Last Updated on outubro 21, 2026 9:16 pm by Erwin Noguera
A featherweight title fight priced at -110 on both sides. A bantamweight title trilogy at one win apiece. Fourteen fights, and the UFC main card starts at two in the afternoon.
Alexander Volkanovski is 8-0 in successful title defences and chasing the divisional record. Movsar Evloev is 20-0 and has never been beaten anywhere. The books cannot separate them.
Below that, Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meet for a third time with the bantamweight belt on the line. Yan took it back last December by holding Dvalishvili to two takedowns from twenty-nine attempts. Dvalishvili had won fourteen in a row before that night.
This is the strongest UFC card of the autumn, and it runs in the morning for American viewers. Early prelims at 10:00 AM ET, main card at 2:00 PM.
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UFC 333 Abu Dhabi: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Alexander Volkanovski (C) (-110) | Movsar Evloev (#1) (-110) |
| Petr Yan (C) TBD | Merab Dvalishvili (#1) TBD |
| Lone’er Kavanagh (#6) (-105) | Ramazan Temirov (#10) (-115) |
| Alexander Volkov (#2) (-120) | Rizvan Kuniev (#7) (+100) |
| Aaron Pico (#11) (-105) | Losene Keita (-115) |
| Azamat Murzakanov (#7) (-220) | Dominick Reyes (#8) (+180) |
| Nikita Krylov (#15) (+350) | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-450) |
| Abus Magomedov (#12) (-120) | Cam Rowston (+100) |
| Grant Dawson (-125) | Nurullo Aliev (+105) |
| Colby Thicknesse (+400) | Asaf Chopurov (-550) |
| Abubakar Vagaev (-190) | Jacob Malkoun (+160) |
| Bolaji Oki (+110) | Daniel Santos (-130) |
| Kody Steele (-155) | Noah Gugnon (+130) |
| Iasmin Lucindo (-350) | Nicolle Caliari (+275) |
| Quando? | Saturday, October 24 — early prelims 10:00 AM ET, prelims 12:00 PM ET, main card 2:00 PM ET |
| Onde? | Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ (early prelims also on UFC Fight Pass) |
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
Why Bet on Volkanovski?
Eight successful title defences, and a ninth would set a new featherweight record. He reclaimed the belt in 2025 and defended it earlier this year against Diego Lopes in Sydney, dominating from the opening bell and taking Luta da Noite durante o processo.
UFC’s own preview calls him “arguably the most complete fighter to ever grace the Octagon.” That is not promotional vocabulary about a prospect; it is a two-time champion with nothing left to prove and a specific record in his sights.
And Evloev has never fought anyone like him. Twenty wins, no titleholders among them.
Why Bet on Evloev?
20-0. Ten wins from ten UFC starts. Thirty-two years old and still unbeaten.
The context: UFC supply is the striking part: fewer than twenty fighters in the promotion’s history have won ten or more consecutive bouts at this level. That is the company Evloev is in.
And the wrestling is the problem Volkanovski has to solve. Contra Lerone Murphy, Evloev struck for two rounds, and then went 9 for 10 on takedowns across the final three. He has suffocated everyone he has faced.
Final Betting Analysis: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
-110 on both sides is the books telling you they have no edge, and for once we agree with them.
One number cuts against the challenger: Evloev has never finished anyone in the UFC. Ten wins, no stoppages. If this becomes a five-round grind, Volkanovski has been in more of them than any featherweight alive.
The fight is a referendum on one question: can Evloev’s wrestling hold a man who has defended the title eight times? The Murphy sequence says the takedowns will come. The counter is that Volkanovski’s takedown defence and get-ups are the best the division has produced, and that twenty-five minutes of chain wrestling against him has never worked.
Our lean is the champion, narrowly, and we are not going to dress it up as more than that. Experience in championship rounds against a man who has never seen them is the thinnest honest edge available.
FREE PICK: Alexander Volkanovski by decision, at a reduced stake. This is a genuine coin flip, and the price says so.
UFC 333: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Why Bet on Yan?
The most recent evidence is a masterclass, and the numbers are extraordinary. No UFC 323 last December, Yan limited Dvalishvili to two takedowns on twenty-nine attempts, landed 5 of 9 of his own, and connected at a 60% clip across five rounds to become a two-time champion.
