Last Updated on Outubro 7, 2026 9:54 pm by Erwin Noguera
Christian Leroy Duncan has won five in a row and beaten Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier back-to-back. Saturday is his first UFC main event.
Brendan Allen is ranked fourth, is on a three-fight run, and did not have to take this fight. He beat Reinier de Ridder to enter the top five last October, and he has now fought downward in the rankings twice this year rather than wait for a bigger name.
That is the headline: a contender choosing activity over protection, against a man one win from the title conversation.
Below it sits a twelve-fight card at the Meta APEX with a genuine interest attached: two fighters with 69 professional appearances between them who have reached the judges only eleven times.
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UFC Vegas 122: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Brendan Allen (-210) | Christian Leroy Duncan (+180) |
| Matheus Camilo (-145) | Jai Herbert (+125) |
| Loopy Godinez (-450) | Ketlen Souza (+350) |
| Andre Fili (-154) | Kai Kamaka III (+134) |
| Malcolm Wellmaker (-240) | Otari Tanzilovi (+200) |
| Julius Walker (-260) | Gerald Meerschaert (+215) |
| Francisco Prado (+180) | Ismael Bonfim (-210) |
| Niko Price (-110) | Leon Shahbazyan (-110) |
| Felipe Franco (-350) | Brendson Ribeiro (+280) |
| Allen Frye Jr. (+245) | RJ Harris (-300) |
| Alice Pereira (+161) | Daria Zhelezniakova (-185) |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė (+189) | Melissa Gatto (-225) |
| Quando? | Saturday, October 10 — prelims 5:00 PM ET, main card 8:00 PM ET |
| Onde? | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ |
Two notes before we start. The main event price is disputed: the offshore books opened Allen at -210, while others have him as short as -140. That is a large gap, and we flag it rather than pick the flattering version. And UFC.com’s own listings disagree on the card order: the event page places Fili–Kamaka and Wellmaker–Tanzilovi on the main card with Walker–Meerschaert opening the prelims, while the fight-by-fight preview has Walker–Meerschaert on the main card and Fili–Kamaka on the prelims. We have used the event page, which was updated more recently.
UFC Vegas 122: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Why Bet on Allen?
He is ranked fourth, and he is on a three-fight winning streak, the most recent a unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan that earned Fight of the Night. Before that, he beat Reinier de Ridder to climb into the top five.
The grappling is the fight. Allen’s path is to make this a wrestling and submission contest, and everything about Duncan’s rise has happened at range. The Louisiana man also does not mind a kickboxing match, which is the dangerous part of his profile for an opponent: he can win this two ways and only needs one of them to work.
And there is a case in the matchmaking itself. Allen is fighting backwards in the rankings for the second time this year, which says he is confident enough to take a risk the top five rarely take.
Why Bet on Duncan?
Five straight wins, including consecutive decisions over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier: two of the hardest men in the division to outpoint. That run took him into the top ten and earned him this main event.
The Gloucester man brings high-level, varied striking and excellent footwork, which is precisely the toolkit that keeps a fight where he wants it. If he can deny the first takedown and make Allen pay for the level change, twenty-five minutes at range belongs to him.
A win here puts him in the title conversation, and fighters in that position tend to produce their best.
Final Betting Analysis: Allen vs. Duncan
The whole fight is the first two minutes of grappling. UFC’s own preview frames it the same way: how Duncan holds up in the early entanglements dictates where the action happens and how it ends.
The price is the problem. No -210, Allen is a solid favourite; at -140, he is barely one. That spread tells you the market has not settled on how much the grappling edge is worth, and anyone betting this should shop hard for the better number.
Allen is the more complete fighter and has beaten the better opposition. Duncan has won five in a row and is the fresher story.
FREE PICK: Brendan Allen by decision, and only at -140 or better. At -210 there is no value.
UFC Vegas 122: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Why Bet on Camilo?
11-3, twenty-five years old, and training out of Xtreme Couture. After faltering on debut, he has won two straight, the most recent a result worth dwelling on: he stopped Nazim Sadykhov in the first round in Sadykhov’s own hometown of Baku.
Finishing a live opponent in front of his home crowd is the kind of performance that separates a prospect from a name, and Camilo did it at 25. The raw upside is the bet.
Why Bet on Herbert?
The British veteran has length and experience Camilo has not faced, and the habit of surviving. In April he looked on the brink of defeat against Mandel Nallo in Winnipeg before rallying to finish him.
The honest statistic cuts both ways. Herbert has not produced consecutive results in nine fights: he wins, he loses, he wins. By that pattern, this is a losing night. By the same pattern, he is due a response to the one he just produced.
