MLB: Playoff Picture Taking Shape

Last Updated on setembro 24, 2026 5:03 pm by Erwin Noguera

Pittsburgh will finish this season with a winning record and miss the playoffs.

The winner of the American League West will finish at or below .500 and host a postseason series.

Three days remain in the regular season. The National League is effectively decided, the American League has two live races, and the format is about to produce one of the strangest brackets in recent memory.

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The Brackets as They Stand

Liga Americana

Liga Nacional

The National League Is Finished

All six places are settled, and the only question left is seeking.

Milwaukee at 98-59 and the Dodgers at 97-60 have identical run differentials of +200: the two best in baseball, separated by a single game in the standings. They will take the two byes.

Atlanta are locked into the third seed at 92-65 and will host a wild-card series.

And the three wild cards are all tied at 87-70. Philadelphia, the Cubs and San Diego arrive at the same record from very different places: the Cubs have a +146-run differential, Philadelphia +31, San Diego +34. San Diego are also the hottest of the three at 8-2 in their last ten.

Arizona, at 83-74, are down to 1.6%. The race we called a coin flip a fortnight ago resolved itself, and San Diego’s nine-win surge was what did it.

The AL Central: One Game, and a Bye Attached

The most valuable single game in baseball.

Cleveland led by one at 82-75 and won six in a row, going 8-2 across their last ten. The White Sox are 81-76 and have won three straight themselves.

Both are going to the playoffs (98.2% and 98.5% respectively) because the runner-up takes a wild card. What they are fighting over is the second seed and the first-round bye, which is more worthy than any other prize still available.

The projection disagrees with the standings. Despite trailing by a game, the White Sox are given a 53.8% chance of the division against Cleveland’s 46.2%, and the reason is in the third column: Chicago’s run differential is +45, Cleveland’s is +3.

We wrote a week ago that when a September streak and a season-long run differential disagree, you back the differential. Cleveland’s six-game streak has given them the lead. The model still has the White Sox. That gets settled by Sunday.

The AL West Is an Elimination Game

Houston and Texas are both 78-79. One of them is going to the playoffs, and the other is going home.

Texas is 66.7% to reach October. Houston is 35.2%. Those two figures add to essentially 100, which tells you everything: there is no wild-card route for the loser. Toronto and Baltimore, the only clubs close enough to matter, are 77-81 and both under 1.2%.

Whoever wins this will host a playoff series with a negative run differential. Texas is at -37, Houston at -52. Texas projects 81.2 wins, Houston to 80.0. One of them becomes the third seed in the American League.

Texas holds the edge for two reasons: a 6-4 last ten against Houston’s 3-7, and a significantly better home record at 44-35. Houston passed 3-7 in the stretch where they needed to be at their best.

The Yankees Are the Best Team Without a Bye

90-67. A run differential of +134; the best in the American League by 48 runs. And a first-round elimination series.

This is the structural story we flagged last week, and it has now become fact. Byes go to the top two division winners, not the top two records. The American League’s division leaders are Tampa Bay, the AL Central winner at roughly 83 wins, and the AL West winner at roughly 80.

So, New York is the fourth seed. They will host Boston, the fifth seed at 84-73, in a best-of-three. The winner then travels to face a rested opponent.

Boston at +79 is also better than two of the three division winners. Two of the four best teams in the American League by run differential must survive a coin-flip series that two considerably worse teams get to skip.

That is the single most important fact for anyone pricing the AL bracket, and it has not changed since we raised it.

Eliminated With Winning Numbers

Detroit finishes 74-85 with a run differential of +71.

That figure is better than Cleveland’s (+3), better than the White Sox (+45), and enormously better than Houston (-52) and Texas (-37). Three teams with worse underlying seasons than Detroit’s are going to the playoffs. The Tigers went 15-27 in one-run games, and that was the season.

Pittsburgh finished around 80-77 with a +31 differential, and they are eliminated.

Put those two facts beside the AL West. A Pirates team with a winning record and a positive run differential is out. An Astros or Rangers team that will finish at or below .500, having been outscored across six months, gets a home series and a shot at a title.

That is not a complaint about justice. Divisions are the structure, and everyone knew the rules in April. It is, however, the clearest illustration available of why the American League bracket should be priced differently from the National League one.

Where We Were Right, and Where We Were Wrong

Right on Houston and Texas. We called both pretenders a week ago on the basis of negative run differentials in a weak division. Both are 78-79, and one of them will host a playoff series.

Right on Detroit. We called them the best team not going to October. They are eliminated with the second-best run differential in the AL outside the East.

Right on San Diego. We wrote that their 9-1 run mattered because it arrived on top of a standings cushion rather than instead of one. They are at 99.2%, and Arizona are at 1.6%.

Right on the Yankees and the format. Confirmed rather than predicted, but it is the most useful thing on this page.

Half wrong on Cleveland. We said the streak would not hold up against the underlying numbers. They have since won six in a row and taken the division lead. The projection still favors the White Sox, so the argument is not settled, but the standings currently say we were early.

And we were wrong about Toronto twice. We called their climb unlikely, then said we were wrong about that, then said the initial read looked closer to right. They finished 77-81. The first answer was the correct one, and we talked ourselves out of it.

What Is Left

Three days. Four or five games each.

AL Central decides a bye. Cleveland led by one with the worse underlying numbers and the better recent form.

The AL West decides the season. Houston and Texas are level, and only one goes.

The NL decides only seeding, with three clubs tied at 87-70 for wild-card positioning.

And the two best baseball teams are already waiting. Milwaukee at 98-59 and the Dodgers at 97-60, both at +200, both rested, both with byes.

The National League will send its six best teams. The American League will send a club that was outscored all year and leave home one that finished above .500. October starts on Tuesday, and the two brackets are not the same competition.