and in receiving touchdowns by three.

And he has done it on a 4-4 team that scores 23.13 a game.Seattle beat Kansas City 20-3 with Smith-Njigba catching nine for 150; they lost 34-17 to Chicago with him catching six for 118.The production has been independent of the result, which is the definition of an individual award.

The running backs deserve a paragraph because the race is tighter there than the receiving one.Bijan Robinson leads in rushing yards with 780, but Jahmyr Gibbs has 773 in one fewer game (110.4 a game against Robinson’s 97.5) with eight touchdowns to Robinson’s four.Kenneth Walker III has 770 in seven games at 5.46 a carry.Jaylen Warren leads all of them in yards per carry at 5.92.

If you want a non-receiver, take Gibbs on the per-game figure.D’Andre Swift has the most rushing touchdowns in the league with ten.None of them is within reach of 985 yards.

DPOY: Will Anderson Jr.

Anderson and Watt are tied on sacks. Anderson has done it in one fewer game and leads the league in tackles for loss.

Eleven and a half tackles for loss is two clear of Watt and the best figure in football.Anderson’s 1.07 sacks a game is an 18.2-sack pace over seventeen; Watt’s 0.94 projects to 15.9.Anderson also has 33 tackles to Watt’s 19, which for an edge rusher is a measure of how often he is in the right place rather than just how often he finishes.

The argument against him is the record.Houston is 2-5.Watt plays for a 6-2 Pittsburgh side that concedes 18.0 points a game, third-fewest in the league, and voters notice that.This is the same bias we just described in the MVP section, applied one award down.

We will take the player, not the team.Anderson has the better rate, the better supporting number, and the harder circumstances.We also note that CBS Sports recommended him for this award before the season began, which is worth acknowledging; that call looks correct, and it was not ours.

Two more names that belong in the conversation.Alex Singleton has 101 tackles for Denver, twenty clear of second place and a 215-tackle pace.Amani Hooker has five interceptions, two more than anybody else, for a Tennessee team that is 1-7.Minnesota, who concede 13.29 points a game (the best mark in the league by two and a half), have two players in the top seven for sacks in Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner, which is an argument that their defence has no single candidate because it does not need one.

The Candidate Whose Season Ended on Sunday

Lamar Jackson has the best quarterback rating in the National Football League at 118.4 and the best QBR at 86.62.

He has played five games.He hurt his thumb on his first snap against Buffalo, needs surgery, is going on injured reserve, and Jesse Minter has said the injury could end his season.

In those five games: 967 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, 70.1% completion, and 9.97 yards per attempt, the highest figure of any quarterback we examined, by well over a yard.

He is not eligible for a serious midseason vote, and we are not casting one for him.We are recording the numbers because the most efficient quarterback in football this season will finish it with no recognition and roughly a third of a season played, and because Baltimore have gone from plus two to minus twenty-four in the week since he went down.

The Three Picks

MVP: Joe Burrow. Twenty passing touchdowns, 73.0% completion, a 111.6 rating, in seven games. Josh Allen is the favourite and will probably win.

Offensive Player of the Year: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 985 yards, 259 clear of the field, on a .500 team.

Defensive Player of the Year: Will Anderson Jr. Tied for the sack lead in one fewer game, with the most tackles for loss in the NFL, on a 2-5 team.

The common thread is that all three picks ignore team record, and the voting will not.Burrow’s team is 5-2 behind Allen’s 6-1. Smith-Njigba’s is 4-4. Anderson’s is 2-5.Every one of our three choices is the harder vote, and we would rather state the reasoning and be overruled than pick the favourite and call it analysis.

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