Last Updated on setembro 16, 2026 11:16 pm by Erwin Noguera
Alexandre Pantoja opened as a -200 favorite to take his title back. He is now a -113-coin flip.
That is a 200-point move toward the champion in six weeks, and it is the most instructive number on the card, because their first fight lasted 26 seconds and ended when Pantoja injured his elbow. Nobody learned anything that night. The market has spent a month and a half deciding what to do with that, and it has landed on the 24-year-old.
We also owe you a scoring note. Our Noche UFC selections went badly: Jean Silva submitted Jose Delgado in the third, Brandon Moreno edged Joseph Morales on a split decision, e Tommy McMillen beat Marwan Rahiki on the cards: three main card picks, three losses. The corrections we are making this week are in the picks themselves, and we explain them at the end.
Não perca o evento deste sábado! UFC/MMA Acompanhe o evento com análises completas das lutas e dicas de apostas, e mantenha a adrenalina em alta! Cassino Gambyl, onde promoções exclusivas e ação ininterrupta no cassino elevam a noite de lutas a outro nível.
UFC 331 Los Angeles: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Alexandre Pantoja -120 | Joshua Van +100 |
| Arman Tsarukyan -350 | Mauricio Ruffy +280 |
| Doo Ho Choi -205 | Patricio Pitbull +177 |
| Iwo Baraniewski -300 | Alonzo Menifield +245 |
| Gable Steveson -1600 | Sean Sharaf +900 |
| Charles Jourdain -150 | Marlon Vera +130 |
| Robelis Despaigne -500 | Tai Tuivasa +380 |
| Michael Aswell Jr. TBD | JooSang Yoo TBD |
| Ryan Gandra TBD | Ozzy Diaz TBD |
| Brunno Ferreira -110 | Edmen Shahbazyan -110 |
| Casey O’Neill -190 | Eduarda Moura +165 |
| Joanderson Brito -425 | Giga Chikadze +334 |
| Quando? | Saturday, September 19 — Early Prelims 5:00 pm ET, Prelims 7:00 pm ET, Main Card 9:00 pm ET |
| Onde? | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ |
UFC 331: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja
UFC Flyweight Championship — five rounds
Por que apostar em Joshua Van?
The statistical profile is the most complete in the division, and it is worth going through properly.
Van lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute. That is elite volume at any weight and extraordinary at 125 pounds, and it is built on genuinely excellent boxing rather than point-scoring at range. He is 24 years old, and he fights at a pace where almost nobody can match across five rounds.
He also defends better than the man across from him. Van absorbs less: he prevents 58% of the significant strikes thrown at him, contra 49% for Pantoja. In a division where volume decides scorecards, a nine-point gap in strike defense compounds every round.
And the grappling is no longer the hole it was. Van completes 61% of his takedown attempts and (the number that matters most here) stuffs 75% of the takedown attempts against him. Pantoja’s route to the belt is on the ground. Three out of four times, he will not get there.
The proof came at UFC 328, where Van made his first defense with a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira, an elite flyweight, broken in the championship rounds. That is the performance Van did not produce in the first Pantoja fight, and it reframed him from Cinderella story to champion.
He has also been direct about his intentions, promising to finish Pantoja inside three rounds.
Por que apostar em Alexandre Pantoja?
Because before December, he was as dominant as any champion in the sport.
Four consecutive successful title defenses. An eight-fight winning streak. Consecutive submission wins over Kai Asakura e Kai Kara-França: two of the hardest men in the division to finish, both taken out on the floor.
That is the argument: Pantoja’s grappling is not theoretical. He submits elite flyweights, repeatedly, and he has never been given the chance to try it against Van. Twenty-six seconds is not a fight.
At 36, he is chasing the chance to become only the third man to hold the flyweight title twice, and he has been handed an immediate rematch without needing to fight his way back, an acknowledgement from the promotion that the first result settled nothing.
Final Betting Analysis: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja
The road to victory for Pantoja is narrow and specific: close the distance early, get Van to the mat before the volume accumulates, and find the back. He has done it to better grapplers than Van. The problem is the 75% takedown defense: he needs multiple entries, and every fail costs him energy against a man throwing eight and a half strikes a minute.
Van’s route is simply to fight. Keep it standing, out-land a man who defends nine points worse than he does, and push a pace into the championship rounds where he has already proved he can finish people.
The layoff is the factor the market has been correcting for. Pantoja is 36, has not competed since December, and is returning from an elbow injury. Van has fought and won a five-round title fight in that window. The line moved from -200 to -113 because that gap is real.
