MLB Playoff Race: Teams Peaking in September

Last Updated on Setembro 10, 2026 4:55 pm by Erwin Noguera

Two weeks ago, Toronto were 64-69, three and a half games out of the last wild card. We wrote that they needed to pass five or six clubs and that it was “a lot of traffic in five weeks.”

They went roughly 8-2 and now hold the third American League wild card.

The regular season ends on Sunday, 27 September. The Wild Card Series begins two days later. Everything below is decided within two and a half weeks.

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The Bracket as It Stands

Liga Americana

• Raios (East) — 85-57
• White Sox (Central) — 74-68
• Astros (West) — 73-70
• Yankees — 81-61
• Red Sox — 78-65
• Gaio-azul — 72-71

Guardiões are level with Toronto at 72-71 and outside on the tiebreaker. Rangers two back, Papa-figos three, Gêmeos three and a half.

Liga Nacional

• Cervejeiros (Central) — 88-55, the best record in baseball
• Dodgers (West) — 85-57
• Bravos (East) — 84-58
• Filhotes — 81-62
• Phillies — 80-62
• Padres / Diamondbacks — separated by half a game

Peaking: Toronto Blue Jays

The clearest surge in either league, and the one we did not see coming.

Toronto sold softly at the deadline, spent August being written off, and have played roughly .800 baseball across the past fortnight to climb from three and a half games out into the final wild-card place.

What makes it credible is that they did it against the traffic we described: passing multiple clubs rather than waiting for one to fall away.

What makes it fragile is the margin. They hold the spot on a tiebreak, level on record with Cleveland, with Texas two games back and Baltimore three. There is no cushion at all, and their elimination number is 20 with roughly seventeen games left.

Peaking: Houston Astros

A fortnight ago, Houston were 66-67 and leading the AL West by default, having just gone 3-6 on a homestand against the Mariners, Angels and Athletics.

They have since gone roughly 7-3 and sit 73-70 with a magic number of 17 in the division.

They are still only three games above .500, and the West remains the weakest division in baseball. But a team that was drifting is now winning, and the prize is a home series they would not otherwise have earned. Texas, two games back in the wild card, is the only club realistically chasing them.

Holding: Milwaukee and Tampa Bay

The Brewers have the best record in baseball at 88-55 and a magic number of 13 in the Central. We wrote a fortnight ago that if Milwaukee were still being described as a surprise in October, the description was wrong, that they are simply a very good team without famous players. Nothing has changed except the size of the lead.

Tampa Bay holds the AL’s top seed at 85-57. The Rays have been the best team in the American League all year and remain the least discussed. Their magic number in the East is 17, with the Yankees nine and a half games back.

Both clubs are positioned for the first-round bye, which is the single largest structural advantage in the current postseason format: it removes an entire elimination series and hands you a rested rotation.

Still Holding: The White Sox

We called Chicago the most underrated team in baseball a fortnight ago, on the basis that they led the Central and were in line for a bye that nobody was discussing.

They are still the second seed in the American League at 74-68, with a magic number of 18 in the division and Cleveland eighteen away from elimination.

The caveat we raised then still applies. This is a young roster with no experience of leading a division in September, and their record over the past fortnight has been roughly break-even. They have not surged. They have simply not collapsed, which for this group is an achievement.

Fading: Cleveland Guardians

The most frustrating team in the league, for the second time this season.

Cleveland held the third wild card in late August at 68-66, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball. We wrote then that they had already squandered that advantage once and that doing it twice would be terminal.

They are 72-71 and now outside the bracket, level with Toronto on record and behind on the tiebreaker. The schedule that was supposed to carry them has instead been converted into roughly .500 baseball for a second consecutive month.

Their elimination number in the wild-card race is 18. There is time. There has been time all year.

The NL Wild Card Is a Coin Flip

The tightest race in either league.

San Diego (78-68) and Arizona (78-69) are separated by half a game for the final National League place, and they have already traded the position once in the past week: Arizona held it on 5 September, San Diego holds it now.

Behind them the field has thinned. Miami and St. Louis sit four games back, Pittsburgh five. Realistically, this is a two-team race for one spot, and it will run to the final weekend.

Above them, the Cubs (magic number 14) and Phillies (15) are close to safe. Philadelphia’s number to secure the top wild card and home-field advantage in that series is also 15.

The Dodgers Problem

Los Angeles is 85-57 and the second seed in the National League, and the postseason will be framed around them.

Back-to-back champions who followed those titles by acquiring Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline are not a normal defending champion. Every other team in the bracket enters October as some degree of underdog, and the interesting question is not whether the Dodgers are good: it is whether anyone has assembled enough to beat them in a short series.

Milwaukee’s record says they have. Tampa Bay’s says they might. Nobody else has an obvious case.

Where We Were Right, and Where We Were Wrong

Wrong on Toronto. We acknowledged they were not eliminated and then explained why the climb was unlikely. They made it in ten days.

Right on Milwaukee. Best record in baseball, exactly as described.

Right on Chicago. Still the second seed and still in line for the bye we said nobody was discussing.

Right on Cleveland, unfortunately. We wrote that wasting the easiest schedule in baseball twice would be terminal. They are outside the bracket with seventeen games left.

What Is Left

Seventeen games, give or take, for everybody.

The AL third wild card is a four-team fight: Toronto and Cleveland level, Texas two back, Baltimore three. One hot week decides it.

The NL third wild card is a two-team fight separated by half a game.

Three byes are effectively spoken for (Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, and one of the Dodgers or Braves), with Chicago’s White Sox holding the fourth and least secure.

The teams peaking right now are Toronto and Houston. The team that needed to peak and has not is Cleveland. And the club with the best record in baseball is a Milwaukee side that almost nobody outside Wisconsin has watched all season.