Stopping twenty-seven of twenty-nine takedown attempts against the most relentless wrestler in the division is the single most impressive defensive performance in bantamweight history.
He has now won four straight and is 20-5, at 33, with the all-time-great conversation reopening around him.
Why Bet on Dvalishvili?
He won the first fight, and he won it comfortably. Em seus March 2023 main event, he went 11 for 49 on takedowns, nearly doubled Yan’s striking output, and cruised to a unanimous decision.
And the December defeat has an explanation he has offered himself. The loss snapped a fourteen-fight winning streak, and Dvalishvili has said in the build-up that he “appeared to get deflated” that night; he was the reigning champion attempting a fourth title defence inside a single year.
Ten months of preparation instead of a punishing schedule is a materially different Dvalishvili.
Final Betting Analysis: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
One win each, and both were one-sided in opposite directions. That is the rarest shape a trilogy can take, and it is why no price has been posted.
Yan attributed his first loss to injury limitations. Dvalishvili attributes his second to volume and fatigue. Both explanations are plausible, and both are self-serving. What is not in dispute is that each man has now had ten months to prepare for one opponent.
We take the more recent fight over the older one, and the more recent fight was not close.
FREE PICK: Petr Yan by decision. No line posted; this is a read, not a play.
UFC 333: Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
Why Bet on Kavanagh?
He beat a former champion in February and then won Fight of the Night against a top candidate in July. The short-notice unanimous decision over Brandon Moreno was the breakout; the three-round war with Brandon Royval was the confirmation.
This is his third appearance of the year, and he arrived in the UFC off a stunning knockout of An Tuan Ho to open Season 9 of the Contender Series. No flyweight has had a better 2026.
Why Bet on Temirov?
A twelve-fight winning streak and a 20-3 record, mais recentemente um first-round stoppage of former title challenger Steve Erceg on the UFC’s July visit to this same arena.
He also beat CJ Vergara and Charles Johnson in his first two Octagon appearances. Stopping Erceg inside a round is the single best result on either man’s recent sheet.
The asterisk is between those wins: a one-year suspension for an anti-doping violation.
Final Betting Analysis: Kavanagh vs. Temirov
-105 and -115 is another pick’em, and the division is why it matters. Campeão Josué Van e Manel Kape appear headed for a title fight early next year, which leaves the next challenger slot genuinely open. A statement here puts the winner on that list alongside Royval and Asu Almabayev.
Kavanagh has beaten the better opposition. Temirov has produced the better single performance. Kavanagh is also fighting for the third time this year, which is either momentum or mileage.
FREE PICK: Lone’er Kavanagh by decision.
UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Why Bet on Volkov?
Six wins from seven, and the only defeat was a disputed split decision against Ciryl Gane at the end of 2024.
He is one win from a title shot, and he knows it.Ciryl Gane fights Josh Hokit at Madison Square Garden next month, and a Volkov win here paired with a Gane win there sets up the rematch Volkov has been chasing for two years.
At #2, he is the highest-ranked fighter on this card outside the two champions.
Why Bet on Kuniev?
UFC’s own preview calls this a trap fight for Volkov, and Kuniev is the trap. The 34-year-old is 2-1 in the promotion with wins over Jailton Almeida and Tyrell Fortune, the latter winning Luta da Noite in July after he finished the American in the third with knees to the body.
His only UFC loss is a split decision to Curtis Blaydes, which is the kind of defeat that says more about the opponent than the fighter.
Final Betting Analysis: Volkov vs. Kuniev
-120 and +100 on a fight between the second- and seventh-ranked heavyweights is a very short price on the better-established man.
That reflects the specific risk. Volkov is risking a ranking and a title shot against an opponent with everything to gain and a Fight of the Night finish to his name. Heavyweight is also the division where one clean shot overrides every other consideration.
Volkov’s length and volume are the right tools, and he has been the better fighter for longer.
FREE PICK: Alexander Volkov by decision, at a reduced stake. Kuniev at +100 is a live price.
UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Why Bet on Pico?
He steadied himself with a unanimous decision over Patricio Pitbull after arriving in the UFC as the betting favourite against then-unbeaten Lerone Murphy and losing.