FREE PICK: Van -107. The champion is younger, busier, statistically superior on the feet, and defends the one thing his opponent needs to do. Expect Van by decision or late stoppage.
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Lightweight — five rounds, non-title
Por que apostar em Arman Tsarukyan?
Five straight wins and a 10-2 record inside the Octagon, against a level of opposition almost nobody at 155 pounds has matched. His last appearance was in Qatar in November, where he throttled Dan Hooker: the same Dan Hooker who has since been knocked out by Salahdine Parnasse in a round.
Tsarukyan has been waiting for years for a title shot, and the winner of this fight is widely expected to get one. That is the profile of a man who does not lose to a striker moving up in class.
The stylistic case is the oldest one in sport. Elite wrestler versus a dynamic striker who’s takedown defense has never been properly stress-tested. Tsarukyan’s chain wrestling is relentless, he holds position, and he is comfortable across twenty-five minutes.
He has also stayed sharp in an unusual way, competing in grappling every month since the Hooker win.
Por que apostar em Mauricio Ruffy?
Because 2026 has been a transformation.
Two dominant finishes this year, both against serious opposition. In February, he stopped Rafael Fiziev in the second round: Fiziev being one of the best strikers in the division. In June he went to The White House at UFC Freedom 250 and battered Michael Chandler, a former Bellator champion and long-time UFC contender.
The reason matters more than the results. Ruffy relocated his preparation to Australia and now works alongside featherweight champion Alexandre Volkanovski: a camp that has specifically fixed takedown defense for strikers before. The question everyone is asking regarding this fight is precisely the thing he has spent a year addressing.
And Tsarukyan has not fought since November. Ten months. Grappling competitively keeps you fit; it does not replicate being punched.
Final Betting Analysis: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Tsarukyan’s route: level changes early, take Ruffy’s hips before he settles into range, and grind. He does not need a finish. Five rounds of positional control win him a title shot.
Ruffy’s route: stay upright for two rounds. If he defends the early entries and forces Tsarukyan to strike with him, the Brazilian is the better and more dangerous striker, and the Armenian has ten months of ring rust to work through in a five-round fight.
Who wins: Tsarukyan, more likely than not. Wrestling travels, and the gap in opposition quality is genuine.
Where the value is: not on him. -350 implies 78%, and that number does not account for a ten-month layoff against a fighter who has had two fights and two finishes in the same window.
FREE PICK: Ruffy +280, small stake. We think Tsarukyan will win. We do not think he wins nearly four times out of five, and the price offers no protection at all if the rust is real.
UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi
Por que apostar em Doo Ho Choi?
“The Korean Superboy” is in the middle of the best run of his career, a decade after the first one.
Choi is 17-4-1 and has won three consecutive UFC fights: his first three-fight run since 2016. He beat Bill Algeo e Nate Landwehr in 2024, then in May 2026 produced a body-shot TKO of Brazilian prospect Daniel Santos at 4:29 of the second round.
The detail that defines him: every one of his UFC wins has come by TKO. He does not win decisions. He finds the finish, and he has been doing it with Jung Chan-sung (the Korean Zombie) in his corner.
Por que apostar em Patricio Pitbull?
He is one of the most decorated champions in the history of sport outside the UFC, and his three Octagon appearances have all been against genuinely good featherweights: Yair Rodriguez, Dan Ige e Aaron Pico.
He went the distance with all three. At 39, in a division this deep, that durability is worth something, and +177 is a real price on a fighter who has never been blown out.
The record inside those three fights is the problem: 1-2, with the only win over Ige.
Final Betting Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi
This is a slugfest on paper, and the UFC’s own preview expects it to be.
Pitbull’s route is to absorb the early pressure, take Choi into the third, and win a decision the way he has contested his other UFC fights: toughness and experience. He has never finished at this level.
Choi’s route is the one he has run three times in a row: find the body, break the opponent’s posture, and finish. The Santos win is the template: a body shot in round two against a younger, fresher opponent.
The reading is age and trajectory. Choi is ascending and finishing people. Pitbull arrived with enormous expectations and has settled at the edge of the rankings, going the distance with fighters he was supposed to beat.
FREE PICK: Choi -205. One of the few short prices on this card shows a real gap rather than a reputation. Choi by stoppage.
UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski
Por que apostar em Iwo Baraniewski?
The single most extraordinary statistic on the card.
Baraniewski is 9-0. Since earning a contract on the Contender Series, he has recorded three consecutive first-round stoppages (over Ibo Aslam, Rua Austen e Tafa Júnior) in a combined 3 minutes and 22 seconds of Octagon time.
