Atualização semanal da NFL: Semana 9

Last Updated on Novembro 3, 2026 7:43 pm by Erwin Noguera

The total on Thursday night has fallen nine points. Baltimore-Jacksonville opened at 49.5 and is now 40.5, which is the market removing an entire quarterback room from a NFL game.

Lamar Jackson needs thumb surgery and is going on injured reserve, with Jesse Minter saying the injury could end his season. Tyler Huntley cannot play. Joe Fagnano, the emergency third quarterback who finished Sunday’s defeat, is fighting an ankle problem and is the likely starter, which would make him only the second undrafted rookie quarterback to start a game in the Ravens’ 32-year history.

We analyze the games of the league’s best four sides each week. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on byes, and the four best are San Francisco, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Chicago, two of whom play each other on Monday night. So, the fourth game goes to Jacksonville, who now hold the best point differential in the National Football League at eighty-five.

The totals have moved harder this week than any week we have covered.Baltimore-Jacksonville is down nine. New York-Philadelphia is down five to 39.5, the lowest number on board. Arizona-Seattle is down four. Em contrapartida, the Jets at Kansas City and Las Vegas at San Francisco are both up five, e Cincinnati against Atlanta (played at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid) is up four to 52.5, the highest total of the week.

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NFL Week 9 Games

Steelers and Titans on bye.

NFL Week 9: Jaguars vs. Ravens

Jacksonville arrives with the best point differential in football at plus eighty-five, twenty-seven clear of San Francisco, having beaten Indianapolis 42-7 with Trevor Lawrence going 10 of 14 for 210 yards, fifteen yards an attempt.They concede 15.86 points a game, second-best in the league behind Minnesota.

Baltimore are 4-4, and their differential has gone from plus two to minus twenty-four in a week.Jackson hurt his thumb on his first snap against Buffalo, Huntley hurt his toe in the second quarter, and Fagnano finished the game 10 of 21 for 91 yards. Baltimore’s leading receiver had one catch. They signed Austin Reed to the practice squad on Monday and a separate report has them adding Kedon Slovis to the 53-man roster off Green Bay’s practice squad; sources differ on who the backup is.

The market and the model agree almost exactly, which is unusual on a line this big.No-vig, Jacksonville is an 80.4% proposition; FPI has 81.0%, a gap of eight-tenths of a point.There is no disagreement to exploit here.

The nine-point drop in the total is the bet, not the side.A 40.5 on a Thursday night game involving a team starting an undrafted rookie with an ankle injury, against the second-best defense in the league, is a number the market has already moved a long way.The lines also differ by book (ESPN shows Jacksonville -10 while DraftKings has been posting 8.5), so shop it.

Prediction: Jaguars 27-10 Ravens

NFL Week 9: Buccaneers vs. Bears

This is the largest model-market disagreement we have recorded all season, and this morning we published a rule about what to do with those.

No-vig, the market makes Chicago a 71.0% proposition. FPI has them at 62.9%.That is an 8.1-point gap in Tampa Bay’s favor: double the threshold at which we committed, in this morning’s Week 8 review, to taking the model or passing rather than arguing with it.

The underlying numbers support the model.Tampa Bay is 3-5 with a plus-twenty-seven-point differential, ninth best in the league, and they have just won a game 16-0 without completing a pass: Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3, handed off 52 times, and Bucky Irving ran 27 times for 170 yards. Before that weekend, all five of their defeats had come by seven points or fewer.

Chicago is 6-2 at plus fifty-four and beats Seattle 34-17 at Lumen Field, with Caleb Williams going 24 of 34 for 247. They are the real thing, and we are not arguing otherwise.We argue that six points is too many against a team whose record is the most misleading in football.

So, we are applying the rules we wrote this morning rather than explaining why we are brave.Tampa Bay with the points, +6. The total has eased two points to 46.5, which fits a Tampa Bay side currently built around a running game and a defense conceding 18.88.

To be explicit, because the two halves of this can look contradictory:we expect Chicago to win, and we expect Tampa Bay to cover. A Bears win by fewer than six satisfies both, and that is the outcome the model is describing.

Prediction: Bears 23-20 Buccaneers, Tampa Bay +6 covers

NFL Week 9: Bills vs. Vikings

The best offence in football against the best defense in football, and the two best records in the league at 6-1.

