Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds

Last Updated on October 27, 2026 9:02 am by Henry

Team Overview

The Falcons open a new era in 2026 under head coach Kevin Stefanski. He arrived from Cleveland with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. The roster he inherited holds one of the more talented skill groups in the NFC. Atlanta also doubled down on that core in August. Bijan Robinson signed a $75 million extension, the richest ever for a running back. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are both back, alongside a heavily rebuilt receiver room.

Quarterback, however, has been the problem. Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL in Week 11 last season and needed surgery. Tua Tagovailoa, signed for the league minimum after Miami released him, won the job in training camp. Then an oblique injury in practice sidelined him before Week 1. As a result, Cooper Rush started the first two games, and Atlanta lost both. Penix finally returns as the starter in Week 3. The Falcons have not reached the postseason since 2017. After an 8-9 finish, the market is not convinced this is the year that changes.

Offensive Line Analysis

This is the most stable unit on the roster, and now the most heavily coached one. Atlanta hired Bill Callahan to run the group. Meanwhile, Matthew Bergeron locked up a $96 million extension at the start of August. Jake Matthews anchors the left side, while Chris Lindstrom remains one of the best guards in football. Ryan Neuzil holds the center job after growing into it over two seasons. The complication, however, is scheme rather than personnel. Stefanski and Rees are installing a wide zone and gap mix. Their quarterbacks also line up under center far more often than in 2025. That changes footwork and timing across the front. So far the run blocking has held up, producing 157 yards against Carolina. Pass protection has been shakier, with seven sacks allowed in two games. Experience should shorten the transition, although right tackle is still unsettled.

Defensive Line Analysis

Atlanta finished second in the NFL with 57 sacks in 2025. That pass rush, however, is now gutted. Jalon Walker tore his ACL in an August 4 practice and will miss the season. He was the versatile edge piece Jeff Ulbrich planned to build his fronts around. James Pearce Jr. led the group as a rookie with 10.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Yet he opened this year facing a possible league suspension. Behind them sits Leonard Floyd and very little else. Through two games, the front has produced just four sacks. This unit was the defense’s entire identity, so it remains the biggest reason to fade Atlanta in September.

2026 NFL Season

Week 1

Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | Sunday, September 13 | 1:00 PM ET | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

Atlanta opens as a road underdog at +116 on the moneyline. Pittsburgh sits at -136, with the spread at 2.5 points and the total at 41.5. The number has drifted toward the Falcons since May, when Pittsburgh opened at -3 with a 42.5 total. Both quarterback rooms carry questions. Aaron Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh on a one-year deal under new head coach Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, Atlanta expects to start Tagovailoa without ever holding a real competition.

Subplots run deeper than the number suggests. For example, Stefanski went 6-6 against Pittsburgh across six seasons in Cleveland. Ulbrich also overlapped with Rodgers in New York, with little love lost. Still, Atlanta lacks the one thing that would swing this game. Pressure beats Rodgers, and a front without Walker, and possibly without Pearce, is a poor match for that job.

Week 1 Recap

Atlanta lost 20-13 in Pittsburgh, and the quarterback question got worse before kickoff. An oblique injury sidelined Tua Tagovailoa, so Cooper Rush made the Week 1 start. He finished 12 of 22 for 143 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, a 51.9 rating. Pittsburgh also sacked him four times for 25 yards. Still, the Falcons led 7-3 after the first quarter on a 23-yard touchdown catch by Bijan Robinson. A 51-yard Nick Folk field goal then kept them within 13-10 entering the fourth.

Then T.J. Watt ended it. Fifteen seconds into the fourth quarter, he picked off Rush and returned it 35 yards for a touchdown. That pushed the Pittsburgh Steelers ahead 20-10, and the Falcons never recovered. The more damning number is that this offense did not run a single red-zone play all afternoon. In fact, its only touchdown came from 23 yards out. Folk also missed two of four field goal attempts, and Atlanta committed nine penalties for 96 yards. Finally, 31 carries produced 120 yards without a rushing score.

