Last Updated on Outubro 13, 2026 4:36 pm by Erwin Noguera
Three games went to overtime. One of them still did not produce a winner. The Giants and Commanders finished 27-27, the first NFL tie of 2026, after Washington watched a 14-point lead disappear with 11 minutes left and Dominic Zvada pushed a 46-yard attempt wide left on New York’s first overtime possession.
Two teams are now 5-0. Three teams are 0-5. San Francisco has the best point differential in football at +61. Miami has the worst at -62.
And the team we ranked fourth in the league on Friday lost 31-7.
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Vencedores
Drake Maye.26 of 34 for 374 yards, four passing touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 25 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, five total scores in a 45-17 demolition of Las Vegas. Four weeks ago, he led the NFL with nine turnovers. This was his first turnover-free game of the season. New England is 3-2 and has won two straight.
San Francisco 49ers.5-0 with a +61 differential, the best in the league, after a 32-29 win at Seattle. On the road, against the defending champions, in the only game of the week between two teams with winning records in the same division.
Minnesota Vikings. 5-0. And for the first time this season the offence showed up: 23 points at New Orleans, more than they had managed in three of their first four games. The differential is now +45.
Jacksonville Jaguars.4-1 with a +53 differential, the best in the AFC. They beat Philadelphia 19-17 at Tottenham on a 57-yard Cam Little field goal at the end, with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 331 yards and Parker Washington catching six for 124 and two touchdowns.
Joe Burrow.Four touchdowns on 190 passing yards in a 31-24 win at Miami. That is not an error: 23 of 32, under 200 yards, four scores. Cincinnati is 3-2 and goes into the bye at +19.
Jordan Love and the Packers.25 of 31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-7 dismantling of Chicago, with Christian Watson catching six for 143 and two scores. Green Bay is 3-2 and has won two in a row.
Baltimore Ravens.4-1 and winners of three straight, without Lamar Jackson. Tyler Huntley went 24 of 32 for 201 yards and two touchdowns, hit Devontez Walker with 40 seconds left in regulation, and scored the winner himself on a one-yard sneak in overtime at Atlanta.
Houston Texans.Their first win of the season, 26-3 over Tennessee. C.J. Stroud was 26 of 34 for 261 yards. Four weeks of losing by a combined eighteen points finally turned into something.
Buffalo Bills.37-34 in overtime at the Rams on Monday night, in a game that produced 71 points against a 53.5 total. They are 4-1.
Perdedores
Miami Dolphins.0-5 with a -62-point differential, the worst in football. Seventy points scored in five games. They led Cincinnati in the fourth quarter and lost.
Los Angeles Chargers.0-5, beaten 23-17 by Denver, at -45. We called this season effectively over in week four, and nothing has argued otherwise.
Tennessee Titans.0-5, a -51 differential, and 58 points scored in five games. Three of them came in Houston on Sunday.
Chicago Bears.31-7 at Lambeau. Seven points, one touchdown, and a point differential that fell from +47 to +23 in a single afternoon. More on this below, because we had them fourth in the league two days earlier.
Washington Commanders.A fourteen-point lead with eleven minutes left turned into a 27-27 tie. They are 1-3-1 with a -34 differential.
Arizona Cardinals.45-21 at Detroit, a fourth straight defeat, and a -54 differential that is second worst in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles.2-3 and losers of three in a row. Jalen Hurts threw for enough and they still lost by two to a field goal with the gun. A -20 differential from a team that was a Super Bowl pick in August.
Os Raiders de Las Vegas. Beaten by 28 in New England, a second straight defeat after a 3-0 start. Brock Bowers caught eight for 110 and a touchdown, which was the only thing that went right.
Cleveland Browns.17-12 at the Jets. Twelve points. They are 3-2 with a -19 differential and have still not scored more than 27 in any game.
Reações exageradas
“The Patriots are back.” Drake Maye was outstanding, and the win was emphatic. They are 3-2 with a +16 differential, and they beat a Raiders team that has now lost two straight. Two weeks ago, they were 1-2, and Maye was the most turnover-prone quarterback in football. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and it will take four more weeks to find.
“Chicago was a fraud.”They are 3-2 with a +23 differential, which is still eighth in the league. A 31-7 defeat at Lambeau with your third-choice quarterback situation is a bad day, not a verdict. But our +47 argument is gone, and that was the whole case.
“Minnesota are a real contender now.” They are 5-0, and the defense is genuinely elite. They have also scored 109 points in five games (21.8 a game) against the easiest schedule of any unbeaten team. The offence scoring 23 is progress, not proof.
“The Giants are a playoff team.”3-1-1 with a +3-point differential. They have outscored opponents by three points across five games and just failed to beat a 1-3 team. Everything about this record is fragile.
“Jacksonville are the best team in the AFC.” On point differential, they are: +53, ahead of Kansas City’s +41. Eles também admitiram 70 points in five games and nine in first halves all season, which is the most impressive defensive profile in football. The caution is the schedule, not the performance. This is not an overreaction so much as a claim that needs four more weeks.
“Tampa Bay have turned their season around.” They won in Dallas as ten-point underdogs with a rookie quarterback. They are 1-4 with a -12 differential. One result.
Onde nos enganamos
We predicted Rams 30-27 over Buffalo. The Bills won 37-34 in overtime. Wrong side.
But we wrote that the side was not the bet. On that game we said: “A 53.5 total between two defenses that have struggled is the part worth betting, not the side.”The game produced 71 points. The read was right, and the prediction was wrong, which is an uncomfortable but useful split.
And we ranked Chicago fourth in the league on Friday, calling them “the most underrated team in the league.” They lost 31-7 two days later, and their differential fell 24 points.
The case was explicitly built on a number we flagged as soft in the same article. We wrote that the 59-point game against Carolina “inflates the differential meaningfully” and that stripping it left a profile that was “good rather than elite.”We identified the weakness in our own argument and ranked them fourth anyway. That is the second time in three weeks we have published the caveat and then ignored it.
We also said Minnesota’s 4-0 was “the softest record in the league” and “the most likely to break first.” They went to New Orleans, scored 23, and were 5-0.
What we got right.Cleveland was the most overrated team in the league: they lost 17-12 to the Jets and remained 3-2 with a negative differential. The 49ers over Seattle, correct side at 32-29. The Vikings over New Orleans, correct at 23-13. The Ravens over Atlanta, correct at 30-23, in a game we flagged as mispriced because Lamar Jackson’s status was unresolved. He did not play, and Baltimore won anyway.
And the Jacksonville read held. We have had them in the top three for two weeks on the strength of nine first-half points conceded. They are 4-1 with the best differential in the conference.
O único número que realmente importa
Minus 62.
That is Miami’s point differential after five games. Seventy points scored, 132 conceded, 0-5. For comparison, the Chargers are 0-5 at -45 and Tennessee 0-5 at -51. Miami are the worst of the three, and it is not close.
But the number matters for a reason beyond Miami. Throughout five weeks, three teams are winless, and two are unbeaten, and the spread between the best and worst differential is 123 points. San Francisco at +61, Miami at -62.
That gap is the widest we have seen this season, and it is still only week five. Last year’s playoff field started 30-26, the worst in fifteen years. What has replaced the old hierarchy is not parity. It is separation: a handful of teams who are clearly very good, a handful who are clearly finished, and a middle tier of eleven teams sitting between 2-3 and 3-2 with point differentials inside ten points of zero.
The season’s shape is now visible. Six teams have a differential better than +20. Six have one worse than -30. The other twenty are still arguing about it.
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