NFL: Undefeated Teams and Early Contenders

Last Updated on Outubro 8, 2026 6:35 pm by Erwin Noguera

Last NFL season’s fourteen playoff teams have a combined 30-26 record.

That is the lowest winning percentage through four weeks by the previous season’s playoff field in fifteen years, according to ESPN Research. The established order is not holding.

Three teams are undefeated: San Francisco, Kansas City, and Minnesota. And the two best point differentials in their respective conferences belong to teams that have already lost a game.

Here is who is actually good after four weeks, who is winning without being good, and what the numbers say about the difference.

No Gambyl, você pode acompanhar toda a temporada da NFL. Confira as últimas notícias, previsões e probabilidades de apostas enquanto desfruta de uma experiência completa de cassino online em Cassino Gambyl, Com ação rápida e jogabilidade intuitiva.

The Top of the League by Point Differential

Two of the top three are not undefeated. That is the first thing worth noticing, and it shapes everything below.

San Francisco 49ers — 4-0, +58

The best record and the best point differential in football, and they have been doing it short-handed.

Nick Bosa is out with a calf injury. Ricky Pearsall is gone for the season with a knee. Rookie De’Zhaun Stribling is out ten weeks with an ankle injury. San Francisco have absorbed all of that and have not lost.

Brock Purdy has emerged as an early MVP candidate, and the offence has carried most of the load. 122 points scored against 64 conceded is the most complete profile in the league; nobody else is in the top three in both columns.

And the Denver win changed the read. A 24-14 result in which the Niners leaned on defence and special teams rather than the scoreboard is evidence that this is not a one-dimensional team.

Verdict: the most legitimate 4-0 in the league, and the clearest Super Bowl profile after four weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs — 4-0, +41

Four wins, a +41 differential, and a running back who has rewritten the offence.

Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 537 rushing yards and has six total touchdowns. The effect is not just the yardage: a credible ground game has let Patrick Mahomes attack deep again, which is something the Chiefs’ offence had largely stopped doing.

The caution is the receiving room.Tyquan Thornton has a dislocated left ankle and Rashee Rice a right hamstring. Kansas City are on a bye this week, which arrives at a useful moment.

And the schedule has been real. Four conference wins, two divisional, including a 30-27 result at Las Vegas against a team that is 3-1 with a +31 differential.

Verdict: legitimate, and the bye is the most valuable thing any contender gets this week.

Minnesota Vikings — 4-0, +35

They are 4-0, and they have scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

That is not a criticism dressed as a statistic. It is the defining fact of Minnesota’s season. 86 points scored in four games (21.5 a game) against 51 conceded.

The explanation is entirely defence and special teams. Minnesota’s defence ranks No. 1 in the NFL in expected points added, com Brian Flores blitzing on 68% of snaps. The special teams unit ranks Nº 2: Will Reichard has made all twelve field goal attempts, and returner Myles Price is averaging 30.2 yards per kickoff return and 20.1 per punt return.

Their wins read 15-10 over Miami and a succession of similar scorelines. The 4-0 record is real and so is the defence. What is not established is whether a team that cannot score can keep winning into December.

Verdict: the shakiest unbeaten record in the league, and the one most likely to break first. ESPN’s panel ranks them ninth (behind two 3-1 teams and a 2-2 team), which is a reasonable place for a side with this profile.

The Two Best Teams That Already Lost

Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-1, +51. The best point differential in the AFC, ahead of Kansas City.

They have conceded 53 points in four games, and nine of them in first halves. Nine. All season.

The hype coming in was about Year 2 of the Liam Coen offence. The story is defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. Jacksonville rank top eight in the NFL in sacks, run defence, turnovers, red-zone efficiency, and third-down defence, com o second-best run defence in football at 74.3 yards a game.

They beat Cincinnati 22-17 on Sunday despite 125 penalty yards; their most in a single game since Week 7 of 2019. Winning a road game while giving away that much field is its own kind of evidence.

Chicago Bears: 3-1, +47. Second-best differential in the NFC, and they have done it with three different quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams put up 59 points on Carolina before his hamstring injury. Case Keenum beat Philadelphia. Tyson Bagent handled the Jets 23-12. The quarterback has changed twice, and the results have not.