Buffalo scores 33.29 points a game, the most in the NFL by nearly four, and has just beaten Baltimore 36-10 with Josh Allen throwing for 289. Minnesota concedes 13.29 a game, the best figure in the league by two and a half points over Jacksonville and lost their first game of the season 19-15 in Detroit.

The contrast is the whole fixture.Minnesota scores 20.00 a game, which is bottom-ten.Buffalo concedes 25.86, which is bottom-five. Each team’s weakness is the other’s strength, and whichever side of that trade holds up decides it.

FPI leans Buffalo, slightly. No-vig, Minnesota are a 38.4% proposition; the model has them at 36.1%, a 2.3-point gap, well inside the threshold where we now defer to the model. No edge either way, which means this comes down to the total.

45.5 is down three from its 48.5 open, and the total is where the real information is.

Buffalo’s seven games have produced an average of 59.1 combined points. Minnesota’s seven have produced 33.3.That is a gap of 25.8 points between the two environments, and the market has set the number at 45.5, within a point of the exact midpoint.

Minnesota have been involved in one game over 45.5 all season, a 39-22 opener, and their median game total is 34. Last week’s 19-15 in Detroit was a 34-point game. A defense conceding 13.29 against an offence scoring 33.29 is a genuine collision, and splitting the difference is the one thing we are confident is wrong: one of these two profiles wins the night, and the side of it with seven weeks of evidence behind it.

Prediction: Bills 24-20 Vikings

NFL Week 9: Raiders vs. 49ers

San Francisco are 6-1 with the second-best differential in the league at plus fifty-eight, and they are coming off a bye.

Las Vegas are 4-4 with a minus-nine differential and just won 38-33 at the Jets, which is their profile in one line: they score 27.63 a game, seventh best in the league, and concede 28.75, which is the second-worst figure in football.

That is why the total has climbed five points from 46.5 to 51.5.A team that cannot defend visiting a rested side with the second-best margin in the league is a high number, and the market has found it.

FPI likes San Francisco slightly more than the market does.No-vig, the 49ers are an 81.2% proposition; the model has them at 83.6%: a 2.4-point gap in the favorite’s direction. Both are inside the threshold, pointing the same way.

Ten points is a lot to lay, and we are going to lay it anyway because Las Vegas have conceded 230 points in eight games and San Francisco have had two weeks to prepare.The over is the softer side of this card if you want the correlated position.

Prediction: 49ers 31-20 Raiders

O restante da lista em uma linha

Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (Sunday, 9:30 AM ET): the first Spanish regular-season game on our board, at the Santiago Bernabéu, with the total up four to 52.5, the highest of the week; Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards last Sunday and Atlanta were shut out.

Giants at Eagles: the Giants are favored by 3.5 on the road against a side on a six-game losing run, and the total has fallen five to 39.5, the lowest on the board; Philadelphia are 2-6 at minus sixty-five.

Jets at Chiefs: Kansas City -9.5 with a total up five to 46.5 after they scored 24 in Denver and lost; the Jets are 2-6.

Cardinals at Seahawks: the biggest spread of the week at -10.5, with the total down four to 41.5; Arizona just won in Dallas in overtime with the second-worst differential in football.

Lions at Dolphins: Detroit -7 with the total up three to 50.5; Miami are 1-6 and score 16.71 a game, second fewest in the league.

Browns at Saints: New Orleans -1.5, which means the market has made a 2-5 team a favorite over a 5-3 one; Cleveland’s minus-thirty-four is the worst margin of any club at .500 or better.

Cowboys at Colts: 51.5, the second-highest joint total, between two teams who have conceded 213 and 222 points.

Rams at Commanders: Los Angeles -5.5 with the total down three; Washington have won two in a row, including 27-10 over Philadelphia.

Broncos at Panthers: Denver -2.5 on the road at 6-2, with a point differential of plus seven that is twenty-nine behind the next-closest six-win team.

Texans at Chargers: 40.5, joint second-lowest; the Chargers are 0-7 and score 14.14 a game, the fewest in the NFL.

Packers at Patriots: the only total on the board that has not moved, at 46.5; New England are 5-3, Green Bay 5-3 without Micah Parsons.

No Troca de Gambila, você pode explorar todas as previsões para o NFL, as apostas finais para esta jornada e as probabilidades para cada partida.