New England Patriots Betting Odds

Last Updated on September 30, 2026 7:26 am by Allen

Team Overview

The Patriots are coming off one of the most dramatic turnarounds in recent NFL history, going 14-3 and winning the AFC East in Mike Vrabel’s first season before falling to Seattle 29-13 in Super Bowl 60. Quarterback Drake Maye took a massive second-year leap into MVP-runner-up territory, and the front office doubled down this offseason by trading a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder to Philadelphia for star wide receiver A.J. Brown, reuniting him with Vrabel from their Tennessee days.

With Vrabel and Maye both back and the roster upgraded rather than broken up, New England enters 2026 as a legitimate AFC contender locked in a two-team race with Buffalo for the AFC East.

Offensive Line Analysis

New England returns four of five starters from a line that jumped from last in the league in offensive line impact score in 2024 to 12th in 2025, headlined by second-year left tackle Will Campbell and veteran right tackle Morgan Moses. The lone new starter is free-agent addition Alijah Vera-Tucker at left guard, which allowed 2025 third-round pick Jared Wilson to slide over to center after Garrett Bradbury was traded to Chicago, giving the Patriots real continuity up front for the first time in years.

Defensive Line Analysis

Interior tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore return as one of the better defensive tackle tandems in the league, and the Patriots added depth on the edge with free agent Dre’Mont Jones and second-round rookie Gabe Jacas to pair with returning veteran Harold Landry III. It’s a group built to keep pace with an offense that’s now carrying real Super Bowl expectations, rather than needing to steal games on its own.

2026 NFL Season

Week 4

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Sunday, October 4 | 1:00 PM ET | New Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

New England is a road underdog, priced at +235 on the moneyline against Buffalo’s -290, with the Bills favored by 6.5 points and the total set at 48.5. The Patriots face an unbeaten Bills team playing its best football of the season, a tough ask for an offense that’s scored just 6 points in its last outing.

A get-right spot on paper looks unlikely against Buffalo’s 3-0 team, especially with New England’s receiving corps still thin.

Week 3 Recap

Patriots 6, Jaguars 35 | Sunday, September 27 | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

New England’s offense had no answers, as Jacksonville generated pressure on 58.4% of Drake Maye’s dropbacks, the third-highest rate he’s faced in his career, and rookie Travis Hunter picked off Maye for his first NFL interception. The lopsided loss dropped the Patriots to 1-2 as the offense continues to search for answers without A.J. Brown.

Week 3

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday, September 27 | 1:00 PM ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

New England is a road underdog, priced at +130 on the moneyline against Jacksonville’s -155, with the Jaguars favored by 3 points and the total set at 44.5. Jacksonville is coming off its first loss of the season, a 20-13 defeat at Denver that snapped a nine-game winning streak, giving the Patriots a motivated opponent looking to get back on track.

Both teams are coming off very different kinds of bounce-back opportunities, New England off a statement defensive win and Jacksonville off its first stumble of the year.

Week 2 Recap

Patriots 20, Steelers 3 | Sunday, September 20 | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

New England bounced back in a big way, holding Pittsburgh to just 3 points, the second-fewest allowed in any Aaron Rodgers start of his career. Rodgers finished with 187 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception, while the Patriots defense set the tone in a rebound win that moved New England to 1-1 without A.J. Brown.

Week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots | Sunday, September 20 | 1:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

New England is favored at home, priced at -245 on the moneyline against Pittsburgh’s +200, with the Patriots favored by 5.5 points and the total set at 43.5. The line comes with an asterisk: New England will be without A.J. Brown for at least the next month, leaving Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins as the top targets for Drake Maye after a turnover-plagued opener.

A get-right spot on paper against a beatable Steelers team, but the first real test of how this offense functions without its new No. 1 receiver.

Week 1 Recap

Patriots 10, Seahawks 13 | Wednesday, September 9 | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

New England led 10-0 into the second half of the season-opening Super Bowl rematch before Drake Maye threw three fourth-quarter interceptions and Seattle’s defense set up two late Drew Lock-led scoring drives to steal a 13-10 win. Star wide receiver A.J. Brown, in his Patriots debut, exited in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain and was placed on injured reserve two days later, ruled out for at least four games.

Week 1

Patriots at Seattle Seahawks | Wednesday, September 9 | 8:20 PM ET | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

New England opens the season with a Super Bowl 60 rematch, entering as a road underdog priced at +175 on the moneyline against Seattle’s -210, with Seattle favored by 4 and the total set at 44.5 points. The Seahawks enter having lost Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III in free agency, narrowing the gap between these two teams since February.

A measuring-stick opener against the defending champs on their own turf is a tough way to start, but it’s also the Patriots’ first chance to show last year’s run was no fluke.

Odds to Win Division and Super Bowl

Odds to Win AFC East: +130

Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2000

Predictions

Overall Record: The Patriots are projected to finish around 12-5, given the continuity on both sides of the ball.

Playoff Chances: Among the safer bets in the conference to return to the postseason

Super Bowl Chances: A legitimate contender, running just behind Buffalo in the AFC East pecking order

New England has the quarterback, the receiver room, and the coaching continuity to make another deep run, even with a noticeably tougher schedule than last season. Expect the Patriots to be in the thick of the AFC East race all year, with a real shot at getting back to the Super Bowl if the defense holds up its end.