That favourite’s price on debut tells you what the promotion thinks of him. Beating a former Bellator champion in his second outing is the result that made the Murphy loss a setback rather than a verdict.
Por que apostar em Keita?
A first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov in Paris, which reset his standing after a rough start: he missed weight for his debut against Pitbull and then dropped a split decision to Nathaniel Wood in March.
He arrives on genuine momentum and the shortest turnaround on the card: seven weeks since that knockout.
Final Betting Analysis: Pico vs. Keita
A top-fifteen place is reserved for the winner, which makes this the most consequential fight on the card outside the title bouts.
-105 and -115 is a third pick’em on this main card. Pico has the better single win; Keita has the better recent form and the more emphatic finish.
The tiebreaker is the calendar.Seven weeks between a knockout win and a card like this is a very short camp, and Pico was originally preparing for Arnold Allen, a stylistically different opponent, which cuts the other way.
FREE PICK: Aaron Pico by decision.
UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
Why Bet on Murzakanov?
Six straight wins to open his UFC career, and he was pushing for the top five before he met Paulo Costa. That defeat at UFC 327 in April era o first of his entire career; he is 16-1.
One loss in sixteen fights, to a former title challenger, is not a pattern.
Why Bet on Reyes?
He is 16-5 and has fought for a championship. Dele three-fight winning streak was snapped last autumn by current champion Carlos Ulberg, and he returned in April with a split decision over Johnny Walker.
The honest note from UFC’s preview is that the Walker fight was “tepid” and that Reyes remains vulnerable to clean power shots.
Final Betting Analysis: Murzakanov vs. Reyes
-220 is a solid price, and the records support it. Murzakanov has lost once in sixteen; Reyes has lost five times and been stopped by the champion.
The case for Reyes at +180 is experience in five-round fights and the fact that Murzakanov has not won since losing.The case against is that a man described as vulnerable to power is facing someone who built a six-fight UFC run on it.
FREE PICK: Azamat Murzakanov by TKO.
UFC 333: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Why Bet on Krylov?
Twenty-nine finishes in thirty-one career wins. That is not a statistic; it is an identity.
At 34, he brings the veteran savvy UFC explicitly frames as the threat to prospects, and he demonstrated it in January against Modestas Bukauskas.He is also the only ranked fighter in this bout, at #15.
Why Bet on Yakhyaev?
He knocked Julius Walker out in eight seconds.
Three wins since graduating from the Contender Series last August, and he is 10-0. The Walker finish was his most recent, and it took less time than this sentence takes to read.
Final Betting Analysis: Krylov vs. Yakhyaev
A ranked veteran at +350 against an unranked prospect at -450 is the starkest price on the card, and it is a straightforward statement: the market believes Yakhyaev is a future contender and Krylov is the test he passes.
The eight-second knockout is doing a lot of work in that number. So is 10-0.
But Krylov has twenty-nine finishes and has spent a decade beating exactly this profile of opponent, and 22% implied is low for a man with that record. We are picking the favourite and flagging the dog.
FREE PICK: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by TKO. Krylov at +350 is the most defensible longshot on the card.
UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston
Why Bet on Magomedov?
Eight UFC fights, five wins, three finishes, and the three defeats are to Sean Strickland, Caio Borralho, and Joe Pyfer.
That is a fighter who has lost only to the division’s best. He is ranked #12, and he knows precisely where he stands.
Why Bet on Rowston?
Seven straight wins, including his Contender Series contract and all three of his UFC appearances.
The Australian lost his first DWCS outing and has not lost since. Three from three in the Octagon against a man who has lost three of eight is the simplest argument on this card.
Final Betting Analysis: Magomedov vs. Rowston
-120 and +100 is the market calling it even, and the records disagree with the market.
Rowston is 3-0 in the UFC on a seven-fight run. Magomedov is 5-3 and has been stopped by better men. The counter is the quality of opposition; Rowston has not faced a Strickland or a Borralho, and Magomedov’s ranking is earned.
Momentum and an unbeaten Octagon record at even money is the better side of this number.
FREE PICK: Cam Rowston at +100.
UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
Why Bet on Dawson?
12-2-1 since graduating from the first season of the Contender Series, and he answered a first-round stoppage loss to Manuel Torres last December com um dominant submission win over Mateusz Rebecki.
That is a fighter who responded to his worst night with his most convincing one.
Why Bet on Aliev?
12-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC. Nobody has beaten him anywhere.
UFC’s own assessment is unusually frank: his grinding, low-action wrestling has been “dominant, but far from aesthetically pleasing” and has not moved him up the division as fast as the results suggest it should.
Final Betting Analysis: Dawson vs. Aliev
Two high-level grapplers at -125 and +105, which means this comes down to who imposes it.
Aliev is undefeated, and Dawson has been stopped. But Dawson has the better submission threat, the longer body of work, and the more recent emphatic performance.
A fight between two wrestlers usually goes to the one who can finish.
FREE PICK: Grant Dawson by submission.
UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
Why Bet on Thicknesse?
Two straight decision wins, over Josias Musasa and Vince Morales, after dropping a short-notice debut to Aleksandre Topuria.
He has three UFC appearances and his opponent has none. Chopurov is the only fighter on this card making his promotional debut, and Octagon experience is worth something.
Why Bet on Chopurov?
Eleven straight wins to open his professional career, including a title and two successful defences under the UAE Warriors banner.
And the detail that matters: he is a training partner of Petr Yan. Preparing alongside the bantamweight champion is the best possible preparation for this division.
Final Betting Analysis: Thicknesse vs. Chopurov
-550 on a fighter who has never walked to the Octagon is a very large number.
It is also a defensible one. Eleven unbeaten, a regional title with two defences, and Yan’s camp behind him. Chopurov is the kind of signing the promotion brings in, expecting a run.
Thicknesse at +400 is the price of three UFC fights against zero, and he has not been finished in the promotion.
FREE PICK: Asaf Chopurov by TKO. No stake at -550.
UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Why Bet on Vagaev?
25-4 for his career, and he won his debut in this same arena in July with a decision over fellow Russian Saygid Izagakmaev.
He is the fresher fighter with the longer record.
Why Bet on Malkoun?
Back-to-back decision wins over Torrez Finney and Gerald Meerschaert, the latter being the man who holds the UFC middleweight records for submissions and finishes. Malkoun is 6-2 over his last eight.
And the structural point: Vagaev is moving up to middleweight for this fight. Malkoun has lived at 185 for years.
Final Betting Analysis: Vagaev vs. Malkoun
-190 on a fighter changing weight class in his second UFC appearance is the kind of price that gets corrected after the fight.
Vagaev’s 25-4 is real, and almost all of it came elsewhere. Malkoun is a divisional stalwart who has beaten two UFC veterans in a row since returning from a two-year layoff.
FREE PICK: Jacob Malkoun at +160.
UFC 333: Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos
Por que apostar na Oki?
He is dropping to featherweight after five starts at lightweight, and a weight class he should have been in all along is the simplest fix available to a struggling fighter.
The reason he needed it: consecutive stoppage losses. That is the whole case and the whole concern.
Por que apostar no Santos?
2-1 since moving to featherweight, and the one defeat earned Fight of the Night. Ele perdeu para DooHo Choi in May in a fight good enough to be rewarded.
He fights out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima, and UFC’s preview calls this bout “an early contender for Fight of the Night.”
Final Betting Analysis: Oki vs. Santos
A fighter coming off two stoppage defeats, changing division, against an all-action Brazilian who just won a bonus in a loss.
-130 is a short price on Santos, and it should be shorter. Oki’s drop to featherweight may well work, but the evidence for it does not exist yet, and the evidence against him is two finishes in a row.
FREE PICK: Daniel Santos by decision.
UFC 333: Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon
Why Bet on Steele?
A heel hook submission of Dom Mar Fan inside four minutes in May, and before that a Luta da Noite in his promotional debut against Rongzhu.
Two UFC appearances, one bonus and one finish; it is a strong start, and he has already been through a war at this level.
Why Bet on Gugnon?
A 100% finishing rate, maintained with an 81-second submission of Milos Janicic on his August debut in Belgrade.
Every professional win has come inside the distance. That is the most striking single fact in this bout.
