NFL Week 3: Winners, Losers and Overreactions

Last Updated on Setembro 28, 2026 5:32 pm by Erwin Noguera

Atlanta had scored 16 points in two games. On Thursday night, they scored 35 at Lambeau Field.

Washington beat a 2-0 Seattle team without their starting quarterback. Pittsburgh scored 30 a week after managing three. Indianapolis and Denver both won as underdogs, and the Raiders are 3-0.

Here is what NFL Week 3 told us, what it did not, and where we were right for once.

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Winners

Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons.35-14 at Green Bay, as seven-point underdogs, from a team that had scored eight points a game and converted zero red-zone trips in two weeks with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. One quarterback returned, and the offence produced more points in a night than it had all season.

The Las Vegas Raiders.3-0 after a 35-27 win against New Orleans. Priced 25th on the Super Bowl board at +12500 a week ago. Nobody is discussing them, and they keep winning.

Washington Commanders.33-31 over Seattle, without Jayden Daniels, with Marcus Mariota starting, as home underdogs, in a game the market priced at a 41.5 total that produced 64 points. Their Super Bowl price had nearly doubled days earlier.

Jacksonville Jaguars.35-6 against New England. A 29-point margin against a team that had just held Pittsburgh to three.

Pittsburgh Steelers.30-27 over Cincinnati, having scored three points the week before against the Patriots. They beat a 2-0 division leader as home underdogs.

Colts de Indianápolis. Their first win, 19-17 over Houston, who were road favorites. Two weeks after losing by 18 to Baltimore.

Denver Broncos.30-26 over the Rams on Sunday night at altitude.

And Minnesota are 3-0, beating Tampa Bay 23-16. Five teams reached 3-0 before Monday night: the Vikings, Raiders, Bills, 49ers, and Chiefs.

Losers

Green Bay Packers. Beaten by 21 at home by the lowest-scoring offence in football, missing two offensive liners, and now 0-3 against the spread on the season despite a winning record before kickoff.

New England Patriots.Six points at Jacksonville, seven days after holding Pittsburgh to three. The defense that looked like the story of their season did not travel.

Houston Texans.0-3. They were favored on the road against a winless Indianapolis and lost by two. A roster built on defense has now lost to Buffalo, Cincinnati, and the Colts.

Los Angeles Chargers.0-3. Sixteen points in Buffalo. Three defeats, 44 points scored.

Tennessee Titans.0-3, e sete pontos at the Giants in a 12-7 game. Cam Ward’s season needs something to happen.

Bengalas de Cincinnati. Unbeaten becomes 2-1, beaten by a Steelers offence averaging 11.5 points before Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks. Conceded 33 to a team missing its starting quarterback.

Miami Dolphins.0-3, beaten 24-10 by Kansas City.

Overreactions

“Atlanta are fixed.” They scored 35 against a Green Bay side missing two offensive line starters, in one game, having scored 16 in the previous two. Penix is a genuine upgrade on what preceded him: he threw for under 2,000 yards in nine games last season at an 88.5 rating. The floor moved. The ceiling has not been established.

“Washington are fine without Daniels.” They won a 64-point shootout and conceded 31 at home. A defense that had allowed 30.5 a game and recorded zero takeaways through two weeks just allowed 31 more. Marcus Mariota won them a game; he has not fixed the team.

“Pittsburgh’s offence is back.” Thirty points after three. The truth is somewhere in the middle and probably closer to the low teens; this is a group averaging 3.81 yards per play across the season.

“The Raiders are contenders.” 3-0 is 3-0, and it deserves respect. It has also come against the Chargers, Chiefs’ division rivals, and New Orleans. The schedule has not asked a hard question yet.

“Seattle are exposed.” They are 2-1, still without Sam Darnold, and lost a shootout on the road. The defending champions are fine.

“Houston are done.” 0-3 is close to fatal in practice, and their underlying numbers were bad before this week. But they lost to Buffalo, Cincinnati, and a Colts team that took Kansas City to overtime. That is not a soft opening.

Onde acertamos e onde erramos

We went three-for-three on our Week 3 predictions, which had not happened before this season.

Ravens 27-24 over Dallas in Rio. Actually: Ravens 34-31. Correct side, and the correct three-point margin.

Bills 31-20 over the Chargers. Actually: Bills 24-16. Correct side, and the cover.

Broncos 24-23 over the Rams. Actually: Broncos 30-26. Our only underdog pick of the week, and the reasoning (altitude, Denver’s fourth quarter against Jacksonville, and Myles Garrett still absent) held up.

The Atlanta call was the best of the lot. In Thursday’s injury piece we wrote that the 43.5 total was set before Penix was cleared and that the market had not repriced his return. The game produced 49 points.

And the Giants warning landed. We flagged that New York -5.5 had been posted before Jaxson Dart’s knee surgery and told readers to check it rather than touch it. The Giants won 12-7: Tennessee covered comfortably in a game that produced 19 points.

Where we were wrong: we wrote that the Bengals at -3.5 in Pittsburgh was the division game worth watching and leaned Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won. We also had nothing useful to say about Washington beating Seattle, because nobody did.

The One Number That Actually Matters

Thirty-five points.

Atlanta scored eight per game for two weeks with a backup quarterback and a 0% red-zone touchdown rate. They changed one player and scored 35 on the road against a team that was favored by a touchdown.

That is the clearest single illustration of this season of how much one position decides. Chicago went from 59 points to three when Caleb Williams went down. Washington’s championship price halved when Daniels dislocated an elbow, then they won without him. Atlanta went from the worst offence in football to 35 in a night.

Four starting quarterbacks changed hands between Week 2 and Week 3. The results this weekend were shaped more by that than by anything a coach drew up, and with Philadelphia at Chicago still to play on Monday night, the last of those four changes has not been tested yet.