Última atualização em 20 de julho de 2023 1h16 por Erwin Noguera
The UFC is taking a little break from the Vegas events and is now going to take a trip to London, England, where a massive local star will be battling at the main event of the fight night.
Este evento também será um card empilhado com um dos maiores números de lutas dos últimos eventos, já que poderemos presenciar 15 lutas em uma noite se tudo correr como planejado. A quantidade de poder estelar nesta carta é surpreendente, pois há muitos nomes conhecidos do início ao fim.
Com tantas lutas vem um presentinho bônus dos casamenteiros… Exceto na categoria meio-pesado, temos pelo menos uma luta em cada uma das outras categorias de peso, para que todos os fãs de luta possam ver o que deve ser esperado em cada categoria de peso.
De uma forma ou de outra, as coisas vão ficar divertidas e haverá um pouco de cada tipo de confronto e ação possível para cada fã.
Você pode verificar todos os UFC/MMA Apostas, análise de cada lutador e a aposta final que você pode fazer nesta luta.
UFC Fight Night: Probabilidades e escolhas do cartão de luta Aspinall vs. Tybura – Informações
Quando:
Sábado, 22 de julho, às 12h (horário do leste dos EUA)
Probabilidades de vitória:
Tom Aspinall -476 / Marcin Tybura +331
Molly McCann -222 / Julija Stoliarenko +171
Nathaniel Wood -212 / André Fili +163
André Muniz -238 / Paul Craig +179
Jai Herbert +126 / Tarifas Ziam -161
Lerone Murphy -149 / Josh Culibao +117
Davey Grant +113 / Daniel Marcos -142
Danny Roberts -116 / Jonny Parsons -109
Marc Diakiese +155 / Joel Alvarez -200
Mick Parkin +129 / Jamal Pogues -163
Bryan Barberena +237 / Makhmud Muradov -322
Ketlen Vieira -161 / Pannie Kianzad +126
Chris Duncan -151 / Yanal Ashmouz +119
Bruna Brasil -153 / Shauna Bannon +120
Jafel Filho -128 / Daniel Barez +101
Onde posso assistir?
UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
Por que apostar em Tom Aspinall?
Tom Aspinall (12-3, 9 KO) had eight wins in a row before his unfortunate defeat against Curtis Blaydes. The English fella was ruthless in all of his victories, with the majority ending already in the first round.
Aspinall defeated guys like Alan Baudot, the former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski, Sergey Spivak, and Alexander Volkov. Against Blaydes, we saw him injuring his knee in only 15 seconds of the bout, which was a huge blow for the entire O2 Arena in London, but primarily for Aspinall himself.
Por que apostar em Marcin Tybura?
Marcin Tybura (24-7) is 7-1 in the past eight battles, making a strong case for himself after years of being mediocre. He is one of those fighters who have been around for a long time and have fantastic experience.
Some would say that he presents the borderline between those who can do big things in the UFC and those who are average. His only defeat in recent times was against Alexander Volkov, while on the other side, the Pole defeated Ben Rothwell, Greg Hardy, Walt Harris, and most recently, Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov.
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Analysis:
Aspinall’s explosiveness and movement are two reasons we gave him the advantage over Tybura. The Englishman is more flexible and fluid than his rival, who, even though he has more extensive experience and may be stronger than his rival, can’t respond well to all the attacks from the other side.
We also have one more factor on Aspinall’s side: the crowd at the O2 Arena. That’s going to be a great boost for the host, who should finish the bout before the decisions.
To summarize here, our choice is Aspinall via decision.
UFC Fight Night: Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Por que apostar em Molly McCann?
The 33-year-old McCann, from England, is unranked at 13-5 in a pro career dating to 2015. She is a former Cage Warriors flyweight champion, was born in Liverpool, and even played soccer for that franchise before an injury ended her football career. She’s an Everton fan.
“Meatball” had a three-fight winning streak snapped last time in the Octagon in November in New York City, falling to title contender Erin Blanchfield by first-round submission (Kimura).
Por que apostar em Julija Stoliarenko?
The 30-year-old Stoliarenko, from Lithuania, is also unranked in the women’s flyweight division with a mediocre record of 10-7 overall with two draws and a 1-4 mark in the UFC. A cast member on Season 28 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” she comes off an October first-round TKO loss (punches) to Chelsea Chandler.
Stoliarenko’s lone UFC triumph was an armbar submission of Jessica-Rose Clark at UFC 276. She has nine wins by submission overall and one by decision with three losses by decision, three by KO/TKO, and one by submission.
Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko Betting Analysis:
McCann sure has the power, as well as the striking skills to take a win. Molly is one of the biggest brawlers in the women’s flyweight division who hits hard and who hits often. This explains why both of her last two wins happened by TKO.
Julija Stoliarenko is an expert in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who’s got a BJJ black belt and plenty of experience with submission grappling. Further, the Lithuanian fighter who’s 10-7-2 in her professional MMA career, has 9 wins by submission in her portfolio.
In simple terms, this means that if the McCann vs. Stoliarenko fight goes to the floor, it’s the underdog fighter who’ll have the advantage. However, with the help of her crowd at The O2 Arena, we think McCann is going to pull off the victory via finish.
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili
Por que apostar em Nathaniel Wood?
Wood is a slick customer as well. Despite facing a height and reach disadvantage against most Featherweights, his crafty calf kicking and clinch work has allowed him to succeed thus far — and with style points!
Por que apostar em Andre Fili?
Fili has shared the cage with many of the best Featherweights of the last ten years, and his game has consistently improved as a result.
At his best, Fili is using tricky combinations from both stances to set up his powerful kicks, and he’s also quite good at timing takedowns on advancing opponents after pulling them into a striking match.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili Betting Analysis:
Wood’s previous two fights at Featherweight were impressive, but there are some caveats. Namely, in Rosa, he faced a man he outclassed on the feet, and in Jourdain, he was the far superior wrestler. Neither man could fully compete with him in those areas, and thus he was able to take over. Credit to him, that’s what a good fighter is supposed to do! Still, Fili feels like a more rounded threat than either man.
He’s not going to let himself get easily out-kicked at a distance by a far shorter man, nor is he likely to get tossed in the clinch and controlled repeatedly. This feels like a fight where size will be important. Both men are crafty and well-rounded, but Fili’s size and power should shift the odds firmly in his favor.
UFC Fight Night: André Muniz vs. Paul Craig
Por que apostar em André Muniz?
It’s tough to get a full read on Muniz. How does a man submit “Jacare” but then get overwhelmed on the canvas by Brendan Allen? He just didn’t look very sharp in his last appearance, and it remains to be seen if that was a one-off or not.
Por que apostar em Paul Craig?
Craig has one of the weirdest fight styles in the modern UFC, a mix of awkward range kicks, bad double legs, and guard pulls. Fortunately, he’s damn good at pulling off submissions, and his increased confidence over the years did pay off in a very nice win streak.
André Muniz vs. Paul Craig Betting Analysis:
This Middleweight move from Craig it’s a hard read. Size and strength have never appeared to be his problem. Rather than diet and lose muscle, learning how to properly shoot a double leg without falling over would’ve been a far better solution to his recent struggles.
Maybe Craig overpowers Muniz to the floor and then shows off his grappling skill. More likely, he’s surprised by his opponent’s speed on the feet, and his gas tank is shaken by the weight cut. In that case, the odds seem strong that Muniz sprawls and brawls his way to a clear-cut decision win.
UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam
Por que apostar em Jai Herbert?
Herbert doesn’t have the prettiest UFC record, but the “Black Country Banger” has shown some great skills. He’s only lost to talented names — Francisco Trinaldo, Renato Moicano, and Ilia Topuria — and he had some strong moments in all those losses, usually on the strength of his powerful range striking.
Por que apostar na Fares Ziam?
Ziam has failed to make much of a splash in his five UFC fights so far. He’s a pretty technical striker, but he hasn’t yet shown the level of activity or power necessary to break through the lower end of the Lightweight division.
Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam Betting Analysis:
Herbert looks like the better fighter. His striking is more fluid and powerful, and the wrestling seems likely to cancel out. The concerning bit, however, is that he is nearly a decade older than his opponent, and he’s been proven a bit chinny in his previous UFC fights.
Both Trinaldo and Topuria can hit dang hard, of course, but it’s a worrying trend that Herbert does well until he’s suddenly rocked or unconscious. Against a young striker, that’s a problem. However, Ziam hasn’t shown the power or killer instinct necessary, and to be honest, we don’t believe it’ll happen in this fight.
UFC Fight Night: Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao
Por que apostar em Lerone Murphy?
It hasn’t been easy, but Murphy has maintained his perfect record. He’s a mean kickboxer who can do a ton of damage when able to take the top position. His strength and power are notable, but he has had some close calls with getting held down by previous opponents.
Why Bet on Josh Culibao?
Culibao is a crafty kickboxer himself, a rangy fighter who varies his timing to sneak in good shots. In his last bout, his back was against the wall opposite the power kicks of Melsik Baghdasaryan, but he showed off his opportunistic grappling for the first time in jumping the back and scoring a finish.
Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao Betting Analysis:
Culibao will need to pull a similar rabbit out of his hat here. Murphy is tough to deal with on the feet, which is why so many of his opponents spend their time diving for his legs. That’s not typically Culibao’s game, so odds are, this one remains a kickboxing battle.
In a striking match where skill and volume are reasonable even, power tends to make the difference, and that favors Murphy.
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant x Daniel Marcos
Por que apostar em Davey Grant?
A sequência de três vitórias consecutivas de Davey Grant (15-6) – a mais longa desde 2012 – diminuiu graças às derrotas consecutivas na decisão da “Luta da Noite” para Marlon Vera e Adrian Yanez.
Implacável, ele voltou à finalização ao parar Louis Smolka e Raphael Assunção, aumentando seu total de bônus para cinco no processo. Suas 11 finalizações profissionais são divididas em 7:4 entre finalizações e nocautes.
Por que apostar em Daniel Marcos?
O peruano Daniel Marcos (14-0) lutou para superar Brandon Lewis para reivindicar um contrato na Contender Series. A vitória marcou a estreia no octógono contra Saimon Oliveira, que Marcos derrotou a caminho de um nocaute técnico no segundo round.
Análise de apostas de Davey Grant x Daniel Marcos:
O poder e a tenacidade ainda estão presentes para Grant, mas ele tem tido alguns soluços preocupantes ultimamente. Ele perdeu o segundo turno contra o Smolka e os dois primeiros contra o Assunção. Isso não vai funcionar contra um lutador jovem, poderoso e agressivo como Marcos; então ele não pode confiar em mudar as coisas com um grande soco, especialmente porque seu rival carrega seu poder tarde.
Grant is still much more proven and experienced than Marcos, and “Soncora’s” win over Oliveira is somewhat undercut by Oliveira utilizing the worst gameplan imaginable. At 37 years old, though, we can’t be sure the veteran has enough left in the tank. In the end, Daniel out-slugs him to a clear victory.
UFC Fight Night: Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons
Why Bet on Danny Roberts?
Danny Roberts (18-7) opened his UFC career 5-2, notably winning “Fight of the Night” for his victories over Dominique Steele and David Zawada. He now finds himself 2-4 in his last six, including a knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena in Nov. 2022.
Why Bet on Jonny Parsons?
Jonny Parsons (8-3) rode a four-fight win streak into Contender Series, where he entered as a sizeable underdog against Solomon Renfro. He nearly succumbed to an early flurry from “The Black Dragon,” but battled back to win the last two rounds and claim a split decision win.
“The Sluggernaut” fights for the first time in 21 months, as a planned Feb. 2022 debut against Micheal Gillmore fell through.
Análise de apostas de Danny Roberts x Jonny Parsons:
Embora Parsons possua um Muay Thai decente, sua vitória sobre a Renfro se deveu menos às habilidades de Parsons e mais à incapacidade da Renfro de manter sua produção. Ao mesmo tempo, Roberts estaria 1-5 nos últimos cinco anos se os juízes tivessem pontuado corretamente sua luta com Ramazan Emeev. Ele é tão frágil que não é confiável, mesmo contra alguém tão limitado.
É mais uma escolha intuitiva do que qualquer coisa, mas vamos com Parsons. Embora se reconheça que ele está um passo abaixo das pessoas que derrotaram Roberts antes, ele parece ser o lutador mais confiável. Resumindo, um knockdown prova a diferença em uma batalha de trocação competitiva.
UFC Fight Night: Marc Diakiese x Joel Alvarez
Por que apostar em Marc Diakiese?
Depois de dominar o BAMMA, Marc Diakiese (16-6) lutou para um início perfeito (3-0) no UFC, com destaque para uma finalização letal de um soco sobre Teemu Packalen. Desde então, ele perdeu seis de 10, entre eles uma decisão unânime para Michael Johnson na última vez.
Por que apostar em Joel Alvarez?
“El Fenomeno” deixou para trás uma estreia malsucedida no UFC e venceu quatro vitórias consecutivas, incluindo finalizações surpreendentes de Joe Duffy e Thiago Moises. Seus esforços lhe renderam uma luta com Arman Tsarukyan, que derrotou Alvarez e lhe rendeu sua primeira derrota nos acréscimos desde 2015. Isso marca sua primeira luta em quase 17 meses.
Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez Betting Analysis:
While he made his name as a knockout artist, Diakiese has always been willing to wrestle; in fact, it’s what carried him past Frankie Perez in his second UFC bout. That said, he seems to have lost all confidence in his standup, which is bad news here.
