UFC Fight Night: Probabilidades e escolhas do card de luta Moicano x Saint Denis

Depois de um evento tão grande como o Noche UFC, seria de se esperar que Dana White levasse as coisas de volta ao APEX, mas, em vez disso, teremos uma divertida Fight Night na Accor Arena em Paris, França, que estará repleta de muitos talentos internacionais.

A luta principal terá um confronto interessante para os leves, com Renato Moicano e o local Benoit Saint-Denis se enfrentando no que pode acabar sendo uma briga acirrada entre dois lutadores emocionantes.

O co-evento principal prevê uma possível luta eliminatória de título, com o lutador local, Nassourdine Imanov, enfrentando o americano Brendan Allen em uma luta de peso médio que todos estamos ansiosos para ver.

Além dos lutadores franceses nas lutas principais, temos outros 7 representantes locais no card, e eles tentarão agradar o público com finalizações e performances dominantes ao longo do evento.

Temos 14 lutas, sendo 6 delas no card principal e 8 nas preliminares, e este evento será um ótimo momento para conhecer os novos talentos, já que muitos lutadores do card ainda estão na corrida para tornar seus nomes conhecidos, e esta pode ser a chance deles.

Você pode verificar todos os UFC/MMA apostas, a análise de cada lutador e a aposta final que você pode fazer nessas lutas.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info

Noite de Luta do UFC: Benoit Saint-Denis x Renato Moicano

Por que apostar em Benoit Saint-Denis?

It’s tricky with Benoit Saint-Denis because we’re currently unsure what to make of his cardio. Almost all of his fights have seen him win in very dominant fashion early, without having to really face much resistance on the return.

However, against Dustin Poirier last time, he crumbled under the pressure when it was clear that Dustin wasn’t going anywhere and he eventually gassed out.

Infelizmente, houve muitos rumores de infecção por estafilococos naquela semana, e acreditamos que o BSD já confirmou que ele tinha estafilococos e que isso o afetou.

Therefore, we don’t know whether to lean into the cardio narrative in this fight. Fighters like to make excuses, so perhaps his cardio is that bad, or perhaps he’s being transparent.

Unfortunately, we think it’s the key piece of the puzzle for this fight, because a win for Renato Moicano very much relies on it.

Por que apostar em Renato Moicano?

Money Moicano is a a BJJ ace, so it’s fair to assume that he can survive on the mat against Benoit in the same way that Poirier did, and provide a similar amount of resistance.

Therefore, if BSD’s cardio problems against The Diamond were a true indication of his actual gas tank, Moicano has a very achievable path to victory. Especially, in a five rounder where he’s got a long time to survive if his opponent starts to fade by Round 3.

Outside of the cardio dynamic though, Moicano is also in a weird position when it comes to durability. He’s been frail historically, seen in the early KO losses to Korean Zombie and Rafael Fiziev, but he’s also shown some impressive toughness against Jalin Turner and Rafael dos Anjos.

Análise Final das Apostas: Renato Moicano x Benoit Saint-Denis

Se BSD tiver muito mais na manga e puder lutar duro por mais tempo quando não estiver sendo prejudicado pelo estafilococo, então seu estilo agressivo deve ser demais para seu oponente brasileiro.

Regardless, we think it’s fair to say that Moicano is in real trouble early in this fight, and he’s going to have to really persevere and fight physically and mentally if he wants to make it to the second round.

BSD has all the finishing upside early in the fight, and the main narrative that would see him come unstuck isn’t even a confirmed weakness.

It’s possible he loses this fight if Moicano can survive and turn the tide, but he could also very simply blitz the frail Brazilian, and score a dominant early win on home soil.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

Por que apostar em Nassourdine Imavov?

We think Nassourdine Imavov is capable of keeping this fight standing, in the same way that Chris Curtis did. Whilst we don’t think Imavov’s pure takedown defence is quite as good as Curtis’, his striking output and overall IQ are much higher, which should negate the number of takedown attempts he faces in the first place.

