Last Updated on Setembro 15, 2026 8:24 pm by Erwin Noguera
Chicago and Carolina combined for 96 points. The Bears won 59-37.
That was not the most surprising result of the weekend. Arizona, a 100-to-1 shot to win their division, went to Los Angeles and beat the Chargers 26-14 as a 9.5-point underdog. And Patrick Mahomes, playing his first competitive football since surgery on a torn ACL and LCL, beat Denver 31-10.
Here is what Week 1 actually told us, what it did not, and where we were wrong.
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Winners
Patrick Mahomes. Thirty-one points, a 21-point win, and no visible hesitation on a rebuilt knee against the team that won the AFC West by multiple games last season. Kansas City never settled its right tackle position in preseason, and it did not matter. This was the single most emphatic answer any question received all weekend.
The Chicago Bears. Fifty-nine points. Caleb Williams and an offence described all summer as a project put up a number nobody in the league matched, and they did it while their own defence conceded 37. Whatever Chicago is, it is not boring.
Cardeais do Arizona. A club with a 4.5-win total, a new head coach, and no Kyler Murray went into SoFi Stadium and won by twelve as a nine-and-a-half-point underdog. Mike LaFleur’s first game was the biggest upset of the week by a distance.
John Harbaugh. The Giants beat Dallas 28-20 on Sunday night in his first game in charge, with a roster carrying three injured starting cornerbacks and a quarterback with a durability record. We wrote that Harbaugh alone was worth wins. He collected one immediately.
Jacksonville. A 34-10 dismantling of Cleveland. We picked the Jaguars to win the AFC South, and they opened like the best team in it.
Losers
Los Angeles Rams. The worst weekend any club had. Super Bowl favourites at +500 lost 27-7 to San Francisco at the MCG, and lost Myles Garrett (the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and the signing that made them favourites) for at least four weeks with a knee injury.
One game, fifteen hours of travel, and a morning kick-off is a bad sample. Losing your best defensive player for a month is not a sample at all.
Los Angeles Chargers. Beaten at home by a team priced at 100-to-1 to win its division. Justin Herbert had Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back in front of him and two new coordinators calling the game, and the offence produced fourteen points.
Cleveland Browns. Ten points in Jacksonville. The rebuild is proceeding exactly as the 5-12 projection suggested.
Tennessee Titans. Robert Saleh’s revenge game against the club that fired him ended 23-10 to the Jets, at home. Tennessee released both Hendon Hooker and Will Levis at cutdown, so the season now rests entirely on Cam Ward finding something.
Denver Broncos. We called them the best value on the AFC West board. They lost by 21.
Overreactions
“The Bears are an offensive juggernaut.” They scored 59 against a Carolina defence that also gave up 37 points in the same game. Chicago still holds one of the three hardest schedules in football and an unresolved left tackle. Ask again after they have played a defence.
“Mahomes is all the way back.” He might be. It was one home game in Week 1 against a division rival who was also playing their opener. The right tackle question is unresolved rather than answered. Denver simply did not make it matter on Monday night. The test arrives when Kansas City plays a real pass rush on the road.
“The Rams are in trouble.” The scoreline is not the story. A team that flew fifteen hours, played at 10:35 in the morning on an unfamiliar surface, and lost its best defender is not a team you can evaluate from one result. Garrett’s return date is the only Rams fact worth tracking.
“Seattle looked terrible.” The defending champions won 13-10. That is a Super Bowl rematch between the two best defences in football, and Seattle’s was the better one, again. That matchup produces low scores. New England’s offence was not exposed; it was defended.
“The Cardinals are a playoff team.” No. They beat a good side on a bad afternoon. A 4.5-win total does not move on one result, and Arizona’s roster is still the youngest and thinnest in the conference.
Where We Were Wrong
We published predictions for all eight divisions. Week 1 went badly for several of them, and we are not going to pretend otherwise.
Our worst call was the AFC West. We picked the Chargers to win the division and placed the Chiefs terceiro, outside the playoffs entirely, on the basis that Mahomes was returning from major knee surgery behind an unsettled offensive line.
The Chiefs won by 21. The Chargers lost at home to a 100-to-1 shot. Both halves of that call were wrong in the same weekend, and it was the boldest thing we published all preseason.
Denver at +210 also looks worse, though a road defeat at Arrowhead was always the likeliest outcome on their schedule.
We picked the Rams to win the Super Bowl and they lost their opener and their best defender.
We picked Dallas as the best value in the NFC East, and they lost in New York.
We picked New Orleans to win the NFC South on the strength of the easiest schedule in football. They lost 31-30 at Detroit, which is a defensible way to start.
What we got right: Jacksonville to win the AFC South opened 34-10. Buffalo and Philadelphia both won. And in our Patriots–Seahawks preview, we took New England +3.5 and the under: Seattle won 13-10, so both landed.
The One Number That Actually Matters
Myles Garrett, out at least four weeks.
Everything else this weekend was a single data point in a seventeen-game season. That is a structural change to the team the market made Super Bowl favourites, and it arrives before the Rams have a win.
The Chiefs went from a question to an answer in one night. The Rams went the other way, and it will take a month to find out how far.
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