We saw against Damir Ismagulov and Tsarukyan that Alvarez is far from invincible off of his back, but he’s more than good enough to punish the sloppy shots Diakiese has become increasingly reliant on. However, If he fought perfectly, “Bone Crusher” could theoretically tear up Alvarez’s legs and potshot his way to victory. As is, he’s too prone to the poor decision-making that Alvarez thrives on punishing. When the dust settles, “El Fenomeno” finds his neck inside for five minutes.
UFC Fight Night: Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues
Por que apostar em Mick Parkin?
Mick Parkin (6-0) went 7-0-1 as an amateur before turning professional in 2019. He quickly won his first five professional bouts to earn a spot on Contender Series, where he choked out Eduardo Neves to secure a UFC contract. All of his professional wins have come inside two rounds, five of them by knockout.
Por que apostar em Jamal Pogues?
Three years after cruising past Marcos Brigagao in his first Contender Series appearance, Jamal Pogues (10-3) returned to the program as a Heavyweight to beat Paul Renato Jr. He made his UFC debut six months later, powering through injury to win a unanimous decision over Josh Parisian.
Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues Betting Analysis:
You don’t get a lot of genuinely skilled Heavyweights under 30, so seeing two of them square off is a treat.
While it’s close to a mirror match, we’ve got Pogues by a hair. His hands look a bit sharper and a damn sight faster than Parkin’s, and though he’s still carrying a lot of excess weight, his UFC debut was a marked improvement from his second Contender Series bout.
Parkin boasts better top control, but Pogues is quite adept at getting back to his feet and showed off some wrestling skills of his own against Parisian. Plus, he’s a lot more seasoned than Parkin in terms of opponent quality and experience in deep waters. We say he takes over down the stretch for a competitive decision.
UFC Fight Night: Bryan Barberena vs. Makhmud Muradov
Why Bet on Bryan Barberena?
Barberena — fighting for his UFC life after a 3-5 skid — put together three straight wins over Darian Weeks, Matt Brown, and Robbie Lawler. The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of submission losses to Rafael dos Anjos and Gunnar Nelson. His 13 professional finishes include 11 by knockout.
Why Bet on Makhmud Muradov?
Though dogged by inactivity, Makhmud Muradov (25-8) fought his way to three straight UFC wins, two of which earned him Performance of the Night. Then came a come-from-behind submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert, followed by a decision defeat to Contender Series grad Caio Borralho.
Bryan Barberena vs. Makhmud Muradov Betting Analysis:
This just seems like a downright nightmarish matchup for Barberena. If “Bam Bam’s” recent efforts are anything to go by, Muradov can take him down whenever he wants, especially since Barberena will be extremely undersized at 185.
Even if Barberena did somehow channel the spirit of Jose Aldo to keep it standing, Muradov is too fast and elusive for Barberena to hunt down. The Latter’s only chance lies in the first gassing, but it’s hard to get any real attrition going when he can’t corner him or stop him from taking it to the mat. In the end, Muradov dominates on top to sweep him on the scorecards.
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad
Por que apostar em Ketlen Vieira?
Ketlen Vieira (13-3) defeated Miesha Tate and edged out Holly Holm in back-to-back UFC main events. Fortune did not stay on her side, as she dropped an equally controversial split decision to Raquel Pennington her next time out. She’s submitted four opponents and knocked out another two.
Why Bet on Pannie Kianzad?
Pannie Kianzad (17-6) — a The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 finalist — struggled to an 0-2 UFC start. She’s since found her footing with a 5-1 run, which most recently saw her bounce back from a loss to Pennington by beating Lina Lansberg.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad Betting Analysis:
Kianzad’s mental health issues derailed her after an 8-0 pro start, but she refused to fade away. We’d like to see her hard work rewarded, but just don’t think it’ll happen here. She struggled mightily to stay out of the clinch against Pennington and Lansberg, putting her square in Vieira’s wheelhouse.
Vieira has also developed her striking to the point where we’re not sure Kianzad has a clear edge on the feet, especially if she neglects lateral movement as she did for the first two rounds of the Lansberg fight. Pannie has defied the odds before, but there’s just not enough going her way in this matchup. In other words, Ketlen holds her own at a distance and controls the clinch en route to a decision victory.
UFC Fight Night: Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Por que apostar em Chris Duncan?
Chris Duncan (10-1) lost his undefeated record to Viacheslav Borshchev in his first Contender Series bid, only to win a contract 10 months later by smashing Charlie Campbell in his return. He then battled Omar Morales in his Octagon proper debut, leaning on his wrestling to win a split decision.