Vimos Imavov enfrentar o próprio Curtis, e ele o destruiu completamente até que o weaseling aconteceu. Em nossa opinião, Imavov é um lutador que continua a impressionar e é subestimado pela maioria.

Tentamos apostar Jared Cannonier contra ele, então, até recentemente, também éramos algumas dessas pessoas.

Por que apostar em Brendan Allen?

Brendan Allen is existing on borrowed time in the division’s top 10, or so we think. However, he is still the guy that barely got past Jacob Malkoun, and the guy that got KO’d by Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis.

His time in the top has shown him massively overachieve due to favourable match-making – A good grappler with mediocre strikes will always do well against Paul Craig, Andre Muniz, Sam Alvey, and Krystof Jotko. The Malkoun win was by the skin of his teeth. The only very impressive performance was against Bruno Silva.

Análise Final das Apostas: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

Acreditamos que Nassourdine Imavov pode ter um desempenho dominante aqui e mostrar que há níveis entre os atletas de elite de 185 libras e aqueles que não pertencem a esse grupo.

Esse confronto deve ser o que finalmente tirará Allen do top 10 da divisão e deixará alguém mais merecedor entrar.

Noite de Luta do UFC: William Gomis x Joanderson Brito

Por que apostar em William Gomis?

Gomis is one of the more successful Frenchmen on the UFC’s roster, but we guess the issue is that he’s a pretty boring fighter to watch. His striking is pretty inoffensive and risk-averse.

He likes to do his work from distance and avoid a brawl as much as possible. He’ll mix in takedowns too, but he’s not a beast wrestler and doesn’t really do too much with them when he gets them. Your classic decision guy that’ll lull you to sleep.

Por que apostar em Joanderson Brito?

Quando Joanderson fez sua estreia no UFC, pensamos que ele poderia ser a próxima grande estrela brasileira. Durante a luta com Bill Algeo, ele desacelerou e seu cardio o fez perder a luta.

Esperávamos que Jonathan Pearce o vencesse, e parecíamos gênios enquanto Pearce limpava o chão com ele, então uma finalização oportunista virou o roteiro. Estávamos furiosos, mas quando ele foi reservado contra Jack Shore, e mais uma vez nos convencemos de que o fade estava ligado.

Brito has grown a bit since the Algeo debut though – we think his fight IQ has improved, as has that cardio. The way he utilised the leg kick against Jack Shore was so smart, we weren’t even mad that we lost our bet then, all we could do was applaud.

Análise Final das Apostas: William Gomis x Joanderson Brito

It feels to us like Brito could land half the amount of strikes as Gomis does, and he’d be still win the round with how much he does with them.

That’s not to say that Gomis can’t win this fight. If he can stay to the outside, use his range, mix in takedowns, he can win a decision on home soil.

Brito’s got too much fight ending capabilities on his side to be discredited, and we expect him to win here one way or another.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Batalha de Kevin Jousset x Bryan

Por que apostar em Kevin Jousset?

Apostamos em Kevin Jousset em sua estreia no UFC. Em grande parte, devido ao fato de que Kiefer Crosbie é um roleplayer sem absolutamente nenhum negócio lutando em competições de nível UFC/Bellator/PFL.

Jousset didn’t even look amazing to us on tape, we just knew we’d only get a few bites of the cherry to fade the Conor McGregor wannabe. He didn’t even look that great, and the finish seemed a bit fortunate.

However, that was followed up with a much better showing against Song Kenan, demonstrating that decent striking game that he’s been sharpening at City Kickboxing.

Por que apostar em Bryan Battle?

Bryan Battle is a guy that we have lowkey been very impressed by since making his UFC debut. We didn’t expect him to amount to much coming off TUF, but the way he’s developed his entire game has been refreshing.

Guys like Ange Loosa can be tricky to deal with if you’re fringe UFC calibre, but Battle went out there and styled on him. He’s developed into a threat in multiple areas as well, where his striking is good and dangerous enough to compliment his already good grappling.

