World Cup Knockout Stage: Favorites That Could Collapse in the Round of 32

Last Updated on julho 2, 2026 11:06 am by Erwin Noguera

The FIFA World Cup knockout stage has a reputation for producing unforgettable upsets.

Once the group stage ends, previous results matter very little. Every match becomes a 90-minute test of composure, tactical discipline and execution. Tournament history is filled with heavy favorites who looked unbeatable before suffering a shocking elimination at the first knockout hurdle.

This year’s Round of 32 features several established powers that remain favored to advance. However, their paths are far more dangerous than they may appear on paper.

Here are four favorites that have legitimate reasons to worry.

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World Cup Knockout Stage: Spain vs. Austria

Why Spain is Vulnerable?

Spain dominated possession throughout the group stage, but possession alone does not guarantee knockout success.

Pedri and Lamine Yamal have controlled matches brilliantly, yet Spain occasionally struggled to convert lengthy spells of possession into clear scoring opportunities. Against organized defensive teams, patience can quickly turn to frustration, and a slow start can invite unnecessary pressure.

Why Austria Could Pull the Upset?

Austria has quietly become one of the tournament’s most disciplined teams.

Its defensive structure has consistently limited high-quality chances, while rapid counterattacks have punished opponents that commit too many players forward. Austria is also dangerous from set pieces, an area where knockout matches are frequently decided.

If Spain becomes impatient, Austria has the tactical discipline to capitalize.

Spain still deserves favorite status.

However, Austria’s style makes this an uncomfortable draw that could easily remain scoreless deep into the second half.

World Cup Knockout Stage: Portugal vs. Croácia

Why Portugal is Vulnerable?

Portugal enters the Round of 32 playing excellent football, but this matchup offers almost no margin for error.

Bruno Fernandes has been outstanding creatively, Rafael Leão continues to attack defenders with confidence, and Rúben Dias has organized an impressive defense. Even so, Portugal has occasionally struggled against teams willing to defend compactly and slow the tempo.

Croatia specializes in exactly that type of match.

Why Croatia Can Pull the Upset?

Croatia’s experience in major tournaments cannot be ignored.

Joško Gvardiol leads one of the competition’s most organized defenses, while Luka Sučić has successfully taken on greater creative responsibility in midfield. Andrej Kramarić remains capable of deciding close matches with limited opportunities.

Croatia rarely loses tactical discipline, making it extremely dangerous in elimination games.

This could become one of the closest matches of the Round of 32.

Portugal’s squad depth provides an advantage, but Croatia has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to frustrate elite opponents on the biggest stage.

World Cup Knockout Stage: Colombia vs. Ghana

Why Colombia Is Vulnerable?

Colombia has impressed throughout the group stage and has earned recognition as one of the tournament’s strongest dark horses.

That success, however, creates new expectations.

Luis Díaz has carried much of the attacking responsibility, while Richard Ríos has controlled the midfield with maturity beyond his international experience. Colombia has looked balanced, but knockout matches often become increasingly physical, something that could disrupt its rhythm.

Why Ghana Can Pull the Upset?

Ghana has embraced the underdog role from the opening match of the tournament.

Mohammed Kudus has consistently created problems with his direct running and creativity, while Thomas Partey provides leadership and defensive stability in midfield. Ghana also possesses enough athleticism to compete with Colombia for every second ball.

If the Black Stars can force an open game, they have the attacking quality to punish defensive mistakes.

Colombia enters as the deserved favorite.

Even so, Ghana’s pace and physical style make this one of the Round of 32’s most unpredictable contests.

World Cup Knockout Stage: Argentina vs. Cape Verde

Why Argentina Is Vulnerable?

Argentina entered the knockout stage as one of the tournament favorites after finishing at the top of its group with an unbeaten record. As the defending world champion, however, every match brings enormous pressure. Anything short of another deep run would be viewed as a disappointment.

Julián Álvarez has led the attack with clinical finishing, while Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister have controlled the tempo in midfield. Defensively, Cristian Romero has anchored one of the tournament’s most reliable back lines.

Despite those strengths, Argentina has occasionally struggled to break down opponents that defend with numbers behind the ball. If chances are not converted early, frustration can quickly become a factor in knockout football.

Why Cape Verde Can Pull the Upset?

Cape Verde has become one of the biggest stories of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The African side reached the Round of 32 through disciplined defending, relentless work rate, and excellent organization. Rather than relying on possession, Cape Verde has waited patiently for transition opportunities before attacking with speed.

Forward Dailon Livramento has emerged as one of the tournament’s breakout players thanks to his movement and composure in front of goal, while Jamiro Monteiro has provided leadership and balance in midfield.

With virtually no external pressure, Cape Verde can play freely, making it a dangerous opponent for any favorite.

Argentina remains the clear favorite because of its superior squad depth, tournament experience, and attacking quality. Even so, Cape Verde has consistently exceeded expectations throughout the tournament. If it keeps the match close into the second half and forces Argentina to chase the game, the pressure on the defending champions will continue to grow.

It would still take a remarkable performance for Cape Verde to advance, but the knockout stage has repeatedly shown that organized underdogs can make life extremely difficult for football’s biggest powers.

Why the Knockout Stage Changes Everything

The Round of 32 rewards discipline more than reputation.

Group-stage performances create confidence, but they offer no guarantees once elimination football begins. Tactical flexibility, squad depth and experience become increasingly important, while one defensive mistake or missed opportunity can erase weeks of outstanding play.

That is precisely why World Cup history remembers so many shocking upsets.