Why Bet on Yanal Ashmouz?
Despite beating Dennis Hughes in PFL’s Challenger Series, “Red Fox” failed to secure a tournament berth. Exactly one year later, he joined UFC instead and promptly upset Sam Patterson with a 75-second knockout. The win marked his fourth knockout and sixth professional finish overall.
Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz Betting Analysis:
On paper, this is a very winnable fight for Duncan. Ashmouz is a powerhouse, but he’s not the sort of technician who could deal with a properly utilized reach advantage. The thing is, Chris is both extremely slow and extremely hittable; he gets rocked with worrying regularity despite boasting genuinely decent kickboxing technique.
Ashmouz showed against Patterson that he can turn a single slip-up into a fight-ending barrage, and he’ll have no shortage of opportunities against this rival. Duncan has a shot if he can keep it at a distance and shut down Yanal’s wrestling, but that’s a lot to ask from someone so prone to getting clipped. In short, Red Fox blasts him with a counter and piles on the hurt until the ref intervenes.
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil x Shauna Bannon
Por que apostar na Bruna Brasil?
Bruna Brasil (8-3-1) encerrou uma sequência impecável (7-0) ao arrasar Marnic Mann com um chute na cabeça no Contender Series. Isso levou à estreia no UFC em abril de 2023, contra Denise Gomes, que parou o Brasil com uma série de socos no meio do segundo. Ela nocauteou três adversários profissionais e finalizou outros dois.
Por que apostar em Shauna Bannon?
Shauna Bannon (5-0) encerrou sua carreira amadora com uma corrida perfeita (5-0) antes de se tornar profissional em 2022. Ela dividiu seu tempo nas categorias pagas entre Invicta e Cage Legacy, derrotando mais recentemente Minna Grusander em março de 2023.
Análise de apostas Bruna Brasil x Shauna Bannon:
Para ser justo, a derrota do Brasil para Gomes envelheceu muito bem graças à agressão de Gomes sobre Yazmin Jauregui, mas os sinais de alerta do “The Special One” foram difíceis de ignorar. Ela parecia incapaz de controlar a distância, recuando lentamente com as mãos para baixo, não importando quantas vezes seu rival interviesse e a atacasse com combinações.
Embora o Brasil possa ocasionalmente compensar com contra-ataques certeiros, eles não foram vistos em lugar nenhum. Isso parece uma sentença de morte contra Bannon, que é rápido e tecnicamente experiente o suficiente para punir esses lapsos defensivos de sino a sino. Este último também possui um jogo de topo forte para o qual Bruna aparentemente tem poucas respostas, então “Mama B” não tem falta de planos alternativos.
No final, Bannon controla os pés e o tatame para manter intacto seu recorde de invencibilidade.
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho x Daniel Barez
Por que apostar em Jafel Filho?
Jafel Filho (14-3) estendeu sua seqüência de vitórias para cinco ao derrotar Roybert Echeverria no Contender Series, ganhando um contrato com o UFC no processo. Ele então enfrentou o principal candidato, Muhammad Mokaev, e apesar de ter machucado gravemente a perna do “The Punisher” com uma chave de joelho no terceiro assalto, ele acabou sucumbindo a um mata-leão.
“Pastor” não vê os juízes desde 2014 e ostenta oito vitórias por finalização em seu cartel.
Por que apostar em Daniel Barez?
Daniel Barez (16-5) – vencedor das seis lutas anteriores – começou forte contra Carlos Hernandez no Contender Series, mas não conseguiu igualar seu ritmo a caminho de uma derrota por decisão dividida. Ele logo retornou ao circuito latino-americano, onde acumulou quatro resultados consecutivos no primeiro round.
Análise de apostas Jafel Filho x Daniel Barez:
O fator decisivo aqui é o tanque de gasolina de Barez. Pelo nosso dinheiro, ele tem as mãos mais rápidas e pesadas dos dois, além de habilidades de wrestling suficientes para tirar o jogo de finalização matador de Filho da mesa. Ao mesmo tempo, ele desacelerou consideravelmente contra Hernandez, e uma série de finalizações rápidas sobre adversários infelizes não me convencem de que ele resolveu o problema.
Estamos apenas inclinando-nos na direção de Barez, em grande parte por causa de quão prejudiciais são seus chutes baixos e como Filho reage mal a eles. Ele causa dano suficiente em Filho nos dois primeiros rounds para vencer na decisão, apesar da investida tardia de “Pastor”.
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