Análise Final das Apostas: Batalha de Kevin Jousset x Bryan

Jousset was lowkey a pretty bad grappler on the regional scene. He faced some dodgy competition, and even started mixing in takedowns himself, but his kickboxing background really shows itself, and we think a lot of people who aren’t familiar with his overall game are going to be surprised at how one-dimensional he suddenly looks in this fight. We think Battle can wipe the floor with him on the mat.

Claro, ainda damos a Jousset a vantagem de ataque, mas o principal ponto de discussão que ainda nos deixa confiantes em Battle é a periculosidade geral.

Jousset is a technical point fighter, but we don’t really see him using the striking superiority to stop Battle dead. And even on the contrary, Battle has looked lethal himself at times, winning in under a minute on two occasions against two UFC veterans that previously hadn’t been finished in the organisation. Even if not, the longer the fight lasts, the more of an opportunity it gives Battle to get himself into grappling positions.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda

Por que apostar em Morgan Charrière?

Charriere é um lutador impressionante que achamos que muitos tinham grandes esperanças, mas então o subestimado Chepe Mariscal colocou um amassado nos planos. Morgan é um grande lutador, mas sua carreira tem sido marcada por derrotas por decisão competitiva.

We always say that there’s no smoke without fire when it comes to these kind of trends, so we was definitely nervous that Morgan would lose on the scorecards to Chepe, even though we had him winning 2-1. Going forward, this is an undeniable red flag that we should be wary of.

Por que apostar em Gabriel Miranda?

Miranda surprised us with that very quick win over Shane Young. He has always been a super aggressive wrestler (similar to BSD, who he actually fought semi-recently), so he hit his path to victory. But he’s a very flawed fighter that slows down and only seems to have a Plan A.

Análise Final das Apostas: Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda

It’s pretty simple – Charriere is a competent grappler, we don’t think Miranda is going to steam roll him or even find much of an advantage.

It is a possibility he finds that early finish though. However, we struggle to see what else Miranda brings to the table if his takedowns and submissions don’t amount to anything.

On the reverse, Charriere’s aforementioned decision concerns won’t be at play here because it looks like Miranda is even less reliable on the scorecards than he is.

We don’t give Miranda much of a shot outside that rabies grappling in the first round, and even that is a slim chance, so Morgan should be the one to get the nod.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola

Por que apostar nas tarifas Ziam?

Actually a very interesting fight. Fares Ziam is a guy that we actually rate a fair amount at the lower level of the UFC – we think he’s got a pretty competent and well rounded game, and he’s hard to look good against. Those kind of guys will always thrive against the bottom third of the division.

But Fares Ziam is a pretty inoffensive guy. He’s fought more than 90 minutes inside the UFC cage and we’re not sure there’s been a single moment where he’s even been close to a finish.

Therefore, we think it’s fair to say that if Ziam is going to win this fight, he’s likely going to have to do so on the scorecards. That’s tricky, cosidering Frevola is a great wrestler in his own right, and has the power advantage and is more damaging on the feet.

Por que apostar em Matt Frevola?

We’d say Frevola is a step above the level that Ziam should be comfortable beating, though. He’s also a pretty well-rounded guy, but he’s got more danger to his game, for better or worse. He hits damn hard.

He KO’d Drew Dober, which is an insanely difficult thing to do! He’s also been flatlined a few times himself. Most recently against BSD, but also in 7 seconds from Terrance McKinney once upon a time. And also Polo Reyes inside a minute. When you’ve got 3 KO losses in under 2 minutes, it’s a concern.

Análise Final das Apostas: Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola

We don’t see massive advantages on either side here, but in my opinion Matt Frevola is the slightly more assertive guy, and also has the finishing upside.

Isso obviamente é compensado pelos medos da comida caseira e pelo pensamento de que Ziam terá uma ligeira vantagem natural como francês na França, mas ainda achamos que Frevola deve ser o vencedor aqui.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Ion Cuțelaba vs. Ivan Erslan

Why Bet on Ion Cuțelaba?

Ion Cuțelaba is an aggressive fighter with powerful striking and good wrestling but he gas out easily and fades in the later rounds. We have to point out that Cuțelaba fights are usually a car crash.