That is because the team around the position is doing the work. Chicago are No. 1 in the NFL in total yards, first downs, and time of possession, e têm the league’s best rushing offence at 785 yards. Ben Johnson has built something that does not depend on who takes the snap.

Both of these teams have better underlying numbers than two of the three undefeated sides. Records are four games old. Differentials are not noise at this margin.

The Records That Lie

Cleveland Browns: 3-1, point differential of MINUS 14.

They are tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North. They have been outscored by fourteen points. 81 scored, 95 conceded.

Cleveland have won three straight, most recently 27-24 over Pittsburgh on Thursday night, and have won three games as an underdog for the first time since 2021. That is a genuine achievement, and it is also exactly how a negative differential and a winning record coexist: narrow wins and one heavy defeat.

We flagged this in last week’s column: Cleveland have not scored more than 27 points in any game. The number now puts a figure on it. A 3-1 team with a -14 differential is the single clearest regression candidate in the league.

New York Giants: 3-1, +3.

They are 3-0 at home and have outscored opponents by three points across the whole season. 82 against 79. Every win has been a coin flip that landed.

Neither of these teams is a fraud. Winning close games is a skill, and both have shown it. But a 3-1 record built on +3 or -14 is not the same asset as a 3-1 record built on +51, and the market will price them as though it is.

Last Year’s Playoff Field Is Falling Apart

30-26. Fifteen-year low.

The specifics are worse than the aggregate.

Buffalo opened the season with 77 points and 855 yards in two weeks and looked like a scoring-record team. They have been held to 25 points a game over the past two weeks with seven turnovers, and lost at home to New England as seven-point favourites. The teams they beat in those first two weeks (Houston and Detroit) are now a combined 2-6.

Philadelphia have been outscored 31-0 in the second half of their past two games, the worst two-game differential of the Nick Sirianni era. Against the Rams, they went 0-for-12 on third down and netted 68 passing yards, having held a 97.4% win probability while leading by ten with third-and-goal and 8:17 left.

Houston, Tennessee, the Chargers, Miami, and Tampa Bay are all 0-4. Five winless teams in Week 5.

Denver are 2-2 and 29th in explosive plays, with no 100-yard rushers and one 100-yard receiving game all season.

And the defending champions are 3-1 and the third-ranked team in the league. Seattle lost Sam Darnold to a glute injury on the fifth play of the season, lost their first-round running back Jadarian Price to IR after fumbles in consecutive weeks, and set a franchise record with 150 penalty yards in Week 4; and still have a +32 differential, largely because Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making a case as the best receiver in football.

The Injury That Changes This Week

Lamar Jackson sprained his left ankle against Tennessee and did not practise on Wednesday.

The reports conflict, and that matters. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport says Jackson has only an outside chance to play Sunday at Atlanta. ESPN’s Jamison Hensley reports he is a game-time decision after tests showed no major damage. Coach Jesse Minter said Jackson could miss most of the practice week and still play.

Tyler Huntley is the backup. Baltimore is already playing with their fourth-choice centre and third-string right guard because of injuries on the offensive line.

The Ravens are 3-1 with a +20 differential and are laying 3.5 points in Atlanta on Sunday night, against a team that has scored 80 points in two games. If Jackson sits, that number is wrong, and it has not fully moved yet.

The Verdict After Four Weeks

Three teams are genuinely in the top tier, and only two of them are undefeated. San Francisco at +58 and Jacksonville at +51 have the most complete profiles in football. Kansas City at +41 belongs with them.

Minnesota are 4-0 and are the most likely unbeaten record to fall, because one offensive touchdown since Week 1 is not a foundation, however good the defence and the kicking are.

Chicago at +47 are the most underrated team in the league and have proved it with three different quarterbacks.

And Cleveland at 3-1 with a -14 differential are the most overrated. They are top of the AFC North, and they have been outscored all year.

The broader signal is the one worth holding on to. Last year’s playoff field is 30-26, the worst start in fifteen years, and five teams are already winless. Four weeks is not a sample you can bet a season on, but it is more than enough to stop trusting last year’s hierarchy.