The defensive concern showed up exactly as expected. Without Jalon Walker, Atlanta managed two sacks and six quarterback hits. The Falcons never forced Aaron Rodgers into a turnover, and he finished 24 of 41 for 221 yards. He also found Pat Freiermuth for a touchdown. To its credit, the front forced four three-and-outs and stopped Pittsburgh twice on fourth down. What it lacked was the closing speed that turned pressure into sacks a year ago. Atlanta returns home in Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers, a game the market sees as a coin flip.

Week 2

Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, September 20 | 1:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Atlanta opens as a narrow home favorite at -116 on the moneyline, with Carolina at -102. The spread sits at 1.5 points and the total at 43.5. That is the tightest spread on the entire Week 2 board. Both teams come in at 0-1, and neither gave oddsmakers much to work with. The Panthers surrendered 59 points at home to Chicago while scoring 37 of their own. Meanwhile, the Falcons managed 13 in Pittsburgh and never ran a play inside the red zone.

The total is the most revealing number here. Carolina just played in a 96-point game, yet the market still set this at 43.5. In other words, oddsmakers view the Falcons offense as the drag, not the Carolina defense as fixed. Atlanta’s quarterback situation will move this line all week. Tua Tagovailoa is working back from an oblique injury, while Cooper Rush comes off a two-interception afternoon. Division games also carry the tiebreakers that decided this race a year ago. So an 0-2 start here would be worse than the record suggests.

Week 2 Recap

Atlanta lost 34-3 at home to the Carolina Panthers, and the first snap set the tone. Cooper Rush fumbled on a scramble on the opening play. He later threw two interceptions and finished 10 of 17 for 86 yards. Kevin Stefanski benched him in the third quarter with the Falcons trailing 27-3. Undrafted rookie Jack Strand then entered to the loudest cheer of the afternoon. However, his first NFL pass bounced off a receiver’s hands, and Devin Lloyd returned it for a touchdown. No Falcons quarterback had thrown a pick-six on his first career pass since Brett Favre in 1991.

The numbers are as bad as the scoreline. Atlanta turned the ball over five times, with three interceptions and two lost fumbles. Its quarterbacks also combined for a 28.8 passer rating. For the second straight week, the offense did not run a single play inside the red zone. The only points came on a 41-yard Nick Folk field goal just before halftime. The run game was the lone bright spot, producing 157 yards at 4.9 per carry behind Bijan Robinson. Still, it never mattered once Carolina led by three scores.

Defensively, the Falcons actually held Carolina to 68 rushing yards and generated eight quarterback hits. What they could not do was stop Bryce Young through the air. He threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns with a 116.3 rating. Two of those scores went to Darren Waller, and Xavier Legette got loose for a 55-yard catch. Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa watched from the sideline in street clothes. A day later, Stefanski named Penix the starter for Thursday in Green Bay.

Week 3

Falcons at Green Bay Packers | Thursday, September 24 | 8:15 PM ET | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Atlanta opened as a touchdown underdog on Thursday Night Football. The Green Bay Packers sat at -7 and -325 on the moneyline against the Falcons’ +260. The total opened at 44.5. Since then, the spread has dipped to 6.5 at several books. Green Bay is 1-1 after an overtime win over the Jets and plays its first home game. Atlanta, meanwhile, arrives at 0-2 with 16 points in eight quarters.

The quarterback news is the story of the week. On Monday, Stefanski named Michael Penix Jr. the starter. It will be his first start since he tore his left ACL last November. That is a clear upgrade over Cooper Rush, who threw four interceptions in two starts. However, a short week is a tough setting for a quarterback coming back from knee surgery. Green Bay has its own concern with Jordan Love. A hit to the elbow against New York left his throwing hand numb. If Love is fine and Atlanta still cannot reach the red zone, even a touchdown cushion will not be enough.

Week 3 Recap

Atlanta stunned Green Bay 35-14 at Lambeau Field on Thursday night. Although the Falcons arrived as 4.5-point underdogs, they never trailed after halftime. Possession was the decisive factor, because Atlanta held the ball for 37:05 against 22:55.