He’s aggressive and sloppy, but usually falls apart if a fight hits round two. He’s not trustworthy to deliver unless he’s a decent sized underdog that can spring an upset.

Por que apostar em Ivan Erslan?

We are not really sure about Ivan Erslan, who is making his UFC debut. However, we don’t think he is the kind of fighter that can outlast Cuțelaba and this fight could end quickly for either fighter in the first round.

Análise Final das Apostas: Ion Cuțelaba vs. Ivan Erslan

We are picking Cuțelaba here as he has more experience at the UFC level and at least we have seen in the first round he can be very dangerous with finishing potential.

Mas a falta de vídeos para assistir sobre Ivan Erslan realmente nos deixou confusos.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung

Por que apostar em Oumar Sy?

Omar Sy is the UFC’s next scary big Light Heavyweight. The question here is if he’ll be able to take the shot and win the ‘easy’ opportunity given to him by the matchmakers, or if he will fail and be tossed aside like 100s of big lads before him.

Sy is primarily a grappler, which is a very interesting style to have in a weight class of mostly KO artists who don’t spend enough time grappling in the gym.

We saw in his debut that he knows how to play to his strengths. He wasted no time in initiating that takedown, and he flowed on top really well. We don’t know much about Tokkos, but he didn’t offer much on the return.

Por que apostar em Da Woon Jung?

There was a time where Da Woon Jung was thought of as a decent competitor at 205lbs. He’s a striker with competent speed and agility, and he’s also mixed in wrestling before.

Unfortunately, his wins have aged like milk, and the UFC have seemingly discarded any long term plans they had for him. He’s now on a three fight losing streak, most recently suffering a submission loss to Carlos Ulberg, first place in the UFC LHW golden goose race.

Jung didn’t really disgrace himself in that fight, despite winning no rounds and getting tapped by a kickboxer, but it’s a testament to the fact that he’s not an awful fighter. We’d still consider him an adequate test for any top 15 hopeful.

Análise Final das Apostas: Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung

Perhaps we are too hung up on the “old days” of 2021, where Jung was a respected and well rounded fighter because we’re not sure you can argue that Sy really deserves that huge favoritism.

He is still vastly unproven. Jung’s takedown defence is nothing to write home about, but it’s also not a glaring weakness. He got taken down three times by Devin Clark, but it’s not like anything came from them either.

We’ve no strong opinions on this one, but that tells us this line is likely way too wide. We don’t think you can watch Sy beat Tokkos and conclude he beats an eight-fight UFC veteran with no obvious grappling weakness 80% of the time.

Oumar Sy provavelmente vencerá aqui, mas acreditamos que a luta será mais difícil para ele do que qualquer um imagina que Da Woon Jung possa imaginar.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Ľudovít Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Why Bet on Ľudovít Klein?

We’d often refer to certain fighters as “most improved,” and we think Ľudovít Klein is one of them. When he came into the UFC he was a very dangerous head-kick merchant, and it didn’t take long before he learnt that you need more than to just be able to finish folks early.

Ele foi derrotado por decisão por Trizano, depois afogado por Nate Landwehr, mas depois disso ele virou a esquina e se reinventou completamente. Estamos muito impressionados com o lutador que ele se tornou nos últimos anos.

Por que apostar em Roosevelt Roberts?

Roosevelt Roberts’ first UFC stint crashed and burned, despite many having high hopes for him. The shock loss to Kevin Croom as a -600 favourite really was the tipping point.

We remember when he was being thought of as a future top 15 guy. Crazy how little that panned out. He’s not really a specialist at anything, but seems to lean more on his grappling than anything else.

Mas nada do que ele faz é particularmente impressionante, e ele parece não ser muito perigoso.

Análise Final das Apostas: Ľudovít Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Once upon a time this would have been a very interesting prospect show-down, but now Klein is a huge favorite and it’s a squash match. We cannot stress how wild that is – if you’d been in a coma for a few years and you saw this betting line it would be enough to put you back into one!