That is an average of just over a minute per fight. The 27-year-old has never seen the fourth minute of a fight, let alone a second round.
The opposition is not padding, either. Tafa is a legitimate UFC light heavyweight with knockout power of his own, and Baraniewski removed him inside a round.
Por que apostar em Alonzo Menifield?
Because that same statistic is the open question.
Nobody knows what Baraniewski looks like in round two, because nobody has taken him there. Conditioning, composure, a fighter’s response to adversity: all of it is untested, and the one way to find out is to survive the opening ninety seconds.
Menifield is the man the UFC has chosen to ask. He is 5-3-1 since the start of 2023 and 3-1 across his last four, most recently travelling to Macau in May and walloping Zhang Mingyang. He is durable, he is experienced at exactly this level, and he has spent years as the veteran gatekeeper in the lower third of the rankings.
Final Betting Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski
Menifield’s route is the clock. Weather the first round, drag a man who has never been past 3:22 into deep water, and find out whether the legendary Polish power comes with a gas tank.
Baraniewski’s route is what he has always done. Land early, land hard, leave.
The honest caveat: -300 is short, and three fights totalling under three and a half minutes is a small sample. But it is a small sample in the way a pattern is: progressively better opponents, identical outcomes.
FREE PICK: Baraniewski -300. He wins inside a round, or Menifield wins the fight. We are taking the more frequent outcome.
UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
Why Bet on Gable Steveson?
A decorated amateur wrestler and undefeated professional, with a first-round win over Elisha Ellison on debut this summer. The physical tools are unmistakable, and the heavyweight division has always rewarded elite wrestling.
Por que apostar em Sean Sharaf?
He is a local (a Santa Ana resident) and a US Marine Corps veteran who began his professional career 4-0 with four first-round finishes.
The UFC run has not gone the same way: a short-notice debut loss to Tafa Júnior, followed by a second-round defeat to Steven Asplund. He arrives 0-2 in the Octagon.
Final Betting Analysis: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
The interesting thing about Steveson is not whether he wins these fights but how. He ate a few shots in his debut win, and the perennial question for any wrestling prospect at heavyweight is how he reacts to being hit clean. He has passed that test once. These early bookings are about him learning to slow down and use his tools rather than sprint.
Sharaf, 0-2 and finished twice, is not the opponent likely to supply a harder test.
FREE PICK: Steveson. He wins, comfortably and probably early. At -1600, there is no bet here (that price implies 94% and offers nothing), but the prediction is not in doubt.
UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain
Por que apostar em Charles Jourdain?
The move to bantamweight has remade his career. Jourdain is 3-0 since dropping down, com submission wins over Victor Henry and Davey Grant e um unanimous decision over Kyler Phillips in Winnipeg this year.
Three wins, two finishes, against solid divisional opposition. The French-Canadian has always been dangerous and aggressive; he now fights at a weight where his frame is an asset rather than a handicap.
Por que apostar em Marlon Vera?
“Chito” has been one of the most durable and recognizable fighters in the division for a decade, and he has shared the cage with the elite of the weight class repeatedly.
The form is grim. Vera is on a four-fight losing streak, e seu last win came three years ago, against Pedro Munhoz. He is fighting for his place in the rankings and, realistically, for his standing in the division.
Final Betting Analysis: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain
Vera’s route is the one that has always worked for him: absorb, accumulate, and take over late with calf kicks and elbows as the opponent tires. He is very hard to finish, and he has won fights from behind before.
Jourdain’s route is to be busier in the first two rounds and either bank them or find the submission he has already landed twice at this weight.
The only thing holding this line at -150 is Vera’s name and his toughness. A fighter who has not won in three years is a considerable underdog against one who has won three straights in the division.
FREE PICK: Jourdain -150. The form gap is wider than the price.
UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne
Por que apostar em Robelis Despaigne?
He was released by the UFC in autumn 2024 and has been rebuilt in the most convincing way available.
He knocked out Junior Dos Santos (a former heavyweight champion) in his only MMA appearance since his release. And he stayed busy under the Karate Combat banner, winning all seven of his starts and claiming their heavyweight title.
Eight consecutive wins across two promotions, with the physical profile that made him a prospect in the first place.
Por que apostar em Tai Tuivasa?
Because this is heavyweight and he can still punch.
Tuivasa’s ceiling was always his power, and power is the last thing to leave a fighter. At +380, you are getting one of the hardest hitters of the last decade against a man who has not faced UFC-calibre opposition in nearly two years.
