Last Updated on agosto 5, 2026 9:07 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC returns to the Apex on Saturday for a lightweight main event that the oddsmakers cannot separate. Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld opened at -110 apiece; a genuine pick’em over five rounds,
and the early money has been moving steadily toward the Australian.
That movement is the story. Gamrot is a top-10 ranked lightweight, a former KSW champion at two weights, and one of the most difficult outs in the division. Salkilld is 5-0 in the UFC since debuting last year and has looked like a future title challenger in every appearance. The market is telling you it believes the newcomer.
Eleven fights, a co-main between two veterans who will not fight a boring round, and Alexia Thainara continuing one of the fastest rises in the women’s strawweight division. Here is the full breakdown.
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UFC Fight Night Las Vegas: Fight Card Odds and Info
Mateusz Gamrot -110 Quillan Salkilld -110
Diego Ferreira -205 Billy Quarantillo +177
Yadier del Valle -325 Darren Elkins +263
Ty Miller -400 Billy Ray Goff +316
Steven Asplund -110 Guilherme Pat -110
Alexia Thainara -300 Amanda Lemos +245
Juliana Miller -190 Ravena Oliveira +165
Bruno Lopes -180 Diyar Nurgozhay +157
Louie Sutherland -155 Jose Montanha +135
Miles Johns -155 Jessie Rosas +135
Manoel Sousa -500 Richie Miranda +383
Quando?Saturday, August 8 — Main Card at 8:00 pm ET
Onde?Meta Apex, Enterprise, Nevada
Onde posso assistir?Paramount+
UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld
Por que apostar em Mateusz Gamrot?
Gamrot is one of the best lightweights in the world and has been for years. A former KSW champion at both featherweight and lightweight, he sits inside the UFC’s top 10 and arrives off a submission win over Esteban Ribovics.
The biggest advantage is his grappling. Gamrot’s wrestling is genuinely elite: chain takedowns, relentless top pressure, and the ability to drag a striker into deep water and keep him there. That skill set made him a nightmare matchup for the entire division, and it is exactly the tool set that beats a fighter who wants to keep things standing.
The second advantage is the distance. This is scheduled for five rounds. Salkilld has never been past the third in the UFC and has finished most of his opponents early. Gamrot has been in championship rounds and knows what it takes to fight at that pace.
At -110 on a top-10 lightweight against an unranked opponent, the value is on the veteran.
Por que apostar em Quillan Salkilld?
Salkilld is 5-0 in the UFC and has looked better with every appearance. The 26-year-old from Perth was named the 2025 UFC.com Newcomer of the Year and has done nothing since to suggest the ranking was generous.
The biggest advantage is his finishing ability. He debuted with a 19-second knockout. He took a short-notice fight against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 321 and ended it with a first-round head kick. Haqparast had been finished only once in fifteen previous UFC appearances. He opened 2026 by knocking out Jamie Mularkey. He is 11-1 as a professional with ten straight wins.
The other factor is timing. Fighters on this trajectory tend to be ahead of where the market prices them, and the money moving toward him this week suggests sharp bettors agree.
Final Betting Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld
A true pick’em, and correctly priced.
The fight is a straightforward stylistic question. If Gamrot gets this to the mat and holds it there, he wins rounds and probably wins the fight. If Salkilld defends the takedown and keeps it standing, he can end it in any exchange.
Salkilld has not faced a wrestler of Gamrot’s calibre. Gamrot has not faced a striker with this kind of finishing rate at this stage of his career. Five rounds favour the veteran’s experience and cardio; the first two rounds favour the Australian’s power.
The line movement toward Salkilld is meaningful and reflects genuine belief in his ceiling. But at even money, backing a proven top-10 lightweight with elite wrestling against a fighter who has not yet been tested by one is the more defensible position.
UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo
Por que apostar em Diego Ferreira?
Ferreira is the more complete fighter, and the market has him at -205 for good reason. The Brazilian veteran brings a well-rounded game: competent striking, a legitimate submission threat, and enough experience against high-level lightweights to know how to manage a fight.
The biggest advantage is his skill set. Quarantillo is a pressure fighter who wants a brawl. Ferreira has the grappling to change the location of the fight whenever the standing exchanges stop going his way, and that optionality is worth a lot against a one-speed opponent.
Por que apostar em Billy Quarantillo?
Quarantillo has never been in a dull fight. The TUF alum comes forward relentlessly, throws volume, and drags opponents into the scrappy, high-pace contests that break game plans.
The biggest advantage is his pace and durability. Neither of these men is what he was in his prime, and in that scenario the fighter willing to make it ugly often has the edge. If Quarantillo can turn this into a fifteen-minute firefight, Ferreira’s technical superiority matters considerably less.
At +177 on a fighter with this style, that is a reasonable price.
Final Betting Analysis: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo
Both veterans are past their peaks, which usually makes for entertaining fights and unpredictable results.
Ferreira should win if he fights intelligently: use the grappling threat, avoid the phone-booth exchanges, take the decision. Quarantillo’s path is exactly what it has always been: pressure, volume, and refuse to let it become a technical contest.