But, as people who is always aware of recency bias, we still remember a time where Ľudovít Klein was drawing with Jai Herbert and going to a split decision with Devonte Smith. There is still the possibility that he has a showing that is more reminiscent of the earlier UFC days, and it could be hard to trust him, but we think he will win the match.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Taylor Lapilus contra Vince Morales

Por que apostar em Taylor Lapilus?

Taylor Lapilus is one hell of a fighter. He’s got a point-fighting style, where there isn’t much fear of a finish or any damage being dealt out, but he’s very hard to beat on the feet across 15 minutes.

We do not think Vince Morales is going to be the superior minute winner at distance – he will need to strike gold and find a finish out of nothing.

Por que apostar em Vince Morales?

Interesting that they brought Vince Morales back. We actually think he’ll do much better this time, given that the standard of your average UFC fighter is lower than it was during his first stint.

Morales wasn’t terrible, he just had some really bad matchmaking – Miles Johns, Jonathan Martinez, Chris Gutierrez, and Yadong Song are three of his five losses. Don’t get us wrong though, he wasn’t a world beater.

Análise Final das Apostas: Taylor Lapilus contra Vince Morales

The common thought would be to grapple a guy like Lapilus, but he’s got incredible takedown defence. Morales also doesn’t try to wrestle much anyway so no real concerns there either.

All in all, we are struggling to see how Morales wins this fight, other than a low % KO with a strike that Lapilus doesn’t see coming. Not the craziest thing in the world, but honestly we think Taylor should be the safe pick by far in this clash.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Ailín Pérez vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

Why Bet on Ailín Pérez?

Ailin Perez não é uma lutadora particularmente habilidosa, mas é especialista e pode ir longe no MMA. O que lhe falta em técnica de golpes, ela compensa em tenacidade e pura determinação de grappling.

Her gas tank isn’t amazing, but she can be trusted to fight for your money when it matters. In a sport like WMMA, where the decisions can sometimes come down to fine margins, grit, and determination are more important than technique.

Por que apostar em Darya Zheleznyakova?

Nós meio que brincando, animamos Zhelezniakova para sua estreia no UFC. Isso porque ela chamou nossa atenção na cena regional quando estávamos gravando uma fita para Melissa Mullins.

She is actually a pretty slick striker, and we were trying to concentrate on Mullins but instead found ourselves really impressed with the Russian instead. She also show some serious grappling deficiencies in that fight, which weren’t a great sign.

We don’t know too much else about her, but all we really need to know here is that she dropped a round to Montserrat Rendon by getting taken down and controlled.

Ela fez bem em encontrar tempo suficiente em pé para mostrar sua superioridade em golpes, mas sofrer três de seis quedas e sofrer quase sete minutos de controle depois delas é um sinal realmente preocupante para alguém que está prestes a enfrentar Ailin Perez.

Análise Final das Apostas: Ailín Pérez vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

Perez really should roll here but her cardio is a little bit suspect sometimes. So, we think it won’t take much for Zhelezniakova to perform better than her pricetag with a good third round.

Dito isso, achamos que a argentina é a favorita aqui e deve conseguir a vitória se ela se esforçar para levar a luta para o chão.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Daniel Barez x Victor Altamirano

Por que apostar em Daniel Barez?

Daniel Barez é um lutador muito divertido de assistir. Inferno sobre rodas naquele round de abertura, mas por algum motivo ele bate em uma parede muito dura e tudo fica desleixado e começa a ficar mais lento.

We’ve seen it happen in both the UFC/DWCS fights he’s had, against both Hernandez and Filho. It’s usually a pretty bad issue that fighters never seem to fix – see Daniel Lacerda, Alex Hernandez etc.

Por que apostar em Victor Altamirano?

Victor Altamirano is kind of the complete opposite really. He’s not threatening at all, but he’s reliable to remain competitive and stay in the fight.

This fight has similar tones to a few of Altamirano’s other fights. Namely, his bouts with Daniel Lacerda and Vinicius Salvador, guys that are hell on wheels for five minutes but then very beatable afterwards.

Altamirano did a great job of managing distance and mixing in some takedowns in both fights, just to elongate that first round and reduce his opponent’s dangerousness.

