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Last Updated on noviembre 12, 2026 1:55 pm by Joey Nudillos
Resumen del episodio
Your weekly NFL Week 10 2026 picks from Matt Ross and Dan Nedelko are here! A desperate Patriots team in Munich, a 49ers road test in Dallas, and a Sunday night Bengals-Steelers clash headline the NFL Week 10 2026 picks in Episode 117 of The House Never Wins. Matt Ross and Dan Nedelko, COO of TSMx.io, also settle last week’s ledger, break down how fair market odds and vig actually work in a new Dan’s Market Primer, and close with NBA Cup bets. The show is powered by TSMx.io, the peer-to-peer sports exchange, and Matt reminds viewers that the hosts do not sell picks and that this is entertainment. Players must be 21 or older, and Matt shares the 1-800-GAMBLER line.
Last Week’s Ledger Check
Dan opens by describing a brutal early Week 9 slate in which nearly every game was 3-0 at the end of the first quarter, with field goals everywhere and very little quality football. Matt adds that it was another week of major injuries, especially at quarterback.
- Ravens at Jaguars (Thursday): The game was effectively over from the start, with the Ravens in disarray. Dan jokes that the producers’ ledger shows he picked Baltimore, a pick he does not remember making.
- Bengals over Falcons in Madrid: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were a joy to watch, and Matt says Burrow is now in the MVP conversation. Dan notes that Justin Jefferson looks unhappy in Minnesota with no chemistry at quarterback.
- Saints 23, Browns 22 in overtime: Dan calls it ugly from top to bottom, a loss for both teams, with both rookie quarterbacks still finding their footing. Neither team made a move at the Tuesday trade deadline.
- Cowboys over Colts: Both hosts had Dallas. The Colts traded away several players at the deadline, and Dallas barely won.
- Broncos 26, Panthers 21: Matt took the Panthers and lost, though he admits he is charmed by them. Dan says Carolina is scrappy and caught Denver off guard. Rookie running back Coleman is giving the Broncos extra juice.
- Lions over Dolphins by 10: Detroit held Miami to nine points but scored under 20 itself, which Matt calls a yellow flag. With Malik Willis on injured reserve, third-stringer Kyle McCord is now Miami’s starter. Dan says the Lions remind him of the Megatron-era teams, with inconsistent offense and a porous defense.
Matt reports the hosts went 13-2 in last week’s rapid fire. Highlights include the Rams beating the Commanders by seven, even though Puka Nacua is now on injured reserve and the Rams are 5-4. The Giants beat the Eagles by eight, their first win in Philadelphia in 13 years according to Dan, who had New York on the moneyline. Dan also hit the over in Chiefs 35, Jets 12 (47 total points against a TSMx total of 41.5) and 49ers 38, Raiders 17 (55 total points against a TSMx total of 46.5). The one miss was the Bears at -3.5, who won by only three as Caleb Williams threw four interceptions. Dan credits Williams for standing by his gunslinger style afterward.
Dan’s Market Primer: Fair Odds, Implied Probability and Vig
Dan uses the Bills and Jets game to explain how fair market odds work. On TSMx, the moneyline sits near Bills -450 and Jets +350. Convert those to percentages and they come to roughly 82 percent and 18 percent, which add up to 100 percent, exactly as a fair market should. A negative American number signals greater confidence, and a positive number signals less.
He then compares that to a standard sportsbook. On the FanDuel spread, -110 on both sides adds up to roughly 104.8 percent. The extra 4.8 percent is the vig, which every bettor pays on every wager whether they win or lose. By contrast, TSMx charges only a 3 percent commission on winning wagers, and nothing on losing ones. Dan also points out that Polymarket and Kalshi have raised their rates and that traditional books limit winners and reward big losers with VIP status.
The segment ends with an arbitrage example. FanDuel had the Bills and Jets total at 50.5, while TSMx had it at 46.5. A bettor could take the over at 46.5 on TSMx and the under at 50.5 elsewhere, and profit from the gap. Dan welcomes that kind of trading activity. He also reminds users that every order still needs a counterparty, so TSMx lets them share an order link with friends by text, Discord, or iMessage.
NFL Week 10 2026 Picks: Patriots vs. Lions in Munich
The Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs at bet365, as low as 1.5 on TSMx, with a total of 51.5 against 48.5 on TSMx. The game kicks off at 9:30 AM ET in Munich. Matt takes New England, saying it is a desperate season-on-the-line spot, that Mike Vrabel has been there before, and that A.J. Brown is traveling to Germany after missing last week. Matt calls Friday’s practice the key signal for Brown. Dan is skeptical. He thinks the Patriots got exposed last week and reached last year’s Super Bowl on a hope and a prayer. He agrees the game could be high scoring, since neither defense is strong, and he takes the over, and he would price a make order aggressively at roughly -150.