Ferreira is the correct favourite. But do not expect it to be comfortable, and do not expect it to reach the judges quietly.
UFC Fight Night: Yadier del Valle vs. Darren Elkins
Por que apostar em Yadier del Valle?
Del Valle is a -325 favourite, and the reason is age and trajectory. He is the younger, fresher, more athletic fighter in a matchup against one of the most weathered veterans on the roster.
The biggest advantage is speed. Elkins has taken an enormous amount of damage across a long UFC career, and the one thing that consistently troubles him now is a faster opponent who can hit him before he closes distance. Del Valle has that.
Por que apostar em Darren Elkins?
Darren Elkins has built an entire career on being impossible to finish and impossible to discourage. “The Damage” has won fights he had no business winning, coming back from positions where most fighters would have been stopped.
The biggest advantage is exactly that quality. Elkins does not stop coming forward, does not fold when he is hurt, and has beaten more talented opponents by simply refusing to go away. At +263, you are betting on a phenomenon rather than a skill set.
Final Betting Analysis: Yadier del Valle vs. Darren Elkins
Del Valle should win, and the price reflects it accurately.
The Elkins comeback is one of the great recurring stories in the sport, and it has happened often enough that disregarding it entirely is unwise. But there is a stage in a veteran’s career where durability finally runs out, and every indicator suggests Elkins is at that point.
Del Valle by decision or late stoppage is the expected outcome.
UFC Fight Night: Ty Miller vs. Billy Ray Goff
Por que apostar em Ty Miller?
At -400, Miller is one of the heaviest favourites on the card. He is the more technically sound welterweight, and the market clearly sees a significant gap in ability.
The biggest advantage is his control of range and pace. Miller does not get dragged into messy fights, picks his moments, and lands the cleaner strikes in exchanges. Against an opponent priced this far out, that discipline is usually enough on its own.
Por que apostar em Billy Ray Goff?
Goff is a welterweight with real power, and welterweight is a division where power evens things out quickly.
The biggest advantage is that he only needs one moment. At +316, he does not have to win rounds or out-technique anyone; he needs one clean connection in a division where 170-pound fighters end fights regularly.
Final Betting Analysis: Ty Miller vs. Billy Ray Goff
Miller is the correct favourite and should control most of this fight.
Goff’s path is short and violent. If he cannot land something significant early, Miller’s technique should take over and turn this into a comfortable win.
Expect Miller. But -400 is a steep price to lay on any welterweight fight.
UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat
Por que apostar em Steven Asplund?
A -110 pick’em at heavyweight, which is the market openly admitting it has no idea.
Asplund’s case is the standard heavyweight case: he has the power to end the fight at any moment, and in a division where nobody’s chin is reliable, that is the only advantage that consistently matters.
Por que apostar em Guilherme Pat?
Identical logic in the opposite direction. Pat is priced at -110 because he carries the same threat.
The biggest advantage for either man is landing first. There is no meaningful technical separation here, no obvious stylistic edge, and no reason to think this goes long.
Final Betting Analysis: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat
Two heavyweights at even money is the least predictable fight on the card, and it is unlikely to see the final horn.
There is no value in either side at -110 because there is no information advantage to be had. Watch it for the violence rather than the ticket.
UFC Fight Night: Alexia Thainara vs. Amanda Lemos
Por que apostar em Alexia Thainara?
Thainara is one of the fastest-rising fighters in the sport and a -300 favourite over a former title challenger, which tells you how highly she is rated.
The Brazilian needed just two UFC appearances to reach the strawweight top 15: a first-round submission of Molly McCann in London, then a unanimous decision over Loma Lookboonmee in Perth. She is 13-1 with an eleven-fight win streak, and her only loss came years ago.
The biggest advantage is her composure. Thainara has looked like a veteran inside the Octagon from her debut, playing to her strengths and navigating difficult assignments without wasted energy. Against an opponent who has been in deeper waters but has more mileage, that poise is the deciding factor.
Por que apostar em Amanda Lemos?
Lemos has fought for a UFC title. That experience does not evaporate, and she has faced a level of competition Thainara has not yet approached.
The biggest advantage is her power. Lemos hits genuinely hard for the division and has finished opponents who were supposed to outclass her. At +245 against a fighter with only two UFC appearances, the veteran price is generous.
Her path requires making this physical early and testing whether Thainara’s composure holds against someone who can actually hurt her.
Final Betting Analysis: Alexia Thainara vs. Amanda Lemos
This is the most interesting fight on the card outside the main event.
Thainara has been outstanding, and the -300 price reflects genuine belief that she is a future contender. But two UFC fights is a small sample, and Lemos is a significant step up from McCann and Lookboonmee.
Thainara should win. Her technique, activity, and tranquility have been excellent. But +245 on a former title challenger with knockout power is the best underdog value on this card.
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Ravena Oliveira
Por que apostar em Juliana Miller?
Miller is favoured at -190 and brings the more established Octagon experience of the two. The TUF winner has been in the promotion long enough to understand what UFC pace feels like, which matters more than people assume against a fighter still adjusting to it.
