AFC North Predictions Before Week 1

Last Updated on agosto 27, 2026 4:51 pm by Erwin Noguera

Two weeks ago, we wrote that Pittsburgh’s preseason game against Green Bay would give a signal, because Mike McCarthy had said publicly, he wanted Aaron Rodgers to play.

Rodgers did not play. Then he did not play against the Jets either, or Pittsburgh was shut out 17-0. A 42-year-old quarterback will take his first live snap of the year in a regular-season game.

That is the clearest thing the preseason told us about the AFC North, and it is not the only question that has been answered. Cleveland has named it its starter. Cincinnati still has not found a swing tackle. And the market has quietly moved on Baltimore.

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Here are the final calls before it counts.

The Predicted Order of Finish

1. Baltimore Ravens — 10-7, division winners

2. Cincinnati Bengals — 10-7, wild card

3. Pittsburgh Steelers — 8-9

4. Cleveland Browns — 5-12

Current division odds: Ravens -105, Bengals +170, Steelers +550, Browns +2200.

1. Baltimore Ravens

The favorite, and the market has grown slightly less certain; Baltimore has drifted from -120 a fortnight ago to -105 hoje.

The case has not changed. Lamar Jackson is the best quarterback in the division, Derrick Henry is still beside him, and signing Trey Hendrickson away from Cincinnati gave them a pass rush to sit alongside Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton. Jesse Minter won his head coaching debut.

The problem is the number attached to them. Baltimore’s regular-season win total is set at 11.5, while power-rating models project them at around 9.3 wins. That is a gap of more than two full games between what the market is asking you to pay for and what the underlying projections say.

The injury list does not help. Centre Ethan Pocic, cornerbacks Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey, and receiver Zay Flowers have all been managing issues through August.

Prediction: 10-7 and the division. They have the best players and the fewest genuine unknowns. They are not an eleven-win team.

2. Cincinnati Bengals

The higher ceiling, the shorter price than a fortnight ago at +170, and the same single-variable season.

If Burrow makes sixteen or seventeen starts, Cincinnati is the better team. The defensive front was rebuilt from the ground up after Hendrickson left; Dexter Lawrence arrived from the Giants for the tenth overall pick, with Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe alongside him. The schedule of opposing offences is among the easiest in the league, and the underlying numbers last season were better than the record.

What has not been fixed is the offensive line. Zac Taylor on the swing tackle competition after the Chicago game: “I think that’s still pretty open. There are guys we’re still looking at, and I wouldn’t say there are any decisions we’ve made there.”

The numbers behind that concern are stark. Orlando Brown Jr. allowed nine sacks over 733 pass-blocking snaps last season. Amarius Mims allowed 35 pressures over 694. Both start; neither is being benched, and there is no reliable reinforcement behind them. For a team whose entire season depends on one quarterback staying upright, that is the wrong unit to leave unresolved.

Taylor is also into a fourth season without a playoff appearance. A healthy Burrow, a rebuilt defense and a soft schedule leave no acceptable excuse.

Prediction: 10-7, wild card. Same record as Baltimore, losing the division on tiebreakers.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

The preseason was a disaster, and the reasons are structural rather than cosmetic.

Rodgers has taken no live snaps. McCarthy was weeks saying he wanted him on the field, then rested him twice. Whatever is behind that- careful direction of a 42-year-old, or something the club has chosen not to discuss- Pittsburgh opens the season with a quarterback who has not thrown a competitive pass since January.

Behind him, the situation is unresolved enough that Pittsburgh may keep four quarterbacks on the 53 and cut elsewhere to do it. Mason Rudolph sat out the Jets game, which reads as confirmation he is the primary backup. Drew Allar was excellent in his debut: 10 of 13, 153 yards, two touchdowns and a rushing score, then completed under 50% in the shutout. Will Howard threw two interceptions before the outing.

The secondary is the bigger worry. Jalen Ramsey is on PUP with a July knee injury, Joey Porter Jr. has not practiced since aggravating a back problem, and Jaquan Brisker has been out more than a week. On offence, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr. and first-round tackle Max Iheanachor have all missed over a week.

There is still a case. McCarthy knows how to build an offence around Rodgers, and the Warren-Dowdle backfield gives him the power running element he prefers. But the schedule is backloaded, the division has two contenders, and the chances after a slow start are nil.

Prediction: 8-9. Models have them at 8.2 wins. That feels right.

4. Cleveland Browns

The quarterback question is settled: Deshaun Watson starts Week 1 against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders backing up.

Watson earned it on efficiency: 11 of 15 for 126 yards with no turnovers in his one meaningful preseason appearance, after throwing six interceptions across four practice days earlier in camp. Todd Monken chose the safer option over the more interesting one.

He has also missed 66 games over five seasons, and Cleveland traded Myles Garrett to the Rams for Jared Verse, a first-round pick and additional compensation. That was the correct decision for a team in this position. It also ends any argument that the Browns intend to compete this year.

Prediction: 5-12. What this season decides is whether Cleveland finally commits to a young quarterback. That is worth something. It is not worth wins.

The Bets

Fade Baltimore over 11.5. This is the strongest position on the board. A win total of two full games above the model projection, on a team with a first-year head coach and four rotation players managing injuries, is asking a great deal. The under is the play.

Cincinnati +170 to win the division remains the value if (and only if) you believe Burrow starts sixteen or seventeen games. That has been the Bengals’ entire strategy for years, and it keeps not working out, but the price compensates.

Pittsburgh under 8.5. This is the contrarian call. The popular position is the over, and models sit at 8.2. Given a quarterback with no preseason reps, a secondary missing three contributors, and a schedule that gets harder late, the under is where the evidence points.

Cleveland under. Straightforward.

What Would Change This

A slow Bengals September. Cincinnati digs early holes almost every year. In a division where the favorite is barely a win better, a 1-2 start ends things before October. Check back after Week 3.

Rodgers’s first month. If Pittsburgh’s quarterback looks sharp without preseason work, the 8-9 prediction is too low, and McCarthy will have been vindicated. If he looks his age, Allar plays before Christmas.

Burrow’s availability. Everything about Cincinnati, always.

Baltimore’s health. The Ravens have consistently been better in September than in January. Humphrey, Wiggins, Pocic, and Flowers all need to be on the field in December for the division to be settled early.

Two teams with realistic Super Bowl paths: one running back with a quarterback in his forties, and one that has already traded its best player. The AFC North has been the deepest division in football for years. This season, it is the tightest at the top and the widest at the bottom.

The season opens on September 9.