Final Betting Analysis: Camilo vs. Herbert
Prospect against veteran, and the question is whether Camilo has seen length like this.
-145 is a short price for a 25-year-old with three professional defeats against a man who has beaten better. But Herbert’s nine-fight alternating pattern is not a coincidence; it describes a fighter whose ceiling is a good night rather than a run.
FREE PICK: Matheus Camilo by TKO.
UFC Vegas 122: Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
Why Bet on Godinez?
Ranked eighth, in her sixth year on the roster, and the best-credentialed fighter in this bout by a distance. Godinez has shared the Octagon with most of the division’s best, and the relevant line is this: she has not lost to an unranked opponent since 2021, when she moved up to flyweight against Luana Carolina.
Her most recent defeat came against Tatiana Suarez at UFC 327; losing to one of the division’s elite is not the same as being beatable by the rest of it.
Why Bet on Souza?
Two straight wins and improving. A grinding decision over Bruna Brasil in February, then a first-round knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in June to move to 4-2 at strawweight in the UFC.
Her route is pace and activity. When Souza is busy with her striking, it creates openings. At +350, she only has to find one of them against a 33-year-old who has absorbed six years of top-ten competition.
Final Betting Analysis: Godinez vs. Souza
-450 is a big number, and the record supports it. Five years without losing to an unranked opponent is a strong, specific credential, and the UFC’s own preview frames this as a measuring-stick fight for Souza rather than a threat to Godinez.
The caution is Souza’s tendency to settle. She can be active and effective, and she can also drift into the clinch and be content there, which, against a ranked opponent, is how you lose a decision you did not need to.
FREE PICK: Loopy Godinez by decision. No stake at -450.
UFC Vegas 122: Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Why Bet on Fili?
Making his third start of the year, and the most recent earned him Fight of the Night. Fili stepped up on short notice against Vinicius Oliveira in June and came away with a bonus; in March he lost a close decision to Jose Miguel Delgado.
That is a veteran taking hard fights and being competitive in all of them. Las Vegas-based, durable, and the more proven of the two.
Why Bet on Kamaka III?
1-1 since returning to the UFC this year, he edged Dakota Hope in April before running into unbeaten Liverpool prospect Luke Riley at UFC 329 em julho.
His case is freshness against mileage. Fili has been in wars; Kamaka has not accumulated the same damage. At +134 in a fight between two Las Vegas-based veterans who know each other’s world well, that is a reasonable price on the less-worn fighter.
Final Betting Analysis: Fili vs. Kamaka III
-154 and +134 is the market saying it cannot separate them, and it probably cannot.
Fili’s recent form is better in quality and worse in results: a close loss and a bonus-winning short-notice effort. Kamaka’s is one win and one loss against very different opposition.
FREE PICK: Andre Fili by decision.
UFC Vegas 122: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Why Bet on Wellmaker?
A year ago, he was 2-0 in the UFC, 10-0 overall, and one of the most highly regarded prospects in the promotion.
He is now 10-2 and on a two-fight skid, and has relocated to American Top Team in response: a significant change rather than a cosmetic one. “The Machine” built his reputation on punishing opponents early, and a fighter with his finishing profile usually only needs one clean sequence.
Why Bet on Tanzilovi?
Also 10-2, and the record is more informative than it looks. The Georgian lost a split decision to Josias Musasa on Contender Series, won five months later, and lost to unbeaten prospect Shane Collins em junho.
He has lost to the only two UFC-calibre opponents he has faced, but one of those was a split decision, and he has never been outclassed. At +200 against a man who has lost twice in a row, that is a live price.
Final Betting Analysis: Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi
A clash of 10-2 bantamweights, both needing a result. Wellmaker has the higher ceiling and is being priced on the version of him from eighteen months ago. Tanzilovi has the better recent narrative and has never been dominated.
-240 assumes the American Top Team move has already worked. That is an assumption, not evidence.
FREE PICK: Malcolm Wellmaker by knockout, at a reduced stake. Tanzilovi at +200 is defensible.
UFC Vegas 122: Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Why Bet on Walker?
7-3, and the UFC record understates him. One win in four Octagon starts sounds grim until you see the names: a split decision loss to Alonzo Menifield, a win over Raffael Cerquiera, and stoppage defeats to Dustin Jacoby and rising star Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev. The Drury University product has been handed a hard road.
He is also the younger, bigger, natural light heavyweight against a man who has spent his entire career at 185.
Why Bet on Meerschaert?
He holds the UFC middleweight record for most submission wins (11) and most finishes (12). That is not a stat line; it is a warning.
No 38, he arrives on a five-fight skid: the most recent was a weight-miss and defeat to Jacob Malkoun in Perth in May when he was already moving up. This is his first start at 205 pounds in over a decade, and the lack of a cut should mean a fresher, stronger version of him than anyone has seen recently.