NFL Week 10 2026 Picks: Chiefs at Falcons
Kansas City is only a 3.5-point favorite at bet365, and Atlanta is on a short turnaround after playing in Spain with no bye. Matt says he would take the Chiefs at -6.5, and he notes Kansas City just acquired Josh Downs from the Colts and that Mahomes got banged up this week. Dan agrees that -6.5 is warranted and thinks bookmakers are playing it close to the vest after getting hurt by last week’s upsets. On the total of 45.5, both lean under. Dan expects at least 32 points from the Chiefs and does not trust Penix, and Matt does not see Atlanta scoring more than 10. The TSMx feature that lets users select their own spread value, such as -6.5, comes in handy for this game.
NFL Week 10 2026 Picks: 49ers at Cowboys
The 49ers are -220 at bet365 in this 4:25 PM game on Fox, with a total of 55 to 55.5. Dan thinks that number is conservative and would put -290 down to win 100 on San Francisco. He sees Dallas as the Tottenham of the NFL, with great facilities and a talented roster that never gels, and he notes the Cowboys barely beat the Colts. Matt points to San Francisco adding Keenan Allen at the deadline, Mike Evans being out, and Deebo Samuel possibly returning. Fred Warner leads the NFL with five forced fumbles, and rookie running back Kalen Black is keeping Christian McCaffrey fresh. Dan takes the under, arguing that Kyle Shanahan is playing chess for the playoffs and will rotate receivers and play conservatively if the game is in hand.
NFL Week 10 2026 Picks: Steelers at Bengals (Sunday Night)
Both teams are 6-2, and Cincinnati is a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 47.5 in a divisional game. Matt thinks the number is fair, and he sees the total going one of two ways, either under or a shootout, since Aaron Rodgers can still sling it but Pittsburgh has a good defense. Dan agrees and says the Bengals’ offense tends to struggle against strong defenses, while a late Burrow throw could change everything. He would put a make order on the Bengals at -3.5 at around -140 to -150, or take Cincinnati on the moneyline. He would not touch the total.
Rapid Fire NFL Week 10 2026 Picks
Dan shouts out the rest of the board for quick picks from Matt. Matt takes the Giants over the Commanders, Bills over Jets, Panthers over Saints, Texans over Browns, and Jaguars over Titans. He takes the Colts over the Dolphins because he does not believe in Kyle McCord. He also takes the Packers over the Vikings, the Rams over the Cardinals (veteran Matthew Stafford against rookie Carson Beck), and the Seahawks over the Raiders, despite rookie Fernando Mendoza under center for Las Vegas. Dan jokes that Mendoza is cold as ice under pressure.
For Monday night, Chargers at Ravens, the total is 38.5. Matt would almost go lower, and Dan jokes about a 0-0 tie. With Jacoby Brissett starting for Baltimore and Derrick Henry carrying the ball, Dan does not expect the winless Chargers to win.
Notas y futuros de la NBA
Matt admits he was wrong about the Warriors, whose rookie Jackson Lindenberg has changed their fortunes. He sees a top-heavy West that is getting murkier. Oklahoma City has injuries, Anthony Edwards is out for Minnesota, and Dallas is 7-2 with Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg both playing. The Rockets are beating everyone, and the Lakers are 10-2, though Matt points out they have had an easy schedule and wonders whether Luka Doncic can keep producing 40 points a night. Dan agrees and compares the Lakers to the Vikings, looking great against soft competition. Matt calls the Celtics’ 5-4 record inflated, since four of their wins came against Chicago and Milwaukee, who have a combined two wins. He still likes the Knicks to come out of the East, with the 76ers looking great and the Pistons missing Jalen Duren for now.
NBA Cup and Thursday Games
Warriors at Spurs (Friday, 9:30 PM ET, Prime Video). San Antonio is starting three guards, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, and Aaron Fox, and Matt expects a close game. The total is around 210 to 210.5. Dan has trouble calling the side, but Matt takes the over, since Golden State does not win with defense.
Knicks at Pacers. With Tyrese Haliburton out, Indiana is 3-8. The Knicks started 0-3 and are not playing at their best, with Mikal Bridges struggling, but both hosts take New York. Dan thinks it will not be close and would take a healthy spread.
Raptors at 76ers (Thursday night). Matt takes Philadelphia on the moneyline. He notes that each night a different star takes over, whether LeBron James in the fourth quarter, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, or Joel Embiid, and he thinks that depth will lead to over 60 wins. Dan uses the near -380 price to teach a stake-sizing lesson. Risking $380 to win $100 is not for everyone, but a bettor can scale to comfort, such as $160 to win about $50, or $40 to win $12.50.
TSMx Updates and Closing
Matt asks Dan for one reason to check out TSMx.io, and Dan points to the team itself. Users can talk to him, the developers, the product managers, and concierge support in the Discord. The big new feature from last week lets users select their own spread or total value. Coming in the next couple of weeks are anytime touchdown scorers, new order types, and leaderboard contests where users play with coins for cash and prizes, plus streaks, pick’ems, and free contests for merchandise. TSMx is also now publishing shorts and episodes on X at @TSMXio. Matt reminds listeners that TSMx is available in 22 states plus Washington D.C., that players must be 21 or older, and that help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER. He also suggests sharing Dan’s Market Primer with friends who are new to sports markets, and wraps up the NFL Week 10 2026 picks episode by asking viewers to like and share.
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