Premier League: Early Title Race Check

Last Updated on octubre 6, 2026 7:05 pm by Erwin Noguera

Manchester City are top of the Premier League. Five matches, five wins, nobody has taken a point off them, and they are three clear.

They are prized around 4/1 to win the title. Arsenal, in second, are +120.

The team leading the Premier League with a perfect record is three-to-four times longer than the team chasing it. That is the title race going into this weekend, and it is a stranger picture than the table alone suggests.

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Nothing has been decided on the pitch since 20 September. The extended September-October international break has kept the table frozen for a fortnight, and the Premier League returns on Saturday with Matchweek 6.

The Table at the Pause

The Market Says Arsenal, and the Table Says City

Arsenal is +120 to retain the title. Manchester City is around 4/1. Liverpool is 12/1.

Those prices describe a different season from the one that has been played. Arsenal has lost a match (beaten 3-0 at Brighton) and sits three points behind a City side that has not dropped a point.

Three explanations sit behind that gap, and they are worth separating.

Arsenal are the defending champions, and markets are slow to move off a title-winning squad. That is the largest single factor and the least interesting one.

City has a new manager. Enzo Maresca was appointed on 29 June, replacing Pep Guardiola after ten years and twenty trophies, and he has never managed a title defense, a European campaign or a domestic cup run at the same time. The bookmakers are pricing the untested middle of a season rather than the first five matches of one.

And there is the regulatory position. An independent commission reportedly found City liable on 114 of 115 charges on 25 September, during the break. No sanction has been set up; the club denies wrongdoing and has appealed, and nothing applies to this season. But a pending decision of unknown size is a risk the football alone does not describe, and it is reasonable to assume some part of the price reflects it.

What it does not reflect is anything that has happened in a match.

Manchester City: Perfect and Barely Tested

Thirteen scored, five conceded, +8.

City have won five from five while integrating an almost entirely new midfield and half a new attack. Elliot Anderson arrived for £116 million and Enzo Fernández for £125 million, breaking the club record twice in one window after Rodri joined Barcelona and Bernardo Silva and John Stones left on free transfers.

The caution is in the defensive column. Five goals conceded in five matches looks excellent until you notice three of them came in one afternoon: the 5-3 win over a Sunderland side sitting fourteenth.

And the fixtures have been kind. City have not yet played Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool or Chelsea. That changes on Sunday.

Brighton Have the Best Numbers in England

Sixteen goals scored, five conceded, a goal difference of +11; better than Manchester City’s.

We underrated Brighton for two articles before they beat Arsenal 3-0 and we said so. They are third on ten points, and in the underlying figures they have been the best team in the division.

Ten points from fifteen is the gap between performance and return, and gaps like that close in one direction or the other. Brighton travels to Sunderland on Saturday.

The Four Clubs on Nine Points

Brentford, Leeds, Liverpool, and Everton are all on nine, and three of the four are unbeaten.

Brentford, Leeds, and Everton have each drawn three of five: the same shape, the same problem. Difficult to beat, and difficult to climb.

Liverpool are the outlier and the underachiever. Nine points with three draws and seven goals scored is not a title defense profile, and at 12/1 they are a long way back in a market that still rates their squad. They host Manchester City on Sunday, which is either the start of their season or the end of their title chances.

The Fixture That Restarts Everything

Liverpool v Manchester City, Anfield, Sunday 11 October.

This is the first meeting between two of the division’s biggest clubs and the first genuine test of City’s start. Liverpool is sixth and needs it more; City are top and have not faced anybody above tenth.

Elsewhere in Matchweek 6: Arsenal hosts Leeds, Brighton travel to Sunderland, and Manchester United host Tottenham at Old Trafford: twelfth against bottom, between two clubs on five and two points respectively.

What to Watch?

Whether City’s defense holds against a real attack. Five conceded in five, three of them in one game, against opposition that has not included a top six side.

Whether Arsenal start scoring. Eight goals in five is the lowest total in the top seven and the clearest flaw in the favorite.

Whether Brighton’s +11 turns into points. Third, on ten with the best goal difference in England is not a stable position.

And whether the market moves. City are top, unbeaten, and the longer price. One result at Anfield on Sunday will tell you whether that was wisdom or inertia.