The biggest advantage is her grappling and top control. Miller wins fights by getting opponents down and staying there, and that is a route to victory that does not depend on winning striking exchanges.
Por que apostar em Ravena Oliveira?
Oliveira at +165 is the live underdog in a fight the market sees as competitive rather than lopsided.
The biggest advantage is freshness. Oliveira comes in without the wear that a longer UFC run brings, and if she can keep this fight standing and force Miller to strike with her, the picture changes considerably.
Final Betting Analysis: Juliana Miller vs. Ravena Oliveira
A -190/+165 line means the market sees a genuine contest with a modest lean.
Miller’s grappling gives her the clearer path and the more reliable win condition. Oliveira needs takedown defence to hold up for fifteen minutes, which is a lot to ask.
Take Miller, but the underdog price is fair.
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
Por que apostar em Bruno Lopes?
Lopes is a -180 favourite and the more physically imposing fighter in the matchup. The Brazilian brings pressure and power, and the market sees him as the one more likely to dictate where this fight happens.
The biggest advantage is his aggression. Lopes fights forward, forces opponents to react, and does not allow technical fighters to settle into a rhythm.
Por que apostar no Diyar Nurgozhay?
Nurgozhay at +157 is priced as a credible threat rather than an afterthought.
The biggest advantage is his serenity under pressure. Fighters from the Central Asian grappling tradition tend to handle aggression well, absorbing the initial surge and then taking over as the pace drops. If Lopes empties the tank in round one, Nurgozhay is well placed to win the last two.
Final Betting Analysis: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
A reasonably close matchup with a stylistic question at its centre; pressure versus patience.
Lopes should be the more dangerous fighter early. Nurgozhay is the better bet if this reaches the third round.
Lean Lopes, but with genuine respect for the underdog price.
UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. Jose Montanha
Por que apostar em Louie Sutherland?
Sutherland is a modest -155 favourite in one of the tighter matchups on the card. He is the sharper striker and should have the edge in any exchange that stays at range.
The biggest advantage is his precision. In a fight the market sees as close, the more accurate fighter usually accumulates the small margins that decide rounds.
Why Bet on Jose Montanha?
Montanha at +135 is barely an underdog, and that price tells you the oddsmakers see a live fight.
The biggest advantage is his durability and readiness to engage. Montanha does not fold under pressure and is comfortable in the kind of grinding fight that neutralises a cleaner striker.
Final Betting Analysis: Louie Sutherland vs. Jose Montanha
Close to a coin flip with a slight lean.
Sutherland wins if he manages distance and keeps this clean. Montanha wins if he makes it messy.
Marginal edge to Sutherland, and neither side offers real value at these numbers.
UFC Fight Night: Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas
Por que apostar em Miles Johns?
Johns is a -155 favourite with legitimate one-punch power at bantamweight: a rarer commodity at 135 pounds than at any superior category.
The biggest advantage is his ability to end a fight from nowhere. Johns does not need to build a lead or win a grappling battle. He needs one clean shot, and he has the timing to find it.
Why Bet on Jessie Rosas?
Rosas at +135 is a live underdog in a division where volume and activity generally beat power over three rounds.
The biggest advantage is pace. If Rosas can outwork Johns, keep the exchanges brief, and avoid standing in front of him, the scorecards are very reachable.
Final Betting Analysis: Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas
The classic bantamweight question: power against output.
Johns has the better single weapon. Rosas has the better path to a decision. At -155 and +135, the market is close to neutral, and so we are.
Slight lean to Johns on the knockout equity, but this is a fight to watch rather than back heavily.
FC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda
Why Bet on Manoel Sousa?
At -500, Sousa is the heaviest favourite on the entire card. The market sees a substantial gap in ability and is pricing accordingly.
The biggest advantage is that he is expected to be better everywhere: striking, grappling, and pace. Favourites at this number are usually being brought in to win, and the matchmaking reflects that.
Why Bet on Richie Miranda?
Miranda at +383 is the longest price on the card, and the entire case is that MMA produces upsets at exactly these numbers with some regularity.
The biggest advantage is that he has nothing to lose. A fighter written off this heavily can fight with complete freedom, and that occasionally produces the performance of a career.
Final Betting Analysis: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda
Sousa should win and should win convincingly.
There is no value backing a -500 favourite and very little logic in the underdog beyond hope. Miranda needs something to go dramatically his way in the opening five minutes.
Expect Sousa, likely inside the distance.
Final Card Outlook
The main event is the reason to watch. A genuine pick’em between a top-10 veteran with elite wrestling and an undefeated Australian who has finished nearly everyone in front of him is exactly the kind of fight that makes or ends a contender.
For value, Amanda Lemos at +245 is the strongest underdog play on the card. A former title challenger with real power against a fighter with two UFC appearances is a price worth taking, even against someone as impressive as Thainara has been.
For entertainment, Ferreira against Quarantillo will not be boring, and the heavyweight pick’em between Asplund and Pat is unlikely to reach the judges.
And keep an eye on Salkilld regardless of the result. Win or lose, a 26-year-old at 5-0 in the UFC headlining against a top-10 opponent is a fighter the division will be dealing with for years.
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