Michael Penix Jr., back from ACL surgery, completed 17 of 20 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson carried 29 times for 194 yards and two scores. His bursts of 55 and 31 yards cracked the game open. Drake London added nine catches for 194 yards, including grabs of 68 and 40.

Defensively, the Falcons smothered Green Bay’s ground game to 17 yards on nine carries. Atlanta finished with 498 total yards to 328. Still, the secondary is thin, since A.J. Terrell Jr. remains on injured reserve. Thursday’s result moves the Falcons to 1-2, one game behind Carolina and New Orleans in the NFC South.

Week 4

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Monday, October 5 | 8:15 PM ET | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

A division road trip follows, and it lands in prime time. New Orleans sat at 1-1 entering Week 3 after upsetting Baltimore 24-17. Through two games, Tyler Shough led the NFL with 662 passing yards and four touchdowns. Chris Olave has been the engine, catching 18 passes for 268 yards. Because of that, the Saints rank second in the league at 305.5 passing yards per game.

Two angles stand out. Atlanta just gashed a strong front for 194 rushing yards from one back. New Orleans, by contrast, has been winning through the air. Still, the Saints’ defense held Baltimore to 17 points in Week 2. Whether Penix sustains anything near his 85 percent completion rate should decide this one. That answer comes under the Superdome lights.

Week 4 Recap

Atlanta ran over New Orleans 45-24 on Monday night at the Caesars Superdome. The Falcons scored five rushing touchdowns, matching a franchise record. That ground attack, rather than anything else, settled the evening early.

Bijan Robinson carried 19 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns. After just three plays, his 59-yard run set the tone. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson added 62 yards and three scores on 14 carries. Michael Penix Jr. completed 15 of 20 passes for 223 yards. However, his lone touchdown throw travelled 31 yards to Jahan Dotson. Drake London led the receivers with 96 yards on five catches.

Defensively, the Falcons held New Orleans to 50 rushing yards. Moreover, C.J. Henderson posted 10 tackles and forced a fumble. Atlanta also outgained the Saints 420 yards to 320. At 2-2, the Falcons now tie Carolina atop the NFC South. Still, two starters went down, because Jake Matthews hurt his groin and Za’Darius Smith left with a concussion.

Week 5

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, October 11 | 8:20 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Baltimore visits at 3-1, having just held off Tennessee 24-18 at home. Lamar Jackson completed 15 of 20 passes for 222 yards and two scores. However, he left after two quarters with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Zay Flowers caught six passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. Still, the Ravens lost four starters during that win.

Baltimore is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total at 46.5. Jackson’s ankle is the swing factor, because his availability remains uncertain. Atlanta, meanwhile, just ran for 205 yards against a division rival. However, Matthews and Smith both left Monday’s game early. Protection and edge depth therefore decide how long this stays close. Another prime-time kickoff should suit the Falcons.

Week 5 Recap

Atlanta lost 30-23 in overtime to Baltimore on Sunday night. The Falcons led by eight inside the final three minutes. However, they could not close it, because Baltimore tied the game with a touchdown and a two-point conversion.

Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 32 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts Sr. caught that score from 13 yards out. Drake London led the receivers with 118 yards on seven catches. Bijan Robinson ran 17 times for 86 yards. Still, the ground game never broke this one open.

Defensively, Jessie Bates III returned a fumble 36 yards for his first career touchdown. Even so, Tyler Huntley threw for 201 yards while filling in for Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry then ground out 102 rushing yards. At 2-3, Atlanta trails Carolina in the NFC South. Worse still, Penix hurt his ribs late, and Tua Tagovailoa finished in overtime.

Week 6

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, October 18 | 1:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Chicago arrives at 3-2, having just lost 31-7 at Green Bay. The Bears turned the ball over five times there. Moreover, they gained only 246 total yards. Tyson Bagent has started the past two games, because a hamstring strain has sidelined Chicago’s starter since Week 2. Still, Bagent won his first start 23-12 against the Jets.