At +215, a man with twelve UFC finishes needs one mistake from an opponent who has been stopped twice in his last three.
Final Betting Analysis: Walker vs. Meerschaert
This is the fight of the night, and the numbers say so. Across 69 combined professional appearances, these two have reached the judges only eleven times. Somebody is getting finished.
That is exactly why +215 is interesting. In a fight with a near-certain stoppage, the submission specialist with the divisional record is a long price against a fighter who has been stopped in two of his last three.
FREE PICK: Gerald Meerschaert by submission at +215, the best value on the card.
UFC Vegas 122: Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
Why Bet on Prado?
The young Argentinian is moving back down to lightweight, where his career started, after going the distance in all three of his welterweight appearances.
Durability is the credential. Nobody has stopped him, including at a weight above his natural one. Back at 155 against an opponent on a losing run, at +180, he is the fresher fighter in the better physical position.
Why Bet on Bonfim?
He raised his hand to take this fight, stepping in to replace prospect Artur Minev and hustling into the Octagon a month before his brother’s next main event.
He is on a three-fight skid, and that is the full price. A -210 favourite who has lost three in a row is the market betting on talent rather than form, but Bonfim’s talent is real, and he is the more dangerous finisher of the two.
Final Betting Analysis: Prado vs. Bonfim
A fighter still looking for his second UFC win against a fighter trying to stop a three-fight slide. Somebody’s season turns here.
Prado has never been finished and is returning to his natural weight. Bonfim is the better fighter on talent and the worse one on evidence.
FREE PICK: Francisco Prado at +180.
UFC Vegas 122: Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan
Por que apostar no preço?
He walked away from the sport this year and has come back for one last fight. Price retired following his bout with Michael Chiesa in Seattle, and returns chasing a ninth UFC win to end on.
Eight Octagon victories and a career built on disarray. Price has never fought a tidy fight in his life, and a veteran with nothing left to protect in his final appearance is a difficult opponent to prepare for.
Why Bet on Shahbazyan?
His debut lasted 23 seconds. Levan Chokheli ended it in June, and that is the entire sample.
Which is also the argument. Twenty-three seconds tells you almost nothing about a fighter beyond the fact that it went badly, and he is the younger man against a 37-year-old who already retired once this year.
Final Betting Analysis: Price vs. Shahbazyan
-110 both ways is the books admitting they have no idea. One fighter has eight UFC wins and one foot out of the sport; the other has 23 seconds of Octagon experience.
A retirement fight is the least predictable thing in MMA, and a pick’em price is the honest reflection of that.
FREE PICK: Niko Price by TKO. No stake, this is a watch, not a bet.
UFC Vegas 122: Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Why Bet on Franco?
Third appearance of the year, and the trajectory is the bet. Franco debuted on short notice up at heavyweight, taking Mário Pinto the distance, then came back down to light heavyweight and lit up Levi Rodrigues Jr. in July, collecting a bonus.
Taking a short-notice fight a weight class up and surviving, then finishing at your natural weight, is a prospect profile. No -350, the market has noticed.
Por que apostar em Ribeiro?
He stepped in for Alexander Poppeck, which means he took this on an adjusted timeline, and it is his third appearance of 2026, so he is at least active.
He is also in the middle of an extended run of poor results, which is why he is +280. His path is Franco’s inexperience at this level: two UFC fights is not many, and one of them was at the wrong weight.
Final Betting Analysis: Franco vs. Ribeiro
-350 on a fighter with two Octagon appearances is a lot of confidence, and it is based on one impressive finish and one gritty short-notice decision.
Franco should win. The price does not leave room for the possibility that a hungry compatriot with more experience makes it difficult.
FREE PICK: Felipe Franco by TKO. No stake at -350.
UFC Vegas 122: Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris
Why Bet on Frye Jr.?
He lost his December debut to Guilherme Pat on the scorecards and has not fought since, having been forced out of two assignments for undisclosed reasons.
That is the case and the concern in one sentence. He is healthy now, he went the distance on debut, and at +245 he is being priced on inactivity rather than ability.
Why Bet on Harris?
He took this opponent’s fight once already and knocked a man out in the first round doing it. Harris replaced Frye Jr. against Alvin Hines in July and won by first-round knockout on short notice in his promotional debut.
At heavyweight, a debutant who finishes inside a round on short notice is exactly the profile that keeps winning, and -300 reflects it.
Final Betting Analysis: Frye Jr. vs. Harris
There is a neat symmetry here, Harris got his break by replacing Frye Jr., and now they meet.