Análise Final das Apostas: Daniel Barez x Victor Altamirano

Barez is much more effective than Lacerda and Salvador though, so we don’t really think Altamirano is going to find it so easy to coast his way through the early goings.

But he is a tough Mexican, and we’ll give his chin the benefit of the doubt, as well as his submission defence. It will be a sketchy few minutes for him, but if he makes it to that stool in the second round, he’s in a decent position for a very winnable fight.

Para seu crédito, Barez faz uma exibição decente para alguém tão cansado, mas ele regride significativamente a ponto de esperarmos que Altamirano o vença em seu estado de cansaço.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Nora Cornolle x Jaqueline Cavalcanti

Por que apostar em Nora Cornolle?

Personally, we think Cornolle is about to be heavily overrated by the MMA betting community because she looked good in that win over Mullins. We still don’t think she is that good of a fighter. She struggled with Joselyne Edwards in her debut, and got a very fortunate decision in her home country.

We can discredit Cornolle all we like, but she’s been the far superior striker in both of her UFC appearances, and it’s the grappling that is going to cost her long term.

Por que apostar em Jaqueline Cavalcanti?

Cavalcanti entregou exatamente o que era de se esperar naquele placar de 30-27 de Nunes. Esse tipo de estilo de ataque vai ser difícil de superar tão baixo na divisão.

Jaqueline Cavalcanti, for as much as we like her, has not shot a takedown in the UFC yet, and we don’t think she will here.

Análise Final das Apostas: Nora Cornolle x Jaqueline Cavalcanti

Cavalcanti had the distance advantage over Nunes, so the strikes weren’t even. Still, against Cornolle we would expect both women to still land a respectable number of strikes against each other, with it being difficult to differentiate between them when they’re equally weak.

No entanto, o trabalho defensivo de Cavalcanti deve ser suficiente para vê-la vencer esta, mas as chances são bem pequenas de obter um bom lucro.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan

Por que apostar em Bolaji Oki?

Bolaji Oki é um striker decente com bom jogo de pés e timing. Ele teve uma vitória de estreia no UFC, mas foi contra um cara sem experiência anterior no UFC.

In short, he’s fought on DWCS twice. From skim-viewing the Cuamba fight, we wasn’t really all that impressed. He just felt tentative and didn’t offer much else than a jab.

Por que apostar em Chris Duncan?

Chris Duncan is a tough brawler and this presents an interesting clash of styles. But he is a guy we’ve always had a low opinion of. His path to the UFC came from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against a superior fighter.

Ele obteve uma vitória medíocre contra Omar Morales, derrotou o nada impressionante Yanal Ashmouz e então mostrou sua verdadeira face contra Manuel Torres.

Análise Final das Apostas: Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan

Oki tem mais potencial atlético como lutador e Duncan pode ser um adversário difícil para ele. No entanto, se Oki lutar de forma inteligente em pé e evitar um tiroteio no pocket, ele deve ser capaz de acertar mais golpes do que Duncan.

We don’t expect this fight to be the one to hype the whole arena up, but maybe the raw exchanges might do it for the French crowd.

Moicano x Saint-Denis Escolha de apostas: Benoit Saint-Denis

Imavov vs. Allen Escolha de apostas: Nassourdine Imanov

Gomis vs. Brito Escolha de apostas: Joanderson Brito

Jousset vs. Batalha Escolha de apostas: Bryan Batalha

Charriere vs Miranda Escolha de apostas: Morgan Charrière

Ziam vs. Frevola Escolha de apostas: Matt Frevola

Cutelaba vs. Erslan Escolha de apostas: Íon Cutelava

Sy contra Woon Jung Escolha de apostas: Oumar Sy

Klein contra Roberts Escolha de apostas: Ludovit Klein

Lapilus vs. Morales Escolha de apostas: Taylor Lapilus

Pérez vs. Zheleznyakova Escolha de apostas: Ailin Perez

Barez vs. Altamirano Escolha de apostas: Victor Altamirano

Cornolle vs. Cavalcanti Escolha de apostas: Jaqueline Cavalcanti

Oki contra Duncan Escolha de apostas: Bolaji Oki