Final Betting Analysis: Steele vs. Gugnon
Both men are coming off first-round submission wins, which is a rare symmetry and tells you this will not go long.
-155 and +130 reflect experience rather than ability. Steele has two Octagon fights and a bonus; Gugnon has one and a perfect finishing record.
Steele has been in deep water and come out. Gugnon has never needed to.
FREE PICK: Kody Steele by submission.
UFC 333: Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari
Why Bet on Lucindo?
She has won five of her last six and is somehow unranked. UFC’s own preview flags it as surprising.
The most recent of those wins was over Angela Hill in August 2025, which is also the problem: she has not fought since.
Why Bet on Caliari?
A third-round submission of Shauna Bannon in May, which arrested the start of her UFC career, in which she lost her first two appearances.
Her opponent has been inactive for fourteen months. Caliari fought five months ago.
Final Betting Analysis: Lucindo vs. Caliari
-350 is a big number on a fighter returning from more than a year out, and the layoff is the only real argument against her.
Five wins from six against UFC opposition, including Angela Hill, is a clearly better body of work than two defeats and one submission win. Lucindo should be ranked and is not.
FREE PICK: Iasmin Lucindo by decision. No stake at -350.
Resumo das Escolhas Grátis
| Lutar | Escolha | Jogar? |
|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Volkanovski by decision | Reduced stake — true coin flip |
| Yan vs. Dvalishvili | Yan by decision | Nenhuma linha publicada |
| Kavanagh vs. Temirov | Kavanagh by decision | Sim |
| Volkov vs. Kuniev | Volkov by decision | Participação reduzida |
| Pico vs. Keita | Pico by decision | Sim |
| Murzakanov vs. Reyes | Murzakanov by TKO | Sim |
| Krylov vs. Yakhyaev | Yakhyaev by TKO | Krylov +350 is the card’s best longshot |
| Magomedov vs. Rowston | Rowston at +100 | Melhor custo-benefício do cartão |
| Dawson vs. Aliev | Dawson by submission | Sim |
| Thicknesse vs. Chopurov | Chopurov by TKO | No stake at -550 |
| Vagaev vs. Malkoun | Malkoun at +160 | Sim |
| Oki vs. Santos | Santos by decision | Sim |
| Steele vs. Gugnon | Steele by submission | Sim |
| Lucindo vs. Caliari | Lucindo by decision | Sem aposta em -350 |
Our strongest position is Cam Rowston at +100. Three from three in the UFC on a seven-fight winning streak, priced level with a man who is 5-3 in the promotion.
Our second is Jacob Malkoun at +160, against an opponent moving up a weight class in his second Octagon appearance.
Our strongest fades are Chopurov at -550 and Lucindo at -350, two correct sides at prices that leave nothing for the risk.
Visão geral final do cartão
Two title fights, and the one at the top cannot be priced.
-110 on both sides of a featherweight championship is as close to an admission of ignorance as a sportsbook will offer, and the fight deserves it. Volkanovski is chasing a ninth defence and a divisional record. Evloev is 20-0 with ten straight UFC wins and no finishes at all. One of those profiles ends on Saturday.
The co-main may be the better fight.Yan held Dvalishvili to two takedowns on twenty-nine attempts last December (a defensive performance with almost no precedent at bantamweight) after Dvalishvili had beaten him comfortably in 2023 and then won fourteen in a row. Both men have an explanation for their defeat, and both have had ten months to act on it.
The main card is three pick’ems deep. Kavanagh-Temirov at -105/-115, Volkov-Kuniev at -120/+100, Pico-Keita at -105/-115. Across the whole card, six bouts are priced within twenty cents of even money, and a seventh, the co-main, has no price at all.
And the prelims carry the card’s two most interesting prices.Nikita Krylov is a ranked light heavyweight with twenty-nine finishes in thirty-one wins, available at +350 against a man who knocked someone out in eight seconds. Cam Rowston is 3-0 in the UFC on a seven-fight run and priced at level money.
Set an alarm. Early prelims at 10:00 AM ET, prelims at noon, main card at two. Volkanovski and Evloev will walk in the early evening on the American East Coast, which, for a card of this quality, is a gift.
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