Harris has one Octagon appearance, and it was emphatic. Frye Jr. has one, and it was not, followed by ten months out. At heavyweight, where one punch settles everything, the man who has recently landed one is the correct side.
FREE PICK: RJ Harris by knockout.
UFC Vegas 122: Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova
Why Bet on Pereira?
She is the youngest fighter on the entire UFC roster. In April, she took her first Octagon win by feeding Hailey Cowan a stepping knee that earned her a performance bonus.
The pattern is the curiosity. “The Iron Lady” has split her first four starts, alternating win and loss each time, and by that sequence, Saturday is a win.
Why Bet on Zhelezniakova?
She is the ranked fighter at #15, and she is favoured at -185 against an opponent with a .500 Octagon record.
Women’s bantamweight is wide open, which the UFC’s own preview acknowledges, and the ranked fighter in a thin division usually has the more reliable floor. Zhelezniakova does not need a highlight; she needs three competent rounds.
Final Betting Analysis: Pereira vs. Zhelezniakova
Youth and a bonus-winning knee against ranking and consistency.
Pereira is the more explosive fighter and the more likely to produce the night’s best moment. She is also 2-2 and has never put two together. The price is fair on both sides.
FREE PICK: Daria Zhelezniakova by decision.
UFC Vegas 122: Ernesta Kareckaitė vs. Melissa Gatto
Why Bet on Kareckaitė?
She took an eleventh-hour opponent change in Mexico City (switching from Sofia Montenegro to Regina Tarin) and lost a decision in a fight that won Luta da Noite.
Losing a close one after a late switch is not the same as being outclassed, and the Lithuanian showed enough in that bout to suggest the result flattered her opponent. At +189, she is priced on the loss rather than the performance.
Why Bet on Gatto?
Her last fight is one of the stranger entries on this card. Gatto lost a majority decision to Dione Barbosa in April in a bout where she appeared to be knocked out by an illegal upkick, continued anyway, and lost.
That is a defeat with an enormous asterisk, and at -225 the market has clearly read it that way. A fighter who was fouled into a loss is usually underrated in the next booking.
Final Betting Analysis: Kareckaitė vs. Gatto
Two fighters coming off defeats that neither really deserved, one after a late opponent switch in a Fight of the Night, the other after an illegal upkick.
Gatto’s circumstance is the more extreme of the two, and the price reflects it only partially.
FREE PICK: Melissa Gatto by decision.
Resumo das Escolhas Grátis
| Fight | Pick | Play? |
|---|---|---|
| Allen vs. Duncan | Allen by decision | Only at -140 or better |
| Camilo vs. Herbert | Camilo by TKO | Sim |
| Godinez vs. Souza | Godinez by decision | No stake at -450 |
| Fili vs. Kamaka III | Fili by decision | Sim |
| Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi | Wellmaker by KO | Reduced stake |
| Walker vs. Meerschaert | Meerschaert by submission +215 | Best value on the card |
| Prado vs. Bonfim | Prado +180 | Sim |
| Price vs. Shahbazyan | Price by TKO | No stake |
| Franco vs. Ribeiro | Franco by TKO | No stake at -350 |
| Frye Jr. vs. Harris | Harris by KO | Sim |
| Pereira vs. Zhelezniakova | Zhelezniakova by decision | Sim |
| Kareckaitė vs. Gatto | Gatto by decision | Sim |
Our strongest position is Gerald Meerschaert at +215. Twelve UFC finishes, no weight cut for the first time in a decade, against an opponent stopped in two of his last three, in a fight that is overwhelmingly likely to end early.
Our strongest fades are Godinez at -450 and Franco at -350, two prices that assume more certainty than the evidence supports.
Visão geral final do cartão
The main event is a genuine top-ten fight, and the most interesting thing about it is the matchmaking. Brendan Allen is ranked fourth and has now fought downward in the division twice this year. Most top-five fighters spend that period waiting. He has spent it working, and Saturday is the first time it looks like a real risk.
The best fight on the card is on the prelims, which is the way of things. Walker and Meerschaert have 69 professional appearances between them and have gone to the judges eleven times. Meerschaert holds the middleweight records for submissions and finishes and is competing at light heavyweight for the first time in over a decade. One of these two is getting stopped.
And the card carries an ending.Niko Price returns for one last fight, having already walked away this year, chasing a ninth UFC win in the evening’s opener. The market has it at a true pick’em, which for a retirement bout is about right.
Three cautions. The main event price is disputed between -140 and -210, so shop it. UFC.com’s own listings disagree on which fights are on the main card. And four fighters on this card are returning from inactivity, a replacement booking, or a weight-class change, the usual form guide applies less than normal.
Bet the prelims, shop the main event, and set aside ten minutes for Walker and Meerschaert.
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