Quarterback health frames this one on both sides. Penix says he expects to play, although the Falcons want more imaging first. Meanwhile, Chicago’s starter is pushing to return from that hamstring. Turnover margin therefore looks like the cleanest edge available. Atlanta also ran for 205 yards in New Orleans two weeks ago. A fast start would spare the Falcons another late collapse.

Week 6 Recap

Atlanta lost 31-23 to Chicago at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. The Falcons trailed 31-7 before they ever threatened. Special teams built that hole, because two lost fumbles on returns handed Chicago short fields.

Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 33 passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts Sr. caught two of those scores. Jahan Dotson took the third from 13 yards out. However, Bijan Robinson managed only 61 yards on nine carries. Drake London also finished without a touchdown, despite 10 targets.

Defensively, the Falcons never slowed Caleb Williams, who completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards. Moreover, Kyler Gordon sacked Penix three times and forced two fumbles. At 2-4, Atlanta sits third in the NFC South behind Carolina. Worse still, an inside linebacker left on a cart with a neck injury.

Week 7

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, October 25 | 1:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

San Francisco is 6-0 after beating Washington 23-17 on Monday night. Brock Purdy completed 21 of 29 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey ran for two short scores. Moreover, the defense sacked Jayden Daniels four times. Still, the 49ers let a 23-3 lead shrink late.

San Francisco is a 4.5-point road favorite, with the total at 50.5. That number reflects a gap Atlanta has to close quickly. Ball security comes first, because three fumbles went the other way on Sunday. However, the visitors just lost Mike Evans to an Achilles injury. McCaffrey will still test a run defense that leaked three rushing touchdowns. Even so, Atlanta did score 23 points after falling 31-7 behind. A fast start would change this matchup completely.

Week 7 Recap

Atlanta beat San Francisco 29-20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. That result ended the last unbeaten record in the NFC West. Four forced turnovers, rather than any scoring burst, decided the afternoon.

Michael Penix Jr. completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Nick Muse, Kyle Pitts Sr. and Drake London each caught one. London also led the receivers with 66 yards on seven catches. However, Bijan Robinson managed only 63 yards on 20 carries.

Defensively, the Falcons intercepted Brock Purdy twice and recovered two fumbles. Jessie Bates III took the first pick inside his own 10. Moreover, an inside linebacker claimed the second one and a late fumble. Za’Darius Smith also sacked Purdy on fourth down. At 3-4, Atlanta climbs to second in the NFC South.

Week 8

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Tampa Bay sits at 2-5, yet it just won 43-13 at Carolina. Baker Mayfield returned there after three games out. Moreover, Bucky Irving ran 24 times for 106 yards and two scores. The Buccaneers piled up 258 rushing yards in all. Still, they needed four takeaways to build that margin.

Atlanta is a 1.5-point road underdog, with the total at 45.5. Ball security travels well, because the Falcons forced four turnovers themselves. However, Tampa Bay’s ground game is the harder problem. Calijah Kancey also turned a strip-sack into a 32-yard touchdown. Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. has thrown six touchdowns in two weeks. A division road win would lift Atlanta into a genuine race.

Odds to Win Division and Super Bowl

NFC South: +310

Super Bowl: +8000

Predictions

Overall Record: The Falcons project to finish around 8-9, with the win total set at 7.5 and a slight lean to the over

Playoff Chances: Live in a weak division, but on the outside looking in without a healthy pass rush

Super Bowl Chances: A long shot priced near the bottom of the conference

Atlanta has enough offensive talent to win the NFC South. The division is also soft enough that eight or nine wins might be all it takes. The problem is what carried this team in 2025, because that pass rush no longer exists in the same form. Meanwhile, the new offense has not run a single red-zone play through two games. Penix now gets his chance to change that on a short week in Green Bay. The slow start was always likely against this opening schedule. Ultimately, the season hinges on Penix staying healthy and the pass rush finding a second threat.