The problem is the run. Tuivasa arrives on an extended losing streak and is fighting to show he has nothing left.
Final Betting Analysis: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne
Tuivasa’s route is one punch. It has always been one punch. In this division, that is a genuine path, and it is why the price is +380 rather than +600.
Despaigne’s route is to use the reach, stay off the fence, and let a fighter on a long skid come to him.
The Karate Combat run is the thing to weigh carefully: seven wins in a striking-only promotion is not the same as seven UFC wins, and the Dos Santos knockout came against a fighter well past his peak.
FREE PICK: Despaigne. The momentum and the physical advantages are his. At -500, we would not bet it (that is not a price to lay in the division where single exchanges decide everything), and if you want the fight, Tuivasa’s power at +380 is the only side with value.
UFC 331: Michael Aswell Jr. vs. JooSang Yoo
Why Bet on JooSang Yoo?
He announced himself with a highlight-reel knockout of Jeka Saragih on his debut at UFC 316, which remains the single best performance man in this fight has produced.
The common opponent is useful here. Yoo was beaten by Daniel Santos in his sophomore outing, and Santos is the same fighter Doo Ho Choi stopped with a body shot earlier on this card’s build-up. That places Yoo a clear tier below the featherweights at the top of tonight’s bill, but it also tells you he was competitive against a live opponent.
Why Bet on Michael Aswell Jr.?
He turns 26 at the end of the month and is fighting for his job. Aswell is 1-3 inside the Octagon, having dropped decisions to Luke Riley and Gaston Bolanos in his last two.
The distinction matters: he has lost on the cards rather than been finished. He is competitive, he is young, and fighters with their back against the wall frequently produce their best work.
Final Betting Analysis: Michael Aswell Jr. vs. JooSang Yoo
Two featherweights who badly need a result, with a combined 2-4 UFC record between them.
Aswell’s route is volume and decisions, the way he has kept his fights close. Yoo’s route is the knockout power he showed against Saragih.
The separator is that Yoo has produced one genuinely elite moment at this level and Aswell has not. In a fight between two men who have mostly lost, the one with a finish on his UFC record is the safer read.
No line had been posted at the time of writing, which changes nothing about who we think wins.
FREE PICK: Yoo. If a price appears at plus money, it is worth taking.
UFC 331: Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz
Why Bet on Ryan Gandra?
“Problema” has earned the nickname in the most literal way available.
Since graduating from the Contender Series last autumn, Gandra has produced brutal knockouts of Jose Daniel Medina and Zach Reese, dismissing both in under two minutes combined. His overall winning streak now stands at nine.
Two UFC fights, two finishes, almost no time spent working for either.
Por que apostar em Ozzy Diaz?
He was a genuine standout on the regional circuit, and he has been here before: he lost to Joe Pyfer in Season 6 of the Contender Series four years ago and has since gone 1-2 inside the Octagon.
That record contains the argument against him and the argument for him: he has not translated regional form to this level, but he has also been in there with UFC-caliber opposition repeatedly and knows what it takes.
Final Betting Analysis: Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz
Gandra’s route is to do what he has done twice: close quickly, land clean, end it. He has not needed a second round yet.
Diaz’s route is survival and depth: take Gandra past two minutes, which nobody in the UFC has managed, and find out whether the finisher can fight rather than just finish.
That is the same structural question as the Baraniewski fight, with a less proven questioner asking it. Diaz’s 1-2 record does not suggest he is the man to expose an untested gas tank.
No line had been posted at the time of writing.
FREE PICK: Gandra. Comfortably the most confident call on the prelims, price or no price.
UFC 331: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira
Por que apostar em Edmen Shahbazyan?
“The Golden Boy” returns to Los Angeles, and his last outing reads better than the result.
He lost to Brendan Allen (a genuine, ranked middleweight) and earned Fight of the Night for the performance. Losing competitively to a contender and being rewarded for how you did it is a very different data point from simply losing.
Por que apostar em Brunno Ferreira?
Because of one number: he has gone the distance twice in nineteen career starts.
That is a fighter whose fights end, and end violently, in either direction. Against an opponent who has been finished before, that is a meaningful threat.
The concern is his current level: consecutive defeats to Gregory Rodrigues e Ikram Aliskerov, both of whom stopped his momentum.
Final Betting Analysis: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira
A genuine -110 pick’em, and the market is right to call it one.
Ferreira’s route is early violence. Seventeen of nineteen fights ending inside the distance is not a coincidence: he commits, and he either lands or gets landed on.
Shahbazyan’s route is to survive that opening exchange and use the boxing and speed that made him a prospect, against a man who has lost two in a row and has never been asked to manage a full fight.
The tiebreaker is the most recent performance. Shahbazyan lost to a better fighter and looked good doing it. Ferreira lost twice. That is a form gap in a fight the market has priced as even.
FREE PICK: Shahbazyan -110. Take on the quality of the last outing, not on the postcode.
UFC 331: Casey O’Neill vs. Eduarda Moura
Por que apostar em Casey O'Neill?
She is 11-2 overall and has rebuilt properly after a long absence.
O’Neill ended a 19-month layoff in March with a first-round knockout of Gabriella Fernandes and now has back-to-back wins. Returning from that long out of competition and producing a finish is the hardest version of a comeback, and she managed it.
Por que apostar em Eduarda Moura?
Her start in the division was genuinely good: wins over Verônica Hardy e Lauren Murphy, the latter a former title challenger. That is a better set of names than O’Neill has beaten recently, and +165 is a real price on a fighter with that ceiling.
Final Betting Analysis: Casey O’Neill vs. Eduarda Moura
The problem is Moura’s most recent outing, and there are two problems in one. She lost a decision to Wang Cong, and she missed weight for it.
Missed weight is not only a fine. It tells you about the camp, about the recovery on fight night, and frequently about a fighter’s durability in the later rounds. Moura is 3-2 in the UFC with that as her last entry.
O’Neill’s route is the pressure and finishing instinct she showed against Fernandes. Moura’s route is to fight the way she did against Murphy and Hardy, but she has not looked like that fighter recently.
FREE PICK: O’Neill -190. Form, momentum, and a clean camp against a fighter coming off a defeat and a failed weight cut.
UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito
Por que apostar em Joanderson Brito?
He is the active, in-form fighter, having made quick work of Jordan Leavitt last time out. A win here would give him a legitimate case for a place in a featherweight top fifteen that is becoming harder to break into every year.
Por que apostar em Giga Chikadze?
Not long ago, he was among the most feared strikers at 145 pounds, with the kind of legs arsenal that ends fights from range. At +334, you are buying that version of him.
The caveat is serious and specific. Chikadze competes for the first time since a knockout loss to Kevin Vallejos on the final card of 2025. That is a long layoff following a finish, statistically the most difficult combination in the sport to return from, because of the inactivity and the damage compound.
Final Betting Analysis: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito
Chikadze’s route is to find range early and land the leg kicks and body work that made his reputation, before anyone can question his chin.
Brito’s route is pressure, close the distance, make it a fight rather than a kickboxing match, and test whether a fighter returning from a knockout after that long still wants it.
Both men open the card, which means neither has the luxury of a slow start.
FREE PICK: Brito. The active fighter against one returning from a knockout and an extended absence. At -425, we would not lay it (that is a poor price for a featherweight fight), but Brito is clearly the correct side.
Resumo das Escolhas Grátis
Cartão principal
- Van -107
- Ruffy +280 — small stake (we expect Tsarukyan to win; the price is wrong)
- Choi -205
- Baraniewski -300
- Steveson — no bet at -1600
Preliminares
- Jourdain -150
- Despaigne — no bet at -500
- Yoo — no line posted
- Gandra — no line posted
- Shahbazyan -110
- O’Neill -190
- Brito — no bet at -425
Visão geral final do cartão
Every fight on this page has a pick. Where no line has been posted, or where the price is unbackable, we have still told you who we think wins: those are separate questions, and we should have been treating them that way.
We are also backing favorites this week, and that is deliberate. Last Saturday in Glendale we loaded up on underdogs, and the card went against us. The week before in Paris we faded the home fighters and the French won. Neither failure was about the individual reads; both times a single idea shaped the entire card.
This week the picks land where the evidence puts them: four favorites we are happy to lay, one underdog play, one pick’em, and four fights where the price is wrong even though the winner is obvious.
The strongest case on the card is Choi. Seventeen wins, three straights, and every UFC victory by TKO, against a 39-year-old who is 1-2 in the promotion and has gone the distance every time.
The most interesting price is Ruffy at +280. We think Tsarukyan wins (wrestling beats strikers and the opposition gap is real), but a ten-month layoff against a man with two finishes this year is not a 78% proposition.
And the main event is genuinely close to a coin flip, which is the correct place for it to be. A 24-year-old champion landing 8.43 significant strikes a minute and stuffing three of every four takedowns, against a 36-year-old former champion with four title defenses, an eight-fight streak and nine months of inactivity. The first fight told us nothing. This one will tell us everything.
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